Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Free Agency 2017: Moves That Could Heavily Impact the Draft

Sean Tomlinson

Priorities and needs are always moving targets throughout the NFL offseason. What a team wants in March when the roster-shuffling begins often changes and takes on a different shape by late April.

As lines get drawn through items on offseason shopping lists, there's a trickle-down effect. Early draft focuses usually change after major free-agency signings or often even minor ones. One roster hole is filled when, say, two of the top available wide receivers are signed (see: the Philadelphia Eagles), while others remain empty.

The pre-draft period of the NFL calendar is filled with moving parts. Both the additions and subtractions create a sharper image of how each team will approach the draft, including which positions or prospects could be in demand early and which ones might fall further down the board.

Let's take a closer look at some of the most notable free-agency moves and misses likely to impact the draft.

The Jets Signing Only Josh McCown at Quarterback

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A year ago one of the most compelling offseason story lines was this: What will the New York Jets do with Ryan Fitzpatrick?

The fact that Fitzpatrick was seen as both a core pillar and savior shows how much the NFL operates in warp speed. In 2015 the Jets only narrowly missed the playoffs while he threw 31 touchdown passes, more than doubling his 15 interceptions. Then in 2016 after being re-signed, he quickly went back to being Ryan Fitzpatrick again while averaging 6.7 yards per attempt and finishing third in interceptions (17) even while starting just 11 games.

Fitzpatrick has since been released, meaning the Jets have a swirling black hole at the bedrock position of every offense and an offseason quarterback search is ongoing yet again.

The in-house solutions of Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg don't inspire much confidence. Hackenberg was a laughable reach during the 2016 draft when the Jets selected him with the 51st overall pick. And Petty needed just 133 pass attempts to throw seven interceptions in 2016.

The Jets have spun the veteran bridge quarterback wheel of doom again by signing Josh McCown to a one-year deal. McCown is a perfectly adequate seat-warmer and nothing more. He'll turn 38 years old before the start of the 2017 season, and in five appearances (three starts) for the Cleveland Browns in 2016, McCown threw six interceptions while connecting on only 54.5 percent of his throws.

The Jets detonated their roster and are in full rebuild mode. They have many, many holes, but quarterback is still the most significant area of need. Signing McCown certainly doesn't take them out of the conversation to take a quarterback like Deshaun Watson, Mitchell Trubisky or DeShone Kizer at No. 6 overall.

The Eagles Signing Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith

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There was a time in the not-so distant past when the Philadelphia Eagles would have been the presumed landing spot for one of the draft's top wide receivers.

In fact, had the Eagles not addressed the position in free agency, then John Ross, Corey Davis and Mike Williams could have all started to poke around the Philadelphia housing market. The Eagles surely would have taken one of them at 14th overall.

But as appealing as those prospects are, the Eagles have already tried the youthful route at wide receiver, and it's come with mixed results at best.

They selected Jordan Matthews with their 42nd overall pick in 2014. After two promising seasons to begin his career, Matthews posted single-year lows in receiving yards (804), touchdowns (three) and yards per catch (11.0) in 2016.

Then there's Nelson Agholor, who required an even higher draft investment in 2015. The Eagles called his name with their 20th overall pick. In return he's given them a mere 59 receptions and 648 receiving yards over two seasons. Worse, in 2016 Agholor and Matthews combined to drop 14 catchable passes, according to Pro Football Focus.

The Eagles have a young quarterback in Carson Wentz who has shown flashes of potential, but his confidence could be shattered by repeated mistakes from young receivers. So they needed a different approach to a long-standing problem and turned away from the draft by using free agency to bring in Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith, two much more established receivers.

The Eagles know what they're getting with Jeffery and Smith or at least have a much better idea with them, compared to the land mines always lurking in the draft.

The Texans Trading Brock Osweiler

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The Houston Texans did something brave that's also sadly rare: They admitted to a colossal mistake. That costly error in judgment was signing quarterback Brock Osweiler in 2016, and the Texans moved on before he had a chance to keep crippling an otherwise solid roster.

Osweiler was traded to the Cleveland Browns in a creative, NBA-style deal. It essentially amounted to one team taking on the overbearing salary of a failed player in exchange for a draft pick. Both sides can say they won or at least feel like it. A rebuilding Browns team has yet another high draft pick (a second-rounder in 2018 in addition to a sixth-rounder in 2017). The Texans, meanwhile, were cap-crunched and now can pursue their real solution at quarterback.

The name of that solution has presumably been Tony Romo for quite some time now. But all is relatively quiet on the Romo front still. The Texans freed up the cap room and have the geographical advantage in their pursuit of a quarterback who is winding down his career with a young family and lives in Dallas. That's surely a factor in why the NFL Network's Jeff Darlington reported Romo believes he's down to two options: the Texans or retirement.

But even if Romo chooses that door and heads to Houston, he'll still be a two-year starter in the most optimistic scenario. And an incredibly battered short-term starter at that. Romo has broken his collarbone three times and suffered multiple back injuries.

The Texans will still need to develop a long-term option at quarterback, and getting a potential franchise cornerstone arm could happen in the first round. They would likely need to trade up for Trubisky or Watson. But Kizer or Patrick Mahomes could be available at No. 25. 

The Titans Not Getting Their Playmaker Receiver Yet

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Someone was going to lose when the money started flying and a group of wide receiver-desperate teams were scrambling to secure Jeffery, DeSean Jackson and Kenny Stills, among others.

It's just a little strange that the Tennessee Titans put one in the loss column.

They have a fast-developing young quarterback in Marcus Mariota. That's appealing to free-agent wide receivers as is the support of the league's third-ranked rushing offense in 2016.

But do you know what really gets a top free agent's attention? Money—and lots of it. The Titans entered free agency with more salary cap room than the GDP of some island nations, and their available funds in late March still sit at $39.6 million, according to Spotrac.

Yet as it stands right now, the Titans still have Rishard Matthews and Tajae Sharpe leading their wide receiver depth chart after whiffing during free agency.

Sure, Matthews and Sharpe are both young receivers with growth potential. But Sharpe logged only seven receptions over the final five games of 2016. And although Matthews is rising fast after his 945 receiving yards during the first season of a three-year contract, he needs more support than what Sharpe can provide.

The Titans can look smart coming out of the offseason, as building through the draft is always the preferred option over free agency. They can grab one of the top pass-catchers available either in the first round or early on in Day 2, then watch as the fireworks are set off by Mariota. 

The Cowboys Losing 3 Starting Defensive Backs

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The Dallas Cowboys entered the offseason knowing a handful of core defenders were likely about to follow the strong scent of money and scurry off.

There was little the Cowboys could do to prevent that inevitable mass exodus. They were always up against a salary-cap wall, with little room to pursue any of the marquee free agents as cornerbacks Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr and safeties Barry Church and J.J. Wilcox departed.

The Dallas secondary was already weak and finished 2016 ranked 26th while giving up 260.4 passing yards per game. But it's difficult to replace even weak pieces when they all leave at the same time, especially when each player still made a notable contribution during a division-title season.

Claiborne was an injury-prone though still young cornerback who was finally starting to show a hint of growth, with five passes defensed and an interception over only seven games in 2016. Carr was largely a free-agent disappointment for the Cowboys, though he still provided a solid large-bodied presence on the outside at 6'0" and 207 pounds. Wilcox had 49 tackles in a part-time role, and Church posted a passer rating in coverage of only 67.8 in 2016, per PFF.

The Cowboys signed cornerback Nolan Carroll during the second wave of free agency. But there's much more work to be done this offseason as they try to rebuild the foundation of their defensive backfield. A cornerback is very much in play for Dallas during the first round of the draft at No. 28, with their crosshairs possibly on USC's Adoree' Jackson or Alabama's Marlon Humphrey.

The Bengals Losing Both Kevin Zeitler and Andrew Whitworth

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Continuity is often the root of quality offensive line play. Oh sure, simple talent has to come first. But if a talent baseline is met among all five men, the unit will grow together while developing a sense of cohesion.

Which is why losing one of the league's top left tackles and blindside protectors can be a vicious gut shot. Toss in the loss of a top guard in the same offseason, and the offense in question can be sent staggering.

That could be the near future for the Cincinnati Bengals after both tackle Andrew Whitworth and guard Kevin Zeitler left.

Whitworth may be aging, but that's mattered so very little. At 35 years old he's still a top-tier tackle and has allowed only nine sacks over the past two seasons while playing 2,188 snaps, per PFF. He headed westward to the Los Angeles Rams, and Zeitler became another piece added to the Browns' imposing muscle up front. Zeitler allowed only one sack in 2016, again per PFF, and graded out as the league's seventh-best run-blocking guard.

Adding more pain to an offseason that's already been filled with stinging blows is the draft board at both tackle and guard. This isn't an especially strong upcoming offensive line class in general, but it's a need the Bengals will have to address somehow over the first two days.

They hold the ninth overall pick, and that might be a little too high for Alabama tackle Cam Robinson or Garett Bolles from Utah. So a trade back is a possibility.

The Bears Signing Mike Glennon

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The Chicago Bears made the first and loudest statement about the 2017 quarterback draft class. They said this pretty much: "Nah, we're good."

Those were the unspoken but implied words when the Bears gave Mike Glennon a three-year contract with $18.5 million in guaranteed money.

The Bears hold the third overall pick, and every quarterback will still likely be available when they're on the clock. But although Glennon doesn't have any guaranteed money in 2018 or 2019, he's still getting paid starter money in 2017. It would be highly unorthodox and downright bizarre to give a quarterback who's serviceable at best (his career yards per attempt is 6.5) that much guaranteed cash in free agency, then use a top-three pick on a more promising prospect who will get paid much less on his rookie contract.

The Bears are still likely going to select a quarterback to develop early and will probably target the second round. Mahomes is a possibility if he falls out of the first round, though Pitt's Nate Peterman and California's Davis Webb are the more realistic Day 2 options.

There will be a domino effect for the top quarterbacks with the Bears removed as one potential draft landing spot. They'll all start a gentle tumble toward the No. 6 pick, then a free fall could begin if the Jets go in another direction.

The Colts Loading Up on Pass-Rushers

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The Indianapolis Colts took an economical approach to an annual pass-rushing problem by signing outside linebackers John Simon and Jabaal Sheard in free agency, bringing in defensive end Margus Hunt and taking a flier on linebacker Barkevious Mingo.

They were all signed to affordable contracts. Simon could be among the steals of free agency if he can keep producing well outside without the help of former Texans teammates J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney. He'll now play under a three-year contract that guarantees him only $5.5 million, which comes after his 8.5 sacks and 50-plus tackles over the past two seasons in a part-time role.

Then there's Sheard, who has collected 13 sacks over the same two-year period, and is also a quality edge-setter against the run. The presence of those two alone should both improve a Colts pass rush that ranked tied for 19th in 2016 (33 sacks) and also direct their draft attention elsewhere at No. 15.

Providing better protection for quarterback Andrew Luck will likely be the Colts' primary focus, which should help to push some of the projected mid-first-round pass-rushing prospects a little further down (think Michigan's Taco Charlton and possibly Tennessee's Derek Barnett).

The Bills' Wide Receiver Depth Chart Took a Major Hit

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Buffalo Bills wide receiver Sammy Watkins has a dangerously high talent ceiling, and the 24-year-old would reach it if he could ever stay healthy for any length of time.

He's missed 11 games over three seasons, primarily because of foot issues that have led to two surgeries. But during his first 29 career games in 2014 and 2015, he went off for 2,029 yards and 15 touchdowns. That's why a lot of wishing and hoping still follows Watkins, as it's easy to dream on his deep explosiveness if he were to ever stay healthy.

But even if we entertain that perfect rosy future where he plays an injury-free 16 games, Watkins still needs support around him. And suddenly the Bills' depth chart doesn't offer much.

The Bills lost two key contributors when Robert Woods signed with the Rams and Marquise Goodwin joined the San Francisco 49ers. The replacements brought in through free agency so far are all second-tier talents at best. The Bills signed Corey Brown, Jeremy Butler and Andre Holmes, and they combined for 43 receptions in 2016.

The Bills desperately need to give both Watkins and quarterback Tyrod Taylor more help. With the 10th overall pick, they'll be right in the thick of a strong receiver draft class, with Clemson's Mike Williams possibly still available.

   

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