Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts are not divisional rivals, but they've met five times already over the last four seasons. The Colts won three of those games straight up and covered the spread four times. The teams meet again Thursday night in Indianapolis.

NFL point spread: The Broncos opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 41.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 22.8-14.8 Colts (NFL picks on every game).

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Why the Broncos can cover the spread

The Broncos are coming off their best performance since October, a 23-0 shutout of the Jets last week. Denver scored on its first two possessions of the game and put the clamps on from there, snapping a dismal eight-game losing streak.

On the day, the Broncos outgained New York 273-100, limited the Jets to just six first downs, won the turnover battle 2-0 and dominated time of possession by a 38-22 split. Denver has outgained six of its last 10 opponents. Unfortunately, the Broncos rank 31st in the league in turnover margin at minus-14.

Denver just beat Indianapolis back in September of last season 34-20, covering as six-point favorites.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

The Colts are trying to snap a four-game losing streak, during which three of those losses have come by a total of 13 points. Last week Indianapolis fell in a snowdrift in Buffalo 13-7 in overtime.

In a game that almost shouldn't count the Colts trailed 7-0 at the half, drove 77 yards for a game-tying touchdown with a minute to go but lost on a LeSean McCoy scoring scamper late in the OT.

Indianapolis went for the win after its only score, but an offensive pass interference call negated a successful two-point conversion. Kicker Adam Vinatieri then made a 43-yard extra point, but moments later pulled a 43-yard field-goal attempt that also would have won the game. He also missed from 33 yards in the first quarter. However, nobody's blaming him, considering the brutal conditions.

The Colts are playing close games as of late; five of their last six contests have been decided by six points or less.

Smart pick

The NFL honors us with this stinker of a matchup for a Thursday night, and bettors might be wise just to avert their eyes. Ultimately, despite its struggles, Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS at home this season, while Denver is a "perfect" 0-6 ATS on the road. So the smarter cash would appear to favor the Colts.

NFL betting trends

The Broncos are 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against the Colts.

The total has gone over in 10 of the Broncos' last 12 games against the Colts.

The Colts are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games on a Thursday.

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.