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Will Joel Embiid or Nerlens Noel Be Better in the Prime of Their Careers?

Jonathan Wasserman

For most of their one-and-done freshmen years in college, both Joel Embiid and Nerlens Noel were considered the prize of their respective draft classes. Major late-season injuries ultimately clouded the allure tied to each, with Noel tearing his ACL in February 2013 and Embiid breaking a bone in his foot after having already suffered a stress fracture in his back. 

And while it may have affected their draft stocks, nothing ever changed with regard to the height of either prospects' towering NBA ceiling. Maybe their chances of reaching it, given Embiid's and Noel's early signs of fragility. But at full strength, if these guys hit their stride, we could be talking about two of the more feared big men in the league once they peak—just not for the same reasons. 

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Despite Noel and Embiid both sharing the same natural position—center—their identities and outlooks are vastly different.

Whether these guys can develop or play together is a whole separate debate itself. With Embiid likely to miss his rookie year in recovery, the Sixers have been experimenting with Noel at power forward in preparation for next season when they'll share the frontcourt together. 

But make no mistake about it—for Noel to succeed at the 4, we're going to have to see his game evolve significantly. 

Because right now, it's the 5 position that allows him to play to his strengths, and it's where he shot 59 percent and led the country in shot-blocking at Kentucky. 

Noel's game is fueled by athleticism, instincts and energy. In comparison to Embiid, he's much bouncier and seemingly more elastic. Not that Embiid is a stiff out there, but Noel is lighter on his feet both laterally and vertically.

The appeal to Noel really stems from his ability to make plays off the ball. And most of them happen right at the rim or above it.

Tip-ins, unstoppable catch-and-finishes, tap-backs, rejections, deflections, fast-break buckets—Noel could double-double without using a dribble the entire game. 

Offensively, Noel's bread-and-butter isn't likely to change from now until he's a washed up veteran with a salt-and-pepper flattop. He's a monster target in the pick-and-roll and drive-and-dump games, a clean-up machine off misses, and as long as those legs keep kicking, he'll be a threat in transition. 

However, Noel hasn't established himself as a go-to option the way Embiid has. Noel's ball skills are limited in terms of creating—he's not a guy you'd typically feed in the post and ask to get you a bucket.

You can ask Embiid, and that's essentially what drives his eye-opening two-way upside.

You just don't see too many NBA centers nowadays who represent primary options in their offense. Embiid flashed the potential to be that guy, given his textbook footwork, sky-high release point and soft touch.

A ridiculously quick learner, Embiid perfected old moves and implemented new ones to his arsenal as his freshman year progressed. Dream Shakes, up-and-unders, spins, drop steps into layups, hop steps into jump hooks—Embiid has the ability to ultimately separate into a high-percentage shot while working one-on-one, something Noel has shown very little of since his days as a high school standout.

We've even seen Embiid start knocking down jumpers with visible comfort. Though not quite a weapon just yet, there's reason to believe it could be later on. He did shoot 68.5 percent from the line in 2013-14 (Noel shot just 52.9 percent), a decent number for an inexperienced 7-footer. 

As freshmen in different years, Embiid got to the stripe 39 more times than Noel did in 118 fewer minutes. It's not the greatest sample size, but I think it's a strong reflection of the superior threat Embiid is with the ball.  

Defensively, Embiid has all the tools required to offer top-shelf rim protection. Thanks to a massive 7'5" wingspan and predator-like mentality, he blocked 2.6 shots a game last year in only 23.1 minutes (4.5 per 40).

But Embiid didn't show the same defensive IQ as Noel, who led the country in shot-blocking his freshman season. Noel's spectacular timing and instincts become even more effective when they're powered by so much spring and explosiveness. 

In terms of team and individual defense, Noel just "gets it" a little more. Embiid averaged 5.8 personal fouls per 40 minutes last season. Noel averaged just 3.2 per 40 at Kentucky.

As a pro, Embiid will have to learn how to move his feet and challenge without breaking the plane. It usually takes a few years for most centers to adjust to the NBA whistle, and that'll be no different for Embiid. 

Noel also offers a little more defensive versatility, particularly as a pick-and-roll and one-on-one defender away from the basket. Embiid is more of an anchor (not a bad thing), given his 20 extra pounds of mass, while Noel's mobility requires less effort.

Michael Perez/Associated Press

If you're a Sixers fan hopeful for the future, your two biggest concerns are whether Embiid and Noel can stay healthy and whether or not they fit alongside each other on the court.  

Let's just imagine that health is no longer an issue for either player once Embiid returns to full strength, only his fit with Noel just isn't working. It's a possibility. Both players make a living in the paint, while neither projects as a stretch 4 or 5. What kind of spacing will that create? Any? 

The Sixers may eventually have to entertain the idea of moving one of their prized big men sometime during or after the 2015-16 season. 

Obviously, we'd have a lot more information by then on each prospect. I'm sure picking who to keep versus who to deal would be easier two years from now. 

But instead of waiting, we're going to make that decision today, and quite frankly, I'm not even sure the call is that close. 

What Embiid did last year was nuts. It wasn't just the upside he flashed or the numbers he put up—it was the gradual progression we saw from day one to March. 

The fact that he's only played organized ball for roughly three to four years makes you wonder just how much he'll grow long term with NBA coaching and amenities. 

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And while I admire what Noel brings to the table, I've ultimately got more questions regarding his game and outlook. At 230 pounds, can he hold his own down low against starting NBA-caliber big men? He sure doesn't have a skill set wired for the perimeter—without a jump shot, handle or the traditional bulk of a 5, is it possible he struggles to take off while stuck between positions?

At 250 pounds, Embiid will have to put on muscle, but he sure fits the physical profile of an NBA center, and he's got the post game and defensive tools to match it.

With Embiid, the only real concern or red flag is durability, and I'm just not ready to declare him more injury-prone than Noel, who also fractured his knee in high school in addition to tearing his ACL in college.

Regardless, if we're strictly talking basketball, the value attached to a guy who can generate his own offense is typically greater than the value associated with someone who doesn't. 

And given the strides Embiid made last year, the skills he's showcased and the impact he had on games—Embiid was seeing routine double-teams by the time he established himself at Kansas—consider me a believer in his development and ability to continue improving. 

Our own Bleacher Report's Jason King pegged him as the best prospect out of Kansas since Danny Manning and an All-Star for years to come. 

Coach Brett Brown apparently has high hopes as well. 

“I hope that we can, ultimately, build a program where you can have the center of our universe—that I see Joel Embiid to be—sprinkled around people who can shoot the ball and let him have the space he needs,” Brown told Christopher Vito of The Daily Times.

Meanwhile, Noel has a bright future ahead of him. Being drafted after Anthony Bennett, Alex Len and Cody Zeller was a borderline crime. He's going to make a couple of general managers look awfully foolish down the road. 

But based on everything we've seen, from his money offensive game to his fiery competitive edge, Embiid has given off one of the strongest impressions for a big man we've seen in a while. 

And I've bought in. 

   

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