Connecticut's Alex Karaban Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

NCAA Tournament 2025: Stock Watch for Bubble Teams with February Approaching

Kerry Miller

While the No. 1 seed line in 2025 men's NCAA tournament bracketology has hardly changed in the past month, you better believe the bubble has been moving and shaking on a near-daily basis.

In comparing our latest projection of the tournament field from Tuesday morning to the one we published on New Year's Eve, it's like looking at a deck of cards before and after it has been shuffled.

For starters, there are quite a few teams that were on the bubble one month ago and no longer are—both those who have played their way comfortably into the projected field and others who have gone in the opposite direction. We'll begin this exercise by briefly acknowledging those teams.

However, the majority of this discussion will be focused on the teams currently within shouting distance of the cutline in each direction. And, specifically, the ones who have moved the most to get there in the past few weeks.

A few teams who are very much on the bubble at the moment but not included in this exercise are Ohio State, Texas, Indiana and Arizona State, as they were already smack dab on the bubble when the calendar year began.

Connecticut and Oklahoma falling backward to the bubble while the likes of New Mexico and Xavier ascended to it is where we're aiming today.

No Longer on the Bubble (Bad Division)

Arkansas' John Calipari Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Arkansas Razorbacks (Previously: No. 11 Seed)

We can't completely write off Arkansas just yet. The Hogs did score a great neutral victory over Michigan in nonconference play, and they could be one strong week in SEC play away from vaulting back into the at-large mix. But it was inevitable that a few SEC teams would simply suffer too many conference losses, and it's unlikely things will get any better for the 1-6 Razorbacks with Boogie Fland out for the year.

Dayton Flyers (Previously: No. 9 Seed)

The first half of January was a nightmare for the Flyers, losing consecutive games to George Washington, Massachusetts and George Mason. In what felt like the blink of an eye, they went from an excellent at-large candidate with wins over Connecticut, Marquette and Northwestern to just a really weird resume on the outside looking in. Dayton just about needs to win out to find its way back into the projected field.

LSU Tigers (Previously: Third Team Out)

As with Arkansas, a brief hot streak could change the narrative in a hurry for an LSU team that doesn't have any bad losses and ranks top-75 in just about all the metrics. But, at 1-5 so far in SEC play, it doesn't feel like that hot streak is coming. And the Tigers probably need to go at least 7-5 the rest of the way to have a realistic argument for a bid.

Penn State Nittany Lions (Previously: No. 11 Seed)

A pretty good team that has simply mastered the art of the painstaking loss, Penn State is 1-7 this season in games decided by six points or fewer. The overall tally of its last five games is 393 points scored to 396 points allowed, but all it has to show for it is a relatively meaningless home win over Rutgers and four missed opportunities against Quad 1 opponents. The Nittany Lions could be a spoiler for a bubble team or two, but they would need to turn just about all of these close losses into close wins down the stretch to make the tournament.

SMU Mustangs (Previously: No. 11 Seed)

At top 60 in all the metrics, the computers are keeping SMU on the fringe of the conversation. But in the only games they'll play this season against Duke, Louisville and North Carolina, the Mustangs lost by 27, 25 and 15, respectively, falling to 0-4 against Quad 1 for the year—while somehow only slipping six spots on KenPom in the process. There are quite a few "might be Quad 1" games left on their schedule to change that, but they've blown every opportunity for a marquee win that they will get, barring a rematch with Duke in the ACC tournament. It's hard to see them re-entering the field.

No Longer on the Bubble (Good Division)

Arizona's Caleb Love Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Arizona Wildcats (Previously: Also Considered; Currently: No. 5 Seed)

One month ago, Arizona's best win of the season was a Quad 3 neutral-site game against Davidson. The Wildcats were 6-5, likely needing to go at least 12-8 in Big 12 play to secure what looked like an unlikely bid. But they've won eight of their first nine league games, punctuated by the dramatic victory over Iowa State Monday night. At this point, they would have to completely crash and burn to fall back out of the tournament picture.

Louisville Cardinals (Previously: Fifth Team Out; Currently: No. 6 Seed)

Louisville had already shown some promise, beating both Indiana and West Virginia in the Battle 4 Atlantis before putting up decent fights in losses to Duke and Kentucky. Then again, close calls at home in December against UTEP and Eastern Kentucky made it look like the Cardinals might fall to pieces once ACC play really got underway. To the contrary, they've been a freight train, going 8-0 in January with seven of those wins by double digits. And though this is an undeniably down year for the ACC, they've done so largely against the league's upper tiers, beating UNC, Clemson, Pitt, SMU and Wake Forest during that stretch.

Missouri Tigers (Previously: First Team Out; Currently: No. 6 Seed)

Missouri was a major "What else you got?" team one month ago, boasting one phenomenal win over Kansas, but no other wins against the top two Quads. The Tigers have since stormed out to a 5-2 SEC record, including a fantastic road win over Florida, putting them likely now three, maybe four wins away from locking up a bid. Their physicality in both forcing turnovers and drawing fouls is such a permanent pain in the butt for their competition.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (Previously: No. 10 Seed; Currently: No. 5 Seed)

The predictive metrics always believed in the Red Raiders, but it truly was nauseating to have them in the projected field on New Year's Eve when they didn't have a single Quad 1 or Quad 2 win to their name. But they've been on a rampage in the Big 12, winning six of their last seven games, including four on the road. Now with three Quad 1 wins and a pair of Quad 2 victories, it's a whole lot easier to seed them close to where the predictive metrics rank them.

Stock Down: Cincinnati Bearcats

Jizzle James Chris Gardner/Getty Images

Current Resume: 12-8, NET: 48, RES: 65, QUAL: 49

Wins Since Dec. 31: vs. Arizona State, at Colorado

Losses Since Dec. 31: at BYU, at Baylor, vs. Texas Tech, vs. Arizona, vs. Kansas, at Utah

One month ago, Texas Tech and Cincinnati were kindred spirits, 19th and 20th in the NET, respectively, hoping to do enough damage in Big 12 play to make up for nonconference schedule strengths that ranked around 300th in the nation. Both were around 35th overall on our seed list at the time.

The Red Raiders have undeniably done that damage, vaulting into the top 20.

The Bearcats...have not.

Not only has Cincinnati merely added a couple of Quad 2 wins while otherwise stockpiling losses, but its previous Quad 1 win over Dayton has aged like milk, as the Flyers have dropped about 25 spots in the NET during their own freefall from the bubble.

For most bracketologists, that 28-point loss at BYU on Saturday was (at least temporarily) the final straw for Cincinnati. The Bearcats are doing nothing to improve their resume metrics, and they've plummeted about 30 spots in the predictive metrics, to boot.

They do still have a pulse, because they haven't suffered any particularly terrible losses. However, they need to turn things around, and fast.

They won't play any of Kansas, Arizona or Texas Tech again before the Big 12 tournament, but they do have road games against Iowa State and Houston still to come. And unless they're able to win one of those two massive tests, they're going to need to win just about every other game left on their schedule in order to don their dancing shoes.

Stock Up: Creighton Bluejays

Steven Ashworth and Ryan Kalkbrenner Joe Buglewicz/Getty Images

Current Resume: 14-6, NET: 39, RES: 35, QUAL: 29

Wins Since Dec. 31: at Connecticut, vs. St. John's, at Butler, at DePaul, vs. Providence, vs. Seton Hall

Losses Since Dec. 31: at Marquette

After opening Big East play with a 24-point loss to Georgetown—falling to 7-5 overall with only one win of any real value (vs. Kansas)—it sure felt like Creighton was destined to miss the Dance.

Even after the addition of a decent win over Villanova a few days before Christmas, the Bluejays were our Fourth Team Out on the morning of New Year's Eve.

They've been a completely different animal since then, fueled largely by Ryan Kalkbrenner's play in the paint.

When the big man posts an O-rating of 110 or greater—which is to say nothing of his constant impact on the defensive end of the floor—Creighton is a perfect 12-0 this season. But outside of causing major problems for Hunter Dickinson in that marquee victory over the Jayhawks, he simply wasn't himself from mid-November through mid-December, including missing one game against Notre Dame with a lower-body injury.

During their seven wins in eight games stretch, though, Kalk has averaged 19.1 points, 9.0 rebounds and 3.5 blocks.

Meanwhile, Steven Ashworth is racking up both treys and dimes, tallying at least nine assists in five of his last eight games while extending his streak of contests with at least one made three-pointer to 38.

It's more than just that duo, of course, and they never win that game at UConn without Jamiya Neal exploding for a career-high 24 points. But so long as Kalkbrenner and Ashworth stay healthy, this team seems destined to dance.

Stock Down: Connecticut Huskies

Liam McNeeley Geoff Stellfox/Getty Images

Current Resume: 14-6, NET: 36, RES: 46, QUAL: 29

Wins Since Dec. 31: at Georgetown, vs. Providence, vs. Butler

Losses Since Dec. 31: at Xavier, at Villanova, vs. Creighton

No team has been more Jekyll and Hyde than the twice reigning national champions.

UConn entered the season with all sorts of hype and boat-raced its first four never-had-a-prayer, Quad 4 opponents. The Huskies subsequently went winless in the Maui Invitational, but went on a tear after returning to the Mainland, consecutively defeating Baylor, Texas, Gonzaga and Xavier to vault back up to a projected No. 4 seed by New Year's Eve.

Sans freshman star Liam McNeeley (ankle) for the past six games, though, they've been just kind of mediocre at best, going 3-3 with neither a great win nor a bad loss.

Which makes sense. They were able to get along just fine for a few weeks without freshman star Stephon Castle last year, because there was so much other talent on that roster. This year's team is nowhere near as loaded, and with McNeeley out, opponents have been able to focus all of their energy on keeping Alex Karaban in check.

If he returns and they win at least one of the upcoming trio of at Marquette, vs. St. John's and at Creighton, the Huskies will probably be fine for a bid. But if they're going to three-peat, it's likely going to be from roughly the starting point they had in 2014, when Shabazz Napier led that No. 7 seed to a title.

Stock Up: Xavier Musketeers

Ryan Conwell and Dayvion McKnight Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Current Resume: 13-8, NET: 55, RES: 57, QUAL: 48

Wins Since Dec. 31: at Marquette, vs. Connecticut, vs. Villanova, at DePaul, vs. Seton Hall

Losses Since Dec. 31: at Georgetown, vs. St. John's, at St. John's

How about one more Big East team for good measure?

Xavier was not particularly close to the at-large conversation one month ago, and even less so three weeks ago, when the Musketeers were 10-7 overall with nothing better than a neutral-site win over South Carolina and a home victory over Wake Forest to their credit.

The predictive metrics were always promising, though. And while it wasn't the least bit tempting to put Xavier in the projected field in mid-January, it was even less tempting to remove this team from the board altogether, as it clearly had the potential to go on a run to pick up some quality wins.

Which it did.

All three of Xavier's best wins have come in its last four games, while even the loss during that stretch was an eyebrow-raiser in a good way, leading St. John's by 16 at MSG before going ice cold and letting it slip away for an overtime loss.

The Musketeers are still slightly on the outside looking in, but they've made major leaps and strides to get back into the conversation.

They've already played all their regular-season games against Connecticut, Marquette and St. John's, though, so the next six weeks will be mostly dedicated to stockpiling decent wins and avoiding questionable losses.

An 8-2 record the rest of the way would just about guarantee them a spot in the field, though, and that's feasible with their remaining schedule.

Stock Down: Drake Bulldogs

Bennett Stirtz Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Current Resume: 18-2, NET: 66, RES: 44, QUAL: 77

Wins Since Dec. 31: at Bradley, at Indiana State, at Missouri State, vs. Illinois State, vs. Valparaiso, vs. Evansville

Losses Since Dec. 31: vs. Murray State, at Illinois Chicago

Feels weird to have Drake as a "Stock Down" team when the Bulldogs are riding a six-game winning streak that has them just barely back into our projected field.

However, they are definitely in worse shape now than they were on New Year's Eve because of the two losses suffered on Jan. 1 and Jan. 5.

Prior to those consecutive missteps, Drake was one of the last four remaining unbeatens in the country, boasting a strong neutral-site victory over Vanderbilt in the Charleston Classic championship, as well as a solid road win over Kansas State. The Bulldogs had risen all the way to No. 29 on our seed list, good for the top No. 8 seed.

But any loss suffered to any Missouri Valley foe not named Bradley was liable to do some real damage to their resume, and suffering two consecutive losses in games that were nowhere close to Quad 1 results was devastating to their case for a bid.

At least they rallied for a road win over Bradley to stop the bleeding with a quality victory. That kept Drake from falling completely off the radar, and it has been able to tiptoe its way back up the seed list in the three weeks since.

However, the Missouri Valley has produced just one at-large team in the past seven NCAA tournaments combined: in 2021 when Drake started 18-0, lost four of its final 11 games and was the very last at-large team in the field.

If the Bulldogs go 9-1 for the remainder of the regular season before an Arch Madness championship game loss to Bradley, it's going to be a photo finish once again.

Stock Up: Vanderbilt Commodores

Jason Edwards Brandon Sumrall/Getty Images

Current Resume: 16-4, NET: 37, RES: 30, QUAL: 44

Wins Since Dec. 31: vs. Tennessee, vs. Kentucky, at LSU, vs. South Carolina

Losses Since Dec. 31: vs. Mississippi State, at Missouri, at Alabama

One of the biggest reasons Drake has been able to sneak its way back into the projected field is that the neutral-site win over Vanderbilt just keeps on looking more impressive as the Commodores look to solidify their own spot in the Dance.

Until two weeks ago, that was an iffy proposition at best. Vandy did win all 12 of its nonconference games not played against Drake, but those wins away from home against Nevada, Seton Hall, Virginia Tech and TCU have not amounted to much, with all four of those teams in much worse shape than expected before the season began.

As a result, Vanderbilt was our second-to-last team in on Dec. 31, and had slipped to Second Team Out in our Jan. 14 projection, after a 1-2 start to SEC play.

Colossal strides have been made since then, though, in the form of those home wins over Tennessee and Kentucky over the past two Saturdays. (The Commodores did lose at Alabama in between those marquee wins, but no harm done there whatsoever.)

Can they survive February, though?

Vanderbilt has road games against Oklahoma, Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky and Texas A&M, as well as home games against Texas, Ole Miss and Auburn over the course of the next four weeks. The only one of the bunch Vandy is supposed to win is the Texas game, and even that's almost a coin flip.

If the Commodores can take two of the eight, though, they could close out the regular season with home wins over Missouri and Arkansas and a road win over Georgia to finish at 9-9 in SEC play and would be comfortably in the field.

Stock Down: Oklahoma Sooners

Jeremiah Fears Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Current Resume: 15-5, NET: 47, RES: 29, QUAL: 45

Wins Since Dec. 31: at Arkansas, vs. South Carolina

Losses Since Dec. 31: vs. Texas, at Georgia, vs. Texas A&M, at Alabama, at Texas A&M

Like Drake, Oklahoma was 13-0 on New Year's Eve before getting out to a rough start to 2025. None of the Sooners' four consecutive losses was individually terrible—three Quad 1s and a Quad 2 that is ever so close to Quad 1—but, you know, four straight losses is never a good thing.

Also like Drake, though, wins from Oklahoma's MTE in late November just keep looking better. Both Arizona and Louisville were previously covered in the "No Longer on the Bubble (Good Division)" section, each skyrocketing into the vicinity of a No. 5 seed and making the Sooners' victories over them in the Battle 4 Atlantis look that much better.

That has kept them from slipping too close to the cutline.

However, what was a projected No. 4 seed one month ago now looks like more of a No. 9 or even a No. 10 seed.

Curiously, Oklahoma's KenPom ranking has remained about as stagnant as you'll ever see from a team that is neither top 10 nor bottom 10 in the country. The Sooners have spent the entire season in the Nos. 36-48 range, which is a classic "probably a tournament team, but not by much" sort of message. And now that the losses are starting to stack up, the resume metrics aren't providing the heavy lifting they used to.

Given the three great neutral-site victories they got in nonconference play, the Sooners are one of the SEC's teams that would likely get a bid with a 7-11 league record, which means 5-6 the rest of the way should do the trick. But with just one game each against South Carolina, Arkansas and LSU this season and two of those three already in the rear-view mirror, let's see if they can find five more Ws.

Stock Up: New Mexico Lobos

Donovan Dent Sam Wasson/Getty Images

Current Resume: 16-4, NET: 56, RES: 37, QUAL: 48

Wins Since Dec. 31: vs. San Diego State, vs. Boise State, at UNLV, vs. Nevada, at Wyoming, sweep of Fresno State

Losses Since Dec. 31: at San Jose State

In mid-December, New Mexico's resume was mighty bleak. Even after the home win over VCU on the 18th and the win at Colorado State on the 28th, the Lobos were barely top-80 in the NET with one great win over UCLA and one terrible home loss to New Mexico State.

We didn't even bother mentioning UNM in the "Also Considered" tier of our Dec. 31 projection of the field, suggesting they would have been somewhere around the 20th team out, at best.

But while the lone loss the Lobos have suffered in the past 50-plus days was a pretty bad one at SJSU, the overall outlook here is unquestionably brighter.

Not only do the previous wins over USC and VCU both look a good bit stronger than they did a month ago, but New Mexico also made some statements with the 14-point win over San Diego State and the 19-point victory over Boise State.

The Lobos do have both a Quad 3 and a Quad 4 loss weighing them down, but they are now 7-2 against the top two Quads and have a resume metrics average better than 39—which in the five tournaments since NET became the primary sorting metric, has meant a guaranteed spot in the field to everyone except 2021's first team out, Louisville.

Plenty of time for that to change in either direction, though, as New Mexico still has two games left against Utah State, as well as road rematches with San Diego State, Boise State and Nevada.

Still, the Lobos are definitely in better shape now than they were a month ago, presently in the field as our top No. 11 seed.

Stock Down: North Carolina Tar Heels

RJ Davis Peyton Williams/UNC/Getty Images

Current Resume: 13-9, NET: 40, RES: 47, QUAL: 37

Wins Since Dec. 31: at Notre Dame, at NC State, vs. SMU, vs. Cal, vs. Boston College

Losses Since Dec. 31: vs. Stanford, at Wake Forest, at Pittsburgh, at Louisville

With their season pretty well hanging in the balance, North Carolina led 63-59 with six minutes remaining at Pittsburgh Tuesday night.

Hanging on for the win would have been a crucial Quad 1 result, probably enough to get the Tar Heels just back into the projected field in advance of Saturday's massive showdown with Duke.

Instead of a win, though, they were outscored 14-2 the rest of the way, Zack Austin delivering two dagger threes and two massive blocks down the stretch as the Panthers avoided getting a "Stock Down" designation of their own.

While they don't have any horrific losses, the Tar Heels are now 1-8 in Quad 1 games and 5-9 overall against the top two Quadrants, which should be painfully familiar territory for that fanbase.

When the Heels missed the Dance two years ago, they ended up with a computer profile (NET: 46, RES: 49, QUAL: 39) almost identical to where they are today, and with a 1-9 Quad 1 record amid their 7-13 record against the top two Quadrants.

They do have three big opportunities remaining to change that narrative, with two games left against Duke and a road tilt with Clemson. But at this point, if they don't win either of those games against their loathed rivals, even winning the eight others in between those Duke contests might not be enough for a bid.

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