The road to Super Bowl 59 begins on Saturday with the start of the wild-card round before eventually culminating with the big game in New Orleans on Feb. 9.
All eyes are going to be on the Kansas City Chiefs in their quest to become the first team to three-peat as champions. The NFC runs through Ford Field with the Detroit Lions looking to reach the Super Bowl for the first time ever after winning a franchise-record 15 games in the regular season.
In the final hours before the playoffs kickoff, here are the updated Super Bowl odds and different scenarios that could play out this weekend to set up matchups for the divisional round.
Odds to win Super Bowl 59
- Detroit Lions: +295 (bet $100 to win $295)
- Kansas City Chiefs: +350
- Baltimore Ravens: +550
- Buffalo Bills: +650
- Philadelphia Eagles: +700
- Minnesota Vikings: +1500
- Green Bay Packers: +2200
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +2500
- Los Angeles Chargers: +3000
- Washington Commanders: +4500
- Los Angeles Rams: +4500
- Denver Broncos: +5000
- Pittsburgh Steelers: +9000
- Houston Texans: +9000
Odds via DraftKings
AFC Playoff Scenarios
The Chiefs could potentially avoid the two teams considered their most difficult matchups. It's guaranteed at least one of the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens will lose before the AFC Championship Game since those two teams would play in the divisional round if they win this weekend.
Since the playoffs reseed after the first round, the Chiefs' potential opponents in the divisional round are the four teams in the AFC that aren't the Bills or Ravens.
A Denver Broncos upset of the Bills would guarantee they play in Kansas City next week since they are the lowest seed. The winner of the Houston Texans-Los Angeles Chargers game will go to K.C. only if the Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers lose.
The Chiefs will deservedly be favored against any of their potential opponents, but the Chargers or Broncos could present interesting challenges. The Chargers lost both games to Kansas City in the regular season, but the first matchup was a 17-10 final and the second meeting ended with the Chargers missing a 31-yard field goal in a 19-17 loss as time expired.
Only one of the Broncos-Chiefs games during the regular season counts because the Week 18 matchup saw Kansas City rest all of its key starters. Their first game was a 16-14 final that the Chiefs won on a blocked field goal at the end of the fourth quarter.
With respect to the other teams in the playoffs, anything less than a Ravens-Bills game in the divisional round would feel like a letdown. The Broncos and Steelers are good stories from this season, but the marquee matchup is the two MVP favorites meeting in a playoff game.
NFC Playoff Scenarios
As you can tell from the odds, the NFC playoff picture features two heavyweights in the Lions and Philadelphia Eagles at the top with everyone else chasing them.
Detroit has a great chance to make the Super Bowl after coming up just short in the NFC Championship Game last year. The top seed in the NFC has reached the Super Bowl in each of the past two seasons and three times in the past five years.
The odds do feel somewhat disrespectful of a Minnesota Vikings team that won 14 games in the regular season, but the path to the Super Bowl is extremely tough after losing that Week 18 matchup to Detroit that decided the No. 1 seed.
Losing that game means the Vikings will have to play on the road for all three rounds unless either the Washington Commanders or Green Bay Packers advance to the NFC Championship Game.
Since the NFL expanded to the 14-team playoff format in the 2020 season, the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the only team in either conference that has reached the Super Bowl by winning three road games.
The Packers at one point seemed like they were among the top teams in the NFC hierarchy, but three losses in their final five games to finish in the seventh spot has made the path extremely difficult.
Green Bay would need to defeat the top two seeds in the NFC in the next two weeks just to reach the conference title game. The loss of Christian Watson to a torn ACL significantly alters how the offense operates based on the stats from this season.
Lions head coach Dan Campbell doesn't have a rooting interest this week, but he may have tipped his hand after the Week 18 game who he expects to play in the divisional round.
The Los Angeles Rams, who will play the Vikings, didn't take too kindly to Campbell's remark.
The Rams are a hard team to figure out, despite winning nine of their final 12 games after a 1-4 start. They scored 44 points in a Week 12 win over the Buffalo Bills, then proceeded to score a combined 44 points in their next three games against the San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals.
Matthew Stafford hasn't thrown for more than 200 yards in a game since the Bills win. He had just one touchdown and one interception in his final three starts of the regular season.
While it is a possibility that Campbell's declaration comes true, all three of the lower seeds in the NFC feel like they have a decent chance of winning. If that scenario were to play out, the Lions would host the Packers in two weeks. If the Vikings and Washington Commanders both win, Washington would play at Ford Field in the divisional round.
The Packers feel like they are in the most danger because of the matchup, but a Jordan Love heater like he had in the wild-card round last year against the Dallas Cowboys makes them a threat. They went just 1-5 against teams that made the NFC playoffs, including a 34-29 loss to the Eagles.
That first Packers-Eagles game happened way back in Week 1 and on a slippery field in Brazil, so trying to take any lessons from that matchup at this point seems foolish.
The Commanders-Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup feels like a toss up because both teams have very explosive offenses and leaky defenses. The Rams, for as inconsistent as they have been, could take off with Stafford getting extra rest after sitting out Week 18 and Puka Nacua being virtually uncoverable.
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