NFL MVP voters have already spoken.
We just don't know what they've said yet.
Voting results won't be made public for a little while longer, but oddsmakers already have a strong hunch about how this will play out. Based on the final MVP odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (accessed via Vegas Insider), there is an overwhelming favorite in this field.
That player isn't running unopposed, though, so after laying out the final odds, we'll examine the MVP credentials of said favorite and the player closest behind.
Final MVP Odds
Josh Allen: -450 (bet $450 to win $100)
Lamar Jackson: +320 (bet $100 to win $320)
Saquon Barkley: +8000
Joe Burrow: +10000
Jared Goff: +15000
Jayden Daniels: +25000
Baker Mayfield: +40000
Justin Herbert: +50000
Sam Darnold: +50000
Patrick Mahomes: +50000
Derrick Henry: +50000
Jalen Hurts: +50000
Josh Allen's MVP Argument
Last offseason, the Buffalo Bills split from several impact veterans, including Josh Allen's top two targets in Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Stepping back felt like a distinct possibility, if not for the team overall, then at least for the offense.
That slippage never surfaced. In fact, Buffalo matched a franchise record with 13 wins, collected its fifth consecutive AFC East crown and averaged the second-most points in the league (30.9).
Allen isn't solely responsible for this success, but he has had the biggest say in it. He's had loud stat lines in the past, but he never did a better job of blending volume production with efficiency. He tallied 28 touchdown passes against just six interceptions, posted his third-highest completion percentage (63.6) and scored his second-most rushing touchdowns (12) despite tying for the second-fewest carries of his career (102).
This was one-man-wrecking-ball type domination, and Allen had his club appearing unstoppable more often than not. Stats alone won't decide this race since his top competitor has some outrageous numbers of his own, but Allen's are elite regardless and could form an award-winning combination with the compelling narrative about his ability to overcome the many roster subtractions.
Making the Case for Lamar Jackson
Remember all of the awesome things we just said about Allen's season? Well, they weren't enough to get him All-Pro first team honors, as that spot instead went to Lamar Jackson.
Could the MVP voting play out in similar fashion? Jackson has certainly given voters plenty to think about.
Head-to-head, Jackson had better numbers than Allen in just about everything: passing yards (4,172 to 3,731), rushing yards (915 to 531), passing touchdowns (41 to 28), interceptions (four to six), quarterback rating (119.6 to 101.4). And while Allen's Bills won more games (13 to 12), Jackson's Baltimore Ravens dominated the teams' Week 4 matchup, winning by a massive 35-10 count.
Something seems to be holding Jackson back in voters' eyes. Perhaps there's some voter fatigue considering he won the award last season (and in 2019). Or maybe he's fighting against narratives, since Baltimore's offseason was defined by additions, most notably bulldozing running back Derrick Henry, who earned All-Pro second-team honors while tallying 1,921 rushing yards and 16 rushing scores.
Oddsmakers seem convinced that Allen will be the winner, but Jackson's case is still highly convincing.
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