Some NFL general managers prefer not to rock the proverbial boat. As such, it's rare for them to roll the dice on a big-money free agent or pull off a huge draft day trade. 

Green Bay's Ted Thompson is a prime example. Most would point to the success the Packers have enjoyed during his time at the top as a testament to how he's run things in Titletown.

Other general managers across the league, meanwhile, are far more aggressive. Take former New York Giants GM Ernie Accorsi, who paid a huge price to acquire Eli Manning from the San Diego Chargers during the 2004 draft. Manning rewarded Accorsi's bravado with a pair of Super Bowl wins.

Accorsi's successor, Jerry Reese, went the gambling route just last year, and that spending spree on defense got the Giants back in the playoffs after a four-year absence. It also may well have saved Reese's job.

Such moves don't always pay off. Instead, they sometimes backfire in spectacular fashion. The Washington Redskins found that out the hard way when they traded up to grab Robert Griffin in 2012, although at least they got one playoff trip from the deal. If his rookie year was any indication, Jared Goff might not even give the Los Angeles Rams that.

There has been no shortage of aggressive signings and wheeling and dealing in 2017, from another defensive spending spree in Jacksonville to Houston Texans GM Rick Smith trying to undo in 2017 what he did in 2016. Given the financial and draft resources involved in those moves, they carry more than a little risk.

And that's the thing. The easiest way to determine the risk inherent to a personnel move is to look at the fallout were it to fail spectacularly. The bigger that crater is, the riskier the move.

Call it the Ryan Leaf theory. Not everyone remembers this part, but the Chargers actually traded up to No. 2 back in 1998 before making what some view as the worst draft pick in NFL history.

With that in mind, here's a breakdown of the biggest moves of this offseason, and whether the teams involved will look like heroes or zeroes when the dust settles.

Is Deshaun Watson the Texans' Franchise Savior?

If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.

One year after moving aggressively to sign Brock Osweiler in free agency, Houston Texans general manager Rick Smith again jumped in with both feet at the quarterback position. That he did so twice in two years tells you all you need to know about how the Osweiler signing worked out.

Now, despite dealing two first-round picks to Cleveland to move up to No. 12 for Clemson signal-caller Deshaun Watson, Houston has insisted it won't thrust Watson out there before he's ready. Head coach Bill O'Brien told ESPN's Sarah Barshop he wants Watson to take things nice and slow.

"Show up every day and get better. Simple as that," O'Brien said. "Every single day, improve on the things that you need to improve on. There's always going to be something, whether it's a playcall or footwork or some type of decision at the line of scrimmage, that maybe you made a mistake on the day before or answered a question wrong in the meeting or whatever it is, let's fix that. Let's get better every single day. It's a progress league. It's about improvement every single day."

That's all well and good, but the Texans were a playoff team last year. They have aspirations of a deeper run in 2017. And Savage is hardly a proven commodity. He has as many career touchdown passes as Watson. (Zero.)

Given that, it's little surprise that pundits such as Adam Schien of NFL.com are predicting Watson will be starting sooner rather than later.

"Two years ago, Bill O'Brien was so sick of his nominal starting quarterback, Brian Hoyer, that he yanked him in the middle of the season opener," Schein wrote. "Last year, Brock Osweiler made O'Brien sick all season—and he got rid of him. Do you think the coach is going to let this coming season start with a QB controversy? Deshaun Watson was drafted to be the man."

The class of 2017 wasn't great at quarterback, but Watson was the best of the bunch. He's been in the spotlight, played in the big games and won them.

Watson may never be a superstar. But he's going to lead the Texans to the playoffs in his first NFL season.

Verdict: Boom

Jaguars Spend Huge on Defense...Again

Smith wasn't the only general manager in the AFC South who went the deja vu route in 2017.

For the second year in a row, the Jaguars spent huge in free agency on defense. The cornerstone of that spree was defensive end Calais Campbell, who inked a four-year, $60 million contract early on. In addition to Campbell, Jacksonville also handed out robust contracts to cornerback A.J. Bouye (five years, $67.5 million) and safety Barry Church (four years, $26 million).

Those newcomers join a Jaguars defense that already possessed legitimate talent. Defensive lineman Malik Jackson was the team's big free-agent acquisition last year. Defensive end Dante Fowler and cornerback Jalen Ramsey are both former top-five picks. Add in a linebacker corps that features long-time stalwart Paul Posluszny and youngsters Myles Jack and Telvin Smith, and this is a loaded defense from front to back.

There are a few causes for concern. Campbell, like Jackson before him, is a big-bodied lineman making the switch from a three-man front to the 4-3 this year. Bouye was great for the Houston Texans in 2016, but he was an unknown reserve before last season .

And last year at this time, many were talking up an improved Jaguars defense. The team finished the year sixth in total defense—and 25th in scoring defense.

The Jaguars might not morph into the Texans this year, but it's hard to imagine a scenario where they don't improve defensively in 2017. It would help if the offense can stay on the field for more than three downs at a time.

Verdict: Boom

Jacksonville Gambles on Offense

After spending the fourth overall pick on Leonard Fournette in the 2017 NFL draft, Jacksonville head coach Doug Marrone recently insisted the former LSU tailback won't automatically be thrust into the starting lineup as the team's workhorse in the backfield.

"Obviously when we made the pick, we were thinking about [how] he can be someone like that," Marrone said. "Obviously he's shown that ability, but at the same sense, when you have the team, the one thing about a team is you have to earn that. So he's going to have to go and show that he has to do that."

Fournette said he'll gladly embrace whatever the team has in mind for him.

"My role is to do whatever the team needs or coach asks me to do," Fournette said. "My role right now is going out there and competing and getting better right now."

That's all well and good, but let's get real. You don't burn a top-five pick on a tailback so that he can split time with T.J. Yeldon and Chris Ivory. The Jaguars drafted Fournette with one vision in mind—the vision of last year's No. 4 overall pick leading the NFL in rushing as a rookie.

Those expectations could pose the biggest threat to Fournette in 2017.

From a talent standpoint, few will argue that Fournette isn't comparable in talent to Ezekiel Elliott of the Dallas Cowboys. In fact, three of five NFL executives told NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah they'd prefer to have Fournette over Elliott. 

"You don't see guys with Fournette's size/speed combination very often," one executive said. "He's a rare, rare talent. He's the most talented runner to come out since Adrian Peterson."

While the backs may be comparable in talent, the offensive lines they run behind are not. The Dallas Cowboys possessed the best line in football last season. The Jaguars, meanwhile, ranked 27th in run blocking, per Football Outsiders.

Yes, the Jaguars took steps to improve that line in 2017. But it's not in the same zip code as the Cowboys. Throw in a quarterback in Blake Bortles who's coming off a wildly uneven year, and Fournette's going to be the focal point for opposing defenses from Day 1. Eight-man fronts all day long.

Fournette is a talented young tailback, and he's going to be a fine pro. But if he doesn't have 750 rushing yards at the halfway point of the season, folks are going to start asking what's "wrong" with him.

A case of perception trumping reality.

Verdict: Bust

Windy City Merry-Go-Round at QB

To say it's been a rough offseason for Chicago Bears general manager Ryan Pace is an understatement.

It was hardly a surprise that Pace and the Bears decided to move on from quarterback Jay Cutler. But man oh man, did the wheels come off the bus after that.

First, the Bears moved to replace Cutler by signing former Tampa Bay Buccanners backup Mike Glennon to a three-year, $45 million contract. In fairness, the deal only has $18.5 million guaranteed, but the Bears just handed that much money to a player who has attempted all of 11 passes since 2014.

"The biggest problem with the contract is that it's looking like the Bears were bidding against themselves to land Glennon," Steven Ruiz wrote for Bears Wire. "The Jets were reportedly interested in the former Buc, but not at the price the Bears paid for him."

Outbidding themselves has been a theme for Pace and the Bears this offseason.

On April 27, Chicago dropped jaws across the league, trading a package of picks to the San Francisco 49ers to move up from No. 3 to No. 2 so it could take North Carolina quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. According to ESPN's Chris Mortensen (via Will Brinson of CBS Sports), head coach John Fox reportedly wasn't even in the loop on the Trubisky trade talks until hours before the draft.

Now, the Bears are now paying Glennon $18.5 million to be a placeholder. He knows it, and he's not happy about it, according to Rich Campbell of the Chicago Tribune. Meanwhile, many Chicago fans already loathe Trubisky before he ever takes a snap.

If the rookie turns out to be a solid NFL starter, that will all be forgotten. But after studying Trubisky's film, Bleacher Report's Doug Farrar isn't confident that will happen.

Pace has spent this offseason flailing around like a man who is afraid he's going to lose his job. It shows.

Verdict: Double bust

Bengals Draft Another 'Red Flag' Player

Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon knows that in the eyes of some people, he will never be more than the young man who punched a woman while at the University of Oklahoma. But that doesn't mean he's going to stop trying to be more than that.

"People try to perpetrate me as some type of bad guy, some monster for one mistake I made three years ago," Mixon told ESPN's Elizabeth Merrill. "I want people to get around me, to come talk to me, to be comfortable. I'm not trying to really prove anything. I just want people to get around me and get a feel for me. If they don't like me then, hey, so be it. I'm sorry they feel like that. I want to go out and help kids maybe. I want to help and talk at shelters with women. I hope to make a difference."

The Bengals selecting Mixon in Round 2 of the 2017 draft wasn't a huge surprise. Between Adam Jones and Vontaze Burfict, Cincinnati has shown a willingness in recent years to look past character concerns.

The problem, at least according to Bleacher Report's Mike Freeman, is that both Jones and Burfict have shown that Cincy isn't necessarily the best landing spot for Mixon.

"As talented a coach as [Marvin] Lewis is, at times, players in that locker room take advantage of him," Freeman wrote. "He's respected by players (really by almost everyone in football), but they don't always heed him. Mixon is a man who showed he cannot always control his violence, and he went to a team with two players notorious for the same thing. Pacman Jones and Vontaze Burfict, two of the leaders in that locker room, aren't necessarily good examples for Mixon to follow."

However, there are role models in that locker room. And wide receiver A.J. Green told Jason Marcum of SB Nation that he and quarterback Andy Dalton plan to mentor the young tailback.

"I'm a God-fearing guy and I feel like everybody deserves a second chance. I don't condone what he's done. He can't take that back," Green said. "I know he would like to. I feel like the Christian man in me, with my faith, that's the Christian way to do. I'm going to give the guy a chance. You don't look upon somebody, you help them. I feel like bringing him into the locker room with Andy and I being the leaders of the offense will really help him."

Mixon's talent has never been in question. Just his temperament. Bengals fans can only hope he keeps the latter under control, for reasons that go well beyond fame and football.

Verdict: Undecided

John 'The Dealmaker' Lynch

When the San Francisco 49ers surprisingly made John Lynch their new general manager, more than a few eyebrows went up around the NFL. After all, Lynch had as much front office experience as you and I do.

Well, either Lynch is better at his GM thing than folks thought, or he's watched Draft Day 138 times.

If one word can best describe Lynch's four-plus months on the job, it's "attack." He's thrown himself at San Francisco's talent-bereft roster with the same mentality he used while prowling the back end of an NFL defense, and it appears to be working.

Though Lynch didn't sign a marquee free agent, he sagely filled a number of holes by going with a quantity-over-quality approach. Quarterback Brian Hoyer, wide receiver Pierre Garcon and linebacker Malcolm Smith aren't worldbeaters, but they're each capable veterans and upgrades at their respective positions.

The 2017 NFL draft is where Lynch really got his Kevin Costner on, though.

The trade with the Bears was brilliant. The 49ers added three additional picks and still got Stanford edge-rusher Solomon Thomas, who they likely would have taken at No. 2 had they stood pat. We may never know why Pace felt compelled to move up one spot to grab Mitchell Trubisky, or whether Lynch made the Bears leery that another team was going to leap-frog them and grab the quarterback.

However it happened, Lynch fleeced the Bears. He wasn't done, either.

At the end of Round, 1 Lynch used some of that haul from the Bears to move back into the first round and take Alabama linebacker Reuben Foster. Concerns about Foster's surgically repaired shoulder dropped him on many boards, but Lynch wasn't swayed. 

"I can tell you right off the bat that what we had on the board was just under 200 players, and in terms of how we rated them, we got two of our top three players," Lynch told reporters after Day 1 of the draft. "We were able to do that, and we're thrilled. We're ecstatic. We think these guys have a lot of traits of what we want to be about as a football organization."

If Foster's shoulder holds up, he's going to be viewed as one of the biggest steals of the 2017 draft. He's that good a player—a top 10 prospect overall before his issues at the combine and medical red flags.

In one day, Lynch will have remade a San Francisco defense that was pitiful against the run in 2016. Turns out the new guy is apparently more John Elway and less Matt Millen. 

Verdict: Boom

No Offense for Ozzie Newsome

Ozzie Newsome has done the whole "former player turned executive" thing about as well as it can be done. In nearly 15 years at the helm of the Baltimore Ravens, Newsome has been instrumental in assembling teams that won two Super Bowls. He was also a true pioneer—the first African-American GM in NFL history.

However, Newsome and the Ravens have struggled in recent seasons. Baltimore missed the playoffs each of the last two years (for the first time in over a decade) and in three of four seasons since winning Super Bowl XLVII. After the Ravens' 2017 draft, Newsome's reputation may have taken a hit as well.

Heading into the draft, the general consensus was that Newsome would target offense early and often, especially after losing Steve Smith (retirement) and Kamar Aiken (free agency) from the receiving corps. Instead, the Ravens went defense with each of their first four picks.

"If you would have told me yesterday at 3 o'clock in the afternoon that I was going to pick four defensive players [with my first four picks], I would have told you that you would not be correct," Newsome told reporters afterward. "But that's the way it played itself out."

Newsome is a believer in taking the best player available, regardless of position. However, this may be the year that strategy backfires.

To be blunt, the Baltimore pass-catching corps is a mess. That's at least partly due to the fact Newsome has swung and missed on just about every receiver he's drafted, up to and including Breshad Perriman.

Prior to the draft, Newsome joked about his track record at the position.

"In that I was a wide receiver coming out, I guess you could say yes [it's frustrating]," Newsome told reporters. "But then I got moved. Maybe I don't know about wide receivers."

Unless Perriman shows more this year than he has to this point in his short career, opponents are going to bracket Mike Wallace in coverage. Joe Flacco's best underneath targets are two injured tight ends. The Ravens' best tailback will be suspended four games to open the season. And Baltimore's offensive line lost another big piece when Ricky Wagner left in free agency.

The Ravens offense appears to be the sort of weakness that could keep them out of the playoffs. This isn't the Ray Lewis Ravens. The defense is good, but it's not so dominant that it can carry a deeply flawed club.

The Ravens haven't missed the playoffs three years running since their first four seasons in Charm City. If they whiff again in 2017, the grumbles are likely going to start about both Newsome and head coach John Harbaugh.

Verdict: Bust

Bill Belichick, Monty Hall...Whatever

Just because conventional wisdom suggests all of the personnel moves the New England Patriots made this offseason will work out doesn't mean there isn't risk involved.

There is considerable risk involved in dropping $40 million in guaranteed money on a cornerback (Stephon Gilmore) who ranked 59th at the position last year, per Pro Football Focus. That's especially true since that move tells PFF's fifth-ranked cornerback (Malcolm Butler) he's as good as gone after this season.

There's also risk involved in dealing a second-round pick to the Carolina Panthers for defensive end Kony Ealy, even if it ultimately meant the Patriots slid back fewer than 10 spots. For all the talk of his potential, Ealy has had one big game in three seasons.

Granted, that big game was Super Bowl 50, so there's that.

There's risk involved in the deal the Patriots didn't make, too. By not trading quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, the Patriots made sure that Tom Brady is backstopped in 2017. But 2018 brings free agency for the young signal-caller—and a $20 million question for the Pats.

And yet, no one doubts the Patriots will figure out a way to have their cake and eat it too with Garoppolo. It's just what the Patriots do.

With Gilmore and Butler, a defense that was already among the NFL's best now has perhaps the league's top one-two duo at cornerback. Ealy is just the latest in the merry-go-round of bodies that is New England's pass rush, although if he plays with more consistency, he could quickly climb the depth chart. 

The Pats traded for a game-breaking wideout in Brandin Cooks (at the cost of a first-round pick, a move not without risk of its own) and an athletic tight end in Dwayne Allen. They've added so many running backs this offseason that it's hard to keep count, including poaching another restricted free agent (Mike Gillislee) from their division rivals in Buffalo.

Did the Patriots take chances this offseason? Yes. Quite a few, in fact.

But if just half pay off, the reigning world champions will be substantially better.

That should be abjectly terrifying to the rest of the NFL.

Verdict: Double triple super boom 

In Sean We Trust

It's hardly surprising that for every person who assumes the Patriots' moves will pay off, there's another who assumes any major decision the Buffalo Bills made will end in disaster. One team has won five Super Bowls since the last time the other made the playoffs.

It doesn't help that the Bills are starting over (again) at head coach, having hired Sean McDermott back in January to replace Rex Ryan. It also doesn't help that the Bills then waited until just after the 2017 draft to cut general manager Doug Whaley loose.

As the Charlotte Observer's Joe Person reported, the Bills didn't waste time finding Whaley's successor, tabbing Carolina Panthers assistant general manager Brandon Beane for the job. But that job might be more title than anything, because as New York Upstate pointed out, there's little question who is in charge now in Buffalo.

"Since he walked through the door," they said, "McDermott has been able to put his stamp on every aspect of the organization. From how the walls are decorated at the facility to major personnel and roster decisions, this is McDermott's team. He will now be surrounded by people he's comfortable with, making a collaborative approach even easier. That's a lot of trust to put in a first-time head coach, but it also makes accountability that much easier."

Maybe it will work out. Maybe the clunky timing of Whaley's firing has created a false perception that Beane will answer to McDermott. That isn't the case, according to Person.

"Despite speculation to the contrary, Beane—not McDermott—will have control of the 53-man roster," he wrote. "If Beane wasn't going to get the final say on personnel decisions, he wouldn't have interviewed (and the Panthers wouldn't have let him)."

False or no though, the perception is there. So is a ton of pressure on a first-time head coach and general manager working for an impatient owner to reverse the longest postseason drought in the NFL.

Verdict: Bust