The Cleveland Browns can't possibly spend two years amassing draft picks and salary-cap space only to screw up their rebuilding process by selecting Wyoming's Josh Allen at the top of the NFL draft.
The Allen hype train careened out of control in recent weeks with the quarterback reportedly becoming the Browns' (current) favorite target.
The draft cycle isn't set in stone from the beginning until the end. Opinions and preferences vacillate throughout the process as more information becomes available. Allen is merely the latest to occupy the top spot in numerous mock drafts.
What matters today may not even be close to what happens once the Browns are ready to make their selection. Yet the possibility of spending the first pick on a project when superior options are available is the height of draft coverage hysteria.
Allen is neither the top-rated quarterback prospect nor worthy of the first overall selection.
Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield, UCLA's Josh Rosen and USC's Sam Darnold should be driving the conversation, with one of them becoming the future face of the Browns organization. Aside from physical tools, Allen isn't better than those prospects in any specific area.
Full disclosure: A Bleacher Report article entitled "Meet Wyoming's Josh Allen: The Quarterback NFL Teams Have Been Waiting For" appeared in December 2016. At the time, the young man looked well on his way to becoming the first overall pick. However, I included a caveat at the end of the piece after fawning over Allen's arm talent, athleticism, pro-style system experience and competitiveness: "But the nuances in his game need improvement. If Allen does advance in these areas, he can overtake every other quarterback prospect to become the highest-selected signal-caller in the 2018 or '19 draft."
The disconnect in Allen's evaluation exists between being an outstanding physical talent while lacking polish.
"I've never seen anybody like him," former NFL quarterback and independent position coach Jordan Palmer, who handles both Allen and Darnold, told Cleveland.com's Mary Kay Cabot.
Palmer doubled down on the statement during an interview with MMQB's Tim Rohan by referring to Allen's talent and ability as "very, very unique."
At 6'5" and 233 pounds with exceptional arm strength, it's easy for anyone to fall in love with Allen's tangible traits, but Palmer's comments are hyperbolic.
Is Allen a big and athletic quarterback with top-shelf arm strength? Absolutely. This is not the same as being a unique athlete.
Too often organizations buy into the hype and become blinded by upside and potential. They're not actually looking at what a prospect does on a consistent basis. As a result, excuses are made to overlook Allen's shortcomings.
Supporting cast, systematic limitations and a lack of fundamentals are often cited when Allen's lackluster play is challenged. Some merit exists within each point, but not to an extent where his erratic overall accuracy, inconsistent ball placement, questionable decision-making and poor pocket presence are no longer issues—they clearly are.
Wyoming did lose its top receiver, leading rusher and starting center to the NFL between his redshirt sophomore and junior campaigns. The narrative is that the quarterback's 56.2 career completion percentage and lack of improvement over the last two seasons is due to a poor wide receiver group that couldn't get open or catch the ball.
At times, Allen's targets didn't play well. But his play didn't necessarily help his targets, either. According to Pro Football Focus' Sam Monson, the 21-year-old gunslinger had the lowest catchable pass rate among the top six quarterback prospects during the 2017 season:
Allen, meanwhile, experienced the lowest drop rate, per NDT Scouting's Benjamin Solak:
Accuracy is a funny thing. Completion percentage isn't the same as true accuracy. A quarterback's ball placement is far more indicative of his skill set when projecting to the next level. Did he lead the receiver? Did the target have to work to make the catch? Was the pass out and on time? Did the passer display touch in the right situations?
So much more goes into throwing the football than just completing a pass, but even that can be difficult for Allen.
The Firebaugh, California, native finished last or second-to-last among quarterbacks projected as first- or second-round prospects in aimed passes deemed catchable over the entire 2017 campaign, on third down and deep attempts, according to PFF's Tom Carter.
These are striking numbers when the other available talent is taken into consideration. Mayfield posted the two most efficient seasons in FBS history. Darnold is an anticipatory thrower with a penchant for completing difficult throws. Rosen is the most natural passer of them all.
"You can't coach accuracy," a personnel executive said of Allen, per NorthJersey.com's Art Stapleton. "You may think you can, but you can't. Period."
Wyoming's coaching staff, however, employed a pro-style scheme and didn't provide the two-year starter with many layups, or so everyone has been told.
PFF graded Allen the lowest in regards to NFL-caliber throws. Also, 30.7 percent of his passes fell within four yards of the line of scrimmage, per ESPN.com's Bill Barnwell. The number isn't the lowest among the top prospects: Louisville's Lamar Jackson attempted only 29.5 percent of his passes within the same range.
Narratives are tough to overcome until an individual is placed into the context of his class.
A comparison to the Philadelphia Eagles' Carson Wentz is often made because the two share similar backgrounds as late bloomers who weren't recruited out of high school only to play at the collegiate level for head coach Craig Bohl and offensive coordinator Brent Vigen.
"I think he's closer to Carson than he's not," Vigen told Bleacher Report.
What this doesn't account for is their differences entering the league and overall level of play. First, Wentz helped lead the North Dakota State Bison to a pair of FCS national championships and excelled against the best competition. Allen fell well short of the bar Wentz set, as draft analyst Benjamin Allbright noted:
Wentz was far more advanced in his understanding of pre- and post-snap reads upon entering the draft. Allen's recognition is still a work in progress.
"It seems like he doesn't have a plan and a process, and to get to the NFL level and to not be able to do the little things—if you can't do the little things, you can't do the big things," said Dan Orlovsky, who played 12 seasons with five NFL teams and now assesses young quarterbacks, per MMQB's Peter King. "The little things are your plan and your process. The big things are executing against what happens. And so it just seems like he doesn't have that as part of his DNA, as part of his quarterbacking."
At his core, Allen is a physically gifted developmental talent who struggles in key areas needed to succeed as a professional.
The quarterback's worthiness of being the first overall selection is only part of the equation. Is Allen even the right fit for the Browns? This is a far more important question.
Cleveland is in the best possible position to finally land a franchise quarterback, yet it would be Allen's worst possible landing spot.
Patience isn't a virtue for the Browns faithful or owner Jimmy Haslam.
Despite John Dorsey taking over as general manager, organizational stability has yet to be achieved. Hue Jackson may be nothing more than a lame-duck head coach since he had a hand in the evaluations that caused the Browns to pass on Wentz and Deshaun Watson. The coach also failed to develop Robert Griffin III, Cody Kessler, Kevin Hogan and DeShone Kizer. Dorsey may want to hire a coach of his choosing if the Browns don't experience a significant turnaround in Jackson's third season.
The coaching staff's preference toward a vertical offense may appear to be an ideal fit for Allen, yet he's not even close to being the class' best deep passer:
Not one quantifiable reason exists as to why the Browns should even consider Allen with the first overall pick beyond his size, a 4.75-second 40 time and the strongest available arm. Those are wonderful traits, but so much more goes into playing the game's most important position.
Overcorrecting does occur.
Once seen as an elite prospect until last season's performance, many begin to rail against Allen even if some value still exists. He has first-round tools. A team better equipped to develop him over the long term behind an established veteran signal-caller would be the perfect scenario.
Allen is a legitimate first-round talent, yet nothing suggests the Browns should even consider him once they're on the clock.
Brent Sobleski covers the NFL draft for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @brentsobleski.
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