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OKC Thunder Need More from Carmelo Anthony to Enter Championship Conversation

Jon Hamm

Late Wednesday night in Memphis, the Oklahoma City Thunder were flirting with another blown double-digit lead. The game had the feel of yet another disparaging loss, as the Grizzlies took advantage of a relaxed second-half OKC defense and rallied from 22 down early in the third quarter. But with less than 30 seconds to go and up by a single point, Russell Westbrook found Carmelo Anthony at the top of the key for an open catch-and-shoot three-pointer that sank into the net.

The shot provided the cushion OKC needed to finish with a 121-114 victory. It was the third "clutch shot" Anthony has nailed this season. (Note that "clutch" is defined as a shot made in the final 30 seconds of a game when the score is within five points.)

Though Anthony connected on a late shot and gave fans something positive to hang their hats on entering All-Star Weekend, it was an outlier. He's connected on only 30.2 percent of his shots in clutch situations and an even worse 15.8 percent from deep.

Anthony's overall play of late is cause for concern. His past two outings saw him go for 19 points against the Grizzlies and 24 points against the pre-trade-deadline Cavaliers, but he's averaging just 12.7 points per game in February while shooting 36.5 percent from the field and 30 percent from deep. 

If those numbers were to stick, the three-point percentage would be his lowest for a given month since April of last season. His scoring average would be a career low. And as for his field-goal percentage: You'd have to travel back to his first month of NBA basketball (October 2003—a two-game showcase against the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs) to find a lower number (31.0 percent).

Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press

If things don't turn around, the Thunder may have to consider scaling back Anthony's reduced role even more. Despite the feel-good memory Melo left fans with against Memphis, the team heads into the All-Star break with an underwhelming 33-26 record, one-and-a-half games out of the ninth seed. They're also 4-6 in the 10 games since losing defensive star Andre Roberson (ruptured patellar tendon) for the season.

The Thunder offense overall has been fine during Anthony's slump, but the defense has suffered. It has surrendered nearly 109 points per 100 possessions in the last 10 games compared to a defensive rating of 104 for the season.

While teams have feasted on raw rookie Terrance Ferguson in Roberson's absence, Anthony is the bigger culprit. Over that same 10-game stretch, the Thunder have a defensive rating of 115.1 when Melo is on the floor and 116.6 when Ferguson plays. The problem here is that Ferguson is averaging just 9.6 minutes per contest in February, while Anthony (excluding his six-minute showing against the Warriors thanks to a sprained ankle) is playing 34 minutes a night.

Before Roberson's season-ending injury, the Thunder defense with Anthony on the floor was acceptable, clocking in at 103.8 points per 100 possessions. It's a concerning trend for a team that needs to begin building momentum toward the postseason; however, the list of available fixes is dwindling.

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The trade deadline passed without a move from the Thunder. They were reportedly involved in a number of discussions, but the climate wasn't ripe for general manager Sam Presti to pull another rabbit out of his hat. OKC didn't have the two main possessions that other teams desired: expiring contracts or an imminent first-round pick.

The Thunder could find a reinforcement or two on the buyout market, as players waived by March 1 are eligible to sign with another team. Some players who might have been on Oklahoma City's radar—such as Marco Belinelli and Joe Johnson—have already landed in new locales.

One notable player of interest is Tony Allen, recently released by the Chicago Bulls after a trade with the New Orleans Pelicans. Allen is well-known in the state of Oklahoma as a college star in Stillwater, and he later became part of the Grit-N-Grind Grizzlies that played in several hard-fought playoff series against the Thunder.

But this isn't the same Allen who was named to six All-Defensive teams. OKC could look to give him a role similar to what he had in Memphis, but he's 36 years old, has played just 22 games this season and could be a detriment in the playoffs. After all, the Warriors famously schemed the star defender off the floor in the 2015 postseason by ignoring him on offense.

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Even if the Thunder can scrounge up a serviceable veteran to help their defense, that still leaves the question of how to handle Melo, the future Hall of Famer and four-time Olympian.

To his credit, Anthony has willingly adjusted over the course of the season. The pace-halting, one-on-one isolations that were a staple early in the season have decreased. He's become less of a shot-creator and more of a facilitator, and he's an upbeat locker room presence.

And he can still occasionally hit a big shot. His reputation keeps opponents honest.

As Presti and coach Billy Donovan continue to search for solutions, some of the fix may already be in-house. Donovan has tried lineups with Paul George and Jerami Grant on the wings in the hopes of somewhat replicating Roberson's role. Grant is on a tear lately, averaging 12 points and 6.9 rebounds in February.

Patrick Patterson made key contributions against the Warriors and Grizzlies recently. He's a much more versatile defender than Melo and can also space the floor when he's involved in the offense, though his inconsistency has limited his minutes.

More ideally, Anthony gets back on track. When he's locked in and playing well, he adds another dimension for the Thunder as a catch-and-shoot threat. Melo's presence helps open up room for Westbrook, George and Steven Adams to operate, but opponents will be encouraged to cheat off him if he continues misfiring. 

He's played occasionally capable defense this season—against Blake Griffin, for instance—but lately has been worked over by the likes of Julius Randle and Grizzlies journeymen. Without Roberson, the Thunder can't afford another weak link defensively, and Donovan may not have options to hide Anthony.

Anthony can be the player to move Oklahoma City into—or at least closer to—the top tier in the Western Conference. But if this recent trend continues, Donovan will have to consider curtailing Anthony's minutes and easing him out of clutch-situation lineups.

   

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