As conference play in men's college basketball continues to heat up, so, too, are the seats of several head coaches of teams that simply are not as good as they expected/used to be.

Last year's coaching carousel was nothing short of bonkers, with 15 of the 79 (19 percent) major-conference schools entering this season with a new head coach.

Granted, not all of those were firings. Former BYU coach Mark Pope took the Kentucky job, which John Calipari shockingly left. West Virginia replaced its interim coach after canning Bob Huggins the previous summer. Virginia's Tony Bennett abruptly retired in mid-October.

But there were plenty of Kenny Payne and Juwan Howard situations where the hot seat claimed a victim.

So, as most of us shiver our way through another January, which major-conference coaches are starting to sweat from the inferno burning under their rumps?

After a slew of 'honorable' mentions, the eight likeliest-to-be-fired coaches are presented in alphabetical order by last name.

'Honorable' Mentions

John Calipari, Arkansas—We're putting him on the list because we know you'll yell if we don't, given how disappointing the Razorbacks have been. But, no, there's no chance in hell Arkansas is going to fire Calipari one year after swiping him away from Kentucky in one of the biggest non-retirement coaching changes in the history of the sport. The only way there would be a change here is if the soon-to-be 66-year-old decides he's ready to join Jay Wright as a studio analyst.

Earl Grant, Boston College—BC won 20 games last season for the first time in more than a decade, but it still hasn't been to the NCAA tournament since 2009. And in Year No. 4 under Grant, the Eagles have been a trainwreck, rated outside the top 200 on KenPom. Do they care enough to make a change, though, after keeping Jim Christian for seven years with a .371 winning percentage?

Fran McCaffery, Iowa—The Hawkeyes made the NCAA tournament in each of 2021, 2022 and 2023 and probably wouldn't fire their coach of 15 years if they miss the dance for a second successive year. With nary a Sweet 16 appearance in his career, though, maybe this is as good a time as any to move on from the 'up-tempo offense, disinterested defense' approach that clearly isn't built for success in March.

Matt McMahon, LSU—The record probably won't reflect it by the time LSU is done slogging through SEC play, but the Tigers are playing better in their third year under Matt McMahon. Not likely they make a change, even if they go from 9-9 in SEC play last year to something like a 2-16 record this year.

Penny Hardaway, Memphis—The Tigers technically aren't a major-conference program, and they surely wouldn't be firing Hardaway if the season ended today with them projected for somewhere around a No. 5 seed. After last year's second-half collapse, though, a similar meltdown could be the end of the road.

Ben Johnson, Minnesota—Recent upsets of Michigan, Iowa and Oregon have probably placated any vultures that were starting to circle. However, in Johnson's fourth season, the Gophers remain nowhere close to dancing, likely headed for their fifth losing record in the past six years. Still, he probably gets one last chance to turn things around next season.

Shaheen Holloway, Seton Hall—Most coaches get at least four years before they're in danger of the pink slip, especially coaches of programs where they were a star player decades ago. But Holloway's third season leading the Pirates has been a disaster, darn near dead last on KenPom among major-conference teams.

Adrian Autry, Syracuse—Not only was Autry, like Holloway, a former star where he is currently coaching, but he was the former legendary coach's right-hand man for a long time, serving at Jim Boeheim's assistant / associate head coach for more than a decade. It's also only his second season at the helm. But there is a whole lot of discontentment about the current, woebegone state of Syracuse hoops.

Craig Smith, Utah—The Utes went 39-30 over their final two years in the Pac-12 and are projected to finish right around .500 this season, so at least they aren't terrible. This is their fourth season with Smith, though, and not only are they still seeking their first dance in nearly a decade, but they have looked hopelessly outclassed against the top half of the Big 12. Their first four league losses to Houston, Iowa State, Baylor (twice) and Texas Tech were by a combined margin of 125 points.

Ron Sanchez, Virginia—He's technically the interim head coach after Tony Bennett's October departure, so it wouldn't really be a firing if Virginia does make a change. But, man, the Cavaliers sure are bad this year.

Hubert Davis, North Carolina

Of the eight coaches getting stand-alone sections, Hubert Davis is perhaps the least likely to actually get canned. After all, North Carolina was a No. 1 seed just last season and made a remarkable run to the 2022 national championship game as a No. 8 seed in Davis' first year on the job.

If the Tar Heels miss the NCAA tournament for what would be the second time in three years, though, there are going to be some difficult conversations, both internally and externally, about the state of this program.

And if the tournament started today, they most likely would not be in the field.

North Carolina is presently 13-8, and it seems like every game it plays comes right down to the wire, often with the Heels digging themselves a big hole in the first half before clawing their way out of it. Wins over Dayton, UCLA, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame and NC State were decided by three points or fewer—plus the embarrassing six-point overtime win against Boston College on Saturday. Losses to Wake Forest, Stanford, Michigan State and Kansas were also nail-biters decided by a single bucket.

A few more close wins in the next two weeks would be huge, as they'll go at Pitt, at Duke, vs. Pitt and at Clemson in their next four games.

That's a stretch that easily could drop them to 13-12 overall and hopelessly out of the at-large conversation. Win at least three of the four, however, and the Tar Heels would be comfortably in the projected field with a month remaining until Selection Sunday.

Johnny Dawkins, UCF

Throughout his career, Johnny Dawkins has been the master of coaching just well enough to keep his job.

In eight years at Stanford, Dawkins had an overall winning percentage of .576, but he made the NCAA tournament only once, earning a No. 10 seed and crashing the Sweet 16 in his sixth year on the job.

Now in his ninth year at UCF, he has an even better winning percentage (.596), his lone losing season coming via an 11-12 record in the truncated 2020-21 campaign. But, again, only one trip to the NCAA tournament to show for it, earning a No. 9 seed back in 2019.

The Knights pulled off a few solid upsets last season, going 17-16 overall in their first year in the Big 12. And it's looking like more of the same this year, already in possession of big wins over Texas Tech and Texas A&M and on track for a slightly winning record that would be questionable at best for the NCAA tournament.

If they do wind up once again in that 18-14 type of record range and slightly outside both the tournament picture and the KenPom top 50 for a sixth consecutive year, maybe they decide it's time to move on—even though "frequently top 75 on KenPom" was a pipe dream for this program for literally decades prior to Dawkins' arrival.

Now that they're in a major conference, perhaps they can lure in a bigger name. UCF could be a great landing spot for Will Wade, unless a bigger program already has its sights set on the former LSU and current McNeese coach.

Bobby Hurley, Arizona State

Bobby Hurley has made the NCAA tournament three times with Arizona State, all three times only barely sneaking into a play-in game. The Sun Devils were exactly the second-to-last at-large team in the field in each of 2018, 2019 and 2023, a No. 11 seed in all three years with nary a trip to the second round to show for it.

Now that Hurley has been in the desert for 10 years, is that enough?

Is this program any better off than it was when it hired him?

The Sun Devils canned Herb Sendek a decade ago with a .537 winning percentage and two NCAA tournament appearances in nine years, and at least he had one pretty good year peppered in there (2009) with some kid named James Harden running the offense.

At a .544 winning percentage and no seasons finished better than 49th on KenPom, Arizona State has merely kept the status quo in its decade under Hurley.

This relationship reasonably could have ended after last season, when Arizona State was darn near the worst team in what was a terrible final year for the Pac-12. However, the Sun Devils kept Hurley and ended up getting two late, massive commitments from Jayden Quaintance and Joson Sanon ahead of what might be a do-or-die year for the head coach.

As has so often been the case under Hurley, they are smack dab on the bubble, likely needing to go at least 6-6 the rest of the way to have any hope for a bid.

Perhaps one more play-in game for old time's sake?

With the winner getting to face Dan Hurley in a 6/11 first-round showdown?

Who says no? (Aside from the referees.)

Thad Matta, Butler

There is a deep-rooted connection between Thad Matta and Butler.

He played there in the late 1980s. He was an assistant there for a good chunk of the 1990s. And before taking the Xavier job, he spent one season as the head coach there (2000-01), leading the Bulldogs to their first NCAA tournament victory in nearly four decades.

Given that history, they might be reluctant to throw in the towel after just three seasons.

Having said that, when they managed to bring their prodigal son back home, they were expecting better than a 41-44 record through his first 85 games, not especially closer to the NCAA tournament conversation than they were in their final two years of sub-.500 hoops under LaVall Jordan.

Butler has at least had some impressive wins under Matta. And aside from the home loss to Georgetown toward the end of his first season back and the WTF home loss to Austin Peay earlier this season, they've mostly avoided bad losses.

Here's the long and short of it, though: Butler has gone 17-42 against KenPom top-100 opponents over the past three seasons—barely a top-100 team in its own right.

If the Bulldogs rally to some extent the rest of the way, Matta probably gets to keep his job. But after losing 10 of their last 12 games, losing 10 of the next 12 and ending up without a single Big East win over anyone better than Seton Hall and DePaul may well be grounds for termination.

Porter Moser, Oklahoma

Is there a way Oklahoma could keep Porter Moser for nonconference games and just bring someone else in for league play?

Over the past four years, Moser has gone 46-8 in nonconference play...but 23-41 against conference foes.

In Moser's first year at the helm, Oklahoma started out 11-2 before losing 12 of its next 15 games, finishing 18-15 and settling for a No. 1 seed in the NIT.

After starting out 13-1 last year, the Sooners went 7-11 the rest of the way, missing the dance as the first team out, albeit thanks to an inordinate number of bid thieves in conference tournaments.

And after a 13-0 start to this season, they seem to be on a similar path, struggling to tread water in the meat grinder that is the 2024-25 SEC.

Moser made it to both the 2018 Final Four and the 2021 Sweet 16 with Loyola-Chicago, but he has yet to get Oklahoma into the field, this despite ending each of the past three seasons (and currently situated) in the KenPom top 55.

Close but no cigar has been the moral of the story here, and fumbling away a 13-0 start would perhaps need to be the final nail in the coffin.

Kyle Neptune, Villanova

When a player from a major conference team leads the nation in scoring average, that team is typically at least tournament-bound, if not a serious threat to win it all.

Zach Edey fit the bill last year for No. 1 seed Purdue. When Markus Howard led the way in 2019-20, Marquette was projected for a single-digit seed when the world ended. In 2017-18, Trae Young led Oklahoma to a No. 10 seed. And back in 2013-14, Doug McDermott and Creighton were a No. 3 seed.

Even with Eric Dixon leading the nation in scoring by a margin of nearly three points per game, though, Villanova is 12-9 overall with no Quad 1 wins, two Quad 3 losses, a Quad 4 mishap and just about no hope for an at-large bid.

And it's not like Kyle Neptune came into the season with a heaping pile of job security.

Jay Wright's replacement had been almost perfectly mediocre, going 35-33 overall and 20-20 in Big East play in his first two years, with the 0-3 record in last year's Philadelphia Big 6 games loudly calling into question whether he's the right man for the job.

After a home loss to Columbia three days into this season, there were people calling for Neptune's head. Those calls only grew louder with the subsequent losses to Saint Joseph's and Virginia.

For a hot minute, Villanova woke up, winning eight of nine games, including home victories over Connecticut and Cincinnati, a road win over Butler and a close loss at Creighton.

Turns out that was just the eye of the storm, though. The Wildcats have since lost four of five, including a home loss to Georgetown.

Barring another turn of fate in which they go 8-2 the rest of the way, it's going to be tough to justify bringing Neptune back for another year.

Mike Woodson, Indiana

It's Year 4 of the Mike Woodson experiment at Indiana, and at most schools, he would be passing his test with flying colors.

He led the Hoosiers to the NCAA tournament in each of his first two seasons.

Though they weren't close to dancing last year, they did finish a respectable 19-14 overall thanks to a late-season flourish.

They are smack dab on the bubble this year.

But this isn't UCF or Arizona State that we're talking about here.

This is Indiana, where they ran Tom Crean out of town after a six-year stretch in which he led them to four tournaments and three Sweet 16s, one of those as a No. 1 seed.

This is a program that expects—nay, demands—greatness, even though it hasn't been great in many moons.

And in games when things haven't gone well for the Hoosiers this season under Woodson, it has been a full-blown, egg-on-face level of embarrassment time and again.

Bob Knight won his first 18 games against Northwestern, going 50-3 against the Wildcats in his career. Woodson is now 0-5 against them after last week's loss. And this year's nine-point L at the hands of NW was the least hideous of Indiana's six losses on the season, falling by 16 to Gonzaga, 17 at Nebraska, 25 to both Iowa and Illinois and by 28 against Louisville.

Allowing this proud program to repeatedly get laughed out of the gym has put Woodson on arguably the hottest seat in the country. If the Hoosiers don't make the tournament, it would legitimately be shocking if they don't make a coaching change.

Mike Young, Virginia Tech

In each of the past two seasons, Virginia Tech went 19-15 overall, spending at least some time in the at-large conversation before ultimately missing the cut.

Had the Hokies been that type of team again this year, Young likely would have avoided serious consideration for this list, seeing as how he finished .500 or better in each of the past five seasons, making the NCAA tournament in both 2021 and 2022.

They are the furthest thing from a bubble team this year, though, presently 8-12 overall and ranked 178th on KenPom.

While the Hokies are not quite as woefully rated as Boston College or Miami, that's little consolation for how far they have fallen. (And they did need a late miracle to survive by one at home against the Hurricanes earlier this month.)

The 10-point home loss to Jacksonville in November was Virginia Tech's first nonconference loss to a team outside the KenPom top 150 since the infamous 2015-16 season opener against Alabama State.

At least that previous VT team rallied from that low point, though, winning 20 games and earning a trip to the NIT.

For this year's team, that embarrassing loss was merely the beginning of the end, now 2-12 against the KenPom top 180, and actually projected to lose the back-to-back road games against Boston College and Miami next month.

If the Hokies do move on from Young at the end of the season (or sooner), don't be surprised if they go back to the SoCon well to find their next coach. They plucked Young from Wofford when Buzz Williams up and left in 2019, and Samford's Bucky McMillan figures to be a very popular name in the upcoming offseason's trip around the coaching carousel.