Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press

NBA Awards Race: What If MVP Really Stood for Most Valuable Player?

Adam Fromal

Winning MVP is no easy task in the NBA, especially given the ever-changing criteria used for selection.

Will Russell Westbrook get the crown if he finishes with a season-long triple-double, allowing him to match Oscar Robertson as one of two players in league history to accomplish such a feat? Could LeBron James sneak into the lead by virtue of boasting such monumental impact on his troops' success? Will James Harden hold up a trophy for giving his team an identity and then pushing it toward the top of the Western Conference?

No one knows yet, and that's largely because voters often weigh factors differently.

Some ignore narratives in favor of numbers. Others use a combination of the two. Some exclude any players from teams that aren't at the top of their conference. Others won't consider players on squads with other potential candidates. 

Here, narratives, historical uniqueness and team success are irrelevant. Only a player's impact on his team matters, allowing MVP to literally stand for most valuable player.

We started by determining each NBA team's best player, as signified by NBA Math's total points added (TPA) as of March 17 (when data collection began). We then looked at all 30 players' on/off differentials per possession and multiplied that by the number of possessions they've played. The top 10 MVP candidates were ranked from those results. You can find each player's score next to his name. 

Notable Exclusions

Ronald Cortes/Getty Images

James Harden, Houston Rockets

Though there's no doubt James Harden has fundamentally changed how the Houston Rockets approach the game's offensive end. But the numbers don't all work in his favor. Despite the gaudy statistics he's produced, his overwhelming involvement whenever he's on the floor and the team's overall success, Houston still manages to function when he's riding the pine. 

The Rockets have a sterling 7.1 net rating with Harden on the court, but that number only falls to 4.8 without him. And though that's more a reflection on the strength of the unit led by Eric Gordon and Lou Williams, it still works against him in this particular competition. 

Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs

Even though Kawhi Leonard should factor into the Defensive Player of the Year conversation yet again, his inability to positively impact the San Antonio Spurs' point-preventing metrics has been a source of consternation throughout the year. Whether it's simply due to bad luck, schematic issues, teams willingly playing four-on-four while leaving him in the corner or some other undiscovered explanation, the Spurs have been better defensively with him off the court—8.3 points per 100 possessions better, in fact. 

Leonard does take his troops to unimaginable levels on the scoring end, but that can only just mitigate the decline in stinginess. The overall product shows the Spurs have found nearly as much success without their clear-cut superstar as they have with him, and a net rating improvement of 0.5 won't get the job done here. 

Isaiah Thomas, Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics point guard isn't really in the MVP conversation. Even The Ringer's Bill Simmons won't include him in the race, despite his fourth-quarter excellence and the explosive nature of the scoring prowess contained within his diminutive frame. 

But Isaiah Thomas has still blossomed into such a notable player that it might seem weird to have him outside the top 10. Blame his defense if you must, because the 4.1-point jump in net rating when he's on the floor only lifts him to No. 19 in this countdown. 

10. Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors (390.2)

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Net Rating on Court: 15.2

Net Rating off Court: 6.1

Possessions: 4288

Impressive as the Golden State Warriors' bench has been, the starters have been so much better while playing alongside Kevin Durant. And that's how it should be, considering the front office elected to blow up the team's depth (and replaced it nicely) to acquire the former MVP after reaching the NBA Finals in two consecutive campaigns. 

Heading into the season, it wasn't easy to guess from where the give and take would come. Maybe Klay Thompson would sacrifice spot-up touches, though the talented 2-guard made it clear that probably wouldn't be happening. Perhaps the ball wouldn't be in Draymond Green's hands so frequently. If those options didn't work, Stephen Curry would have to assume more off-ball responsibilities, or Durant would need to fill a new role as a glorified version of Harrison Barnes. 

Adjustments have been omnipresent throughout 2016-17. but they typically haven't asked the new arrival to change his game. He's been free to score efficiently, distribute for his teammates and play the best defense of his career, thriving in every facet of the game as he's allowed to expend the same energy he's always had without spreading it so thin. 

Only minutes hold Durant back here, as a Grade 2 MCL sprain and tibial bone bruise in his left knee shortened his regular season. 

His placement also serves as a perfect example of why we're only looking at each team's best player—as defined by NBA Math's total points added at the time of these rankings. Though each team should only have one candidate for a literal MVP award, Green and Thompson would've both slotted between Nos. 8 and 7, while Curry would sit behind only the top two. But because that trio could not best Durant in TPA, none of the three made the cut here. 

9. Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors (391.55)

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

Net Rating on Court: 8.1

Net Rating off Court: minus-1.1

Possessions: 4256

When Kyle Lowry went down with a wrist injury that required surgery to remove loose bodies, one question escaped everyone's lips: Can the Toronto Raptors survive without him? 

They have, thanks to improved defensive effort. But that's not indicative of what he brings to the team, since Cory Joseph and Delon Wright can focus their efforts on the preventing end while DeMar DeRozan handles the ball more frequently. Plus, Lowry's injury nearly coincided with the team onboarding Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker, both of whom have improved Toronto's stopping ability as they grow more comfortable in their new home. 

However, surviving is different than thriving. 

Without Lowry, the offense can't function at the same level. His aggressive mentality, facilitating excellence and ability to knock down pull-up jumpers keeps defenders operating with constant pits in their stomachs; no matter how well-positioned they may be, they know the opposing point guard is capable of scoring anyway. 

Lowry's name still doesn't always get bandied about in the elite point guard conversation though.

But rest assured that when healthy, he is one.

8. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets (465.8)

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

Net Rating on Court: 6.2

Net Rating off Court: minus-6.9

Possessions: 3556

Nikola Jokic's presence has fundamentally changed how the Denver Nuggets approach offense. 

"It's easy (to cut when playing with a passing big)," Wilson Chandler explained to Bleacher Report in December. "Sometimes you get offenses where you feel like you're cutting for no reason, but he [Jokic] definitely gives you a feeling, makes you want to cut so you might get the ball and score."

His passing has remained contagious all year. As he's racked up a literal handful of triple-doubles and become one of the NBA's most consistent sources of offense, he's inspired his teammates to engage in constant motion and unselfish movement off the rock. They know it's worthwhile to sprint toward the hoop, since Jokic is uniquely able to arc in an on-target feed or rocket the ball through a tight space to create an easy bucket. 

The sophomore center isn't an adequate rim-protector, though his defensive flaws are only aggravated by Denver's team-wide inability to prevent dribble penetration. He makes up for the lack of athleticism with a solid understanding of positioning, but it's still his offense that boosts his candidacy in this race. 

The Nuggets simply wouldn't be in the playoff hunt without him. Since he re-entered the starting lineup on Dec. 15, his troops have scored a staggering 119.7 points per 100 possessions while he's on the floor. For the sake of comparison, the Golden State Warriors lead the league with a 112.9 offensive rating this season. 

Jokic may only be starting to get some national love on a regular basis. But he's not going anywhere for a long time, and he's already become one of the Association's most impactful contributors. 

7. Kemba Walker, Charlotte Hornets (510.4)

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Net Rating on Court: 3.8

Net Rating off Court: minus-6.8

Possessions: 4815

Aaron Harrison. Brian Roberts. Ramon Sessions. Briante Webber. 

The Charlotte Hornets have tried out plenty of backup point guards, but none have been able to stem the substantial drop-off that occurs when Kemba Walker needs to rest. No one can control the offense like him, even if it's less difficult to pick up the minimal defensive slack. 

When Walker is active, everything runs through him.

The Hornets love beginning sets with him handling at the top of the key, awaiting high screens set by one of the team's big men. When Cody Zeller initiates the action and then rolls to the hoop, Walker can either use the created space to finish the play himself or feed his center with a slip pass leading to an easy lay-in or dunk. And when multiple players engage defenders with high screens, the sets are even more difficult to stop. 

This strategy simply doesn't work without Walker. Frankly, it wouldn't look so seamless if last year's version of the Connecticut product were running the show, since he's grown so much more comfortable pulling up for a triple whenever a defender mistakenly ducks under the screen. 

Thanks to head coach Steve Clifford, the Hornets defense will always be solid. But the offense doesn't stand a chance without its on-court leader. 

6. Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls (539.1)

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Net Rating on Court: 1.7

Net Rating off Court: minus-9.6

Possessions: 4771

It's not just on one end that Jimmy Butler helps the Chicago Bulls reach new heights. As you can see below with his on/off splits, he's been the catalyst behind massive surges on both sides: 

Situation Offensive Rating (Rank) Defensive Rating (Rank) Net Rating (Rank)
With Butler 105.8 (No. 14) 104.1 (No. 5) 1.7 (No. 10)
Without Butler 99.4 (No. 30) 109 (No. 28) minus-9.6 (No. 30)

Context makes Butler's work all the more impressive. 

He plays with a porous backcourt that often has trouble preventing dribble penetration, which forces him to clean up teammates' mistakes on the wings and engage in never-ending switches. He also operates without floor-spacers around him, allowing defenders to collapse in his direction and take advantage of the dearth of gravity. 

Nevertheless, he makes it work. 

Butler means everything to the Bulls, and that only becomes increasingly true during the waning moments of close contests. In clutch situations, defined by NBA.com as the last five minutes of games separated by no more than five points, he's averaging 39.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 4.9 assists per 36 minutes while shooting 43.4 percent from the field and 94.8 percent at the charity stripe. 

5. Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz (564)

Bob Levey/Getty Images

Net Rating on Court: 8.8

Net Rating off Court: minus-3.7

Possessions: 4512

Defense wins championships can make players quite valuable. 

Though Rudy Gobert certainly has an offensive impact with his improved finishing ability and the ceaseless threat that is his rim-running preference, his primary asset remains his defense. No one in the NBA impacts the game quite like him, as he actively deters players from entering his domain and swats away everyone who dares test him. 

According to NBA.com's SportVU data, 57 different men have faced at least five shots per game at the hoop—none of whom have challenged as many as Gobert's 10.3 per contest. And even with that immense workload, the French center still comes close to becoming the league's stingiest interior presence: 

Player Shots Faced at Rim Per Game FG% Allowed
Joel Embiid 7.7 41.0
LaMarcus Aldridge 5.5 42.3
Rudy Gobert 10.3 43.2
Kristaps Porzingis 7.8 43.5
Draymond Green 6.9 43.7
Brook Lopez 6.5 46.0

The average contested shot at the rim this season has yielded 1.06 points, while Gobert has given up a mere 0.86. Accounting for his volume, that means he's allowed his opponents to produce 141.49 points below expectations; no one else's score in this metric comes closer than Kristaps Porzingis' 87.98 or Draymond Green's 85.85.

4. Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers (578.9)

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

Net Rating on Court: 13.1

Net Rating off Court: minus-5.3

Possessions: 3146

As John Schuhmann dug up for NBA.com, Chris Paul is on track to lead all qualified players in on/off differential for the second time in the last three seasons:

"In 2014-15, Paul's differential of 19.8 points per 100 possessions was also the league's biggest (minimum 1,000 minutes played) by a wide margin, but was a lot more about offense (+19.6) than defense (-0.2)," he wrote. "Last season, Paul's differential of 16.6 points per 100 possessions ranked third behind Stephen Curry (26.0) and Draymond Green (22.1) and was also more about offense (+13.7) than defense (-2.9)."

Only playing time holds Paul back, thanks to early-season hamstring trouble and then a torn ligament in his left thumb that knocked him out of 14 consecutive contests.

Since he re-entered the lineup in a Feb. 24 loss to the San Antonio Spurs, the Clippers have been outscored by a staggering 10 points per 100 possessions without him. And when he plays, that net rating skyrockets to 5.2, giving him a differential only marginally below his season-long mark. 

Paul's unique ability to create mid-range shots while controlling an offense comprises only part of his value. The rest comes on the preventing end, where he constantly pesters his assignments and serves as a vocal leader who can both force turnovers on the perimeter and direct traffic toward the immovable cone that is DeAndre Jordan. 

It's that two-way acumen that makes Paul not just the leader in ESPN.com's real plus/minus (8.31), but also the leader by so much that the gap between him and No. 2 LeBron James (7.25) is as large as the difference between James and No. 7 Rudy Gobert (6.08).

3. John Wall, Washington Wizards (716.2)

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Net Rating on Court: 5.7

Net Rating off Court: minus-8.1

Possessions: 5190

John Wall finds himself in an interesting situation. 

He gets to take the Washington Wizards' featured spot in these rankings by virtue of leading the team in NBA Math's TPA at the time of data collection, though Otto Porter Jr. has since moved past him. He also doesn't have the team's highest score in this metric, as Bradley Beal fares slightly better. But he's still No. 3 among our featured players, and context indicates that he truly is the team's most valuable player. 

It's Wall's set-up passes that make life easy for the floor-spacing excellence provided by Porter and Beal. And that starts to show itself statistically (in part, at least) when we look at what each member of the D.C. Big Three has done without the triumvirate's other two contributors, per nbawowy.com: 

Situation Minutes Offensive Rating Defensive Rating Net Rating
Wall without Porter and Beal 144 118.5 112.3 6.2
Porter without Wall and Beal 175 106.9 113.6 minus-6.7
Beal without Wall and Porter 158 110.6 103.7 6.9

Porter should immediately be eliminated from consideration, though Beal is still comparable to Wall—until we look at passing distributions. Whereas Beal's passes to Wall lead to just 1.1 of the point guard's 8.2 made field goals per game, the reverse situation yields 4.5 of the 2-guard's 8.3 makes per contest. 

Of course, the eye test is even simpler. Watch even 10 minutes of a Wizards game, and you'll quickly realize just how important the Kentucky product has become. 

2. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder (752.1)

Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press

Net Rating on Court: 3.9

Net Rating off Court: minus-10.8

Possessions: 5116

It shouldn't be any surprise that the Oklahoma City Thunder fall apart without Russell Westbrook. 

Following a trade deadline in which they acquired two potential rotation members (Doug McDermott and Taj Gibson), the best realistic lineup they can put together without the MVP candidate still consists of Semaj Christon, Victor Oladipo, Andre Roberson, Taj Gibson and Steven Adams—assuming players stick at their traditional positions. 

That quintet might be stellar defensively, but it has no hope of scoring with any competitive teams. And therein lies the problem for an OKC squad that has inordinate amounts of trouble generating offense without Westbrook. 

Not only does he lead the league in usage rate and assist percentage by substantial margins, but he's on pace to produce the top score in the former category while trailing only two John Stockton seasons in the latter among all qualified campaigns in NBA history. When he's on the floor, he's using possessions like no one ever has and dishing out assists on a nearly unprecedented 56.6 percent of his teammates' made field goals.  

And the Thunder are still only posting a 3.9 net rating when he's on the floor. That, in and of itself, should tell you how putrid the rest of this roster is compared to other playoff contenders, which shows even more prominently during the disastrous minutes in which Westbrook is recharging his indefatigable motor. 

1. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers (826)

Jae C. Hong/Associated Press

Net Rating on Court: 8.5

Net Rating off Court: minus-8.5

Possessions: 4859

When LeBron James is on the floor, the Cleveland Cavaliers play like one of the Association's best teams, trailing only the San Antonio Spurs (8.6) and Golden State Warriors (11.6) in net rating. Without him, they're outscored by a whopping 8.5 points per 100 possessions, leaving them on the wrong side of the league-worst Los Angeles Lakers (7.6). 

It's a massive discrepancy, and yet it may still understate the impact James has on this team. 

Remember how Michael Jordan might have won MVP each and every season of his prime were it not for voter fatigue? Well, we're looking at a similar situation for this four-time holder of the Maurice Podoloff Trophy, since no one can take a team and carry it from putridity to legitimate contention with such ease. 

James has altered his game this year, and it hasn't even come at the expense of his own offense.

He's averaging more points than he did each of the past two seasons, but he's simultaneously setting career highs in both rebounds and assists per game, doing everything for Cleveland while racking up triple-doubles. His vision is the fundamental building block for this team, and the front office's ability to put the right pieces around him has allowed him to make a monumental difference while finally playing the style of basketball he was born to play. 

The crazy consistency of his superiority may prevent him from having the narrative that's typically needed to win MVP. But if the abbreviation meant what it literally stood for, he'd be the prohibitive favorite. 

Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.

Unless otherwise indicated, all quotes obtained firsthand, and all stats from Basketball ReferenceNBA.com or NBA Math and accurate heading into games Monday, March 20.

   

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