Value is in the eye of the beholder, or so the saying goes. It's particularly true in the NFL draft, where value is subjective based on numerous mitigating factors that change based on situation.
However, some draft picks are viewed as poor value at the time of their occurrence, which, in fact, turns out to be true. These potential selections are what teams wants to avoid.
The Bleacher Report Scouting Department is here to help by identifying six prospects with plenty of momentum that might be somewhat undeserved relative to where they should be drafted.
This exercise comes with the understanding that all team boards are different and far smaller than those in the public. Also, NFL front offices are privy to information that analysts aren't (medical evaluations, interviews, etc.).
With all of this in mind, six prospects currently graded as second-rounders by B/R appear to be creeping into the first-round range and possibly going relatively high in the process. Who are they and which teams may target them?
QB Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss
Every single year, the conversation eventually lands on quarterback prospects who are pumped up throughout the process despite not having tape that suggests they're worth a first-round pick.
Higher positional value doesn't always mean prospects are going to be driven up the board.
Did it happen a year ago? Yes. Conversely, the 2022 class wasn't chock-full of first-rounders despite multiple needs there.
During this cycle, two quarterback prospects are viewed as solid first-round options. Miami's Cam Ward and Colorado's Shedeur Sanders are expected to be off the board relatively early, though. Supply won't meet demand when it comes to other QB-starved teams looking for a new face of the franchise.
Enter Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart.
He is the latest darling coming off his Senior Bowl performance, which should be viewed as solid but not great.
"An NFC executive agreed that first-round talk is misguided, noting that Lane Kiffin's system at Ole Miss is a 'mess' for incoming NFL quarterbacks and doesn't translate," ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported. "That showed early in the week, with Dart looking uncomfortable calling plays in the huddle and taking snaps under center. But he improved his comfort level in later practices. The safer bet for Dart would be early Day 2, but supply and demand looms large in the quarterback market over the next three months."
To the point about the Rebels' scheme and how it's viewed as a negative in league circles, B/R scout Dame Parson broke down the issues Dart faces:
"As a result of Ole Miss' heavily schemed offense, processing past the first read is slower than expected for a senior quarterback. Dart is accustomed to favorable schemed/open routes that he struggles to quickly get through his reads and find the next open target if the initial read is covered. Dart does not anticipate throwing lanes well at this stage of his career. He is a see-it, throw-it style passer. Instead of anticipating the receiver's breaks and throwing before completion, he waits for the target to separate and work themselves open. This leads to holding onto the football and inviting pressure."
The physical traits are present in Dart's skill set, and he has some play-maker to his game. At the same time, he looks more like a long-term investment who will take time to reach full maturation.
Those initial aspects may be all an NFL team needs to make an investment sooner rather than later in the 21-year-old quarterback, especially if one is able to trade back into the first round and ensure a fifth-year option on his rookie contract.
Team Most Likely to Overdraft: New Orleans Saints
OT Josh Conerly Jr., Oregon
Oregon's Josh Conerly Jr. entered Senior Bowl week with the chance to secure the status of OT1. It didn't happen.
To be fair, no one in Mobile, Alabama, asserted themselves as a dominant offensive tackle prospect, which speaks to this position class as a whole.
However, Conerly had his struggles and didn't elevate his status.
Currently, B/R grades the Oregon product as a OT3, which could be OT4 depending on how a team views LSU's Will Campbell, the class' top offensive lineman overall.
From an offensive tackle perspective, Missouri's Armand Membou didn't have an opportunity to make his claim due to an illness that didn't allow him to compete at the Senior Bowl. Still, he has advantages over Conerly with his physicality.
Ohio State's Josh Simmons had the inside track to be the top name at the position until he suffered a torn patellar tendon. His medical evaluation at the NFL combine will go a long way to determine where he ultimately falls during the draft.
"Overall, Conerly has good athletic ability, recovery skills, and the frame of a starting tackle while turning the corner in his development over the second half of the season that increased his sustain and anchoring skills," B/R scout Brandon Thorn said in his evaluation.
"Conerly is still very young with the runway and physical tools to start at tackle as a rookie in a zone-based run scheme."
The final sentence is important, because it speaks to his development. Conerly won't turn 22 until November. He still needs to improve his play-strength, but his upside at a premium position will likely be far too tempting at some point in the mid-to-late first round for a team in desperate need of a blindside protector to pass.
Team Most Likely to Overdraft: Los Angeles Rams
OG Donovan Jackson, Ohio State
Donovan Jackson's inclusion comes with an asterisk.
His potential ascension is based off the idea that his time at left tackle for the injured Josh Simmons during the Ohio State Buckeyes' national championship run created intrigue among NFL evaluators.
Jackson is a natural guard prospect. He joined the Buckeyes program as the nation's No. 1 interior line recruit and then started over 30 consecutive games at left guard before bumping out to tackle.
To his credit, Jackson held down the blind side. He was exploited during the Buckeyes' meeting with the Penn State Nittany Lions, who featured a pair of future professional pass-rushers. But he proved to be relatively strong at the position during Ohio State's postseason run.
The first-team All-American showed he can play the premium position in a pinch. An NFL team could draft him with the intention of playing him at left tackle, thus increasing his positional value and draft standing.
However, the idea goes against what Jackson does extremely well, per Thorn:
"Jackson is best as a downhill run-blocker, being thick and heavy on vertical double-teams with connected elbows and hips to generate displacement. He is a functional puller who can seal or kick the end man on the line of scrimmage and has a good feel on when to stay or release on zone combinations. He brings a physical presence and strains hard to finish once latched. Jackson runs into trouble against tightly aligned or head-up defenders where he tends to step out of his stance, misjudge his aiming points, and fall off of blocks quickly. He also will fail to redirect, reset, and recover from consistently compromising positions, usually being late."
Just because Jackson showed he can play offensive tackle doesn't mean he's going to be one at the highest level.
Team Most Likely to Overdraft: Kansas City Chiefs
Edge Shemar Stewart, Texas A&M
Talent evaluation is based on potential. Potential is the ability to excel at the next level from traits that an individual presents. Production over time can be used as a guideline for how traits are translating onto the field. But not all top-level potential is accompanied by outstanding production.
Case in point, Texas A&M's Shemar Stewart is a traits-based prospect. He's a 6'5", 281-pound defensive with 34.5-inch arms and explosive athleticism. The 21-year-old defender can be used up and down the line of scrimmage.
The underclassman excelled at the Senior Bowl against all-star talent and then chose to leave the event after two outstanding practices.
"He stamped himself as the best player," an NFL personnel evaluator told ESPN's Jeremy Fowler.
No one is going to deny Stewart's impressive physical tools, yet the defensive lineman managed only 4.5 sacks over three collegiate seasons. He didn't generate significant pressure, either, even by collegiate standards.
"[The] former Aggie is a project as a pass-rusher," B/R Scout Matt Holder wrote in his assessment. "His movement skills are worth working with, but his pass-rush arsenal is currently limited due to poor hand use. Also, he has subpar bend due to some tightness in his lower body, making it difficult for him to corner at the top of the rush and take efficient paths to the quarterback."
NFL teams fall in love with upside, even without premium production, hence why players such as Travon Walker and Odafe Oweh became first-round selections. Still, a team investing in Stewart must understand he's a significant work-in-progress.
Team Most Likely to Overdraft: Atlanta Falcons
Edge JT Tuimoloau, Ohio State
Ohio State's JT Tuimoloau is not a complete defensive end. Despite being a 5-star recruit who turned into three-time first-team All-Big Ten selection, he lacks the all-around skill set to earn a first-round grade. But those factors, plus continued improvement throughout his collegiate career, could easily push him into the opening frame.
The 21-year-old definitely played his best late in his final season on campus. His 12.5 sacks in 2024 surpassed his combined production during the previous three seasons. The hang-up with his evaluation is top-end athleticism, or lack thereof.
Tuimoloau wins through power and hustle, which is perfectly fine as a viable starting option. At the same time, that particular skill set caps how effective he can be as an NFL edge-rusher.
"He has great size and can be a good run defender with his strength and physicality at the point of attack," Holder noted in his scouting report. "Setting the edge is fairly easy for him, and he can get off blocks to make plays against the rushing attack.
"The biggest issue with Tuimoloau is he hasn't shown a lot of athletic traits that can help him be a productive pass-rusher at the next level. He is solid with a bull rush and spin move, but he lacks twitch and bend to win around the edge consistently."
Basically, the Buckeyes defensive end is a low-ceiling, high-floor prospect.
For teams in particular need of edge help that won't be within range of the more athletic and explosive pass-rushers, who typically land early in the first round, they can still acquire a good bookend in Tuimoloau. He is going to play the run well, set the edge, give some push when pass-rushing and always hustle.
Those things will likely be good enough for some franchise.
Team Most Likely to Overdraft: Detroit Lions
CB Azareye'h Thomas, Florida State
Florida State's Azareye'h Thomas is another traits-based prospect. He fits the mold of today's preferred cornerback as a tall, long and physical defender, but he's only 20 years old and still has a long way to go in regards to development.
"Though he has shown decent man skills; his size, length, and physicality make him an appealing fit for press and zone-heavy schemes, where his ability to disrupt routes and contest passes will be maximized," B/R scout Cory Giddings stated. "While his technique and consistency in both the run and pass games need improvement, Thomas' athletic traits and competitive mentality provide a solid foundation for growth. With refinement, he has the potential to become a valuable contributor in an NFL secondary."
In an optimal situation, Thomas will be placed into a heavy man-press scheme where he can use his 6'1" frame and 32.5-inch arms to reroute targets near the line of scrimmage. However, his inconsistencies in both hand usage, angles and footwork will make him prone to clean losses against the NFL's better route-runners or the bigger, more physical targets who can handle his jam.
Plus, Thomas still needs to run at the NFL combine to see if he has the top-end speed to remain in phase against the league's speedsters.
Bigger corners simply aren't as fluid as their smaller counterparts. The early entrant had a lot of nice wins during his week at the Senior Bowl. At the same time, though, he can be shook in small spaces by shiftier targets.
An interested franchise must factor this natural give-and-take into the evaluation and understand a few ugly losses are likely forthcoming early in Thomas' career.
Team Most Likely to Overdraft: Green Bay Packers
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