As January finally gives way to February later this week, the upper echelon of the projected field for the 2025 men's NCAA tournament just keeps on looking the same, doesn't it?

While teams in the Nos. 5-25 range of the AP poll seem to be in a constant state of weeks with a 1-1 record (or worse), it has been Auburn, Duke, Iowa State and a rotating second SEC team (presently Alabama, but occasionally Florida, Tennessee or Kentucky has been in the mix) on the top line for a while now.

As Duke and Auburn ride 14- and 11-game winning streaks, respectively, a national championship rematch of that Dec. 4 ACC/SEC Challenge showdown seems to be where we're headed a little over two months from now.

Plenty of time for that to change, though, and there will ultimately be 68 teams battling for those two spots in the title game. And Tuesday morning means it's time for an updated look at who those 68 teams would be today.

As a reminder, the projected champion (auto bid) of each conference is based on the current league standings. (In the cases where multiple teams are tied atop the loss column, the one with the best predictive metrics gets the projected bid.)

Using this approach, there presently are no bid thieves causing the at-large field to shrink, but there are quite a few instances where the team with the best predictive metrics isn't the team with the best league record.

(If you have any questions on what goes into the bracketology process or want to argue about a certain team's spot (or lack of a spot) in the projected field, you can find me begrudgingly on Twitter and occasionally on Bluesky.)

With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some brief commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, we have a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.

The Projected Bracket

EAST REGION (Newark)

Raleigh, NC
1. Duke vs. 16. Morehead State / Nebraska Omaha
8. Baylor vs. 9. Oklahoma

Providence, RI
4. Mississippi State vs. 13. Yale
5. Illinois vs. 12. Bradley

Milwaukee, WI
3. Michigan State vs. 14. Northern Colorado
6. Missouri vs. 11. Pittsburgh / UCF

Raleigh, NC
2. Florida vs. 15. Norfolk State
7. Maryland vs. 10. Connecticut

MIDWEST REGION (Indianapolis)

Lexington, KY
1. Alabama vs. 16. Southern
8. Gonzaga vs. 9. Creighton

Seattle, WA
4. Oregon vs. 13. Akron
5. Texas Tech vs. 12. Arkansas State

Denver, CO
3. Kansas vs. 14. Utah Valley
6. Michigan vs. 11. New Mexico

Cleveland, OH
2. Marquette vs. 15. Bryant
7. Clemson vs. 10. Texas

SOUTH REGION (Atlanta)

Lexington, KY
1. Auburn vs. 16. American / Long Island
8. Utah State vs. 9. UCLA

Seattle, WA
4. Wisconsin vs. 13. Middle Tennessee
5. Arizona vs. 12. UC Irvine

Providence, RI
3. Kentucky vs. 14. Cleveland State
6. St. John's vs. 11. Ohio State / Drake

Wichita, KS
2. Houston vs. 15. UNC Asheville
7. Ole Miss vs. 10. San Diego State

WEST REGION (San Francisco)

Milwaukee, WI
1. Iowa State vs. 16. William & Mary
8. Vanderbilt vs. 9. Saint Mary's

Denver, CO
4. Texas A&M vs. 13. Samford
5. Memphis vs. 12. McNeese

Wichita, KS
3. Purdue vs. 14. Jacksonville
6. Louisville vs. 11. VCU

Cleveland, OH
2. Tennessee vs. 15. Merrimack
7. West Virginia vs. 10. Georgia

Ranking the No. 1 Seeds

1. Auburn Tigers (18-1, NET: 1, RES: 1, QUAL: 2)

2. Duke Blue Devils (18-2, NET: 2, RES: 4, QUAL: 2)

3. Alabama Crimson Tide (17-3, NET: 7, RES: 2, QUAL: 8)

4. Iowa State Cyclones (17-3, NET: 6, RES: 5, QUAL: 5)

5. Florida Gators (18-2, NET: 5, RES: 8, QUAL: 6)

6. Tennessee Volunteers (17-3, NET: 4, RES: 6, QUAL: 5)

7. Houston Cougars (16-3, NET: 3, RES: 13, QUAL: 2)

No changes to the top six from one week ago, unless you want to count "Auburn's resume improving to the point where it feels like the Tigers are virtually locked into a No. 1 seed" as a change.

With the win over Tennessee on Saturday—in which Johni Broome returned from his ankle injury and was sensational to the tune of 16 points, 13 rebounds, four blocks and three brilliant plays in the final 30 seconds—Auburn now has a staggering 11 Quad 1 wins in 12 tries. The only other team in the country that entered play on Monday with more than six such victories was Oregon at 8-2. (Though the Ducks are held back a bit in the seeding by mediocre predictive metrics and their 1-2 record against Quad 2).

Duke got a scare at Wake Forest when the Demon Deacons opened the second half on a 23-4 run, but the Blue Devils eventually started hitting shots again and scraped out a seven-point win to remain the No. 2 overall seed.

Alabama's resume just keeps looking better, now up to 12-3 against Quads 1 and 2 with nary a loss outside of Quad 1. Had they not wilted down the stretch against Oregon in the Players Era Festival championship game back in late November, they would be neck-and-neck with Auburn for No. 1 overall. As is, the Tider are solidly on the top line, patiently waiting for their first crack at the Tigers on Feb. 15.

Iowa State was in a real battle with Arizona State on Saturday, trailing by one with a little over five minutes remaining. But the Cyclones ignited from there, closing the game on a 19-3 run for a win that looks mighty convincing to the metrics. And in spite of the subsequent dramatic OT loss at Arizona on Monday night, they remain a No. 1 seed, as their stockpile of high-end wins (vs. Marquette, vs. Kansas, at Texas Tech) is more impressive than Florida's lone marquee win over Tennessee.

The Gators are close, though, and Tennessee isn't far behind them, despite the Vols' narrow loss at Auburn. That rematch in Tennessee on Saturday could be a battle for a No. 1 seed—especially if Tennessee also wins the home game against Kentucky on Tuesday night.

The only change to the top seven is Houston entering the conversation, but we'll have more to say about the Cougars in the Big 12 summary.

10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams

Fifth-to-Last In: Georgia Bulldogs (14-6, NET: 35, RES: 37, QUAL: 40)—Four consecutive losses have Georgia sliding back to the bubble.

Fourth-to-Last In: Pittsburgh Panthers (13-6, NET: 34, RES: 42, QUAL: 38)—Massive bubble week on tap: vs. UNC, at Wake Forest.

Third-to-Last In: UCF Knights (13-6, NET: 65, RES: 31, QUAL: 62)—Benefitting from earlier wins over Texas A&M and Texas Tech.

Second-to-Last In: Ohio State Buckeyes (12-8, NET: 29, RES: 48, QUAL: 35)—Back in the projected field following gargantuan win at Purdue.

Last Team In: Drake Bulldogs (18-2, NET: 66, RES: 44, QUAL: 78)—That November win over Vanderbilt just keeps on looking better.

****CUT LINE****

First Team Out: Wake Forest Demon Deacons (15-5, NET: 71, RES: 39, QUAL: 71)—Right on the cusp after splitting with UNC and Duke.

Second Team Out: Indiana Hoosiers (14-7, NET: 68, RES: 44, QUAL: 63)—Another two-loss week reignites the Mike Woodson Pink Slip Watch.

Third Team Out: North Carolina Tar Heels (13-8, NET: 40, RES: 47, QUAL: 37)—Avoided outright disaster vs. Boston College, but still drops out.

Fourth Team Out: Xavier Musketeers (13-8, NET: 55, RES: 58, QUAL: 48)—Vaulted into the conversation with wins over Marquette and Connecticut.

Fifth Team Out: Arizona State Sun Devils (11-8, NET: 59, RES: 46, QUAL: 61)—Another eight-loss team with two strong wins and solid metrics.

ACC Summary

4 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 2. Duke, 22. Louisville, 26. Clemson, 42. Pittsburgh

Also Considered: Wake Forest, North Carolina, SMU, Stanford

Biggest Change: List of bubble teams continues to grow

In last week's projection, North Carolina had slipped to a No. 10 seed, while both Wake Forest and SMU were among our first five out. And in the past seven days, each of those teams went 1-1 to more or less keep the status quo.

It was almost a horrific week for North Carolina, losing a tight one at Wake Forest before needing overtime to survive at home against Boston College. The eight-loss Tar Heels do slip out of the projected field for now, but they're still right there in the conversation.

The Demon Deacons splitting their homestand against North Carolina and Duke was enough to keep them right at the cut line, too.

And though we're still waiting on SMU to actually get a quality win, the Mustangs are top 60 in all the metrics, forcing us to keep them under consideration.

But let's talk about Stanford for a minute.

The home loss to Cal Poly on Nov. 30 was very much no bueno; a Quad 4 mishap amid a mighty weak nonconference slate. The Cardinal did pick up a solid road win over Santa Clara, but suffering back-to-back-to-back losses by double digits to Oregon, Clemson and Pittsburgh at the turn of the new year sure looked like a sign of a team that was going to be a complete non-factor.

Since then, however, Stanford has won five of six, including a road win over North Carolina. This team is now 14-6 overall with a pair of Quad 1 wins, a 4-5 record against the top two Quads and just that one bad loss from two months ago.

Their metrics (NET: 69, RES: 58, QUAL: 75) aren't great, but they sure are better than they were three weeks ago.

The Cardinal will host Syracuse on Wednesday before a game at SMU on Saturday. The latter one may well be a de facto elimination game.

Big 12 Summary

8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 4. Iowa State, 7. Houston, 12. Kansas, 18. Arizona, 20. Texas Tech, 27. West Virginia, 30. Baylor, 43. UCF

Also Considered: Arizona State, BYU, Cincinnati

Biggest Change: Houston finally gets a marquee win

There was never any doubt that the Houston Cougars are quite good. They've spent the entire season rated in the top five on KenPom, routinely draining the life out of their competition on the defensive end of the floor, allowing 49.3 points on average through their first 15 wins.

For bracketology purposes, though, Houston had been quite the conundrum—clearly talented enough to be in the No. 1 seed conversation, but with a resume devoid of marquee wins that looked much more like the work of a bubble team. In fact, had they lost that 69-68 game at UCF two weekends ago, it could have been grounds for dropping the Cougars to something like a No. 9 seed.

They didn't, though. And they followed up that nail-biter with a laughable 70-36 victory over Utah to reassert their dominance in advance of the colossal road game against Kansas.

Without question, Houston should have lost that double-overtime affair. Kansas led by six with about a minute remaining in regulation and was again up by six (with Dajuan Harris on his way to the free-throw line) with less than 20 seconds to go in overtime. That's a win for the team in the lead roughly 101 times out of 100.

The Jayhawks completely collapsed, though. Twice. And Houston got the resume win it needed in order to make a big leap up the seed list.

No longer is it a game of "not yet...not yet..." with Houston while working through the seed list, struggling with the great big zero in the Quad 1 wins department. The Cougars are now firmly up to a No. 2 seed and could storm their way up to the top line if they get two more Quad 1 wins this week at West Virginia and vs. Texas Tech.

Oh, also? BYU has gotten a lot more interesting on the bubble after blowing out both Colorado (road) and Cincinnati (home) in the past week. The Cougars are going to need a quality win or two at some point, but ask and you shall receive. Nine of their remaining 12 games are Quad 1 opportunities.

Big East Summary

4 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 8. Marquette, 21. St. John's, 34. Creighton, 38. Connecticut

Also Considered: Xavier

Biggest Change: Connecticut loses for a third consecutive week

The twice-reigning national champions are quite clearly not the same team without their freshman star, Liam McNeeley.

He has missed the past six games with a high-ankle sprain, all of which have been a struggle for Connecticut, going 3-3 with all three wins coming by a narrow margin over teams (Providence, Georgetown and Butler) that aren't anywhere close to the at-large conversation today.

None of the three losses was terrible, least of all the one at Xavier on Saturday, which has catapulted into the at-large mix in a hurry. Nevertheless, Connecticut's resume seems to be growing bubblier by the day, now saddled with six losses and a resume metrics average on par with those of North Carolina and Ohio State.

But if McNeeley returns in time for the upcoming brutal three-game stretch—at Marquette, vs. St. John's, at Creighton—and helps guide the Huskies to a pair of Quad 1 wins, will the selection committee be willing to kind of disregard their mediocre play while he was out?

We always want the committee to consider injuries, but there end up being so many at a nationwide level by the end of the season that putting asterisks on losses suffered while short-handed would darn near result in more games with asterisks than without them. In the end, the resume usually just kind of is what it is, injuries be damned.

Given the spotlight that Connecticut has commanded for years, though, this could be an exception to that rule, similar to when 2018-19 Duke lost three games late in the season sans Zion Williamson, but got the No. 1 overall seed anyway when he looked healthy in the ACC tournament. (Not that McNeeley is anywhere near the force of nature that Williamson was.)

However, for now, Connecticut is sliding toward the bubble in advance of a make-or-break stretch on its calendar.

Big Ten Summary

9 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 9. Michigan State, 10. Purdue, 14. Oregon, 16. Wisconsin, 17. Illinois, 23. Michigan, 28. Maryland, 35. UCLA, 44. Ohio State

Also Considered: Indiana, Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa, USC, Penn State

Biggest Change: Entire top tier drops a game...except for Michigan State

One week ago, there was virtually no separation among the Big Ten's upper sextet of Purdue, Oregon, Michigan State, Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin. The Boilermakers had ascended to the cream of the crop after their road win over the Ducks, but all six landed in the Nos. 11-18 range on our seed list, just a jumbled mess of No. 4 seed type resumes.

It was a week of carnage for that top tier, though.

On Tuesday, Purdue blew a 16-point lead in its home loss to Ohio State, followed a couple hours later by Wisconsin losing a close one at UCLA. Illinois got smoked at home by Maryland on Thursday. The following night, Michigan lost by 27 at Purdue. And least forgivable of all, Oregon suffered a loss at Minnesota on Saturday afternoon.

Purdue pretty much broke even for the week, but none of those resumes looks better today than it did a week ago.

None of them except for Michigan State's, that is.

Sparty played one game this week, beating Rutgers at Madison Square Garden.

Might have been a different story if Dylan Harper hadn't been limited to 13 minutes off the bench after suffering a knee injury late in the Scarlet Knights' previous game against Penn State. A win is a win, though, and Michigan State has a dozen wins in a row, sitting at a perfect 8-0 in Big Ten play.

With 10 presently Quad 1 games among the final 11 on their schedule, it is extremely unlikely they'll actually run the table. But at 17-2 overall with four Quad 1 wins, four Quad 2 wins and nothing close to a bad loss on the ledger, they've pretty well earned the right to be the Big Ten's highest-seeded team for now.

At the other end of the spectrum, both Indiana and Nebraska were among our last four in last week, but each went 0-2 this week to drop out of the projected field. Though one of those spots was seized by Ohio State, so a bit of Big Ten give and take there.

SEC Summary

13 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Auburn, 3. Alabama, 5. Florida, 6. Tennessee, 11. Kentucky, 13. Texas A&M, 15. Mississippi State, 24. Missouri, 25. Ole Miss, 29. Vanderbilt, 36. Oklahoma, 37. Texas, 40. Georgia

Also Considered: N/A

Biggest Change: Welcome back, Longhorns

Texas did a whole lot of nothing in nonconference play, which will be the Longhorns' undoing if it ends up being a photo finish for them.

Both the road win over NC State and the neutral site victory over Syracuse were supposed to be more valuable than they ended up being—both of those ACC teams have dropped roughly 50 spots on KenPom from where they opened the season—but they got nothing close to a Quad 1 nonconference win.

Their NET NCSOS rank is 285th. KenPom was far less impressed, putting them at 352nd.

As such, the Longhorns probably need to go at least 9-11 in SEC play, if not 10-10 in order to secure a bid, which wasn't looking promising after their 1-4 start.

They rallied in a big way this week, though, winning what was a hideous rock fight against Missouri on Tuesday before unbelievably rallying from a 22-point second-half deficit for a one-point victory over Texas A&M on Saturday.

They had neither veterans Arthur Kaluma nor Chendall Weaver for the game against the Aggies, but freshman Tre Johnson put the team on his back with a 30 piece, 24 of those coming in the second half.

For now, they're back in the projected field, in possession of three Quad 1 victories.

A road win over either Ole Miss or LSU in the upcoming week would be clutch. Even though the Tigers are quite unlikely to dance at this point, that's still a Quad 1 opportunity, and any road win in this conference is golden.

Good luck with that game at Ole Miss, though. The Rebels are reeling from three consecutive losses and feel much more like a wounded animal that is ready to strike than one that is ready to be put out of its misery. They're going to make life as miserable as they possibly can for Texas' backcourt.

Mid-Majors Summary (AAC, A-10, MVC, MWC, WCC)

9 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 19. Memphis, 31. Utah State, 32. Gonzaga, 33. Saint Mary's, 39. San Diego State, 41. New Mexico, 45. Drake, 46. VCU, 48. Bradley

Also Considered: Dayton, North Texas, Santa Clara, George Mason

Biggest Change: Everybody held serve

Last week, the mid-majors update was a depressing one. Memphis, Gonzaga, Utah State, San Diego State, New Mexico and Dayton each suffered at least one loss, leaving us to feel like only two or three of the 37 at-large spots would end up going to teams from outside the five major conferences.

What a drastically different story this week, though.

Those six teams mentioned above combined with Saint Mary's, Bradley, Drake, George Mason and VCU to go a perfect 19-0 in the past seven days. Fringe at-large contender North Texas also had a big week, remaining in the conversation with home wins over Temple and Florida Atlantic.

Obviously, this can't always be the case, and there are two guaranteed losses coming up on Saturday when Saint Mary's hosts Gonzaga and New Mexico plays at Utah State. But in a week devoid of surefire cannibalism, the mid-majors did exactly what they needed to do.

Well, not all of them. Boise State, San Francisco, Santa Clara and Washington State were all somewhere in that "first 20 out" range one week ago, only to go a collective 2-5—one head-to-head loss in which Santa Clara pummeled Washington State, and a pair of losses to Saint Mary's.

For everyone who was already in reasonably good shape, though, good job, good effort, including six road wins on Saturday alone.

Other 21 Leagues Summary

21 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 47. UC Irvine, 49. McNeese, 50. Arkansas State, 51. Samford, 52. Yale, 53. Akron, 54. Middle Tennessee, 55. Utah Valley, 56. Northern Colorado, 57. Jacksonville, 58. Cleveland State, 59. UNC Asheville, 60. Norfolk State, 61. Merrimack, 62. Bryant, 63. Southern, 64. William & Mary, 65. Nebraska Omaha, 66. Morehead State, 67. American, 68. Long Island

Also Considered: N/A

Biggest Change: UC Irvine's at-large dream dies in darkness

OK, yes, "dies" is a bit harsh. There's still a remote chance the 18-3 Anteaters secure an at-large bid.

After Thursday's overtime loss at UC Riverside, though, that chance pretty well consists of winning every game left on the regular-season schedule before losing to UC San Diego in the Big West championship game. Anything short of that and the resume that looks good enough for now (NET: 50, RES: 41, QUAL: 75) would take a pretty big hit.

Are we sure UCI lost that game, though? The ESPN+ feed cut out with six seconds remaining in overtime and never came back, which was mighty disorienting if you, like me, live on the East Coast and were already half asleep in bed after midnight, trying to watch the end of that one.

But, yes, it was in fact an Anteaters loss, and their second Quad 3 misstep of the season.

They do have a 4-1 record against the top two Quads, putting them on a mighty short list of teams with at least an .800 winning percentage in at least five games played. The other five members of that club are Auburn, Alabama, Iowa State, Florida and Michigan State, all of whom are in the top nine of our overall seed list.

None of UCI's wins was all that great, though, and they'll be fortunate if the road win over UC San Diego is still a Quad 1 result by Selection Sunday.

And it's "Anteaters or Bust" if you're looking for an at-large candidate here. UCSD, Arkansas State, Samford, McNeese and Liberty all have respectable resume metrics, but they each already have a Quad 3 or Quad 4 loss and nowhere near enough quality wins (nor quality opportunities remaining) to play their way into the conversation.

In other news, we are down to just seven teams in this tier of 21 leagues chasing perfection in conference play. Bryant (America East), Yale (Ivy), Akron (MAC), McNeese (Southland), Southern (SWAC), Nebraska-Omaha (Summit) and Utah Valley (WAC) are the last teams standing in that department. (With Duke, Houston, Michigan State, Auburn and Saint Mary's still undefeated in the bigger conferences.)

By no small margin, McNeese is the one of the seven most likely to get it done. Following Monday's win at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, KenPom gives the Cowboys about a 26 percent chance of going 10-0 the rest of the way.