No Johni Broome? No problem thus far for the 2025 men's NCAA tournament's projected No. 1 overall seed, as Auburn went 2-0 while its star big man recovers from his ankle injury.

That was no small feat this week with seemingly every team with legitimate Final Four aspirations suffering at least one loss in the past seven days, which helped the Tigers' grip on a No. 1 seed grow that much tighter.

Joining Auburn on the projected No. 1 seed line with less than seven weeks remaining in the regular season are Duke, Alabama and Iowa State.

As a reminder, the projected champion (auto bid) of each conference is based on the current league standings. (In the cases where multiple teams are tied atop the loss column, the one with the best predictive metrics gets the projected bid.) Using this approach, there presently are no bid thieves causing the at-large field to shrink, but there are quite a few instances where the team with the best predictive metrics isn't the team with the best league record.

(If you have any questions on what goes into the bracketology process or want to argue about a certain team's spot (or lack of a spot) in the projected field, you can find me begrudgingly on Twitter and occasionally on Bluesky.)

With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some brief commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, we have a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.

The Projected Bracket

EAST REGION (Newark)

Raleigh, NC
1. Duke vs. 16. Howard / LIU
8. Utah State vs. 9. Georgia

Providence, RI
4. Wisconsin vs. 13. Yale
5. Texas A&M vs. 12. McNeese

Denver, CO
3. Houston vs. 14. Charleston
6. Louisville vs. 11. UC Irvine

Raleigh, NC
2. Florida vs. 15. Quinnipiac
7. Connecticut vs. 10. Vanderbilt

MIDWEST REGION (Indianapolis)

Lexington, KY
1. Alabama vs. 16. Colgate / Morehead State
8. Creighton vs. 9. UCLA

Seattle, WA
4. Oregon vs. 13. Akron
5. West Virginia vs. 12. George Mason

Wichita, KS
3. Marquette vs. 14. South Alabama
6. Memphis vs. 11. Indiana / Pittsburgh

Cleveland, OH
2. Kentucky vs. 15. UNC Asheville
7. Clemson vs. 10. San Diego State

SOUTH REGION (Atlanta)

Lexington, KY
1. Auburn vs. 16. Nebraska Omaha
8. Baylor vs. 9. Maryland

Seattle, WA
4. Illinois vs. 13. Middle Tennessee
5. Ole Miss vs. 12. Lipscomb

Milwaukee, WI
3. Purdue vs. 14. Northern Colorado
6. St. John's vs. 11. Nebraska / UCF

Wichita, KS
2. Kansas vs. 15. Utah Valley
7. Missouri vs. 10. Saint Mary's

WEST REGION (San Francisco)

Milwaukee, WI
1. Iowa State vs. 16. Southern
8. Gonzaga vs. 9. Oklahoma

Denver, CO
4. Mississippi State vs. 13. Samford
5. Michigan vs. 12. Bradley

Providence, RI
3. Michigan State vs. 14. Cleveland State
6. Texas Tech vs. 11. New Mexico

Cleveland, OH
2. Tennessee vs. 15. Bryant
7. Arizona vs. 10. North Carolina

Ranking the No. 1 Seeds

1. Auburn Tigers (17-1, NET: 1, RES: 1, QUAL: 2)

2. Duke Blue Devils (16-2, NET: 2, RES: 5, QUAL: 2)

3. Alabama Crimson Tide (15-3, NET: 7, RES: 2, RES: 7)

4. Iowa State Cyclones (15-2, NET: 6, RES: 7, QUAL: 5)

5. Florida Gators (16-2, NET: 5, RES: 11, QUAL: 7)

6. Tennessee Volunteers (16-2, NET: 4, RES: 7, QUAL: 6)

7. Kentucky Wildcats (14-4, NET: 11, RES: 12, QUAL: 18)

Of the teams that were top-21 in our overall seed list one week ago, 17 suffered at least one loss. But two of the four exceptions to that rule are the now virtually indisputable No. 1 and No. 2 overall seeds, Auburn and Duke.

Despite playing without Johni Broome, Auburn pounded Mississippi State by 22 before eking out a two-point road win over Georgia. The Tigers now have a slightly ridiculous 10 Quad 1 wins, light-years ahead of Duke's 4-2 record against that group to more than make up for the head-to-head result between those two teams from earlier this year at Cameron Indoor.

The Blue Devils continued their rampage through the hapless ACC, beating Miami by 35 and Boston College by 25. They are now 8-0 in league play with an average scoring margin of 22.8 points. They really should go 20-0, KenPom giving them at least a 73 percent chance of winning each game left on their schedule. However, they're going to need Auburn to suffer several more losses in order to have a resume worthy of overtaking the Tigers for the top spot.

After that dynamic duo, Alabama is the somewhat clear choice for No. 3 overall, now in possession of five Quad 1A wins and 10 total wins against the top two Quads after the road win over Kentucky on Saturday. Only Auburn has Alabama matched or bettered in either of those departments, and we've reached the point where the two "Iron Bowl" showdowns on Feb. 15 and March 8 might be the two biggest games left on the regular-season schedule.

Bit of a tough call for No. 4 overall after all of Iowa State, Tennessee, Marquette, Kentucky and Oregon bit the dust on Saturday. Thanks to the prior win over Kansas, though, the Cyclones entered the weekend with the best resume of that bunch, and their loss at West Virginia was probably the most forgivable.

As such, Iowa State maintains its grip on a No. 1 seed, but we'll see if that lasts for seven more days, with a home game against UCF and road games against Arizona State and Arizona all on tap before our next projection.

Plenty of SEC teams are right on their heels, and Tennessee could leapfrog the Cyclones if the Volunteers manage to beat Mississippi State and Auburn this week.

10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams

Fifth-to-Last In: San Diego State Aztecs (11-5, NET: 45, RES: 43, QUAL: 45)—UNLV loss stings, but that win over Houston still slaps.

Fourth-to-Last In: Indiana Hoosiers (14-5, NET: 61, RES: 32, QUAL: 61)—Following OSU win, reports of Indiana's death were greatly exaggerated.

Third-to-Last In: Pittsburgh Panthers (12-6, NET: 33, RES: 42, QUAL: 38)—Must snap out of four-game losing skid sooner than later.

Second-to-Last In: Nebraska Cornhuskers (12-5, NET: 49, RES: 44, QUAL: 43)—Just like Pittsburgh, a four-game schneid has proven nearly fatal.

Last Team In: UCF Knights (12-5, NET: 72, RES: 31, QUAL: 70)—Narrowly missed massive win over Houston; narrowly sneaks into field.

****CUT LINE****

First Team Out: Drake Bulldogs (16-2, NET: 63, RES: 39, QUAL: 74)—That Charleston Classic championship victory over Vanderbilt sure looks swell.

Second Team Out: Texas Longhorns (12-6, NET: 40, RES: 60, QUAL: 35)—Finally got a quality win (at Oklahoma), but needs more.

Third Team Out: Iowa Hawkeyes (12-6, NET: 55, RES: 51, QUAL: 53)—Classic bubble resume; winless vs. Q1; undefeated vs. Quads 2-4.

Fourth Team Out: Wake Forest Demon Deacons (14-4, NET: 77, RES: 39, QUAL: 75)—Getting close, but 1-4 vs. Quads 1-2 won't cut it.

Fifth Team Out: SMU Mustangs (14-4, NET: 35, RES: 46, QUAL: 41)—Impressive metrics, but their best win came against...Washington State?

ACC Summary

5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 2. Duke, 24. Louisville, 27. Clemson, 39. North Carolina, 44. Pittsburgh

Also Considered: Wake Forest, SMU, Florida State

Biggest Change: Pitt's losing skid stretches to four games

"They're still somewhat comfortably in the projected field as a No. 9 seed with a key week (at FSU, vs. Clemson) on tap. Win both and they'll be in excellent dancing shape once again."

That's what we wrote about Pittsburgh one week ago, following consecutive losses to Duke and Louisville. Except instead of winning both of those coin-flip games and potentially climbing up to a No. 7 seed, the Panthers dropped both games and have gotten all sorts of bubbly in a hurry.

The trio of nonconference wins over West Virginia, Ohio State and LSU still holds a decent amount of water, but they have done absolutely nothing in ACC play, sitting at 3-4 with those wins coming over Virginia Tech, Cal and Stanford.

The good news is that none of the losses was all that bad. Both the home games against Louisville and Clemson and the road game against Florida State are hovering right on the cutline between Quads 1 and 2. Certainly no shame in the road loss to Duke, either. However, that does mean they've blown four of the better opportunities that exist in this year's ACC.

They have two games left against North Carolina—though, the Tar Heels are in their own bubble trouble following Saturday's home loss to Stanford—as well as road games against Louisville, SMU and Wake Forest. If the Panthers can win two of those five and avoid picking up any other bad losses along the way, they ought to be fine. It's not looking great at the moment, though.

Elsewhere, there's a humongous stretch coming up for Wake Forest, which gets UNC and Duke at home this week before drawing Louisville (road) and Pitt (home) the following week. If the Demon Deacons can manage a 2-2 record against that slate, they should be in good shape for a bid.

Big 12 Summary

8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 4. Iowa State, 8. Kansas, 10. Houston, 19. West Virginia, 23. Texas Tech, 26. Arizona, 30. Baylor, 46. UCF

Also Considered: Cincinnati, Arizona State

Biggest Change: Texas Tech beefs up its resume in a big way

Heading into Big 12 play, Texas Tech was one of the biggest conundrums in the country.

The predictive metrics sure loved the Red Raiders. They were 15th on KenPom on the morning of Dec. 31, as well as 19th in the NET. But their best win to that point was either the home game against DePaul or the neutral game against Syracuse, neither of which is even remotely good.

They probably did not belong in the projected field at the time, and certainly didn't belong after losing that Big 12 opener at home against UCF.

But they've been on some kind of heater since the calendar flipped to 2025, winning road games against Utah, BYU and Kansas State, pulling away late for a 16-point home win over Arizona this past weekend and taking Iowa State to overtime before losing that one in dramatic fashion.

They're a borderline top 10 team in the country over the past three weeks, and what was our second-to-last team in the projected field one week ago has stormed rather comfortably back into the at-large mix as a result.

At this point, they could probably coast into the dance by simply not losing to the Big 12 teams not presently in the field. The Red Raiders still have two games each against Oklahoma State, TCU and Arizona State, as well as a home game against Colorado. Take care of business in those seven games and they'll finish no worse than 11-9 in the nation's third-best league.

As well as they've been playing, though, winning the conference isn't exactly out of the question.

Big East Summary

4 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 9. Marquette, 22. St. John's, 28. Connecticut, 32. Creighton

Also Considered: Xavier, Georgetown

Biggest Change: Quite the redistribution of wealth on Saturday

If you were hoping to see a Big East team earn a No. 1 seed in the 2025 NCAA tournament, it was a rough week for that dream.

Marquette needed overtime to survive at DePaul before losing at home to Xavier, slipping from a No. 2 seed to a No. 3 seed. Meanwhile, Connecticut lost at home to Creighton, dropping the Huskies to the point where they would just about need to win every game left on their schedule to have a viable case for a No. 1 seed.

The trade-off, though, is that the Big East is looking a whole lot better for at least four, possibly five bids.

Creighton was already just barely in our projected field one week ago, but the Bluejays smoked Providence on Tuesday before their statement road win over UConn on Saturday afternoon. Coupled with their previous blowout of Kansas, they now have a rock-solid resume with three Quad 1 wins and a 6-6 record against the top two Quads.

Xavier also had a dynamite week, clipping Villanova in a battle of bubble teams before that road win over Marquette.

The Musketeers are still well behind Creighton and not quite in the projected field yet, but that would change in a hurry if they stay hot. They've got at St. John's, vs. Connecticut and at Creighton representing the remainder of their January schedule. They've had intriguing predictive metrics for a while, but couldn't quite get over the hump in a Quad 1 game. Until now.

Big Ten Summary

10 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 11. Purdue, 12. Michigan State, 14. Oregon, 15. Wisconsin, 16. Illinois, 18. Michigan, 34. UCLA, 36. Maryland, 43. Indiana, 45. Nebraska

Also Considered: Iowa, Ohio State, Northwestern, Penn State

Biggest Change: Purdue thrives out west

While Iowa's first ever trip to the West Coast for conference games was a disaster that knocked the Hawkeyes out of the projected field, Purdue had a much more successful journey beyond the Rocky Mountains.

It took the Boilermakers a bit to recalibrate, trailing by 10 late in the first half at Washington. But they caught fire after the intermission, going on a 33-9 run en route to what turned into a comfortable-looking 11-point victory.

They carried that momentum into the much bigger showdown with Oregon on Saturday, once again leveraging a "first half of the second half" run to pull ahead for good in a game where points were at a premium.

That has been a common theme for Purdue's opponents as of late, though. Since getting torched 87-69 by Auburn in late December, the Boilermakers have held their foe to 68 points or fewer in seven consecutive games, not allowing either Pacific Northwest team to even reach 60 this week.

Some of that is dumb luck, as those seven opponents shot a combined 26.8 percent from three-point range. But in lieu of their typical-over-the-past-decade mountainous shot-blocking presence in the paint, the Boilermakers have started to dominate the turnover battle, almost annoying the opposition into bad shots when they aren't forcing giveaways. Oregon entered that game averaging just shy of 80 points per game, and then looked helpless trying to score against Purdue.

As a result of that successful road trip, Purdue has skyrocketed to the top of the Big Ten pecking order, ranked 12th or better in every single metric. And if the Boilermakers continue to excel through the upcoming homestand against Ohio State, Michigan and Indiana, let the conversation about a third consecutive No. 1 seed begin.

SEC Summary

12 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Auburn, 3. Alabama, 5. Florida, 6. Tennessee, 7. Kentucky, 13. Mississippi State, 17. Texas A&M, 20. Ole Miss, 25. Missouri, 33. Georgia, 35. Oklahoma, 37. Vanderbilt

Also Considered: Texas

Biggest Change: Missouri and Vanderbilt go 2-0 and skyrocket

In this monster league, going 2-0 in any given week can be an arduous task.

But going 2-0 in a week when one of those games is against a team that entered the week in good shape for a possible No. 1 seed?

That sure is one way for a bubble team to improve its standing.

Or, in this case, two bubble teams.

Missouri was a No. 10 seed in last week's projection, but the Tigers have all of a sudden put together a four-game winning streak. The previous week's home wins over LSU and Vanderbilt weren't particularly noteworthy, but winning at Florida before putting a hurting on Arkansas was some kind of statement week from a team that did already have a mighty nice win over Kansas on its resume.

Could that four-game winning streak immediately give way to a five-game losing streak? Maybe, as they do have road games against Texas, Mississippi State and Tennessee, plus home games against Ole Miss and Texas A&M between now and Super Bowl Sunday. For now, though, this resume—with two marquee wins and nary a loss outside of Quad 1—is looking great, nearly up to a No. 6 seed.

Then there's Vanderbilt, which was our second team out one week ago after the aforementioned loss at Missouri. The Commodores eked out a three-point home win over South Carolina before stunning Tennessee on Saturday. They nearly blew what was a 16-point lead midway through the second half, but they managed to pull off a pretty major upset.

Can they keep it going with a win over Alabama or Kentucky this week? That sure would solidify their spot in the field.

Lastly, we are obligated to at least mention Arkansas' 0-5 start to SEC play. The Razorbacks were a borderline tournament team when conference play began, but they are all but dead at this point, likely needing to go at least 8-5 the rest of the way to have any hope for a bid. Winning both of the home games against Georgia and Oklahoma this week is a virtual must to have any hope.

Mid-Majors Summary (AAC, A-10, MVC, MWC, WCC)

5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 21. Memphis, 29. Gonzaga, 31. Utah State, 38. Saint Mary's, 40. San Diego State, 42. New Mexico, 47. Bradley, 49. George Mason

Also Considered: Drake, North Texas, VCU, Boise State, San Francisco, Santa Clara

Biggest Change: Complete and utter carnage

In some weeks, it feels like 10 of the at-large bids ought to go to teams from outside the five major conferences.

This was, definitively, not one of those weeks.

In the A-10, Dayton lost at home to George Mason and has now completely thrown away what was an impressive 10-2 start to the season with wins over UConn, Marquette and Northwestern. Maybe the Flyers could scrape their way back into the at-large mix, but they're barely worth looking at at this point. Meanwhile, St. Bonaventure suffered yet another loss (at Duquesne) and is effectively (at least temporarily) dead, as well.

In the AAC, Memphis lost at Temple, giving all sorts of deja vu reminders of when they began to collapse at this time one year ago. We'll see if they can avoid a similar meltdown in what is an even worse conference than it was last season.

The Mountain West went completely belly up, UNLV upsetting both Utah State and San Diego State, while New Mexico lost to San Jose State before handing Boise State a loss. Yes, all four MWC teams in the at-large conversation took a loss, despite playing just one head-to-head game. Utah State remains in great shape for a bid, but that's how you go from a possible four-bid league to a questionable two-bid league.

But the biggest stunner of all came in the WCC, where Gonzaga suffered back-to-back losses in league play for the first time in over a decade, that last happening in February 2014.

Neither loss (at Oregon State, vs. Santa Clara) was a terrible individual outcome, but it's recently uncharted territory for a team that quietly didn't have that great of a resume in the first place.

The Zags aren't exactly on the bubble, but a lot of wind came out of those sails. And they haven't even played any of the four games against the two teams who typically give them the most trouble: Saint Mary's and San Francisco. Things could get hairy in Spokane over the next six weeks.

[Credit where it's due, though: the Missouri Valley's Drake and Bradley both took care of business this week. We'll see if they can continue to hold serve until their big rematch on Feb. 16.]

Other 21 Leagues Summary

21 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 41. UC Irvine, 48. McNeese State, 50. Lipscomb, 51. Yale, 52. Samford, 53. Middle Tennessee, 54. Akron, 55. Charleston, 56. South Alabama, 57. Northern Colorado, 58. Cleveland State, 59. Utah Valley, 60. UNC Asheville, 61. Bryant, 62. Quinnipiac, 63. Southern, 64. Nebraska Omaha, 65. Morehead State, 66. Colgate, 67. Howard, 68. LIU

Also Considered: UC San Diego

Biggest Change: Undefeateds are dropping like flies

It has been two weeks since the nation's last undefeated team (Tennessee) took its first loss, and now it's a question of whether anyone will be able to run the table within its conference.

No one managed to do so last year, and the only team to pull it off in 2022-23 was Oral Roberts in the Summit League.

Auburn, Duke, Houston, Michigan State and Saint Mary's all still have a chance in bigger leagues, but let's briefly shout out the programs from this tier that have yet to take an L in league play.

Bryant Bulldogs (4-0 in America East)—Went 6-9 in nonconference play without a single KenPom top 200 win, but already pummeled both Vermont and UMass Lowell by 20+ at home.

Northern Colorado Bears (6-0 in Big Sky)—Four of their six wins have come by four points or fewer, but the Bears have definitely become the team to beat in this league.

UC Irvine Anteaters (7-0 in Big West)—The one team from this tier with a realistic path to an at-large bid, UCI blew out CSF and Cal Poly by a combined margin of 50 points this week.

Princeton Tigers and Yale Bulldogs (both 3-0 in Ivy League)—Don't want to leave anyone off the list, but Ivy League play just began 10 days ago. Could be some intriguing battles between these two squads, though, the first coming on Jan. 31.

Akron Zips and Miami (OH) RedHawks (both 5-0 in Mid-American)—Their lone regular-season meeting takes place this Saturday at Akron. Winner will become the favorite to win a league that always seems to put an upset-minded team into the dance.

Howard Bison (3-0 in MEAC)—If they do make the tournament, watch out for Blake Harper. The freshman is averaging nearly 20 points and seven rebounds per game.

LIU Sharks (6-0 in NEC)—Went 2-11 vs. D-I opponents in nonconference play, despite only playing two games against the KenPom top 150. But they're rolling through the NEC, including a road win over league favorite Central Connecticut.

McNeese Cowboys (8-0 in Southland)—Aside from Duke in the ACC, this is the team most likely to achieve perfection in league play. McNeese started out 5-5, but was competitive in all five losses, including at Alabama and at Mississippi State. Major Cinderella candidate again.

Southern Jaguars (5-0 in SWAC)—Relatively clear favorite to win the league has gotten out to a great start, including a 16-point win over Bethune-Cookman.

St. Thomas Tommies (5-0 in Summit League)—They're ineligible for the NCAA tournament in what is just their fourth season as a D-I program, but that hasn't stopped the Tommies from already handing losses to both South Dakota State and North Dakota State.

Nebraska Omaha Mavericks (5-0 in Summit League)—Also already has wins over NDSU and SDSU, and will host the Tommies on Thursday to give the league an outright leader.

Utah Valley Wolverines (5-0 in WAC)—Grand Canyon is still the favorite to win the WAC, but UVU scored a home win over GCU two weeks ago. The rematch in Phoenix is slated for Feb. 1.