Stick or twist is the not-so-simple decision facing the Washington Redskins regarding Kirk Cousins this offseason. The Burgundy and Gold can either pay up and give their starting quarterback the lucrative contract he wants or take their chances with a third straight franchise tag.
Should the team opt to twist, it will be hitting the reset button once again at football's most important position. Then the Redskins will find themselves forced to pick from a free-agency market and draft class lacking in star power.
The decision over Cousins' immediate future is among the most contentious in franchise history. Such is the polarizing nature of the passer who took the starting job from supposed franchise quarterback Robert Griffin III in 2015.
Cousins' supporters will point to his franchise records and 2016 Pro Bowl berth. His critics will fire back with the belief No. 8 is turnover-prone and has only taken the Redskins to the playoffs once in three seasons under center.
All are compelling arguments, but the cases for and against keeping Cousins are more complicated. They rest largely on the belief or doubt Washington can find a credible alternative if it lets its starter walk this offseason.
For: Better the Quarterback You Know
The phrase "better the devil you know" should be on the minds of owner Dan Snyder and team president Bruce Allen when they try to solve the Cousins problem in the offseason.
Cousins is now entrenched under center for the Redskins, offering the kind of stability most teams crave at quarterback. He has shown he can be counted on for solid production, having topped 4,000 yards twice and thrown 24-plus touchdowns in each of the last three seasons.
Those are commendable numbers for any pro passer. The Redskins have to be honest about whether their alternatives can yield the same stability and production.
When Allen and Snyder look at their options, they may feel like they are staring into the abyss. It's difficult to phrase it any other way when the veteran market will likely be headlined by unconvincing names such as Sam Bradford and Jay Cutler.
Ouch.
If you don't like those options, then how about Mark Sanchez, Teddy Bridgewater, Geno Smith and Matt Moore? Goodbye, frying pan; hello, fire.
But there's also a lack of riches in next year's draft. In an offseason filled with quarterback-needy teams—to name a few: Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Denver Broncos, Buffalo Bills and Arizona Cardinals—it's easy to believe most of the top prospects will be gone by the time the Redskins make their pick.
Indeed, Walter Football's latest mock draft has Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson all off the board before Washington's first selection. Bleacher Report's Matt Miller most recent mock follows this pattern with Rosen, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Mayfield and Mason Rudolph. The scramble for quarterbacks is going to be intense.
Dumping Cousins before entering this mad trolley dash could leave the Redskins short of talent where it matters most by the time the 2018 season begins.
Against: The Alternatives Are Better Than You Think
That pesky free-agent class will look a whole lot better if Drew Brees is in it, but his excellence makes signing him an uphill struggle for any team. The New Orleans Saints aren't going to want to let him go, and No. 9 sounds like he wants to stay in the Big Easy.
In November, he said on XTRA 1360-AM's Hardwick & Richards (h/t Nick Shook of NFL.com): "We're trying to get a little bit better each and every week. I feel like we've got a great opportunity ahead of us and I don't plan on leaving New Orleans ever. Hopefully, I know all of that stuff takes care of itself when it's supposed to."
Brees is coming off of yet another outstanding season. He has a 104.0 rating and has thrown for 3,850 yards and 21 touchdowns. He'll be 39 before next season, but he would guarantee a quick turnaround in D.C.
If the Redskins are put off by Brees' age or simply rebuffed, they could turn to Case Keenum. The 29-year-old has completely revived the offense for the Minnesota Vikings this season and is playing smart, efficient football in Pat Shurmur's offense.
If Jay Gruden survives the hot seat—a distinct possibility, since Snyder extended his contract by two years back in March—maybe he could use his influence to trade for Andy Dalton. The Red Rifle's future will be uncertain if Marvin Lewis parts ways with the Cincinnati Bengals at the end of the season, as NFL Network's Ian Rapoport has reported (h/t NFL.com's Kevin Patra). A fresh start on the sideline could open up the possibility of a reboot under center.
Dalton isn't the only veteran who could be on the block, though, since Eli Manning's future with the New York Giants is far from certain. Even Alex Smith of the Kansas City Chiefs has been the subject of trade rumours, with ESPN's Adam Schefter reporting in September that the AFC West club will listen to offers after this season.
If the Redskins can look past the negatives, they will see more than a few quarterbacks who could help life after Cousins go smoothly.
For: Cousins' Numbers Are Great, Even Though the Talent Around Him Isn't
A good indicator of Cousins' progress and general competence as a starting quarterback: He has still put up strong numbers without a quality supporting cast.
The Redskins have only six wins in 2017, but Cousins has thrown for 24 touchdowns and 3,636 yards, good for a 98.8 passer rating. However, it's the context for those numbers that speaks volumes about his value.
Cousins lost Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson in the offseason after the two 1,000-yard wide receivers left for pastures new. Jackson's obvious replacement, Terrelle Pryor Sr., failed to thrive, leaving Cousins with Jamison Crowder, Ryan Grant and Josh Doctson. To make matters worse, his best pass-catcher, tight end Jordan Reed, appeared in just six games before landing on injured reserve.
Injuries have decimated the line in front of Cousins as well, with his most talented pass protector, left tackle Trent Williams, making just 10 starts. Guards Brandon Scherff and Shawn Lauvao and center Spencer Long have also been out.
The effects on Cousins have been clear: He's taken 38 sacks, compared to only 23 last season.
A dedicated ground game would have been a major boost. Unfortunately, the Redskins have the 26th-ranked rushing offense in football—partly due to Gruden's pass-happy play-calling. Injuries to Chris Thompson—one of the best pass-catchers in the NFL—and Rob Kelley haven't helped.
Thinking about what Cousins would do with better talent around him hardly requires a leap of the imagination. The previous two seasons yielded 9,083 passing yards, 54 touchdowns, one NFC East title, a playoff berth, franchise records and a trip to the Pro Bowl.
The Redskins shouldn't be focused on alternatives to Cousins. Putting superior playmakers around him should be the priority.
Against: He's Just a Younger Jay Cutler
Those not impressed by Cousins' numbers would surely point to his penchant for costly turnovers and dubious decisions and an inability to get over the playoff hump. Those nasty habits show flashes of an underperformer like Jay Cutler.
Cutler's career is defined by a sometimes baffling—but always infuriating—inability to turn his physical talent into wins and championships. He has guided a team to the playoffs just once, helping the 2010 Chicago Bears reach the NFC title game.
Cousins is in some danger of repeating Cutler's bad habits. His struggles to protect the ball cost him the chance to make the starting job his own in 2014.
The interceptions have cleared up a little since, although Cousins has still tossed nine picks this season. He's also lost five of 12 fumbles. His penchant for calamity costs the Redskins games, and he's set to mark his second season out of three as a starter with no playoff football.
Washington has to be wary about paying the big bucks to a signal-caller whose self-destruct button could waste his obvious talent.
For: The Cost of Changing Quarterback Is Greater Than Dollars and Cents
Keeping Cousins for the long haul is likely going to mean making him the highest-paid player in football. The contracts handed out to Andrew Luck, Derek Carr and Matthew Stafford in recent years have put Cousins in the strongest possible negotiating position.
But that's because letting a capable starter go could have a greater cost than just hurting Snyder in the wallet.
Consider the team coming to FedExField in Week 16, the Denver Broncos. It was only two seasons ago when the Broncos went to and won Super Bowl 50. Then Peyton Manning retired, and the franchise bet big and lost on Paxton Lynch and Trevor Siemian.
Those miscalculations convinced the Broncos to give another chance to Brock Osweiler, Manning's backup during the Super Bowl season who has flopped as a starter for the Houston Texans and been released by the Cleveland Browns since.
It's no wonder Nick Kosmider of the Denver Post has called this "one of the most turbulent, unstable seasons at the position in franchise history."
Not surprisingly, Denver's confusion under center has led to a losing season and wasted the league's top-ranked defense. Gifted wideouts such as Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas have also floundered.
The Redskins don't want a similar quicksand at quarterback swallowing their potential in other areas. Washington has talent on defense, particularly in edge-rusher Ryan Kerrigan, end Jonathan Allen and cornerbacks Josh Norman and Kendall Fuller.
There is also quality among Cousins' receivers, particularly Crowder and Reed, when he's healthy. Yet playmakers on both sides of the ball will count for naught without a sure quarterback to hold things together.
Against: Cost of Cousins' Next Contract Is Too Big a Hit for a Rebuilding Team
There are bigger problems facing the Redskins than Cousins' future, ones unlikely to be solved if a significant chunk of the team's money is dedicated to the player drafted in the fourth round in 2012.
The Redskins need to fix their running game, bolster key positions along the O-line, sign a blue-chip wide receiver and add talent at safety. Those are just the most pressing needs, not to mention finding a bookend pass-rusher to complement Kerrigan, bringing back Zach Brown and putting a versatile middle linebacker next to him.
It's a big to-do list for any team, one sure to require heavy investment. Such an outlay won't be possible if Cousins is tagged for a third year running.
Last month, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported the Redskins don't want to hand Cousins a transition tag, instead preferring a franchise tag set to pay the QB as much as $34.5 million for 2018.
The hole created in the salary cap would only be marginally smaller if Cousins gets a long-term contract. Consider Stafford will earn an average of $27 million annually, while Carr will take home $25 million, per ESPN's Michael Rothstein.
Those numbers represent the ballpark the Redskins will be dealing in when talking terms with Cousins. Consider neither Stafford nor Carr are likely to take their teams to the playoffs this season, so Cousins' own failure to do so in Washington won't severely impact what he can get.
Opting out of those negotiations to invest the money in building a stronger overall roster, one capable of propping up a less talented or inexperienced quarterback, at least in the short term, may be the smarter move for Allen and Snyder.
In the long run, it may be better for the Redskins to take a hit or two on the field while they start again at quarterback, safe in the knowledge the next starter will take his lumps surrounded by more talent.
There's no easy answer to the dilemma the Redskins face with Cousins. The franchise will have to decide what it values most: the safety of stability or the cost-effective but risky opportunity to regenerate again at football's most important position.
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