Rocky Widner/Getty Images

Reimagining the Biggest NBA Free-Agency 'What Ifs' in History

Adam Fromal

Unfortunately, our DeLorean can only reach 87 miles per hour. 

We don't have the power to go back and change the course of NBA history, but we can at least peer into the annals and figure out what might have gone differently if a few key free agents had made different choices. It's not always as simple as analyzing the unfolding events that could've stemmed from staying in place rather than departing, since so many factors are in play for each decision. 

Ultimately, we don't know how history would've shifted for each of these hypotheticals. Our time-turners aren't that powerful.

But we can at least try to figure it out.   

1976: Robertson v. National Basketball Association Has a Different Result

Dick Raphael/Getty Images

Conversations about free-agency hypotheticals must begin with Oscar Robertson's landmark court case, which prompted the start of the modern-day offseason. 

The Hall of Famer filed the antirust suit in 1970, though it wouldn't reach a verdict until six years later. ESPN.com's Ron Flatter provided more details:

"As president of the players union, his 1970 suit against the NBA contended the draft, option clause and other rules restricting player movement were violations of antitrust laws. The suit was settled in 1976, when the league agreed to let players become free agents in exchange for their old team's 'right of first refusal' to match any offer they might receive."

This eventual ruling marked the beginning of free agency as we know it today, allowing players to move around the league as they saw fit and ending teams' restrictive and lengthy control over their on-court assets with the interminable option clause. 

"It was amazing how so many owners didn't really understand it; they thought free agency was going to kill basketball and basketball would never be the same," the legendary point guard told the New York Times' William C. Rhoden in 2016. "And it's true. Basketball has never been the same since then."

No, it hasn't. 

Without Robertson's willingness to challenge the NBA itself, these coming hypotheticals never would have existed. 

1982: Moses Malone Never Joins the Sixers

Jim Cummins/Getty Images

Technically, this wasn't solely a free-agency decision. 

Moses Malone, who had already earned two of his three career MVPs during his time with the Houston Rockets, decided to join the Philadelphia 76ers in the summer of 1982 after perusing the available landing spots. The restricted free agent agreed to a six-year, $13.2 million contract with Philadelphia that the Rockets subsequently matched, even though they knew they couldn't match some of the strange financial clauses contained in the offer sheet. 

How strange? Well, the Rockets and the NBA itself both brought legal challenges against the contract. For example, per the New York Times' Sam Goldaper back in 1982: 

"The N.B.A. also is disputing the clause based on a percentage of the home gate. Last season, Houston just went over the $3 million mark in home gate receipts; the 76ers perennially go over $3 million. The N.B.A. contends that attendance bonus clauses violate the provision of the Robertson settlement that expressly prohibits an N.B.A. team from making an offer that is designed to defeat the prior team's ability to match the offer." 

Eventually, the Rockets just decided to trade Malone—a precursor to the modern-day sign-and-trade, if you will. They shipped him off to Philadelphia, netting Caldwell Jones and a first-round pick in the 1983 NBA draft that would become Rodney McCray. 

But just imagine what would have happened if Malone's offer sheet was deemed to violate the collective bargaining agreement and Houston retained the big man. 

He won a ring with the Sixers the very next season, teaming up with Julius Erving, Andrew Toney, Maurice Cheeks and Bobby Jones, and he won his lone Finals MVP as well. That was also the year of the infamous "Fo', Fo', Fo'" prediction, which didn't ultimately come true but still resonates to this day. 

Strike those moments and accomplishments from the record books in this made-up situation. 

1996: Shaquille O'Neal Avoids Tinseltown

Fernando Medina/Getty Images

"In 1996, there was no maximum salary provision in the CBA. There was a salary cap, $24.3 million to be exact, but no max salary and no luxury tax penalty (both were products of the 1998 lockout)...." Joel Corry, who once worked as a consultant for Shaquille O'Neal's agent, explained in a gripping inside story of the 1996 free-agency decision for CBS Sports. "This meant that Orlando could've thrown a blank check at Shaq...and, I believe, ended the negotiation before it started."

Corry's story is well worth reading in its entirety. But that's the linchpin—the moment of no return for the Orlando Magic. 

The organization that originally drafted the future Hall of Famer lowballed him with its initial offer, leading to a complicated series of events that included the Los Angeles Lakers cutting salary and eventually outbidding the Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat, Atlanta Hawks and New York Knicks. 

History would've unfolded rather differently in every one of these other potential landing spots, as one of the greatest centers in the NBA archives would've had superstar running mates almost across the board. 

Imagine O'Neal teaming up with Grant Hill and Allan Houston in the Motor City, potentially shouldering such a workload that he could've kept the uber-talented small forward from experiencing so many crippling injuries. Think about O'Neal and Alonzo Mourning forming twin towers for the Heat while Tim Hardaway moved into his 30s. 

Atlanta didn't have any true superstars, but a five-man core of O'Neal, Steve Smith, Mookie Blaylock, Christian Laettner and Stacey Augmon would've made serious noise in the Eastern Conference. Patrick Ewing, Anthony Mason, John Starks and the rest of the Knicks were moving out of their primes, but O'Neal in the Big Apple would've been a sight to behold—and surely attracted more big names to one of the world's largest media markets. 

Hell, he could've stayed in Orlando and continued building chemistry with Anfernee "Penny" Hardaway. The Magic had already advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals in 1996, and they might've been able to impede the Chicago Bulls' path if they continued developing in concert. 

Plus, we can't overlook what the Lakers might've lost. Would Kobe Bryant have turned into a legendary figure without his primary early-career running mate? Would Phil Jackson's reputation have been lessened without one more three-peat? Would Los Angeles have peeled away a different superstar to pair with Bryant? 

2002: Chauncey Billups Never Lands in Detroit

David Sherman/Getty Images

The Detroit Pistons needed Chauncey Billups to win a title. 

Though defense was the fundamental identity of the 2003-04 iteration and Ben Wallace may well have been the team's best player, it wouldn't have survived the postseason gauntlet without Billups leading the charge at point. Even if it had still worked past the Milwaukee Bucks, New Jersey Nets and Indiana Pacers, it almost surely would've lost to a super-powered Los Angeles Lakers squad. 

Lest we forget, the Purple and Gold featured Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O'Neal, Gary Payton and Karl Malone. The last two were past their primes, but they were still valuable contributors who helped the Lakers advance to that ultimate round of the playoff proceedings. 

And imagine if they'd won. 

Sure, whoever displaced these Pistons in the Eastern Conference could've taken down the Lake Show. But if they hadn't, four titles in a five-year stretch might've made it even harder for the Bryant-O'Neal breakup to occur and plunge the Lakers into the lottery one season later. And from there, the ripple effects are rather extensive and unwieldy. 

But it all started with Billups' decision two seasons before Detroit's eventual championship. 

Had he chosen to wait out Terrell Brandon's knee injury and stick with the Minnesota Timberwolves, with whom he'd spent the last two years, he could've played with the MVP version of Kevin Garnett and helped create a juggernaut in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Instead, he opted for a move to Michigan and eventually earned that "Mr. Big Shot" moniker. 

He likely doesn't have any regrets, even if staying put could've created a brighter future. More success was by no means guaranteed, but it was certainly possible.

2004: Mark Cuban Doesn't See Age with Steve Nash

Glenn James/Getty Images

 "I'll say it now, if you would have told me Steve [Nash] would have been playing eight years later, I would have bet any amount of money you'd be wrong..." Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban told the Star-Telegram's Dwain Price in 2012. "I thought he would fall apart before it mattered. All the advice I got from everybody we had was that he was going to fall apart. He proved us wrong—and more power to him."

Two years later, he doubled down. 

"Letting Steve Nash go. I learned an expensive lesson," the outspoken entrepreneur revealed to Rolling Stone's Kenneth Arthur. "It took me too many years to realize that for some GMs, their number-one job wasn't winning a championship, it's keeping their job. It's easy to look back and see my mistakes today. I wish I would have been smart enough to know better back then."

What if Steve Nash had never walked away from Dallas in 2004?

Had the Mavericks been willing to offer him a max contract, as the Phoenix Suns did that summer, they might have retained his services and blossomed into a dynastic force in the Western Conference. 

Instead, they had to watch as he racked up two Maurice Podoloff trophies in the desert and spearheaded one of the greatest offenses the sport has ever witnessed. Without Nash running the show in Phoenix, Shawn Marion and Amar'e Stoudemire might have been more forgettable forces. Head coach Mike D'Antoni might not be known for his offensive genius and ability to milk every ounce of production out of his point guards. 

And the Mavericks might've been unstoppable. 

Dallas lost in the first round to the Sacramento Kings right before Nash's departure, but that was also Josh Howard's rookie season. Had he developed alongside both the long-haired point guard and Dirk Nowitzki, the results might've blown away even our wildest expectations. 

2010: Superteam in Chicago

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

See Derrick Lose looking sad in that picture above? He knows what could've happened.

Dwyane Wade and LeBron James were legitimately thinking about joining the Chicago Bulls instead of forming a Miami Heat superteam during the summer of 2010, which would've changed everything. 

"My eyes were here; LeBron's eyes were here," Wade told CSN Chicago's Vincent Goodwill, referring to Chicago while reminiscing about that fateful summer. "Miami put a monkey wrench in the plan when they could fit all three of us."

But the Bulls might actually have been able to afford Chris Bosh as well. Had they sloughed off Luol Deng's salary to the Los Angeles Clippers, the Big Three may have assembled in the Windy City and added Rose into the picture. 

The Chicago point guard—ironically enough, now set to play with James on the Cleveland Cavaliers—was coming off a sterling sophomore season in which he'd made his first All-Star squad. He blossomed into an MVP during the Big Three's first post-Decision campaign, although that may not have happened if he were sharing the rock with so many fellow stars. 

But what about his knees? Could his career have gone differently if he didn't need to shoulder such a massive workload and was able to defer to his teammates? How different might his legacy be if it also contained a few championships earned in his prime? 

Choosing Miami over Chicago worked out well for Bosh, Wade and James. But that success might've been attainable in any location, and a different one may have set Rose on an entirely different trajectory. 

2016: Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, Still Together

Noah Graham/Getty Images

The 2016-17 Golden State Warriors unequivocally asserted themselves as one of the greatest teams in NBA history. According to a calculation from a previous installment of my Metrics 101 series, they trail only the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls and 1970-71 Milwaukee Bucks. 

But what if Kevin Durant had decided to remain loyal to the Oklahoma City Thunder and continue working alongside Russell Westbrook? The far-reaching implications would still be unravelling, but let's just take a few into account:

That's already a drastic shift.

Nothing Durant did was inherently wrong. You might disagree with his decision to join a record-setting team that wasn't losing any major pieces, but that remains his prerogative under the current free-agent system and CBA. 

For that, he can thank Oscar Robertson. 

          

Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.

Unless otherwise indicated, all stats from Basketball ReferenceNBA.comNBA Math or ESPN.com.

   

Read 0 Comments

Download the app for comments Get the B/R app to join the conversation

Install the App
×
Bleacher Report
(120K+)