The 2017-18 men's college basketball season isn't even three weeks old, yet it already feels like everyone is chasing Marvin Bagley III for the title of National Player of the Year.
Most of the players in our top 10 aren't all that surprising. Bagley, Bonzie Colson, Jalen Brunson, Miles Bridges, Devonte' Graham and Jevon Carter were each in the top 15 of our preseason ranking of the top players.
But no one could have guessed Jordan Murphy, Trae Young, Brandon McCoy and Tra Holder would be putting up the outrageous numbers that they have.
Arguing about these rankings is encouraged. You can comment on the article or hit me up on Twitter.
However, arguing that it's way too early to be thinking about Player of the Year is strictly forbidden. Two years ago, I had Buddy Hield, Grayson Allen, Jakob Poeltl, Kris Dunn and Denzel Valentine in the top five of my POY rankings Dec. 1. All five finished among the 15 finalists, and Hield edged out Valentine to win the award.
Team success is a critical component in POY consideration. After all, you didn't see Ben Simmons or Markelle Fultz among the finalists for the Wooden Award, even though they were No. 1 NBA draft picks. So, to a small extent, team record and expectations were taken into consideration. For the most part, though, this is a ranking of players who have been most impressive through their first half-dozen or so games.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics are current through the start of play Thursday.
Honorable Mentions
Later in the season, there won't be any need to include more than a couple of honorable mentions. But at the end of November, when per-game averages are sky-high and preseason player rankings are still fresh in our memories, the gap between the 10th- and 30th-best players in the country is slim to none.
Thus, here are 10 words each on 20 honorable mentions, listed in alphabetical order by last name.
Grayson Allen, Duke—Just 13 points per game since sensational Champions Classic performance.
Deandre Ayton, Arizona—Averaging a double-double but struggling on defense as a 4.
Trevon Bluiett, Xavier—Disappointing past two games but averaging nearly 20 per night.
Mikal Bridges, Villanova—Toughest top-10 omission; he makes us forget about Josh Hart.
Bruce Brown, Miami (Fla.)—Not shooting well yet but still having a major impact.
Gary Clark, Cincinnati—It took four years, but he is finally asserting himself.
Angel Delgado, Seton Hall—Despite one dud (NJIT), numbers are as great as 2016-17.
Ethan Happ, Wisconsin—Thriving as individual, but the Badgers can't buy a win.
DJ Hogg, Texas A&M—Stat-sheet stuffer has the Aggies looking like a title contender.
Jalen Hudson, Florida—If nothing else, clear top candidate for most improved player.
Kevin Knox, Kentucky—Arguably Kentucky's top player, who is always a POY candidate.
Dakota Mathias, Purdue—Lethal shooter who has improved as defender and ball distributor.
Luke Maye, North Carolina—Not Kevin Love; breakout junior might be next Frank Kaminsky.
Shaquille Morris, Wichita State—Force in defensive paint who has added a three-point stroke.
Erick Neal, Texas-Arlington—He could break NCAA record for assists in a season.
Collin Sexton, Alabama—Outstanding combo guard almost beat Minnesota playing 3-on-5.
Landry Shamet, Wichita State—Somehow, he's even more efficient than he was last year.
Allonzo Trier, Arizona—This dude can score, but what else does he do?
Lagerald Vick, Kansas—Lights-out shooter providing much-needed rebounding for an undersized Kansas squad.
Isaiah Wilkins, Virginia—National media doesn't properly appreciate his value added on defense.
10. Brandon McCoy, UNLV
Preseason Rank: Not Ranked
2017-18 Stats: 18.6 PPG, 12.1 RPG, 1.7 BPG
MVP Performance: 26 points, 17 rebounds, one block vs. Utah (11/22)
A few years ago, I came up with a stat to try to measure a player's overall impact on a per-minute basis. Far too often, we end up comparing a guard who plays 34 minutes per game to a big man who plays 25 per night, and it ends up boiling down to an individual preference between high-volume shooters and high-flying swatters. But this helps put all players on the same plane.
It's not a complicated formula: P + 1.25*(R+A) + 1.5*(S+B). All stats are per-40 minutes, and you can probably guess that P is points, R is rebounds, A is assists, S is steals and B is blocks. By the end of the year, anything over a 40 is quite impressive. At this early stage in the season, 40 is good, 50 is great and anything above a 55 is sensational.
Brandon McCoy's number entering play on Wednesday was 64.4, which is the highest among all 30 players considered. Trae Young (62.1) is the only other player with a score of 57 or higher.
McCoy's stats listed above don't seem to be best-in-the-nation impressive until you get the additional information that he's only playing 25.3 minutes per game. On a per-40 basis, that equates to 31.8 points, 20.5 rebounds and 2.9 blocks, which is just plain ridiculous. Caleb Swanigan had 28 double-doubles last season, and his per-40 numbers were 22.7 points and 15.3 rebounds.
To be fair, McCoy has had the luxury of facing subpar competition. Outside of the game against Utah—which probably won't even finish in the top half of the Pac-12 standings—the toughest opponent McCoy faced (before Wednesday's road game against Northern Iowa) was Eastern Washington. It's not exactly shocking that a 7'0" forward with any degree of talent would have five double-doubles in those first six games.
Regardless, the numbers he has put up are unbelievable, and it makes Saturday's game against the Arizona Wildcats at the Thomas and Mack Center more noteworthy than anyone would have guessed three weeks ago.
9. Jevon Carter, West Virginia
Preseason Rank: 15
2017-18 Stats: 18.1 PPG, 5.4 APG, 4.4 SPG, 4.1 RPG, 38.5% 3PT
MVP Performance: 20 points, nine steals, seven assists, seven rebounds, two blocks vs. American (11/15)
Last year was a breakout season for Jevon Carter. His per-game points, rebounds and steals each increased by roughly 50 percent from his sophomore year while he became the face of Press Virginia.
But his improvement from his junior to senior season has been even more impressive than it was from sophomore to junior, making Carter the rarely seen defensive-minded candidate for National POY.
Per usual for him, the steals are what first grab your attention. At 4.4 per game, he's well on pace to break the NCAA single-season record for steals—160 by Alabama A&M's Desmond Cambridge in 2001-02. Considering Carter finished in the top 12 nationally in steal percentage in two of the past three years, there's no good reason to assume his rate of pilfers will plummet.
In previous years, that was the end of the conversation. Carter always could score—he put up 28 against the Virginia Military Institute less than two weeks into his freshman season—but he tended to defer to teammates on offense, leaving the steals as the only noteworthy figure on his stat sheet.
Now that there's no one left for him to defer to, he has become the man for West Virginia on both ends of the floor.
Entering play Wednesday, Carter ranked third in the Big 12 in points per game and fourth in assists per game, and he led the nation (by a comfortable margin) in steals per game. Even if the steal rate eventually tapers off a bit, Carter should remain a viable NPOY candidate for as long as West Virginia stays in the conversation for the Final Four.
8. Tra Holder, Arizona State
Preseason Rank: Not Ranked
2017-18 Stats: 23.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 5.5 APG, 2.0 SPG, 50.0% 3PT
MVP Performance: 40 points, four assists, four rebounds, three steals vs. Xavier (11/24)
Every preseason in every conference, there's one team that stands out as a wild card—the one that could compete for the league title if two things break right or that could finish in the bottom three if two things break wrong. In this year's Pac-12, that team was Arizona State. And through six games, everything is coming up Sun Devils.
The leader of this offensive assault—the team has scored at least 90 points in every game—is Tra Holder.
Holder had been solid in each of the past two seasons. He averaged 14.2 points per game as a sophomore and 16.2 as a junior with roughly 3.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists in each of those campaigns. But Arizona State finished below .500 in each of those years, so there wasn't any good reason for most casual fans to know this senior's name.
Now that his shooting percentages are through the roof, his defense has improved and he's occasionally flirting with triple-doubles for the undefeated breakout team of November, people are taking notice.
One thing you have to love about Holder's start to the season is that he had his best performance against a legitimate Final Four contender. It's one thing to annihilate UC Irvine or Idaho State, but 40 points against Xavier? Per Sports Reference, the only other player in the past eight years to put up at least 35 in a game against the Musketeers was Doug McDermott in January 2014.
Holder was unstoppable in the 102-86 neutral-court victory over Xavier that solidified the Sun Devils as a threat to win the Pac-12. They have a lot of room for improvement on the defensive end, but it's coincidental that we just mentioned Holder and McDermott in the same sentence because this high-octane offense feels a lot like those 2011-14 Creighton teams.
7. Devonte' Graham, Kansas
Preseason Rank: 8
2017-18 Stats: 15.8 PPG, 8.5 APG, 4.8 RPG, 2.3 SPG, 36.1% 3PT
MVP Performance: 35 points, five assists, five rebounds, two steals vs. Toledo (11/28)
Devonte' Graham was a strong candidate for preseason first-team All-American.
Prior to Tuesday night, he wasn't living up to expectations.
In his transition from secondary to primary ball-handler, he showed great improvement as both a passer and defender. Graham had at least 11 assists in three of his first four games and had multiple steals in four of the first five. But compared to his numbers from the previous three seasons, his shooting percentages (34.5 percent from the field; 28.6 percent from distance) were disastrous.
Moreover, his overall performance against Kentucky in the Champions Classic was just plain bad. He had 11 points on 14 shots and finished with as many turnovers as assists—five of each. That 65-61 win was the only time this season Kansas has failed to score at least 92 points in a game, and it's largely because Graham never got going. And, unfortunately, that's the only game the Jayhawks have played against a KenPom Top 100 opponent, which makes it difficult to overlook that no-show.
But then he exploded for 35 points on 19 shots against Toledo, and we're eager to jump back on the Graham bandwagon.
Though Kansas won the game by nearly 40 points, we aren't talking about meaningless, stat-padding buckets late in a game against an opponent that lost its will to fight. Graham scored 30 of his 35 points in the first 25 minutes. He easily could have gone for 50 if there had been any reason to keep shooting.
He has always had the stroke to be that type of scorer, but he was also always playing either second or third fiddle to someone else on the Jayhawks roster. Now that Graham is running the show for one of the top candidates for the national championship, he'll be a near-lock as a Wooden Award finalist if his shooting percentages continue working their way back to normal.
6. Miles Bridges, Michigan State
Preseason Rank: 1
2017-18 Stats: 15.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.0 BPG, 1.8 APG, 36.0% 3PT
MVP Performance: 20 points, 10 rebounds, three blocks, two assists, one steal vs. North Florida (11/10)
Based on this year's stats, Miles Bridges has no business ranking in the top 10. Heck, he probably isn't (statistically) worthy of an honorable mention, considering some of the hot starts that didn't even make the cut for that designation.
But, come on.
It was only three weeks ago that Bridges was unanimously expected to win the 2018 Wooden Award. He missed the game against DePaul because of an ankle injury suffered against Stony Brook. He didn't look like himself in the subsequent games against Connecticut and North Carolina. And of the 2.8 games that he was healthy, one came against a Duke team that is the current runaway favorite to win the national championship.
Combine all that information with the respectable statistics above and it's hard to believe there are some people who have already dropped Bridges out of their top 10.
Despite the injury, most of his numbers are on par with what they were last season. However, he has shown marked improvement on defense. Both his block and steal rates are roughly 50 percent better than last year, which is undoubtedly a product of his transition back to a more natural position at the 3.
Once the ankle gets back to 100 percent, the other numbers will follow. Bridges was averaging 26.5 points per 40 minutes in his first three games, and even at that, it felt like he had more to offer. After an eight-game December slate in which the toughest opponent is Nebraska, he should be firmly back in the POY race.
5. Trae Young, Oklahoma
Preseason Rank: Not Ranked
2017-18 Stats: 28.2 PPG, 8.6 APG, 4.2 RPG, 2.2 SPG, 38.6% 3PT
MVP Performance: 43 points, seven assists, four rebounds, two steals vs. Oregon (11/26)
Despite an 11-20 record last year, the Oklahoma Kool-Aid was flying off the shelves this offseason because of the arrival of freshman point guard Trae Young.
To put it lightly, he has not disappointed.
Young had a double-double (points and assists) in his first two games before averaging 34.7 points during Oklahoma's time in the PK80. The Sooners couldn't buy a bucket for most of the 2016-17 season, but they are flying up and down the court, averaging 96.4 points per contest through five games.
I can't imagine Young will maintain these averages for the entire season, but even for one-seventh of a season, what he is doing thus far is almost incomprehensible.
You can forget about trying to find a suitable college comparison. Per Sports-Reference, there isn't another player in the past quarter-century who averaged at least 24.5 points and 7.5 assists per game, let alone 28.2 and 8.6, respectively. Even in seven decades of NBA history, there have only been five unique players who averaged at least 28 points and 8.5 assists per game—Oscar Robertson, Tiny Archibald, LeBron James, James Harden and Russell Westbrook. And those guys had eight more minutes per game than Young gets at the collegiate level.
I'm not trying to tell you that this 19-year-old kid with five games of college experience is going to be the next Westbrook, but it's worth noting how ridiculous his numbers are.
At the very least, we can entertain the notion that he is a better overall freshman point guard than Lonzo Ball was. Young can score from anywhere, plays to and through contact, loves finding open teammates and has done a great job of defending without fouling. There will eventually be some shortcomings—because no one is perfect for 35-40 games—but there's a strong case to be made that Young was the national player of the month of November.
4. Jordan Murphy, Minnesota
Preseason Rank: Not Ranked
2017-18 Stats: 21.4 PPG, 12.5 RPG, 1.6 BPG, 1.4 APG, 1.3 SPG
MVP Performance: 35 points, 15 rebounds, two assists vs. USC Upstate (11/10)
Last year, the Big Ten had a double-double machine who spent virtually the entire season ranked among the top five candidates to win the Wooden Award.
With Purdue's Caleb Swanigan moving on to the NBA, Minnesota's Jordan Murphy has ascended to that throne.
Not only is Murphy averaging a double-double, but he has at least 16 points and 10 rebounds in every game this season. That includes going for 20 and 10 in just 22 minutes against Alabama A&M. It also includes Saturday's wacky game against Alabama, in which Murphy had 19 points and 12 rebounds by halftime.
In three of eight contests, he has recorded at least eight offensive rebounds—which becomes even more incredible when you consider Minnesota is shooting better than 50 percent from the field as a team.
There's a lot of Bonzie Colson in Murphy's game. He's a talented but undersized 4 who makes a significant impact on both ends by simply having more give-a-damn than anyone else on the floor. And now that I've made that comparison, my first and foremost request from the NCAA tournament selection committee will be a second round or Sweet 16 battle between Minnesota and Notre Dame.
Without a doubt, Murphy is the super glue holding these Golden Gophers together. There were some concerns about Minnesota this offseason when we found out frontcourt reserve Eric Curry would miss the entire season with a knee injury. But with Murphy playing like this alongside shot-blocking aficionado Reggie Lynch, who needs a backup big man?
3. Jalen Brunson, Villanova
Preseason Rank: 3
2017-18 Stats: 18.4 PPG, 4.3 APG, 3.1 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 52.0% 3PT
MVP Performance: 25 points, six assists, four rebounds, one steal vs. Tennessee (11/23)
There's a strong case to be made that Mikal Bridges—not Jalen Brunson—is actually Villanova's most valuable player. Bridges is certainly the more impactful piece on the defensive end, and it wouldn't be ludicrous to argue that Bridges has been the better half of this one-two punch on offense.
However, Brunson was a preseason first-team All-American who will enter December with a 74.7 effective field-goal percentage and a 76.4 true-shooting percentage. He's also averaging better than four assists per turnover while guiding one of the most efficient offenses in the nation.
Thus, we aren't yet ready to vault Bridges ahead of Brunson, and it's kind of an unspoken rule for the first month of the season that you don't nominate two players from the same team as top-10 POY candidates. If that rule were going to be broken for any team, though, it would be Villanova.
What's most admirable about Brunson is that he never forces the issue, yet he has a knack for knowing when it's time to take matters into his own hands.
In the Battle 4 Atlantis semifinal against Tennessee, Villanova trailed by a dozen at halftime. Within the first 100 seconds after the intermission, he had four points, two rebounds and an assist and had jump-started a comeback in which the Wildcats tied the game before the first media timeout. He either scored or assisted on seven of Villanova's first eight buckets of the second half. And when Tennessee tried to make things interesting again midway through the half, he took over once again.
The other big thing to love is how lethal he is near the rim. Brunson is shooting 72.9 percent from inside the arc because he's such a gifted finisher around the trees. He isn't quite in the same class as a Kyrie Irving or Isaiah Thomas in that regard, but among college point guards, he's easily one of the best of the past decade. It's why he's so difficult to stop once he decides it's time to take over.
2. Bonzie Colson, Notre Dame
Preseason Rank: 2
2017-18 Stats: 20.0 PPG, 10.5 RPG, 2.3 BPG, 1.8 SPG, 1.5 APG
MVP Performance: 25 points, 11 rebounds, two blocks, two steals, one assist vs. Wichita State (11/22)
Bonzie Colson has always been an excellent rebounder for his size (6'6") and an efficient scorer. But last year, he made the proverbial leap, adding volume to his efficiency with a significant uptick in minutes per game and shot attempts. In the process, he somehow became a more efficient scorer and an even better rebounder. He also became a viable three-point weapon.
He entered this season as a first-team All-American, and he has gotten even better.
Per Sports Reference, Colson averaged 32.6 points, 18.5 rebounds, 2.6 blocks and 2.0 steals per 100 possessions last season. Through six games, those numbers are 38.6, 20.3, 4.5 and 3.5, respectively.
Colson has recorded double-doubles in four games, and he should at least have a fifth in that category. (He finished with 15 points and nine rebounds in just 24 minutes in a blowout of Chicago State.) He had five blocks against Chicago State and five steals against LSU, and has tallied at least three combined blocks and steals in five straight games.
But it was his performance against Wichita State in the Maui Invitational championship that cemented his spot in the top three. Playing his third game in the span of about 50 hours, Colson scored 17 of his game-high 25 points in the second half, leading the Fighting Irish back from a 16-point halftime deficit. And it was because of Colson's toughness and aggression that Wichita State's big man, Shaquille Morris, played just 18 minutes due to foul trouble.
Notre Dame only plays Duke once during the regular season, but make sure you circle Jan. 29 on your calendars. That battle between Colson and Marvin Bagley III may well determine who wins the Wooden Award.
1. Marvin Bagley III, Duke
Preseason Rank: 6
2017-18 Stats: 22.3 PPG, 11.1 RPG, 1.6 APG
MVP Performance: 34 points, 15 rebounds, two assists, one steal vs. Texas (11/24)
If we take out the game against Michigan State in which Marvin Bagley III only played 10 minutes because he got poked in the eye, he's actually averaging 24.6 points and 11.8 rebounds per game.
Not too shabby for a guy who was going to be a senior in high school prior to reclassifying in August.
Because of his run in the PK80—15 rebounds in each game; averaged 27.3 points—Bagley has become the obvious front-runner for the Wooden Award. And with Michael Porter Jr. potentially missing the entire season (except for two minutes) due to injury, Bagley has also become the clear favorite for first college player selected in the 2018 NBA draft.
Long story short, Bagley looks like a man playing against boys. Even against Texas and Mohamed Bamba—one of the other big men who entered the season in the running for No. 1 pick—the opposition simply had no answer for Bagley.
In Bamba's defense, it's impossible for one man to guard both Bagley and Wendell Carter Jr., and he only managed to play 26 minutes before fouling out. Bagley actually did most of his work against Dylan Osetkowski and Jericho Sims.
But if we put an asterisk on every game in which a team didn't have enough quality big men to slow down Duke's frontcourt, it would just be an entire schedule's worth of asterisks. Michigan State is one of the only teams in the country equipped to go to war with this Blue Devils brigade of big men, and Bagley was well on his way to destroying the Spartans before the aforementioned eye injury.
We'll see if he can get a little more consistent with the perimeter shot he insists on breaking out a couple of times per game, and college fans and NBA scouts alike will be keeping an eye on his development on the defensive end. Right now, though, Bagley with the ball in the paint and only one defender on his hip is arguably the most dangerous proposition in the country. Duke could win games just by lobbing him the ball 50 times a night.
Advanced statistics courtesy of KenPom and Sports Reference.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.
Read 0 Comments
Download the app for comments Get the B/R app to join the conversation