Alex Bregman Jack Gorman/Getty Images

Updated MLB Free-Agent Big Board and Predictions For Best Remaining Players

Kerry Miller

Though we are down to about 100 hours remaining until the first pitchers and catchers report to spring training, the big board of MLB's top free agents available is still kind of loaded.

It's not quite as stacked as it was at this time last year, when Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery were all still weeks away from finally putting pen to paper on their new deals, but Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso still being out there for the taking is a pretty big pair of variables.

Beyond that dynamic duo, there's not another particularly big name yet unclaimed. However, all 25 players remaining on our big board reasonably could play key roles for contenders still searching for the missing piece (or pieces) of the championship puzzle.

In addition to the ranking of the top free agents, we're also offering up fresh predictions on where these 25 players will ultimately land.

In theory, those should be easier now that team needs and estimated remaining spending room are clearer than was the case a couple months ago. Reading the tea leaves never has been an exact science, though, so fingers crossed we at least bat the Mendoza Line on these predictions.

Nos. 25-21: France, Kelly, Quantrill, Moore and Canha

Mark Canha Norm Hall/Getty Images

25. Ty France, 1B (.234/.305/.365, 13 HR, 51 RBI)

The last two seasons for France were rough, and there are quite a few first baseman still available, waiting for Pete Alonso to sign somewhere and pop that bubble. But someone is going to buy low on the hope that this former All-Star can get back to playing like he did from 2020-22. Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates

24. Joe Kelly, RHP (32.0 IP, 4.78 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 9.8 K/9)

Though he's an oft-injured, 36-year-old wild card who has been worth wins below replacement in each of the past three seasons, Kelly does have stretches where he is just unhittable, tallying 13 holds in each of 2023 and 2024. Could be a solid seventh or eighth inning option for a bullpen that still needs work. Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

23. Cal Quantrill, RHP (8-11, 148.1 IP, 4.98 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 6.7 K/9)

Keeping in mind that those numbers from last season were accumulated with the Rockies and that Quantrill had a 3.08 ERA in 368 innings pitched from 2020-22, there should be a fair amount of interest in the starting pitcher who turns 30 on Feb. 10. Still kind of hard to believe the Rockies non-tendered him instead of keeping him for his final year of arbitration eligibility, as he was undeniably one of their most valuable pitchers in 2024. Prediction: Kansas City Royals

22. Matt Moore, LHP (48.1 IP, 5.03 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.6 K/9)

Moore was great in his first two seasons as a full-time reliever, posting a 2.20 ERA between the 2022 and 2023 campaigns. He had a couple of implosions last year, though, and struggled to keep the ball in the park, allowing 2.0 HR/9. Nevertheless, he's probably the best left-handed reliever left on the board, which is something the Yankees didn't have any of prior to re-signing Tim Hill on Tuesday. Prediction: New York Yankees

21. Mark Canha, 1B/OF/DH (.242/.344/.346, 7 HR, 42 RBI, 7 SB)

Canha had a respectable first two-thirds of the season in Detroit, but he went homerless with just four RBI in 85 plate appearances with the Giants. Even at 36, he's still a solid right-handed bat, whose versatility on defense makes him a player who just about every team in the league could use on its roster. He's going to need to settle for much less than the $13.25 million he made last year, though. Prediction: Athletics

Nos. 20-16: Rizzo, Turner, Gibson, Kershaw and Iglesias

Justin Turner Stephen Brashear/Getty Images

20. Anthony Rizzo, 1B (.228/.301/.335, 8 HR, 35 RBI)

Rizzo's prime is clearly in the rearview mirror at this point, but he still has a valuable glove at first base and a good enough bat to hit somewhere around seventh in most lineups. Betting on a fully healthy season after back-to-back years of fewer than 100 games played probably wouldn't be wise, but plenty of West Coast teams (SDP/SEA/SFG) could use another option at first. So could the Marlins, if the 35-year-old wants to play close to where he grew up (Parkland, Florida) for a team that probably isn't winning many games. Prediction: San Francisco Giants

19. Justin Turner, 1B/3B/DH (.259/.354/.383, 11 HR, 55 RBI)

Turner is 40 years young at this point, but he did have a relatively productive season in 2024, making enough plate appearances to qualify for a batting title. Ichiro Suzuki played well into his mid-40s, and Nelson Cruz had a 32-HR campaign in his age-40 season, so why not take a shot on Turner, who is still more than capable of playing either corner infield spot? He could be a great fit at Milwaukee, which has big question marks at third base, as well as both a first baseman (Rhys Hoskins) and DH (Christian Yelich) who would benefit from the occasional day off. Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers

18. Kyle Gibson, RHP (8-8, 169.2 IP, 4.24 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.0 K/9)

Nothing if not consistent, Gibson was a marginally-better-than-replacement-level innings eater for a third consecutive season, continuing to provide decent value while ticking up into his late-30s. If he doesn't get signed before spring training begins, his will be one of the first phones ringing once pitchers start developing elbow and shoulder pain in the coming month. Prediction: Minnesota Twins

17. Clayton Kershaw, LHP (2-2, 30.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 7.2 K/9)

Probably no need to make a prediction here, as everyone assumes Kershaw will remain with the Dodgers if he is returning for another season—even though they already have an overflowing stockpile of rotation options. If he does sign elsewhere, though, it would have a real "Emmitt Smith with the Arizona Cardinals" feel to it. Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

16. Jose Iglesias, IF (.337/.381/.448, 4 HR, 26 RBI, 6 SB)

Between his career-best 3.1 bWAR in 85 games played, the fact that his OMG song was the Mets anthem last season and the uncertainty at third base with Brett Baty, it is completely baffling that the Mets have not re-signed Iglesias. Would be kind of funny if the Yankees scoop him up and he plays a key role for them as they adjust to life without Juan Soto. Prediction: New York Mets

Nos. 15-11: Graveman, Verdugo, Lynn, Martinez and Rodgers

Lance Lynn Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

15. Kendall Graveman, RHP (DNP, shoulder surgery)

From 2021-23, Graveman logged 187.1 IP with a 2.74 ERA, including at least six saves in each of those seasons. It's been nearly 13 months since the shoulder surgery that cost him the entire 2024 campaign, and it's rather surprising no one has taken a flyer here yet. He should be a prime candidate for a one-year deal with a team going nowhere fast in 2024, with both the 34-year-old and that team hoping he's able to re-establish himself and become a top trade deadline candidate. Prediction: Washington Nationals

14. Alex Verdugo, OF (.233/.291/.356, 13 HR, 61 RBI)

After initially playing well, Verdugo had a .585 OPS over his final 95 regular-season games played. He still started in left field for each of the Yankees' 14 postseason games, and he hit a home run in Game 2 of the World Series. Goodness knows the Astros could use a corner outfielder. Prediction: Houston Astros

13. Lance Lynn, RHP (7-4, 117.1 IP, 3.84 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 8.4 K/9)

While Clay Holmes is trying to transition from closer to starter, there has been talk of Lynn possibly going in the opposite direction for his age-38 season. Whether he's the fifth-best starter or the third-best reliever still out there, he has a sub-4.00 ERA dating back to 2019 and has stayed mostly healthy even while eclipsing 2,000 career innings pitched. Fun fact: All five appearances Lynn has made at Petco Park in his career resulted in quality starts. And the Friars do need another arm. Prediction: San Diego Padres

12. JD Martinez, DH (.235/.320/.406, 16 HR, 69 RBI)

After a renaissance run through 2023 (33 HR, .893 OPS with the Dodgers), Martinez looked more his age last year with the Mets. He still hit at least 16 home runs for the 10th consecutive 162-game season, though, and continues to hit quite well against lefties. If they're unable to get Alex Bregman, Martinez could be the right-handed slugger the Tigers need. Prediction: Detroit Tigers

11. Brendan Rodgers, IF (.267/.314/.407, 13 HR, 54 RBI)

For a Gold Glove middle infielder, Rodgers has had a solid bat...in games played at Coors Field. Career splits of a .826 OPS at home compared to .628 on the road have undoubtedly made it difficult for the 28-year-old to find a new home. Know where he has been even better, though? He has an .887 OPS in 20 career games played at Petco Park, and the Padres have two spots in their lineup that are relatively up for grabs. Prediction: San Diego Padres

Nos. 10-6: Robertson, Moncada, Turnbull, Bader and Jansen

Kenley Jansen Kevin M. Cox/Getty Images

10. David Robertson, RHP (72.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 12.4 K/9)

Robertson will turn 40 shortly after Opening Day, but he's still delivering the goods and the holds, providing the Rangers with 34 of the latter this past season. He has been a hot potato lately, pitching for five teams over the past three seasons and delivering a 3.00 ERA or lower to four of those five. Given the still-questionable overall state of their bullpen, though, it's surprising Texas hasn't re-signed him yet. Maybe it's just been waiting for his price tag to drop. Prediction: Texas Rangers

9. Yoán Moncada, 3B (.275/.356/.400, 12 games played)

Moncada missed almost all of last season, as well as significant chunks of both 2022 and 2023, barely a shell of the excellent player he was in 2019. He's still not even 30, though, and could be primed for a bounce-back year. Can't see a team like the Cubs, Mets or Yankees taking a shot on him, even given their third base concerns. Feels like more of a spot for the Brewers, Nationals or maybe the Blue Jays to take a flyer. Prediction: Washington Nationals

8. Spencer Turnbull, RHP (3-0, 54.1 IP, 2.65 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 9.6 K/9)

Like Moncada, some serious injury risk here, as this starting pitcher hasn't logged even 60 innings in a season since 2019. For what little time the Phillies had him available in 2024, though, Turnbull was mighty effective. Could be a great buy-low option for a team with a minimal budget. Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates

7. Harrison Bader, CF (.236/.284/.373, 12 HR, 51, RBI, 17 SB)

Bader appeared in a career-best 143 games this past season with the Mets, but his overall value added was minimal enough for them to move on, trading for Jose Siri to play center instead. Not many teams out there looking for a center fielder right now, and the contenders who are looking for one are probably more likely to trade for Luis Robert Jr. than sign Bader. Still, he's one of the more intriguing position players left on the board, light years behind the big two of Bregman and Alonso, of course. Prediction: Kansas City Royals

6. Kenley Jansen, RHP (54.2 IP, 3.29 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 27 saves)

Jansen has saved at least 15 percent of his team's games played in 13 consecutive seasons, still pitching at a high level last season at 36 years old. Wherever he lands, the current fourth-place pitcher on MLB's career saves leaderboard wants assurances he'll continue to have regular access to save opportunities. At this stage in the offseason, though, it's getting difficult to find a team that both could reasonably afford the 37-year-old and doesn't already have a clear closer on its staff. Maybe Detroit makes one more $15 million-ish acquisition? Prediction: Detroit Tigers

5. Jose Quintana, LHP

Luke Hales/Getty Images

2024 Stats: 10-10, 170.1 IP, 3.75 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.1 K/9

Spotrac Market Value: 2 years, $16.6M

A lefty who has quietly posted a sub-3.50 ERA while not dishing out many Ks over the past three years, Jose Quintana is pretty much a five-years-older version of what Jordan Montgomery was last offseason—right down to the part where he played a key role in a postseason run right before hitting free agency.

For Quintana's sake, though, here's hoping the prolonged free-agency process doesn't result in a season anywhere near as disastrous as it did for Montgomery.

Quintana should only cost a fraction of what Monty did, though, and "cost a fraction" is the Cleveland Guardians' middle name.

For a team that's supposed to make the playoffs, Cleveland's starting rotation is kind of awful. FanGraphs' projections of the various SP depth charts put it at 27th-best, ahead of only the Rockies, White Sox and Athletics.

Meanwhile, in 11 career appearances at Progressive Field—most of them during his early days with the White Sox, but just go with it—Quintana has a 1.95 ERA. And at an estimated salary of a little over $8 million, adding him would bring Cleveland's estimated Opening Day tax payroll to around $124 million.

Considering the Guardians ended last season at $144 million, that should be agreeable, right?

Prediction: Cleveland Guardians

4. Andrew Heaney, LHP

Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images

2024 Stats: 5-14, 160.0 IP, 4.28 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.9 K/9

Spotrac Market Value: 2 years, $21.6M

Over the past three seasons, Andrew Heaney has logged 380 innings with a 4.00 ERA and a K/9 just a shade under 10.0. Joe Ryan (443.2 IP, 3.92 ERA, 10.0 K/9) and Charlie Morton (500.2 IP, 4.06, 10.0 K/9) put up very similar numbers, albeit with a little more durability.

Heaney's not an ace, but he could be a solid No. 2/3 starter in a lot of rotations.

And, frankly, there's not much else out there on the pitching front at this point. With Jack Flaherty finally off the board, the only pitcher who ranks higher than Heaney is one with the added complication of draft pick compensation tied to a qualifying offer.

So, who has the greatest 11th-hour need for a starting pitcher?

Probably the Atlanta Braves, right?

They lost Max Fried. They lost Morton. We still don't know when Spencer Strider will be back. And as things stand, even once Strider returns, they'll have either Ian Anderson or Grant Holmes penciled in as the fifth starter. Throw in the fact that they're banking on both Chris Sale and Reynaldo López staying reasonably healthy, and it's alarming that they have done nothing about their pitching staff this winter.

But if they swoop in for Heaney on something like a 2/$19M deal, problem solved—and without exceeding the luxury-tax threshold.

Prediction: Atlanta Braves

3. Nick Pivetta, RHP

Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images

2024 Stats: 6-12, 145.2 IP, 4.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 10.6 K/9

Spotrac Market Value: 4 years, $60.4M

It was surprising that Boston extended Nick Pivetta a qualifying offer, and even more surprising that he rejected it.

But now because of that qualifying offer, his market is a bit wonky; Boston hoping he signs elsewhere so it gets a compensatory draft pick in Competitive Balance Round B, other teams reluctant to sign him because they would need to forfeit a draft pick and possibly some international bonus pool money.

For the likes of Corbin Burnes and Max Fried, that wasn't a deterrent in the slightest. But for a soon-to-be 32-year-old with a career 4.76 ERA and nary a season in his career with a sub-4.00 ERA, giving up your second-best draft pick is a rather significant sacrifice.

None of that comes into play if he simply re-signs with the Red Sox. However, they already have a formidable six-man rotation and don't seem likely to bring him back, unless it's on something like a one-year, $12M deal to serve as a long reliever and occasional spot starter.

Because of that, Pivetta might not sign anywhere for another month, waiting to see if anyone's need for pitching becomes dire enough to forfeit the draft pick and give him a multi-year deal; settling for another year in Boston if that offer never comes.

As things stand, though, Boston makes the most sense.

Prediction: Boston Red Sox

2. Pete Alonso, 1B

Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images

2024 Stats: .240/.329/.459, 34 HR, 88 RBI

Spotrac Market Value: 6 years, $174M

It's probably worth noting at this point that Spotrac has not updated those market value estimations since the offseason got underway, and it's very much not looking like Pete Alonso is going to come anywhere close to this total dollar amount.

The $29 million AAV could still be in play, but 3/$75 million is sounding far more likely than 6/$174 million.

The "where" remains the bigger unknown, though.

Toronto has entered the chat in a big way over the past week, though recent history tells us that when the Blue Jays start getting mentioned as one of the finalists for one of the most coveted free agents, it just means we're getting close to that player finally signing with someone else.

Alonso re-signing with the Mets has always felt like the likeliest outcome, even after they signed Jesse Winker and seemed to be moving on sans Polar Bear. And until he actually lands somewhere else—or at least until the Mets actually add a 1B or 3B this offseason—it's still going to feel that way.

Prediction: New York Mets

1. Alex Bregman, 3B

Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

2024 Stats: .260/.315/.453, 26 HR, 75 RBI

Spotrac Market Value: 4 years, $120M

Houston re-signing Alex Bregman has resurfaced as a real possibility in recent weeks, but it seems to be a dead end yet again.

Detroit remains a fringe candidate, but signing Jack Flaherty probably took them out of the running here. Even suggesting earlier that they might be able to find another $15 million to sign Kenley Jansen felt like a stretch.

And with those two likely out of the running, it's probably down to three teams here: the Red Sox, the Cubs and the Blue Jays.

Toronto landing Bregman sounds even more far-fetched than Toronto landing Alonso. The Blue Jays already have 11 players signed for eight-figure salaries and an estimated tax payroll north of $260 million. At this point, adding a $30 million salary to the books would also increase their tax payment by around $20 million, while making it effectively impossible for them to re-sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Still, they keep getting mentioned, so we'll at least mention them.

However, it's probably a battle between the Cubs and Red Sox, both of whom have a tax payroll a few million below $200 million and the ability to afford way more than that.

And between the two, the fit makes more sense in Chicago.

Boston would either be moving Bregman or Rafael Devers away from third base—probably Bregman to 2B—while also creating more of a logjam keeping the likes of Marcelo Mayer, Kristian Campbell and Roman Anthony in the minors.

The Cubs also have a star prospect to keep in mind, as signing Bregman would mean keeping Matt Shaw—MLB.com's No. 19 prospect—on the back burner after a 2024 campaign in which he excelled at both Double-A and Triple-A.

They are all-in on winning right now, though, with their one year of Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly, and they would be kicking themselves later if they don't sign Bregman and Shaw's foray into the majors goes as poorly at Brett Baty's did.

Purely a hunch, but Chicago having a little more desperation/need pushes them over the top.

Prediction: Chicago Cubs

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