Featuring Bryan Bullington, and more! Al Behrman/Associated Press

MLB Metrics 101: The MLB Draft's Biggest No. 1 Pick Fails

Zachary D. Rymer

Wasting the No. 1 pick in the Major League Baseball draft is bad. What's even worse is wasting the pick and missing out on a generational talent.

What are the most extreme examples of that? Sounds like a job for Bleacher Report's MLB Metrics 101.

Hello, and welcome back. This week's topic is the biggest No. 1 pick fails in MLB draft history. This is not to be confused with the biggest No. 1 "busts," which strictly involves looking at which picks turned out the worst.

Looking for the biggest "fails" involves looking at both each year's No. 1 pick and the best player to emerge from the first round that year. In essence: Where are the biggest gaps between the player who actually went No. 1 and who, in a perfect would, should have gone No. 1?

So strap on some hindsight goggles if you have 'em. And for more on how this is going to work, read on.

Methodology

RON FREHM/Associated Press

The idea here is fairly straightforward:

There's one question that many of you might have: Instead of the best first-rounders, why not find the difference between each No. 1 pick and the best players taken in any round that year?

Even in something as hindsight-heavy as this, some fairness is required. It would be easy to wag a finger at the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for taking Josh Hamilton instead of Albert Pujols in 1999. But since Pujols didn't get picked until the 13th round, he was never a realistic option at No. 1 anyway.

Granted, this might not be the case for some second- or third-rounders throughout history. But just to be safe, the focus will stay confined to the first round.

For full results, go here. Otherwise, it's on to some honorable mentions and then a top 10.

Honorable Mentions

Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images

Ben McDonald over Frank Thomas, 1989

Ben McDonald went on to have a solid, if unspectacular, career after the Baltimore Orioles selected him at No. 1. He pitched nine seasons and amassed 20.8 WAR before a shoulder injury forced him into early retirement.

But, oh, what could have been if the Orioles had sprung for Frank Thomas instead. He went No. 7 to the Chicago White Sox and ultimately produced 52.8 more WAR than McDonald.

     

Luke Hochevar over Clayton Kershaw, 2006

Luke Hochevar had his moments after the Kansas City Royals picked him at No. 1 in 2006, but not enough of them. He produced 3.1 WAR in nine seasons and is now no longer an active major leaguer.

Unfortunately for the Royals, the rest of the 2006 first round produced stars like Evan Longoria, Max Scherzer, Tim Lincecum and...[drum roll]...Clayton Kershaw. He's at 57.2 WAR and counting. Even if it's not technically there yet, this surely will become one of the all-time worst draft fails.

      

Dave Roberts over Chet Lemon, 1972

The San Diego Padres took Dave Roberts No. 1 and skipped him right to the major leagues. He had a breakout season in 1973 but never built on it. Ultimately, he managed just 0.4 WAR in nine seasons.

Fortunately for the Padres, the rest of the 1972 first round didn't yield any superstars. But it did yield Chet Lemon. He made three All-Star teams and amassed 55.5 WAR in 16 seasons.

     

Mark Appel over Kris Bryant, 2013

Like Hochever over Kershaw, the Houston Astros' selection of Mark Appel is fast becoming one of the worst selections in history. Appel is no longer in the Astros organization and has yet to appear in the majors. The guy taken after him, meanwhile, was a fella named Kris Bryant. He's doing OK.

And speaking of bad No. 1 picks by the Astros...

10. Phil Nevin over Derek Jeter, 1992

Tom Hauck/Getty Images
No. 1 Pick WAR Top 1st-Round WAR Difference
15.8   71.8 56.0 

9. Bryan Bullington over Zack Greinke, 2002

J. Meric/Getty Images
No. 1 Pick WAR Top 1st-Round WAR Difference
 -0.2  57.2  57.4

Way back in the summer of 2002, it was possible to look at Bryan Bullington and see a future ace. He had the build, and he had the stuff.

But the Pittsburgh Pirates? They actually didn't have their hopes set on Bullington becoming a No. 1 starter even after they used the No. 1 pick on him.

"We feel comfortable projecting him as a No. 3 starter," said GM Dave Littlefield, per Ron Cook of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

As it turned out, Bullington didn't even become that. He began to struggle as he climbed the minor league ladder and was dealt a significant blow when he had shoulder surgery in 2005. By the time he bolted for Japan in 2011, he had just 26 major league appearances and a 5.62 ERA to his name.

Now 15 years later, Bullington is one of few non-success stories from the first round of the 2002 draft.

It produced Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, Prince Fielder, Nick Swisher, Denard Span and, best of all, Zack Greinke. He went No. 6 to the Kansas City Royals and became, well, Zack Greinke.

As scouting director Deric Ladnier told Alan Askew of Baseball America"This was the best kid on the board. I was sweating it out, hoping he would get to us."

8. Danny Goodwin over Frank Tanana, 1971

RH/Associated Press
No. 1 Pick WAR Top 1st-Round WAR Difference
-1.7 57.9 59.6

Here's a bit of trivia: Danny Goodwin is the only player to ever get picked No. 1 twice.

The Chicago White Sox took him No. 1 in 1971, and the California Angels took him No. 1 in 1975. He was good enough for the honors the first time around but wasn't laser-focused on getting paid.

"The bonus is important, of course," he said, per the Associated Press (via Newspapers.com), "but my parents and I also consider a college education very important."

According to Bruce Markusen of The Hardball Times, the White Sox offered the high school catcher $60,000. Unimpressed, he rejected it and went to Southern University in Louisiana.

Given that Goodwin went on to become the least productive major leaguer out of all No. 1 picks, the White Sox did indeed dodge a bullet. But if they'd had a better read on his signability, they might have used their No. 1 pick on somebody else.

Such as Hall of Fame outfielder Jim Rice, who was picked at No. 15. Or, even better, Frank Tanana. The left-hander went at No. 13 and is one of the best pitchers not in Cooperstown.

By contrast, the best first-rounder in '75 ended up being Rick Cerone. Here's a hint: You have no idea who he is for a reason.

7. Ron Blomberg over Bobby Grich, 1967

Harry Harris/Associated Press
No. 1 Pick WAR Top 1st-Round WAR Difference
9.4 70.9 61.5

In theory, the MLB draft was devised in 1965 to curb the dominance of teams like the New York Yankees.

For decades, no young player had been beyond their financial reach. Not so coincidentally, they played in the World Series 29 times between 1921 and 1964.

But then in 1966, it all fell apart. So in 1967, just the third year of the draft, they had the first pick.

Their choice was Ron Blomberg, who they were certain was going to be their next franchise centerpiece.

“I feel Ronnie is the best pro prospect to come along in several years,” said general manager Lee MacPhail, per Baseball America. “We had six of our scouts watch Ronnie and they unanimously agreed that he was the one we should sign. I figure it will take him about three years to reach the majors.”

Except not, as it turned out. Slowed by a limited skill set, Blomberg ultimately spent eight major league seasons as a mere part-time player. Today, his biggest claim to fame is being the first-ever designated hitter.

Instead of Blomberg, a better franchise cornerstone would have been Bobby Grich. He went No. 19 overall and went on to become one of the best (and most underrated) second basemen ever.

6. Shawn Abner over Mark McGwire, 1984

George Gojkovich/Getty Images
No. 1 Pick WAR Top 1st-Round WAR Difference
-1.3 62.0 63.3

The New York Mets drafted very well in the late 1970s and early 1980s, picking up Darryl Strawberry, Dwight Gooden, Lenny Dykstra, Wally Backman and Mookie Wilson.

So they had some cred going into the 1984 draft. And in picking Shawn Abner, they took a shot at adding to a growing movement at shortstop.

"A shortstop used to be a smallish guy who didn't have to hit as long as he was an excellent glove man," said Abner's father, per Jane Gross of the New York Times. "Now they're looking for bigger players who can hit the ball out of the park and, by God, I think the Mets have got one."

However, Abner never played a game for the Mets. He was traded to the San Diego Padres in 1986. Once there, he debuted in 1987 and never caught on in six seasons.

The Mets did well in that trade, notably getting five good seasons of Kevin McReynolds. So, credit where credit is due.

Still, they would have been better off using the No. 1 pick in the '84 draft on a slugging first baseman named Mark McGwire. He was picked 10th overall and went on to hit 583 home runs.

5. Brien Taylor over Manny Ramirez, 1991

LENNY IGNELZI/Associated Press
No. 1 Pick WAR Top 1st-Round WAR Difference
0 69.2 69.2

In 1991, 24 years after they swung and missed on Blomberg, the Yankees had the No. 1 pick again. This time, they used it on a can't-miss lefty out of North Carolina named Brien Taylor.

Although still a high schooler, Taylor was already 6'3" and could dial up mid-to-high-90s fastballs. And in his first two minor league seasons, he struck out 337 batters in 324.1 innings.

But then, disaster. In the winter of '93, Taylor was involved in a fight that literally tore apart his shoulder.

"I take him to Dr. Frank Jobe. He looks at me. 'This is the worst rotator cuff tear I've ever seen. It is completely off the bone,'" recalled agent Scott Boras for ESPN.com's Andrew Marchand in 2014.

That was pretty much that. Taylor never made it to the major leagues and threw his last pitch in organized baseball in 2000. In 2012, he landed in prison for drug distribution.

A story this sad is made only slightly sadder by who the Yankees missed out on in that 1991 draft.

The best of that first round was a New York high schooler named Manny Ramirez who went No. 13 to the Cleveland Indians. He hit 555 homers in the majors and, now 45 years old, is still going somewhere in Japan.

4. Steve Chilcott over Reggie Jackson, 1966

Harold Filan/Associated Press
No. 1 Pick WAR Top 1st-Round WAR Difference
0 73.8 73.8

Steve Chilcott is the only other player to be chosen No. 1 and never make it to the majors. And his story is also tragic.

The Mets chose the high school catcher with the No. 1 pick in the 1966 draft. By 1967, he looked ticketed for stardom. He was hitting .290 with an .832 OPS with the Mets' Single-A affiliate.

Then he was struck down by bad luck. He went diving back into second base on a pickoff attempt and, somehow, injured his right shoulder bad enough to end his season. Ultimately, it also crushed whatever hope he had of catching in the majors.

"I just couldn't throw a ball hard enough to break a pane of glass," he told Jeff Fletcher of the Los Angeles Times in 1994.

Chilcott did play five more seasons in the minor leagues, but he called it quits in 1972.

The guy who went immediately after Chilcott in the 1966 draft, meanwhile, was a college star named Reggie Jackson.

He went on to hit 563 home runs and win five World Series rings in a 21-year career. Allegedly because the Mets passed on him for race-related reasons, he did so while wearing a massive chip on his shoulder.

3. David Clyde over Robin Yount, 1973

Anonymous/Associated Press
No. 1 Pick WAR Top 1st-Round WAR Difference
0.7 77.0 76.3

David Clyde never stood a chance.

After throwing five no-hitters for Westchester High School in Houston, the lefty was both an unquestionably elite talent and a local hero when the Texas Rangers chose him with the first pick in the 1973 draft.

But rather than develop Clyde's talent, owner Bob Short sought to capitalize on his fame.

"Short went for the fast buck," Whitey Herzog, the Rangers' manager at the time, told Dave Anderson of the New York Times in 2003. "Short sure wasn't going to send [Clyde] down without getting some people in the ballpark to see him."

Clyde made his major league debut on June 27, 1973, mere weeks after being drafted. It went well, but things deteriorated from there. He would make just 83 more appearances in the majors and, although he was still only 26, hung 'em up in 1981.

Had the Rangers drafted with their heads and not their wallets, they might have drafted either of the two Hall of Famers who were also top-five picks in 1973.

One was Dave Winfield, who went at No. 4 and went on to hit 465 home runs. Even better, they could have had Robin Yount, who went at No. 3 and went on to win two MVPs.

2. Tim Belcher over Roger Clemens, 1983

Bob Galbraith/Associated Press
No. 1 Pick WAR Top 1st-Round WAR Difference
26.2  140.3 114.1

Tim Belcher actually had a solid major league career. He pitched for 14 seasons, notably serving as a key piece on the great Los Angeles Dodgers teams of the late 1980s.

But of all the good pitching Belcher did, exactly none came while he was wearing a Minnesota Twins uniform. They wanted him bad enough to pick him at No. 1 in 1983, but they were unwilling (and perhaps unable) to sign him.

"The expected going rate for the first pick was just a touch over six figures, $100,000 or $125,000. The Twins were nowhere near offering that," Belcher told Erik Malinowski for Fox Sports in 2014.

Belcher was later drafted No. 1 by the Yankees in the January draft (yep, that used to be a thing) of 1984. He later ended up with the Dodgers in 1987 and went from there.

At any rate, the first round of that 1983 draft was when the Boston Red Sox picked a hard-throwing righty out of Texas by the name of Roger Clemens at No. 19. All he did was win seven Cy Youngs en route to becoming arguably (and there is an argument) the greatest pitcher ever.

It's possible the Twins would have skimped on signing him, too. But if they could go back now, they'd probably like to at least find out.

1. B.J. Surhoff over Barry Bonds, 1985

Focus On Sport/Getty Images
No. 1 Pick WAR Top 1st-Round WAR Difference
34.3 162.4 128.1

B.J. Surhoff was the first player taken in a 1985 draft that ranks as the best in MLB history.

"Without question, that's the best draft. We knew it at the time it happened that it would be the best to that date, and it's stood the test of time," Baseball America founder Allan Simpson told MLB.com's Gary Rausch in 2002.

Surhoff is part of the reason why. He spent 19 seasons in the major leagues, peaking as an All-Star in 1999 and otherwise serving as a solid, dependable player.

But after Surhoff went Will Clark at No. 2. Then Barry Larkin at No. 4. Later in the first round went Rafael Palmeiro. Randy Johnson went in the second round. John Smoltz later went in the 22nd round.

And then there's the Arizona State outfielder who went at No. 6 overall to the Pirates: Barry Bonds.

Why not higher? According to Baseball America (via Newspapers.com), the warning was that "a lot of teams aren't sold on his makeup or his lack of development at ASU."

In fairness, Bobby Bonds' son never did become known for his makeup. But 22 years later, he ended his career with a record 762 home runs and more WAR than any player not named Babe Ruth.

So, he panned out OK.

Data courtesy of Baseball Reference. Stats up to date through Monday's games. 

   

Read 0 Comments

Download the app for comments Get the B/R app to join the conversation

Install the App
×
Bleacher Report
(120K+)