The second-ranked and second-seeded Villanova Wildcats (29-4) will square off against the fifth-seeded Providence Friars (21-12) in Saturday's Big East tournament championship game at Madison Square Garden. The Friars already own a win over the Wildcats this season, upsetting them 76-71 as 9.5-point home underdogs in the most recent meeting on February 14.

College basketball point spread: The Wildcats opened as 12.5-point favorites; the total is at 149.5, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College basketball betting pick, via OddsShark computer:85.8-67.0, Wildcats (College basketball picks on every game)

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Why the Friars can cover the spread

Providence was able to do something even the top-seeded Xavier Musketeers were not able to accomplish this year as one of just four teams to beat Villanova. Coincidentally, the Friars also upset the third-ranked Musketeers 75-72 in overtime on Friday in the semifinals of the Big East tournament to get to this point, rallying from a 17-point deficit to pull off the victory as seven-point underdogs.

Even though Providence has dropped five of the past six meetings with the Wildcats straight up, according to the OddsShark College Basketball Database, the team has covered the spread in four of the last five.

Why the Wildcats can cover the spread

Villanova is playing like the top team in the country again with Phil Booth returning to form, as he has totaled 29 points in wins over the Marquette Golden Eagles and Butler Bulldogs in the past two games. Booth had scored just 33 points in the previous four games combined after coming back from a broken hand.

The Wildcats routed the sixth-seeded Butler Bulldogs 87-68 as 8.5-point favorites in the other semifinal matchup on Friday, building a 19-0 lead and never looking back, with all five starters scoring in double figures and each of them hitting two three-pointers or more.

Smart betting pick

You can make the argument that the Friars match up better with Villanova than Xavier, which lost both regular-season meetings badly. Providence may not be a team of destiny and win this game, but the players believe in head coach Ed Cooley and have beaten three Top Five opponents in the same season for the first time in school history.

The Wildcats have locked up a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament already and will likely defeat the Friars. But Providence will stay closer than expected and cover again.

College basketball betting trends

Providence is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.

Villanova is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games.

The total has gone over in six of Villanova's last seven games.

All college basketball odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.