Last week, the NHL and NHLPA announced exciting news: After the pandemic stagnated player salaries, the cap ceiling will rise significantly over the next three years. The current $88 million cap ceiling is expected to reach $95.5 million in 2025-26, $104 million in 2026-27, and $113.5 million in 2027-28.
For context, the NHL's pre-pandemic cap was $81.5 million in 2019-20, and it only increased to $88 million in the current 2024-25 season. The financial jump is huge for the league, and the certainty about the figures three years into the future is the kicker.
Teams and players will be able to negotiate with knowledge of significant rises on the horizon.
In other words, star players are about to get paid, and teams will have to pay them or lose them.
We're about to see record deal after record deal. But realistically, what could some of the most anticipated contracts look like? Could we see our first $20 million cap hit? Let's take our first crack at some estimates around the league.
Artemi Panarin, New York Rangers

Artemi Panarin became one of the highest-paid wingers in the league when he signed his seven-year, $81,499,999 contract in 2019. It'll expire at the end of the 2025-26 season as the Bread Man approaches 35 years old.
Panarin's approaching his mid-30s, but he's got a 120-point career-high from 2023-24 to bargain with, and he already makes over $11.5 million against the cap. You have to think there will be a significant increase, even if it's essentially keeping up with cap "inflation." Meanwhile, the Rangers just signed Igor Shesterkin to a greater than $12 million AAV, but they traded away Jacob Trouba's enormous cap hit among others.
Who knows what the Rangers will do next with their roster at this point, but they should have enough to pull off a deal for Panarin. That commanded 14.29 percent of the Rangers' total cap at the start. The cap ceiling jumps to $95.5 million in 2025-26 and $104 million in 2026-27, so you're looking at a cap hit in the $13 million to $16 million range proportionally. The term might be the most fascinating aspect considering he's a star who is still in his prime but is undeniably aging, and it'll of course have an impact on the AAV.
Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche
When you remember that the Avalanche have to take care of an extension for one of the top two defensemen in the league by the end of 2026-27—and when you remember they have operated under an internal cap—you understand why they let Mikko Rantanen go to test the brave, new free market.
Makar will be going for what will likely end up the biggest contract of his career, as he'll be 28 when his current six-year, $54 million contract with a $9 million AAV expires. He and Quinn Hughes were set to become the league's highest-paid defensemen regardless, and now that number will jump even higher.
Erik Karlsson is currently the league's highest-paid defenseman with his $11.5 million cap hit. This is 13.06 percent of the current cap, which was not the case when he signed it in 2019, but the figure will be used in these negotiations. Thirteen percent of $113 million is $14.69 million, and it's fair to assume Makar will bring in something around that range.
Connor Bedard, Chicago Blackhawks
2023 No. 1 draft pick Connor Bedard's second contract will begin in the 2026-27 season -- right on schedule for a fat paycheck!
He had a bit of a sophomore slump at the beginning of this season, but it's hard to fully blame him given the roster around him and some of the lineup decisions he had no control over. Regardless, he's picked it back up in the second half, and he's got another season to prove himself before payday.
The Blackhawks are already swimming in cap space that was essentially designed to revolve around him as the No. 1 center, and Bedard's camp will rightfully argue that. Star centers have historically been the highest-paid players on a team. According to PuckPedia, at the time of their signing Connor McDavid owned more than 15 percent of the Oilers' cap hit (15.72 percent) and Auston Matthews commanded 15.06 percent of the Leafs' cap hit.
It'll take a super strong season out of Bedard next year to guarantee that 15 percent range. Even if he gets 13.5 percent of the Blackhawks' cap, that'll be around $14 million. Again, it feels generous if Bedard doesn't completely pop off next year, and we could look at something more like 10 or 11 percent of the cap if he doesn't take another big step.
But I'm betting on Connor Bedard.
Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
Could the best hockey player in the world be the first NHL player to achieve a $20 million cap hit? He commanded 15.72 percent of the Oilers' cap (now more like 14) when he signed his $12.5 AAV contract that's set to expire at the end of the 2025-26 season. Sixteen percent of $104 million is "only" $16.64 million, but they're operating knowing it'll jump to $113.5 million the next season—which would look more like $18 million.
Since McDavid signed his previous contract, he's done nothing but improve upon his own record-breaking seasons. He led the team to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final, and he was awarded the Conn Smythe.
Perhaps the most important points? The Oilers have proved willing to spend, and there's likely a team out there that would pay him $20 million in free agency.
Then again, McDavid wants to win, and you doubt he'd take $20 million if it meant significantly impacting signing players that could help him lift a Cup. Keep in mind, it's not just superstars getting a raise.
It'll be fascinating to see how this one plays out, but I can't imagine McDavid signing for less than $17 million per year.
Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs
Perhaps no team is going to benefit from a significant cap increase than the rich and willing-to-spend Toronto Maple Leafs, especially with Mitch Marner's contract looming and his $10.9 million AAV coming off the books this offseason.
The pending UFA is in pace for a career-high 108 points, and his two-way game is stronger than ever. This all, of course, sets the stage for negotiations even more dramatic than the drama and speculation that has already happened over the last few seasons with Marner and Co.
A lot depends on who first sets the new winger market. Will Rantanen re-sign with the Canes in a smaller, presumably lower-budget market? Will Panarin re-sign with the Rangers who have a lot of money to spend? Will either or both of these players look elsewhere and get the highest payday possible?
Marner's case remains one of the trickiest, and we know it's going down to the wire with agent Darren Ferris.
Marner has been, goaltending aside, an MVP candidate for the Leafs this season. He has more leverage than ever, and it's got to feel good no matter what direction he goes.
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