Mark Wallheiser/Associated Press

2015 NFL Draft: Matt Miller's Scouting Notebook for Week 8

Matt Miller

Every game matters in college football, but as the season turns to premier matchups between top-tier teams, every evaluator gets excited about the star power on both sides of the field.

This past weekend delivered as Notre Dame and Florida State went down to the wire—allowing Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston to show off his clutch ability with the game on the line. And while one player excels, others struggled.

How did the past week in college and NFL football affect player rankings and the upcoming draft class? 

The Scout's Report

— Let's get the weekly Jameis Winston talk out of the way. After a thrilling fourth quarter against Notre Dame, this text came in from one NFL college scouting director: "Too bad about the off-field, because Winston is the best player in the country." More on Winston, and some closure on him, in Five Up, Five Down. 

— Speaking of Florida State, as one area NFL scout assigned to the team said, "Everyone there is 'me' first. They're all worried about being first-round picks instead of winning college games." And while that may not matter in the predraft process, it's the kind of atmosphere the coaches and players are dealing with in Tallahassee. 

— Iowa defensive tackle Carl Davis looks the part of a stud NFL prospect, but his film has been so-so this year. Said one area scout, "...Most frustrating guy I've had to write yet. Incredibly inconsistent in all phases of the game. His flashes are very intriguing, but I question his toughness and wiring."

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

— Here is a 2016 prospect to keep an eye on: Notre Dame wide receiver Corey Robinson. He's the son of former NBA great David Robinson and inherited his dad's wingspan and athleticism.

— Sports Illustrated writers Pete Thamel and Thayer Evans shared in their fantastic Inside Read article that Boise State running back Jay Ajayi and Arizona State wide receiver Jaelen Strong are expected to enter the 2015 NFL draft. I currently have both in the second round.

 — One name that keeps popping up on my talks with NFL teams is Alex Carter of Stanford. The big cornerback has blossomed under new secondary coach Duane Akina. As one NFL scout told me this week, Carter has the talent and athleticism to shoot up draft boards.

Five Up, Five Down

Each week, "Five Up, Five Down" will monitor the movements of players on my draft board.

5. QB Jameis Winston, Florida State

Let's put some closure on the whole Jameis Winston "thing," shall we?

As a talent evaluator you're asked to look at a lot of different things and make a lot of snap judgements about a player's talent, integrity and what he'll be like two, three or five years from now as a person and an athlete. What we can't do is play judge and jury without complete information. And with Winston, too many are doing that.

What I can do is evaluate Winston as a player—and there are few players in college football able to compare to his talent. On the field, Winston rates as my No. 3 overall player (behind only Marcus Mariota and Leonard Williams), and that's all I can accurately grade right now. Anything else is taking a side on the stories that have been published about him, and that's not fair to anyone. Now, that's not saying I believe he's innocent or guilty, it means I'm staying away from weighing in those issues until more is known.

If more concrete information comes out regarding Winston's off-field issues, his grade will be adjusted accordingly. But immature things like selling autographs, jumping on tables and cursing or shooting squirrels with a BB gun aren't going to hurt his NFL draft stock. The only thing that can is if NFL teams believe he is guilty of rape allegations that surfaced last year. On the field, it's unlikely teams will see much to criticize. 

4. WR Kevin White, West Virginia

Kevin White may stay on this list the whole damn year. The West Virginia wideout continues to impress with his route-running, hands and ability after the catch. A Day 2 prospect when the season started, White is now in my top 25 players overall. And that includes underclassmen.

White has things he can work on, to be sure, but his upside and immediate talent are worth that Round 1 grade. He's played one-and-a-half seasons at West Virginia and is showing great development on a weekly basis. An NFL coaching staff will be able to take him the rest of the way to his immense potential.

Hannah Foslien/Associated Press

 

3. RB David Cobb, Minnesota 

There will always be a special place in my heart for a running back who can break tackles and pick up yards after contact while running angry. And Minnesota's David Cobb does that so well.

At 5'11" and 220 pounds, Cobb has the size to put his pads down and run over defenders, but what I like best is that he is very good at getting yards after and with contact. He'll carry defenders for yards and isn't shy about running over a tackler instead of trying to reverse field and go around them.

The 2015 draft could be very deep at running back depending on which juniors enter, but Cobb has top-100 potential.

2. ILB Benardrick McKinney, Mississippi State

The 2015 draft class looks to be solid, but one area that was lacking early in the season was a standout inside linebacker prospect. Mississippi State junior Benardrick McKinney has solved that problem.

McKinney may be viewed by some NFL teams as an outside linebacker prospect, but you have to love his versatility and all-around skill set when projecting his spot. McKinney is athletic, active and constantly making plays on the ball in the backfield or in space. If any inside linebacker is to go in the first round, he's the early favorite.

 

1. CB Jalen Collins, LSU

NFL scouts dream about finding a 6'2" cornerback with long arms, quick feet and the hands to make plays on the football. And that's why Jalen Collins is a hot name in NFL circles right now.

The junior corner did struggle against Florida with a hamstring injury and a touchdown allowed (post-injury), but he has shown the versatility to play all over the field in coverage. He's strong enough at the line of scrimmage to frustrate wide receivers and has the instincts in space to be a threat on the ball.

1. DT Carl Davis, Iowa

As noted above, Davis has the physical gifts to be special, but he's not yet put those tools together on the field to make an impact. A former first-round prospect, Davis is now moved down near the bottom of my top 100.

Davis will have a chance to rise back up the board, but concerns about toughness and work ethic shouldn't go away no matter how athletic he shows himself to be at the Senior Bowl or Scouting Combine.

  

2. DT Luther Maddy, Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech announced that senior defensive tackle Luther Maddy would miss the rest of the season, per an ESPN report. Maddy underwent his second surgery on a torn meniscus after originally having it operated on back in September.

Maddy, a talented pass-rushing defensive tackle, can apply for a hardship and stay at Virginia Tech for another season. He was looked at as a potential top-100 player before the first knee injury and may be best served by another season in college.

Frank Franklin II/Associated Press

3. CB Ronald Darby, Florida State

If you caught the Notre Dame vs. Florida State game, you noticed Corey Robinson having a big night at wide receiver for the Fighting Irish. He did that damage against Ronald Darby.

The FSU cornerback has speed and is a top-level athlete, but he's a smaller cornerback prospect despite being listed at 5'11", as he's probably closer to 5'10". Darby's speed is good, but he has to learn to play more physically and be more aggressive when playing the ball. Small cornerbacks must win with positioning and/or leaping ability, and Darby hasn't shown those strengths yet.

4. FS Kurtis Drummond, Michigan State

The Michigan State defense is among the most talented and feared in college football, and free safety Kurtis Drummond is part of that. But looking at his NFL draft prospects, Drummond has struggled and is slipping down the board.

Drummond is a good tackler in space, but has to show better fluid movements when tracking the ball or working in coverage. In a year lacking a top-end free safety prospect, Drummond could still be a Round 2 player.

5. OLB Leonard Floyd, Georgia

Since an early-season rise up the board, redshirt sophomore Leonard Floyd hasn't had the impact many expected. In fact, he's been rather quiet all together. 

Floyd has undeniable talent and athleticism, but he has to have production, too. Floyd was mentioned here at one point as a top-15 type of talent, but he looks like more of a project than originally thought. That won't keep him out of the first round, but will put him in the second half of the round instead of the first.

 

Scouting Report: La'el Collins, LSU

Throughout the 2014 college football season, one senior draft prospect will be highlighted each week with a first-look scouting report.

Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images

Offensive Tackle, LSU (6'5", 315 lbs)

Strengths

Weaknesses

Pro Player Comparison: Branden Albert, Miami Dolphins

Scouting Dictionary

"Click and Close"

When a defensive back is asked to break on the football and run to it, that's what a scout (or coach) will call his "click-and-close" ability. 

This phrase comes from the defensive back clicking his heels together to change direction and then closing on the ball. When coached as a defender, you're taught a "T-step" for changing direction. One foot forms the base and the other forms the corner, making a loose "T" with their feet. The player can then explode from his base and change direction to close on the ball. I've seen high school coaches call this an "L-step," but often in the NFL and college it's called a "T."

If you see a cornerback or safety going from their backpedal or zone drop to a sprint to close on the ball, that's their "click-and-close" ability.

The Big Board

With October at the halfway point, here's an updated look at my top 15 defensive players for the 2015 NFL draft.

Top 15 Defensive Players
Rank Player Pos. School
1 Leonard Williams DT USC
2 Randy Gregory DE Nebraska
3 Vic Beasley OLB Clemson
4 Landon Collins SS Alabama
5 Shaq Thompson OLB Washington
6 Shane Ray DE Missouri
7 Michael Bennett DT Ohio State
8 Marcus Peters CB Washington
9 Shawn Oakman DE Baylor
10 Dante Fowler DE Florida
11 Shilique Calhoun DE Michigan State
12 Benardrick McKinney ILB Mississippi State
13 Leonard Floyd OLB Georgia
14 Ifo Ekpre-Olomu CB Oregon
15 Mario Edwards DE Florida State
Matt Miller

Parting Shots

10. A guideline to player evaluation and scouting is that college production does not equal NFL talent. And that is important to note this time of year as players start to pile up huge numbers. A quality NFL prospect has talent that leads to production, but many college players simply have big numbers due to their system, the talent around them or the level of competition they play. This is why "box score scouting" will lead to bad draft picks.

9. I've long felt that wide receiver is one of the hardest positions to transition from college to the NFL. This year's class of rookies, though, is proving that theory wrong. Sammy Watkins, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, Mike Evans, John Brown and Kelvin Benjamin are all making early contributions in their first season.

What's the cause? Colleges are running offenses and coaching players more like the NFL does, and this leads to faster acclimation to an NFL system and practice style.

8. The University of Buffalo had a legitimate top-five player in the 2014 draft class—linebacker Khalil Mack. They also had a star running back in Branden Oliver, but his 5'7" frame and 4.6 speed in the 40-yard dash left him looking like a college talent only. 

Whoops.

Oliver has been exceptional for the San Diego Chargers as an undrafted free agent. 

7. Twitter followers are fascinated with finding out where I had players ranked predraft, and lately St. Louis Rams quarterback Austin Davis is a hot topic in that area. 

Before the 2012 NFL draft, I had Davis ranked No. 163 overall. NFL teams disagreed, and the Southern Miss star went undrafted. And while Davis isn't lighting the NFL on fire with the Rams, he's been surprisingly solid with Sam Bradford out.

6. Have you noticed that few people are talking about the talent in the 2015 draft class? It's normal to hear how "next year" is going to be great, but this year's class is so far leveling out as average with the 2016 class projected to have elite, can't-miss talent (Robert Nkemdiche, Laquan Treadwell and Joey Bosa). 

Why is this happening? Look at the record number of underclassmen leaving college each year. The 2012 draft was amazing (Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Luke Kuechly, Russell Wilson, etc.), but the 2013 class was average at best. Look at 2014 and you see an all-time great class in terms of projected talent, and 2015 looks to be average. It's very likely this every-other-year trend in draft talent sticks if the high number of underclassmen heading to the NFL continues.

5. Florida State boasts a talented roster right now, which is no surprise given their status as the reigning champions. The NFL is taking notice, though, and the talent is likely to be depleted quickly in the 2015 draft. On offense, FSU stands likely to lose nine starters and on defense they'll conservatively lose four starters. 

Jimbo Fisher has done a marvelous job recruiting to FSU, and he'll be relying on that youth next season.

4. Elite cornerback play is a massive need in the NFL right now (which is pretty obvious), but where will that talent come from? The 2015 NFL draft doesn't look like much of a group at this stage.

Heading into Week 8 of the NFL season, not one cornerback is ranked inside my top 20 players—and that's including all likely underclassmen to enter. The value of free-agent cornerbacks and young players with developmental potential will be very high in the upcoming offseason. If your favorite team needs a cornerback, you might look to free agency for quick fixes and the late first round as a good value for a rookie impact.

3. Oct. 28 is the NFL trade deadline, and while it's rare to see much activity, here are some names I could see (and would like to see) moved: Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Jermaine Gresham and Mike Wallace. Yes, that's a lot of pass-catchers, but there's a big demand (Seattle, New England, Kansas City) and the asking prices might not be that high.

2. A question came in through Twitter this week asking who some future NFL general managers might be. Here's my short list: Chris Ballard (Chiefs director of scouting), Eric DeCosta (Ravens assistant general manager), Matt Russell (Broncos director of player personnel), Marc Ross (Giants director of scouting college), Nick Caserio (Patriots director of player personnel), Omar Khan (Steelers director of football and business administration) and Matt Malaspina (49ers director of college scouting). 

1. I don't know if Peyton Manning is the greatest quarterback of all time—those discussions are probably left for better historians of the game—but I do know what he's been able to do as he ages is simply amazing. Sure, critics will point to his postseason record (and I'll counter with wins and losses being a team result, not a quarterback stat), but no one can argue that Manning's greatness is mind-boggling. Remember, it wasn't that long ago when no one was sure Manning would ever throw a football again as a pro quarterback. And yet here he is breaking career and single-season records and making it look easy.

   

Read 0 Comments

Download the app for comments Get the B/R app to join the conversation

Install the App
×
Bleacher Report
(120K+)