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Pitching Trade Packages for Padres Ace Dylan Cease amid MLB Rumors

Zachary D. Rymer

Another week, another excuse to ponder trade possibilities for a San Diego Padres ace.

Last week, it was Michael King whose name was making the rounds in rumors. Yet the focus has since boomeranged back to Dylan Cease, which puts him in an all-too-familiar position.

It was only last March that the Padres acquired the right-hander from the Chicago White Sox. He has nonetheless been on the trading block since December, when Dennis Lin of The Athletic reported San Diego was "exploring" his trade value.

There has been consistent chatter about the 29-year-old ever since, including a couple recent rumors connecting him to prominent teams in Chicago and New York.

It all feels like a good excuse to discuss what those two teams and more could offer for Cease. But first, we have to go deeper into his trade candidacy.

What Is Cease's Trade Value?

Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images

Given the circumstances, it's not exactly surprising that Cease is on the block.

The Padres are in a tough spot, as a massive payroll cut for the 2024 season is now being followed by a legal fight over control of the franchise. And while nobody is outright saying it, the sheer variety of names that have appeared in trade rumors suggests the franchise would like to get under the luxury-tax threshold.

To this end, clearing Cease and his $13.8 million salary would put roughly $10 million between the Padres' tax payroll and the first threshold for penalties.

For prospective buyers, the catch is that Cease is slated to become a free agent after the 2025 season. The benefit, though, is that he's very, very good.

Cease has a 3.52 ERA to show for his last four seasons, not to mention an MLB-leading 891 strikeouts. His stuff in general rates as elite, while his slider in particular is firmly in the Best Pitch in Baseball conversation.

Baseball Trade Values puts his surplus value at $33.6 million. It's a lot for a rental, so the Padres may indeed be able to flip him for the kind of package that Lin teased in December: one for multiple controllable players, ideally including one starting pitcher.

Cease's market is almost certainly smaller now than it was in December, but seven teams still stand out as reasonable landing spots. Let's rank them according to how practical they are as trading partners for the Padres and pitch some proposals as we go.

Note: Farm system and prospect rankings are according to B/R's Joel Reuter.

7. Atlanta Braves

AJ Smith-Shawver Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images

Trade Proposal: Atlanta Braves get RHP Dylan Cease; San Diego Padres get C Drake Baldwin (Braves No. 1), RHP AJ Smith-Shawver (Braves No. 3)

Why It Works for the Braves

There's at least one good reason why this concept is out of bounds, and it has to do with Spencer Strider.

The 26-year-old is less than a year removed from major elbow surgery, but David O'Brien of The Athletic reported that the strikeout-happy righty is "expected to have more or less a normal spring training." If so, he could return early in 2025.

This said, the uncertainty in Atlanta's rotation is palpable. Max Fried and Charlie Morton are gone, after all. And in addition to Strider's durability, the Braves should also be worried about Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale's age. He'll turn 36 on March 30.

This proposal would be a heavy price to pay from the Braves' perspective, but Cease need not be a one-year fix. This is a franchise that loves its extensions.

Why It Works for the Padres

The Padres had to give up three of their best prospects to get Cease, so this deal would do a lot to replenish the ranks.

For his part, Smith-Shawver could step into San Diego's rotation right away. The 22-year-old righty showed a 96.2 mph fastball in the majors last season, with a changeup that drew whiffs at a 37.5 percent clip.

Whereas Baldwin is looking up at Sean Murphy in Atlanta, the 23-year-old could immediately hope for playing time in San Diego. As things stand, catcher is a relative weakness for the Padres.

6. Milwaukee Brewers

DL Hall Chris Coduto/Getty Images

Trade Proposal: Milwaukee Brewers get RHP Dylan Cease; San Diego Padres get LHP DL Hall, C Jeferson Quero (Brewers No. 2)

Why It Works for the Brewers

The Brewers have already made one attempt to trade for an ace this winter. They were reportedly in on Garrett Crochet before he went to Boston.

That was a while ago, but the situation with Milwaukee's rotation hasn't exactly improved. The club is still anticipating getting Brandon Woodruff back from shoulder surgery this year, but manager Pat Murphy does not expect that to happen at the outset.

That leaves Freddy Peralta, Tobias Myers and Nestor Cortes as the Brewers' best starting options. It's not a great trio, but it would be a perfectly solid foursome if Cease were to be placed at the head of the pack.

As for whether Milwaukee would really trade Quero, let's put it this way: William Contreras is arguably the best catcher in baseball, and his club control extends for another three years.

Why It Works for the Padres

As with the Atlanta concept, the idea here for San Diego would be to flip Cease for a long-term solution at catcher.

How much offensive upside Quero, 22, has is a good question, but his defense comes with nary a question mark. Notably, he has a rare ability to control the running game, which has been a real struggle for San Diego amid this new era of bigger bases and step-off limits.

Hall is a former top prospect in his own right, and he has at least two good pitches to work with in his slider and changeup. He could step right into the Padres' rotation.

5. Boston Red Sox

Wilyer Abreu Paul Rutherford/Getty Images

Trade Proposal: Boston Red Sox get RHP Dylan Cease; San Diego Padres get RF Wilyer Abreu, RHP Cooper Criswell

Why It Works for the Red Sox

The Red Sox and Cease is not an out-of-left-field combination. Before acquiring Garrett Crochet, Boston was reportedly in on Cease in December.

If you're thinking that ship has sailed after the Red Sox added both Crochet and Walker Buehler, well, that is fair. And let's not forget the pending return of Lucas Giolito from elbow surgery, which will further deepen Boston's rotation options.

Yet as talented as said rotation is on paper, the Red Sox have reason to keep the workloads of Crochet, Buehler and Giolito in check this season. And besides, trading another bat for another arm would be a good way to clear their logjam of young hitters.

To this end, moving Abreu would open a spot for Roman Anthony, who was recently revealed as MLB.com's No. 1 hitting prospect.

Why It Works for the Padres

If this return feels light on San Diego's side, that may be because you're underrating Abreu.

He's only 25 and his Gold Glove win in 2024 was well-earned, as he co-led right fielders with seven Outs Above Average. Some combination of him, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill would give the Padres a defensive powerhouse in the outfield.

Abreu otherwise had a .825 OPS against right-handers in 2024. And while Criswell would be more of a throw-in as part of this package, he's a guy who can get you some ground balls at the back end of a rotation.

4. Baltimore Orioles

Heston Kjerstad G Fiume/Getty Images

Trade Proposal: Baltimore Orioles get RHP Dylan Cease; San Diego Padres get Heston Kjerstad, RHP Chayce McDermott (Orioles No. 3)

Why It Works for the Orioles

Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano may be aboard, but the Orioles still have a hole atop their rotation where Corbin Burnes used to be.

They've been connected to a number of potential solutions in this regard. Among them is Cease, who Jon Morosi of MLB Network linked to the Orioles in December.

It's an imperfect fit, given Cease's proximity to free agency and the degree to which Baltimore has already skyrocketed its payroll relative to 2024. But Burnes-for-Cease is more than a fair swap talent-wise, as they can lay claim to being the two nastiest hurlers in MLB.

Though this acquisition price would be a heavy one for Baltimore, it wouldn't cost anything the team is likely to miss. Kjerstad doesn't have a clear avenue to a starting role, and McDermott is more of a project than a can't-miss prospect.

Why It Works for the Padres

Whereas Kjerstad is blocked from playing time by Cedric Mullins, Colton Cowser and Tyler O'Neill, left field would be open for him in San Diego.

The 25-year-old would bring star-caliber upside to the position. Though Kjerstad has yet to break through in the majors, each of his last two seasons in the minors have yielded an OPS over .900.

The problem with the 26-year-old McDermott is that he lacks control. But the stuff plays, as he's fanned 13.0 batters per nine innings for his minor league career.

3. Minnesota Twins

David Festa Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images

Trade Proposal: Minnesota Twins get RHP Dylan Cease; San Diego Padres get RHP David Festa, INF/OF Willi Castro

Why It Works for the Twins

This is where things start to get real, as it was only recently (January 22) that Lin and Dan Hayes of The Athletic connected the Twins to Cease.

It's an odd fit at first glance, if for no other reason than things are in limbo in Minnesota. Though Hayes has reported a deal could be done before Opening Day, the fact remains that the Twins are up for sale.

Yet the match makes more sense from a roster-building perspective. Minnesota's rotation has been short an impact arm ever since Sonny Gray left town. Cease fits the bill, and he would reinvigorate the bat-missing prowess the Twins had in 2023.

Castro was an All-Star last year, but he's not exactly indispensable. The same goes for Festa, who seems to be on the outside looking in at the Twins' rotation.

Why It Works for the Padres

Castro would be an immediately usable piece for the Padres, who could start him in left field and also give him time at other positions as needed.

Otherwise, they would certainly only do this trade if they were confident they could make something of the 24-year-old Festa.

It would not be a fool's errand. The 6'6", 185-pounder is a former top prospect whose minor league numbers include a 3.47 ERA and 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings. And while he only had a 4.90 ERA in 64.1 innings for the Twins in 2024, he also fanned 10.8 per nine.

2. New York Mets

Brandon Sproat Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images

Trade Proposal: New York Mets get RHP Dylan Cease; San Diego Padres get RHP Brandon Sproat (Mets No. 1), OF Drew Gilbert (Mets No. 7)

Why It Works for the Mets

This is where things continue to get real, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported on January 30 that the Mets have talked to the Padres about Cease.

The Mets already have starting options aplenty. Kodai Senga will be healthy in 2025, and the club has added Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas on free-agent deals.

However, five of members of the team's potential six-man rotation are over 30. And of the bunch, none truly matches the description of a No. 1 like Cease does.

This package would be difficult for the Mets to part with, but such boldness is arguably necessary if they want to keep up with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the broader NL race.

Why It Works for the Padres

Though he took his licks (i.e., a 7.53 ERA) upon reaching Triple-A last season, there isn't much doubt Sproat has the goods to hack it as a major league starter.

The 24-year-old can run his fastball up over 100 mph, and he complements it with a slider and changeup that both earn plus grades. He'd be a candidate to crack the San Diego rotation sometime in 2025, perhaps as early as Opening Day.

Gilbert, 24, had a rough year in 2024, missing time with a hamstring injury and otherwise batting .205 in 62 games. Yet he still has a solid hit-first offensive profile that could likewise be of use sometime this year.

1. Chicago Cubs

Kevin Alcántara Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images

Trade Proposal: Chicago Cubs get RHP Dylan Cease; San Diego Padres get C Moises Ballesteros (Cubs No. 3), OF Kevin Alcántara (Cubs No. 6)

Why It Works for the Cubs

Last but not least, Morosi issued this word of warning on Cease and the Cubs on January 30:

As with the Mets, another starter feels more like a want than a need for the Cubs. Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon are a strong front three, and then there's newcomer Matthew Boyd and Javier Assad.

And yet, Cubs ownership is hearing it from fans that the team hasn't done enough to solidify its status as contenders. They're not wrong, and it's notable that this team lacked swing-and-miss from its starters in 2024.

Matt Shaw is "off limits," according to Heyman, but the Cubs have more to offer beyond him. In this case, they'd serve up two prospects who don't have clear paths to playing time on the North Side.

Why It Works for the Padres

The issue with this deal for San Diego is that it doesn't include a starter. But if not via trade, they could look to solve that with a free agent such as Nick Pivetta.

What this trade would give the Padres is potential starters at both catcher and left field. The 21-year-old Ballesteros may only be a temporary solution at the former because of his poor defensive outlook, but his bat would play at first base if need be.

For his part, the 22-year-old Alcántara is a 6'6", 188-pound bucket of tools who has already seen time in the majors. He'd be a candidate to play left field in San Diego.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

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