(l-r) Kaiser Gates, Trevon Bluiett, JP Macura of Xavier David Banks/Getty Images

NCAA Bracket 2018: Complete Guide to West Region

Scott Harris

It's all drawn up, and there's no two ways about it: The 2018 West Region of the March Madness bracket is looking pretty interesting.

Xavier and North Carolina, respectively, are the top two seeds. Beyond that, there aren't many names to strike real fear in the hearts of the nation's elite.

But this is March, after all. Can someone pull an upset? Of course they can. Michigan lurks, as do Gonzaga, Houston and a boatload of others. 

The full and official bracket can be found via the NCAA website. These are our takes on the favorites, Cinderellas and stars of the West Region.

Round-of-64 Schedule and TV Info

Joel Berry Abbie Parr/Getty Images

Thursday (All TV Times Eastern)

(Games in Boise, Idaho)

No. 5 Ohio State (24-8) vs. No. 12 South Dakota State (28-6) (TBD, TNT)

No. 4 Gonzaga (27-7) vs. No. 13 UNC-Greensboro (26-8) (TBD, CBS)

            

(Games in Wichita, Kansas)

No. 6 Houston (26-7) vs. No. 11 San Diego State (22-10) (7:20 p.m., TBS)

No. 3 Michigan (28-7) vs. No. 14 Montana (26-7) (TBD, TBS)

              

Friday (All TV Times Eastern)

(Games in Nashville, Tennessee)

No. 1 Xavier (28-5) vs. No. 16 NC Central/Texas Southern (7:20 p.m., TBS)

No. 8 Missouri (20-12) vs. No. 9 Florida State (20-11) (TBD, TBS)

            

(Games in Charlotte, North Carolina)

No. 7 Texas A&M (20-12) vs. No. 10 Providence (21-13) (12:15 p.m., CBS)

No. 2 North Carolina (25-10) vs. No. 15 Lipscomb (23-9) (TBD, CBS)

Must-See Games

Michael Porter Andy Lyons/Getty Images

No. 8 Missouri vs. No. 9 Florida State

It's more than just the closeness of the seeds. There is a secret weapon here that could make for an exciting contest—and a significant postseason run.

Michael Porter is a projected high lottery pick. The Missouri Tiger essentially missed the entire season with a back injury, but reportedly he's all the way back now.

If he can fulfill even part of his potential, he'll show a national audience why he's so highly touted—and as a big guy who can rebound and deter or block shots, he could help turn back a high-octane Seminoles squad.

Even if he can't, it should be interesting to see them try against an FSU team that puts up 82 points per game on average.

                 

No. 6 Houston vs. No. 11 San Diego State

The Houston Cougars are an early sleeper pick to make some noise in the tournament. And well they should. They won 10 of their last 12, beating Wichita State in the AAC tournament before losing a nail-biter to Cincinnati in the final.

They also beat Cincy and Wichita State during the regular season, as well as other bigger names such as Providence.

But don't forget about San Diego State, which always has a team that can make any game interesting. The Aztecs beat Gonzaga once and twice toppled another tournament team in Nevada. 

Houston is 18th nationally in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com, while San Diego State is 36th. It may be a rock fight, but it should be nip and tuck throughout.

             

No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Providence

Yes, I know this isn't much of a gamble. But this has the best chance of being a good game in the early rounds, so there you go. 

I like this game because the Aggies have a lot of size in the front court and the Friars don't. The leading Providence rebounder is 6'7" Alpha Diallo. For Texas A&M, it's 6'10" Robert Williams. Overall, the Aggies outnumber the Friars in average rebounds per game by a 41-36 margin.

At the same time, Providence toppled Villanova this season and that was less than a month ago. They did it possession-by-possession, without doing anything interesting except winning at the end.

If they beat Texas A&M to loose balls, rebounds and such, this could be interesting.

Top Storylines

Theo Pinson Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Is Michael Porter Back?

As mentioned, this is a high lottery pick we're talking about who hasn't played much this season because of injury.

Duke's Marvin Bagley appears to have the NBA draft's top spot sewn up for the meantime, but could Porter play his way up there with an amazing tournament run? Yes, that is possible.

Missouri's 6'10" freshman has all the measurables, and it appears he can shoot over pretty much anyone. His defense at this level is uncertain. In the coming days, could he make a difference there for his team and his draft stock? No one knows. But it would be pretty cool for him if he did.

            

Can North Carolina Repeat?

I want to be honest: This is not a strong quadrant of the big bracket. Michigan is ranked No. 3, but they lost to Nebraska and Northwestern. 

The Tar Heels are the No. 2 seeds, and it just seems unlikely they'll lose to anyone but top-ranked Xavier. And once the Final Four begins, it's anyone's thing.

           

Xavier: A Team of Destiny?

This is the first year the Xavier Musketeers have nabbed a top spot in the Big Dance, but they've been nasty for years.

Their defense was always rock solid, but now behind guard Trevon Bluiett, they tore through the Big East with 84.3 points per game—good for 11th in the nation. Their KenPom offensive ranking is seventh nationwide.

J.P. Macura and Kerem Kanter round out their scoring attack, and their team defense is as solidmore or lessas it's always been. 

No reason to think Cincinnati's best ball club is destined for huge things this season and in this relatively weak West Region bracket.

Stars to Watch

Rob Gray (right) Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Michael Porter, Missouri

I'm sorry, I know I'm harping on about him. But Porter changes the face of this bracket if he runs out of that tunnel and maxes out on people. All the reasons I mentioned before all apply. He can change these equations.

         

Rob Gray, Houston

I like Houston as the sleeper of this tournament. Yes, their momentum slowed Sunday when they fell by one to Cincinnati in the AAC tournament final. But they remain a defensively tight (18th nationally, per KenPom) team. They don't make too many mistakes on offensive, either (31st nationally on the KenPom list).

It all starts with Rob Gray, the point guard who has lifted the team on his own on multiple occasions. He leads them with 18.6 points and 4.6 assists per game.

If he can get rolling (particularly on his three-point shot, which has been incredibly spotty), the Cougars have a real chance to make noise.

                

Mike Daum, South Dakota State

According to NCAA statistics, Mike Daum shoots the three at a 42.1 percent clip, which is good for 43rd in the entire nation. I don't know what he can do if he heats up. He's 6'9", so it's not like Ohio State can just D him up and forget about it. 

If Ohio State is going to win, Daum is unquestionably a wild card they will need to neutralize, if they can.

Favorites Most Likely to Fall

Jeffrey Carroll (bottom) Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press

Ohio State

The South Dakota State Jackrabbits have a tough time with defense. They rank 221st nationally with 74.1 points allowed.

But Ohio State is much stronger on defense, surrendering just 66.7 point per contest. But there's a chance that doesn't hold up against a South Dakota State team that stands at No. 11 nationally with 10.6 three-pointers made per game. 

The Buckeyes are good on defense, but they can be beaten there. If SDSU standouts such as Mike Daum can show up, OSU could be toppled.

Everyone knows hot-shooting teams can get hot and beat anyone in a one-game series.

              

Houston

It has been a Cinderella run this season for the Aztecs of San Diego State. Can they keep it going? I don't know, but I've heard upsets are possible this time of year.

The season didn't start well for San Diego State. They rang in the new year at 9-4, with losses to Washington State and Wyoming on their roster. That's not what you want.

But they finished strong with a nine-game win streak and a Mountain West tourney title. They have Houston in the first round.

I like Houston, but they'll need to focus up if they want to beat the Aztecs, who allow only 67.9 points per game.  

Most Likely Cinderella

South Dakota basketball team Christian Petersen/Getty Images

South Dakota State Jackrabbits

At least one team gets hot every single year, so why not South Dakota State?

No offense to Ohio State, who they face in their first round, or Gonzaga, who they are expected to face in the second round. But these are relatively beatable teams, especially for a side with the talents of South Dakota State.

According to NCAA stats, the Jackrabbits are sixth nationally with 361 three-pointers made, 12th nationally with a 40.3 percent three-point percentage and 59th nationally with a 47 percent field-goal percentage. 

According to the same statistics, the Cowboys allow three-pointers at a rate of 34.6 percent. That is 160th in the country. It could be worse, but it's still an area that could be exploited.

And here's guessing it's going to lead to their downfall against a South Dakota State team that enters the tourney having won 11 straight, including the Summit League title.

Who Will Make the Sweet 16?

Kerem Kanter Michael Hickey/Getty Images

No. 1 Xavier Musketeers

For all our talk about Cinderellas and vulnerable favorites, the West Region is set up for chalk.

The Xavier Musketeers embody that. They're going to take advantage of their first year as a top seed and run roughshod through the first team and Missouri (assuming they win) to reach the Sweet 16.

More on the Musketeers momentarily.

             

No. 2 North Carolina

The Tar Heels were up and down this season, but they ended on a high note. No one will begrudge them a loss to Virginia in the ACC tournament final, right?

They'll have a tough out awaiting them in the Texas A&M/Providence winner, but their offense and experience will carry the champs through to the second weekend.

              

No. 3 Michigan

We're talking about the Big Ten champs here. They won nine straight games including their run through the tournament. This is a dangerous team, as evidenced by the two times they beat Michigan State and the paltry 63.5 points per game they allow each contest.

               

No. 12. South Dakota State

Here's your upset special. The Jackrabbits will shoot their way past Ohio State and then topple another overrated Gonzaga squad (sorry, but it's true) for a relatively shocking Sweet 16 berth.

The Elite Eight Matchup Will Be...

JP Macura Elsa/Getty Images

No. 1 Xavier 

With their three-headed dragon of Bluiett, Macura and Kanter—which has powered them to sixth overall in the KenPom offensive rankings—Xavier seems like a hard train to stop.

They are a fairly balanced team, too, with defense a constant point of emphasis on campus (they are 59th there in the KenPom rankings).

Missouri and then the winner among Gonzaga, South Dakota State and whoever else doesn't seem like a tough gauntlet for the Musketeers. Maybe I'm underestimating the Zags, but they're welcome to prove me and Xavier wrong.

               

No. 2 North Carolina

Michigan is an accomplished, fun and likable team.

But the offensive prowess, size and sheer experience of the Tar Heels will end a fun Sweet 16 run right in its tracks. With the up-tempo Tar Heel game, it will be hard to see the Wolverines getting in front of shooters.

And the Final Four Team Is...

Trevon Bluiett Mike Lawrie/Getty Images

No. 1 Xavier Musketeers

We're going with the chalk here, for better or worse.

Xavier lacks the experience of a North Carolina, so an upset here wouldn't be a shock.

Nevertheless, we'll go with Xavier despite the fact the Tar Heels rank above them in the KenPom rankings. Why? Because the world is not built on KenPom rankings alone.

This comes down to the fact North Carolina won't be able to run on Xavier as it does on other teams.

Although Xavier allows a not-so-good 74.5 points per game, most of that happens in the half court. Their up-tempo attitude means they have the athleticism to shut down North Carolina's transition game. 

If you then factor in the 84.3 points Xavier scores on average in each contest, you have a winner. And at the end of the day, honestly it seems like the Musketeers want it more this season.

            

All stats courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.

   

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