The game sure to give would-be bettors the hardest time during these NFL playoffs is far and away the AFC Championship Game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and New England Patriots. 

Thank Tom Brady's hand. 

Brady suffered a gashed hand injury in practice during the week leading up to the game, according to NFL Network's Mike Garafolo. The uncertainty of the injury has since axed a double-digit line favoring the Patriots at home and moved it closer to a touchdown margin. 

After all, the red-hot Jaguars were already bringing an elite defense to Foxborough after downing the high-flying Pittsburgh Steelers. The injured-hand element has cast the title game in a new light, to say the least. 

Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots

Date and Time: Sunday, January 21, at 3:05 p.m. ET

TV/Live Stream: CBS, CBS All Access

Odds: New England (-8), O/U 46.5

Brady hurting or not, Jacksonville's mentality wasn't going to change heading into this game, as recording a sack or two isn't what the Jaguars have in mind. For defensive tackle Marcell Dareus, it's about being a "gnat" and keeping the pressure consistent. 

"You sack him, he's going to get up and just keep rolling," Dareus said, according to ESPN.com's David Newton. "He's that competitive spirit, like, 'OK, you got me. Now I'm gonna go throw this touchdown the next play. Forty yards. You happy about that sack, but there you go.' That's just his mentality."

Those Jaguars know plenty about applying pressure, at least, after recording 55 sacks during the regular season and coercing opponents into 21 interceptions. But against Pittsburgh, a salvaged 45-42 win after jumping to a 21-0 advantage, Ben Roethlisberger still managed five touchdowns against one interception. 

Rest assured Brady has the film there and thoughts of his own on how to exploit the defense, provided his hand can make the throws. 

The hand took center stage during the hours before kickoff, as captured by ESPN's Dianna Russini: 

The hoopla over the hand could amount to very little here, as a bit of misdirection and vagueness from Bill Belichick and the Patriots wouldn't come as a surprise to seasoned bettors. 

lf Brady's throws aren't impacted by the stitches, he's still the guy who completed 66.3 percent of his passes with 4,577 yards and 32 touchdowns against eight interceptions during the regular season, sending three or more touchdowns to six different targets before touching up the Tennessee Titans for three touchdowns and no picks in a 35-14 playoff win. 

Brady's defense has improved despite a few memorable early-season gaffes as well, having allowed just two opponents since a Week 9 bye to crack the 20-point mark—and only one of those hiccups was a loss. 

Combine Brady and his defense with the nature of the Jaguars offense and one still gets an eight-point line even with the star quarterback hiding his injured hand from the media as he walks into the stadium. 

Said nature, being, of course, Blake Bortles under center for the Jaguars. It's Leonard Fournette-or-bust season for the Jaguars, as the rookie bruised his way to 109 yards and three touchdowns in the takedown of the Steelers. Bortles hasn't needed to carry his team offensively while playing from behind and hasn't attempted more than 26 passes in either of his two playoff games so far. 

For bettors, it might be interesting to know that, according to Odds Shark, Jacksonville is only 8-4 against the spread over its last 12 road games and the Patriots are 10-1 against the spread over their last 11 games outright. 

It's yet another way of saying the home side should come out on top of this one if Brady is throwing close to his usual self. Quarterbacks have to matter at this stage of the playoffs, even if the final four includes Brady, Bortles, Nick Foles and Case Keenum. Each team left standing is complete, yet only one has arguably the greatest to play the position. 

Historically speaking, the Patriots have another angle going for them as well, as captured by NFL Network's Andrew Siciliano: 

Experience is another thing needing to stick in the mind of would-be bettors. Brady and most of the guys around him have been here before. The Jaguars haven't, and the above trend overall shows how tough it is on an opponent during their first encounter with Brady. There is a huge difference between watching film on Brady and actually getting on the field with him—something that goes double for a Jaguars team unaccustomed to this stage on the road. 

It all adds up to a Patriots win one way or another at home. Brady has a matchup nightmare in Rob Gronkowski to lean on, as well as a stable of backs to spread out across the field in the passing game. Once he hops out to a lead, the Jaguars leave their comfort zone and need Bortles to produce, which isn't a given against a quietly surging Patriots defense. 

Prediction: Patriots 27, Jaguars 24

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Odds according to OddsShark.