Damian Dovarganes/Associated Press

Manny Pacquiao vs. Jessie Vargas: Preview and Prediction for Title Fight

Briggs Seekins

One of the greatest pound-for-pound boxing stars of this century returns to action on Saturday night in Las Vegas, when Filipino superstar Manny Pacquiao faces Jessie Vargas at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas. 

Vargas' WBO welterweight belt will be on the line, although at this point, that particular title should rank as No. 4 behind the WBC, WBA and IBF belts in terms of prestige. 

Pacquiao, on the other hand, still is one of the division's top stars. 

Tale of the Tape

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Per Boxrec Manny Pacquiao Jessie Vargas
Record: 58-6-2, 38 KOs 27-1, 10 KOs
Height: 5'5.5" 5'10"
Reach: 67" 71"
Weight: About 145 lbs About 147 lbs
Age: 37 27
Stance: Southpaw Orthodox
Hometown: General Santos City, Philippines Las Vegas, Nevada
Rounds 431 189

This tale of the tape is a study in contrasts. Pacquiao has 39 more fights and nearly 250 more professional rounds. He is a decade older. 

Vargas has substantial advantages in height and reach, but Pacquiao has defeated better fighters with similar dimensions. 

Las Vegas might be where Vargas makes his home. But expect a pro-Pacquiao crowd on Saturday night. 

Main Storylines

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The biggest storyline surrounding this fight is the fact that HBO has opted not to broadcast it. Manny Pacquiao is one of the two biggest boxing superstars of this century, and HBO has been along for the ride for most of his biggest moments. But HBO taking a pass speaks to how little interest there is in this fight. 

Let's be fair here, though. Vargas is a good fighter. His knockout of Sadam Ali in March to claim the vacant WBO belt was an outstanding performance against a solid opponent. 

Vargas is equal to, if not slightly better than, Chris Algieri (whom Pacquiao faced in 2014) and Brandon Rios (2013). But the difference in those fights was that HBO and the boxing public were still hanging on, waiting to see if Pacquiao would finally make a fight with Floyd Mayweather

But the Pacquiao-Mayweather fight is now in the past. It was an unexciting, one-sided bout, and nobody but the most dedicated Pacquiao fan boys is interested in seeing a rematch. 

Based on how he performed against Timothy Bradley in April, Pacquiao remains one of the best active fighters in the world. But his legacy is more or less complete now. He's a Hall of Famer, an all-time great. 

The only really compelling bouts for him now are against rising superstars. That is not Vargas.

Bradley thoroughly outboxed Vargas in June 2015. It was not a case of Bradley just being a tough style matchup for Vargas. Bradley was on a different level.

And Pacquiao established in April that he is on a different level than Bradley. That makes it impossible to care about seeing Pacquiao face Vargas.  

Strengths

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Pacquiao is one of the most exciting offensive fighters of all time. He throws explosive, multi-punch combinations, and his quick, darting footwork allows him to exploit angles and batter opponents before they can set their feet. 

Pacquiao has faced most of the best pound-for-pound fighters of his generation. He is a true, all-around boxer and one of the best to ever lace up the gloves. 

Vargas has good length and the jab and footwork to exploit that advantage. Vargas has a nice lead hook that he often disguises as a jab. 

Vargas has shown a cracking right in his past two fights. He stopped Ali and had Bradley in trouble late in their fight. 

Weaknesses

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Pacquiao is 37 and has been a professional fighter for over 20 years. His style depends on athleticism, and that kind of style usually does not age well. 

As he has grown older and fought larger fighters, Pacquiao's knockout percentage has stalled. He has not stopped an opponent in seven years. And as Vargas showed late in the fight against Bradley, if you let him hang around, he is good enough to land a big punch. 

Like most aggressive southpaws, Pacquiao is vulnerable to the straight right from an orthodox fighter. 

Vargas is a good fighter, but his track record against opponents such as Bradley, or even Josesito Lopez, suggests that he is a notch or two below Pacquiao in talent.

While he has seemed to do a better job of generating power over the past two years, he has only 10 career stoppages. Without the power to equalize things, he will struggle against a speedster such as Pacquiao. 

Manny Pacquiao Will Win If...

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If Pacquiao fights his typical fight, he will win with ease against Vargas on Saturday night. He should look to slip Vargas' jab and come over the top with a lead left hand, then follow with a doubled-up right hook to the body and head. 

But that combination should be just a small part of the dizzying offense that Pacquiao unleashes against Vargas. The Filipino legend needs to use feints and stutter steps on the outside, then explode into range, throwing punches from every direction. 

Pacquiao is a master of using angles, and that should make it next to impossible for Vargas to get set. This should not be a close fight, but Pacquiao needs to watch out for a straight right from Vargas. Vargas is hardly a knockout artist, but he's got enough pop to hurt Pacquiao if the legendary fighter gets careless. 

Jessie Vargas Will Win If...

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

To win this fight, Vargas will need to fight better than he ever has before. He will need to be tough and patient, and wait for his spots to open up. 

He also must get down Pacquiao's timing and figure out how to disrupt the Filipino star's rhythm. He'll have to use his own punches to disrupt Pacquiao's combinations. If Vargas uses an aggressive, busy jab, he will give himself a chance at keeping his shorter opponent out of range to hit him.  

Vargas will need to be aware of the positioning of his lead left foot. He must to keep it to the outside of Pacquaio's lead right foot so that he can get the angle to catch the southpaw with his right hand. 

Prediction

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Pacquiao will win this fight by unanimous decision, taking nearly every round against Vargas on all three judges' cards. He will look like the same quick and clever fighter who defeated Bradley. 

Pacquiao has already announced one retirement this year, following that win over Bradley. Heading into this bout with Vargas, he is not talking about retiring. So expect him to return to action again by next April. 

Last week, Top Rank CEO Bob Arum was on ESPN's First Take, discussing a potential fight for next year between Pacquiao and Terence Crawford. That's a fight that could get fans excited—Crawford is an emerging pound-for-pound star in his own right. 

But don't expect it to happen just because Arum is talking about it. Last July, Arum was saying the fight was going to happen this year. 

Pacquiao's trainer, Freddie Roach, was more resistant to the idea of fighting the dangerous Crawford. Earlier this month, he told the Philippine Star that he wanted to see how Pacquiao would handle balancing his fighting career with his new position in the Filipino senate. 

Pacquiao turns 38 in December. Expect him fight again next year but not against Crawford.

Another aging star as Pacquiao's foe is more likely. 

   

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