Several of the blue-blood programs in men's college basketball are sitting pretty for yet another trip to the NCAA tournament. Duke is staking quite the claim to the No. 1 overall seed, while both Kansas and Kentucky are No. 2 seeds in our latest projection of the tournament picture.

For the other blue bloods, though, things aren't looking so great.

Indiana, North Carolina and UCLA probably would be in the field if it were selected today, but none of those teams with five-plus national championships is comfortably destined for a bid.

Wouldn't take much for all three of those teams to miss this year's dance, as is the case for a lot of teams that could be classified as "top programs."

Using our annual "top programs" definition of any team that either A) appeared in the preseason AP Top 25 (indicating they were supposed to be good this season) or B) appeared in at least six of the past eight NCAA tournaments (indicating that we kind of expect to see them in the bracket every year), there sure are a lot of teams not at the top of their game.

In total, there are 11 "top programs" either narrowly on the right side of the consensus projected bubble (in the field, but no better than a No. 9 seed on Bracket Matrix) or out of the projected field altogether. And, in several cases, with no realistic hope of climbing back into the at-large conversation, barring a complete 180 from how they've played through the first 10 weeks.

One of those 11 teams is Iona, which is sitting at 6-12 overall right now after having already missed two of the previous three NCAA tournaments. The Gaels snuck their way through the criteria by winning the MAAC tournament in each of 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021, but we're not going to include them here.

Beyond that outlier, though, are 10 pretty noteworthy programs that haven't put their best foot forward this season. Let's take a look at what has gone wrong for them, and what it would take to still secure a bid to the dance.

NET, RES and QUAL rankings current through the start of play Tuesday, but records and best wins/losses were updated to account for Tuesday's results.

Teams presented in alphabetical order.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Resume: 11-7, NET: 56, RES: 69, QUAL: 45

Three Best Wins: Michigan (in NYC), at Miami, Lipscomb

Three Worst Losses: at LSU, Ole Miss, at Missouri

Current Bracket Matrix Projection: 8th Team Out

Arkansas was already pretty bubble-y heading into conference play, sitting at 11-2 with one really good neutral-site victory, two forgivable neutral-site losses and 10 wins that collectively aren't worth a hill of beans—one just barely Quad 2, two Quad 3s and seven Quad 4s.

And though they have yet to suffer a particularly bad loss in SEC play, starting out 0-5 was considerably ill-advised.

The Razorbacks are presently 1-7 vs. Quad 1, which sticks out like a sore thumb when scanning the team sheets.

The good news is their metrics aren't bad. Mind you, they're not good, either. But they have one of those "in position to be in position" resumes that could be drastically altered by one really good win or one really bad loss—and the latter is impossible to find in SEC play. Even the loss at LSU was a Quad 1 result (for the time being, at least).

The bad news is the Hogs already have seven losses and they have 13 losable games left on their schedule (plus the SEC tournament).

The worse news is they just lost Boogie Fland for the rest of the season to a hand injury.

Somehow, they need to find seven league wins to make any case for a bid. Getting there very likely includes home wins over Georgia and Oklahoma in the next few days, so things would go from "undeniably ugly" to "downright dire" if they don't take care of business in Fayetteville this week.

Cincinnati Bearcats

Resume: 12-6, NET: 39, RES: 54, QUAL: 38

Three Best Wins: at Colorado, Xavier, Arizona State

Three Worst Losses: at Kansas State, at Villanova, Texas Tech

Current Bracket Matrix Projection: 5th Team Out

If selection and seeding were based entirely on predictive metrics, Cincinnati would be in solid shape for a bid—certainly better than Oklahoma, Indiana, UCF or Wake Forest.

This is, of course, not the case. Quality wins are far more important than the quantity of your scoring margin against Quad 4 opponents, and Cincinnati is severely lacking in the quality wins department.

The Bearcats went 10-1 in nonconference play but did not face a single team that would be worthy of an at-large bid today. Though they were at one point a top-10 team on KenPom, they were already looking iffy for a bid prior to starting out 0-4 in Big 12 play, including a not great loss to sub-.500 Kansas State.

Back-to-back wins over Colorado and Arizona State kept the Bearcats in the conversation but didn't do much to improve their resume.

Given their remaining schedule—devoid of games against Kansas, Arizona and Texas Tech, with one game each against Houston (road), Iowa State (road) and Baylor (home)—finishing .500 or better in Big 12 play is probably non-negotiable here, as they could get to 10-10 without even adding a Quad 1 win, if Utah (NET 70) and UCF (NET 73) end up slipping outside the top 75 and no longer counting as Quad 1 road wins.

To pull that off, though, they probably need to figure out how to score. In nine games thus far against KenPom top 100 foes, Cincinnati has yet to score more than 68 points.

Indiana Hoosiers

Resume: 14-5, NET: 61, RES: 32, QUAL: 61

Three Best Wins: at Ohio State, at Penn State, Providence (in Bahamas)

Three Worst Losses: at Nebraska, at Iowa, Louisville (in Bahamas)

Current Bracket Matrix Projection: 2nd Team Out

There's not typically much optimistic scuttlebutt in a piece like this, but let's begin this one by pointing out that Indiana's quest for a bid is nowhere near as dead as everyone was talking a few days ago.

After consecutive 25-point losses to Iowa and Illinois last week—joining the previous 28-point loss to Louisville, 17-point loss to Nebraska and 16-point loss to Gonzaga on the list of blowouts suffered by the Hoosiers this season—the pitchforks were out in full force, calling for Mike Woodson to be fired and already speculating at who the next Indiana coach will be.

While that's a perfectly understandable reaction from a frustrated fanbase, it's worth pointing out that Indiana would be in the projected field today if it had won either of those games, and arguably does just barely belong as things currently stand.

As is, the Hoosiers have yet to suffer a loss outside of Quad 1 and at least have a resume that warrants serious consideration.

The problem, however, is that this team just isn't very good.

Oh, there's plenty of individual talent on the roster. Myles Rice (while at Washington State) was one of the best freshmen in the nation last season. Oumar Ballo is a double-double machine who was nothing short of spectacular against Ohio State this past Friday. Mackenzie Mgbako and Bryson Tucker are likely both NBA-bound. And Trey Galloway ought to be a glue-guy extraordinaire.

However, it hasn't come together like it was supposed to. And when things go south in a game for this team, the wheels completely come off.

With nothing but Quad 1 and Quad 2 games left on the schedule, Indiana has plenty of opportunity to solidify its spot in the projected field. The Hoosiers also could lose just about all of those games before having really no choice but to make another coaching change.

North Carolina Tar Heels

Resume: 12-8, NET: 38, RES: 40, QUAL: 32

Three Best Wins: UCLA (in NYC), SMU, Dayton (in Hawaii)

Three Worst Losses: Stanford, at Wake Forest, at Louisville

Current Bracket Matrix Projection: No. 10 seed

Had the Tar Heels taken care of business at home against Stanford this weekend, they would have avoided being included in this article. Because while they did already have six losses through their first 14 games, at least all six were of the Quad 1A variety, and they had done enough in the wins department—the three above, plus respectable road wins over Notre Dame and NC State—to mostly make up for whiffing on all of those golden opportunities.

When you blow chance after chance, though, you're not exactly firmly in the field.

And when you blow chance after chance and suffer a Quad 3 loss at home to a team that still isn't really in the at-large conversation even after upsetting you, things suddenly get all sorts of dicey.

On the glass half empty/full front, North Carolina has basically the biggest four-game gauntlet you can possibly get in this year's ACC on the horizon. After this Saturday's home game against Boston College, the Heels will consecutively play at Pittsburgh, at Duke, vs. Pittsburgh and at Clemson.

Winning even two of those four games would be a net positive, especially if one of those wins comes against Duke. They figure to be about a 15-point underdog, but we're always reminded to throw out the records when those rivals square off. Maybe they can pull off a stunner and soar back up the projected seed list.

For the time being, however, there's some serious work still to be done to avoid a scenario where North Carolina goes from missing the tournament one year to a No. 1 seed the next year to missing the tournament again the following year—an ignominious feat achieved only twice before, by Indiana State in 1978-80 and Minnesota in 1996-98.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Resume: 10-9, NET: 84, RES: 83, QUAL: 81

Three Best Wins: at Nebraska, UCLA, Penn State

Three Worst Losses: at Kennesaw State, Princeton (in Newark), at Penn State

Current Bracket Matrix Projection: Not in any projections

After recent wins over UCLA and Nebraska, Rutgers did at least have a discernible at-large pulse. And with Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey leading the way, goodness knows they won't be lacking for national attention if they can claw their way back into the conversation for a bid.

As things presently stand, though, the Scarlet Knights are nowhere close to the projected field, sitting at 1-7 against Quad 1, 0-2 against Quad 3 and outside the top 65 in every metric.

Here's the good news: Opportunity is at their doorstep in the form of home games against Michigan State, Michigan and Illinois within their next four games.

Jersey Mike's Arena, formerly known as the RAC, has always been a tough venue for visiting teams. Wisconsin and Purdue were able to win at Rutgers earlier this month, but largely because Harper was nowhere near full strength while battling an illness.

The final margins of those games don't even remotely tell the whole story, either. Purdue won by 18, but it was a five-point game with about 10 minutes remaining. Likewise, though Wisconsin eventually won by 12, that was a three-point affair with six minutes to go.

It's pretty likely Rutgers wins at least one of those three games. And if the Scarlet Knights are able to win two of them (plus the road game against Northwestern in the middle), things could get interesting in a hurry.

Of course, it's a testament to how far gone they are at the moment, needing to take two games from three of the five best teams in the league just to be remotely considered for a bid.

Saint Mary's Gaels

Resume: 16-3, NET: 27, RES: 45, QUAL: 31

Three Best Wins: at Utah, Nebraska (in Sioux Falls), USC (in Palm Springs)

Three Worst Losses: Utah State, Arizona State (in Palm Springs), at Boise State

Current Bracket Matrix Projection: No. 10 seed

After three consecutive years as a No. 5 seed, Saint Mary's is back in what was its seemingly permanent home for more than a decade: The Bubble.

The Gaels have two Quad 1 wins, though only barely. Utah is 70th in the NET, and only road wins against the top 75 count as Quad 1. Similarly, Nebraska is 49th and only neutral wins against the top 50 count as Quad 1. So, if you're the type to fixate entirely on Quad records and not the actual games within each Quad, do note that the Gaels' best wins could be in quite the state of Q1/Q2 daily flux over the next two months.

In lieu of a particularly quality win, the Gaels have pummeled the bottom tier of the West Coast Conference to at least get their predictive metrics looking nicer.

Saint Mary's was 56th in the NET and 45th on KenPom the morning of its first WCC game, but beating Pacific, Portland, Loyola Marymount, San Diego and Pepperdine (twice) by a combined total of 159 points has vaulted them up to 27th in both metrics without playing anyone worth a darn.

Business is about to pick up, though.

With two games left against each of Gonzaga, Oregon State, Washington State, San Francisco and Santa Clara, that WCC slate will be tougher than usual, for better or worse. The Gaels do need some quality wins to solidify their spot in the field, but if they get swept by Gonzaga and drop two of the other eight, they're probably toast.

Texas Longhorns

Resume: 13-6, NET: 40, RES: 60, QUAL: 35

Three Best Wins: at Oklahoma, Missouri, at NC State

Three Worst Losses: Ohio State (in Las Vegas), Connecticut, at Texas A&M

Current Bracket Matrix Projection: First Team Out

Last week's road win over Oklahoma was a must-have for the Texas Longhorns, following an 0-3 start to SEC play that included home losses to Auburn and Tennessee.

Obviously, there's nothing wrong with losses to those two potential No. 1 seeds. However, to finish .500 in league play, you need to pick up a road win for every home loss suffered. And after a nonconference slate in which Texas lost its only two games of any particular consequence, a .500 record in league play might be a requirement.

Going 8-10 would probably be enough, as it's likely at least six of those wins would end up being Quad 1 games. However, with one of the worst nonconference strengths of schedule in the conference, Texas is definitively not one of the teams in this league that would be a viable candidate to dance at four or even six games below .500 in SEC play.

The good news is the Longhorns' schedule is loaded with the less-impossible road wins that this conference has to offer, still playing at South Carolina, LSU, Vanderbilt and Arkansas. (They also have road games left against Ole Miss and Mississippi State, but those are more likely to result in losses.)

The bad news, though, is that the only one of those four teams they also face at home is Arkansas. They do also get Oklahoma at home to close out the regular season, but we'll see if that easiest-remaining-yet-still-difficult game will even make a difference at that point.

UCLA Bruins

Resume: 12-6, NET: 34, RES: 44, QUAL: 30

Three Best Wins: at Oregon, at Arizona, Gonzaga (in Inglewood)

Three Worst Losses: at Rutgers, New Mexico (in Henderson, NV), at Nebraska

Current Bracket Matrix Projection: No. 9 seed

The first half of January was none too kind to the Bruins. Not only did they lose four consecutive games, but they were uncompetitive in the losses to Michigan and Maryland, while the losses to Rutgers and Nebraska were two of their three worst of the season.

In the span of two weeks, UCLA plummeted from No. 13 on our overall seed list all the way down to No. 36.

As ugly as things got for a hot minute, though, UCLA still has a tournament-caliber resume and is at least somewhat back in our good graces after obliterating Iowa Friday night and following it up with a home win over Wisconsin Tuesday.

At the start of play on Tuesday, the Bruins were one of just 12 teams in the country with at least three wins against the top half of Quad 1, the other 11 each extremely comfortably in the projected field.

To be clear, those aren't borderline top half of Quad 1 wins, either. Even after Gonzaga's recent losses to Oregon State and Santa Clara, that third-best win on UCLA's resume still came against a foe that ranks 20th in the NET.

And though the Bruins have suffered six losses, none was particularly unforgivable. Plenty of contenders to win the Big Ten are going to drop road games against Rutgers and Nebraska, and there's no serious shame in that neutral loss to New Mexico in what was a mutual slop fest five days into the regular season, featuring a combined total of 45 turnovers.

Add it all up and UCLA would certainly be in the field if today were Selection Sunday.

Can the Bruins maintain it, though?

A road loss to either Washington or USC in the next week would be bad news bears, and the schedule only gets tougher from there.

Given the nonconference wins over Arizona and Gonzaga, finishing 9-11 in Big Ten play should be enough. Perhaps even 8-12 could do the trick. But we'll see if they can get there.

Villanova Wildcats

Resume: 12-8, NET: 58, RES: 95, QUAL: 47

Three Best Wins: Connecticut, Cincinnati, at Butler

Three Worst Losses: Columbia, Virginia (in Baltimore), Georgetown

Current Bracket Matrix Projection: Not in any projections

The good news for the Wildcats is that things are looking better than they did two months ago, when they were 2-3 and already saddled with three of their four worst losses of the season.

After the 10-point loss to Virginia that put a capstone on that abysmal start, there were questions as to whether Kyle Neptune would even make it back to Philadelphia with his job.

From "Thanksgiving Eve" through Jan. 8, however, Villanova won eight of nine games, the lone loss a forgivable one on the road against Creighton, playing its way back onto the at-large radar.

But the resume metrics here are still just plain not good, and that's a major problem.

Since NET became the primary sorting metric for the selection committee for the 2019 NCAA tournament, no team has received an at-large bid with a resume metrics average rank of worse than 57.5—which Rutgers managed to do in 2022, just barely sneaking in despite a 5-5 record against the top half of Quad 1.

With both two Quad 3 losses and a Quad 4 loss to go along with nary a Quad 1 win, Villanova has quite a bit of work to do to get its average back into the top 60. The Wildcats almost have to win at least one of the road games against Marquette (this Friday) or Connecticut (Feb. 18) to have any realistic case for a bid.

Virginia Cavaliers

Resume: 9-10, NET: 139, RES: 121, QUAL: 123

Three Best Wins: Villanova (in Baltimore), NC State, Boston College

Three Worst Losses: at California, at Stanford, SMU

Current Bracket Matrix Projection: Not in any projections

The ACC's three new teams (SMU, Cal and Stanford) have been heaping all sorts of dirt on the grave of the Cavaliers. UVA has gone 0-4 against those newcomers, swept by SMU and blown out in both halves of their trip out to California.

Not that Virginia exactly had an at-large pulse before suffering those losses. The Wahoos did knock off Villanova two weeks into the season, but proceeded to get annihilated by Tennessee, St. John's and Florida en route to what is presently a 2-10 record against KenPom top 200 opponents.

Whether this team is so bad because Tony Bennett abruptly retired less than a month before the season began or he abruptly retired because this team is so bad is an interesting "chicken or the egg" debate. Either way, this is presently the worst-rated Virginia team in KenPom history (which dates back to 1996-97).

The Cavaliers do take and make a lot of three-pointers, so maybe they could manage to catch fire from distance during the ACC tournament, making a decent run in a league that doesn't have much aside from Duke this season. But this has been, by far, the worst team on this list, and it would be a huge surprise if Virginia gets back to the dance.