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The Point Guard Weakness That Could Cost Duke Superteam a National Title

C.J. Moore

A year ago, Duke spent the majority of the season trying to figure out life without a true point guard. That, coupled with injury woes, produced an underwhelming 28-9 season and second-round exit in the NCAA tournament.

Mike Krzyzewski addressed that issue by signing the top point guard in the 2017 class in Trevon Duval, a speed demon who has Duke playing at its fastest pace in years and has unleashed Grayson Allen to focus on scoring and get back to playing at an All-American level.

The Blue Devils (11-0) appear to be the best team in college basketball through the first month of the season. They have five starters who will one day hear their names called in the first round of the NBA draft, led by Allen and Marvin Bagley, who might just be the most talented frontcourt player Coach K has ever coached and is the early favorite for National Player of the Year.

With wins over current No. 3 Michigan State, Texas, No. 5 Florida and at Indiana, the Devils have justified—strengthened even—the preseason consensus that they should be the title favorites. Last week, another Top 25 coach said Duke is No. 1, and the rest of the field is so far behind that the next-best team, in comparison, is No. 5.

But Duke is not perfect. Most would point to the defense being far from elite—ranking 112th nationally in points per possession allowed, per KenPom.com. That could be chalked up to starting four freshmen and not a lot of practice time to address deficiencies. (Duke recently finished a stretch of nine games in 22 days.)

When asked after a 91-81 win over IU last week about what his players are learning about defense, Coach K responded: "That they have to play it better."

Much like his youthful 2014-15 title team, the defense should get better as the season progresses. Based on how Duke's defense has performed in crunch time, it's more about inexperience than personnel.

But there is one other deficiency that Coach K will spend the season trying to figure out how to address, and it could be the more important question in regard to March and April success: Can Duke win a national championship with a point guard who cannot shoot?


The number sticks out like a pimple on an otherwise beautiful face: 16.7 percent.

That, of course, is Duval's percentage from beyond the arc this season.

Winning a title with a poor three-point shooter has been done before. In 2003-04, Connecticut won the championship with point guard Taliek Brown making just one three-pointer the entire season. The Huskies, however, had a dominant defense.

Most recently, Peyton Siva shot just 28.8 percent from deep during Louisville's 2012-13 title season. In 2011-12, Kentucky's Marquis Teague shot 32.5 percent. But Teague and Siva made enough—Siva 38 and Teague 26—that they were at least considered threats.

Duval has made five in 11 games and is getting ignored.

That has created an internal battle in which the young point guard must decide whether he should prove he can shoot or figure out other ways to exploit defenses for leaving him alone.

The former has led to some awkward attempts.

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Duval has tried 30 threes, which is probably too many considering his success rate. Against Florida, who totally ignored him on the perimeter, he finally made his fifth attempt and then barely a minute later clanged one from the same spot. Sometimes success, even minimal, empowers poor shooters to shoot again.

The alternative—figuring out other ways to exploit a defense that doesn't respect his shot—has been a mixed bag.

When he's on the ball and his defender sags, it makes it easier for Duval to feed the post.

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Duval also drives effectively with a running start against a sagging defender, although he's sometimes overzealous when the defense stops him initially.

Off the ball, Duval is often left standing alone in the corner and hasn't quite figured out how to make neglecting defenders pay with smart cuts. Gary Trent Jr., Duke's other freshman guard, is much better at that.

Not every opponent has ignored Duval to the level of Florida, but if he gets this sort of treatment, he could also take advantage by crashing the offensive glass, as he did here:

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Duval has only four offensive rebounds, which is a low number considering his athleticism. It's also nitpicking considering Duke is already the best offensive rebounding team in the country, grabbing 43.8 percent of its misses.

Duke's offense has also managed to get by just fine without his shooting, scoring 125.6 points per 100 possessions, which ranks second nationally.

It has, however, made it easier for defenses to double-team Duke's post scorers without repercussions.

Krzyzewski is already trying to hide Duval. Once he initiates the offense, he'll often escape to the opposite corner of Bagley, making it harder for his defender to cheat over against Duke's star.

Spacing issues have been most obvious in late-game situations when Duke tries to drain the clock and run some sort of isolation against.

On the final play of regulation against Texas with the score tied, Bagley opted to pull up for a three-pointer.

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Bagley asked Coach K afterward if he should have driven the ball, but Duval's man left him completely and basically cut off Bagley's lane to the left. (He almost always goes left.)

Watch ESPN screen shot

Two days later in the last minute against Florida, the Devils again had a disjointed possession that had much to do with Duval's man roaming away from him and taking away the desired action, an isolation for Bagley in the post.

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Duke has mostly been awesome late in games and figured out ways to win. Even Duval, who was really struggling against the Gators, made an impact with a putback, an assist and a steal down the stretch.

"When a player can change during a game, he's special. He's got a chance to be very, very good, and Trevon did that," Krzyzewski said after Duke's 87-84 win over Florida in the final of the PK80.

The Gators simply did not have the size to deal with Bagley, but they did give everyone else the blueprint on how to defend—or rather, not defend—Duval.

Hiding someone gets harder in conference play as the season progresses and league coaches have more time for preparation and experimentation.

Krzyzewski is one of the best at building offenses around his team's strengths, and he's already adjusted well this year with his first team built around two post players in a long while.

Ideally, Duke would surround Bagley and Wendell Carter with three perimeter shooters, giving them the space to go one-on-one in the post.

Duval is obviously working on his shot, and it's actually looking more fluid.

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But it's usually difficult for a player who has been a non-shooter to find his stroke and confidence in-season. Most likely, Duval will be a bad shooter all season.

Are the Blue Devils so stacked that it won't matter? Possibly. But his jumper could be the one hope the rest of the country has of closing the gap.

      

C.J. Moore covers college basketball at the national level for Bleacher Report. You can find him on Twitter @CJMooreHoops. 

   

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