With less than four weeks remaining until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, it's getting to be crunch time for Major League Baseball's free agents who have yet to choose a home.
By no means is that Feb. 10 landmark on the baseball calendar any sort of deadline for free agency, though. Cody Bellinger didn't re-sign with the Cubs until late February last year, while Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell all waited until March to make their decisions.
But that was highly unusual. The year before that, Carlos Correa was one of the last noteworthy free agents to sign, his Giants-to-Mets-to-Twins saga mercifully coming to an end on Jan. 11. After that, I believe the only free agent who signed for at least $15M was that wacky four-year, $26M deal with all sorts of conditional options that Michael Wacha and the Padres made in mid-February.
So, it's definitely a little weird that there are still so many noteworthy names available.
Great news for the many teams still looking to fill some gaps, though, as Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Rōki Sasaki and the rest of the players on this list are eventually going to sign somewhere.
Before they do, let's take another swing at playing matchmaker with the big fish remaining in a dwindling pond.
Players are presented in alphabetical order by last name.
1B Pete Alonso
Spotrac Market Value: 6 years, $174M
Matchmaker Verdict: New York Mets
As has been the case since the Mets got hot over the summer and wisely chose to not place Pete Alonso on the trade block, it still feels like much less of a question of where he lands and more of a question of what his new contract with the Mets will look like.
Maybe not, though. There may come a point in the next few weeks where the Polar Bear gets fed up with waiting them out and instead takes a carbon copy of the two-year, $62M deal that the Giants gave Blake Snell last winter, with plans to become San Francisco's first player with 30 home runs in a season in more than two decades before opting out of the second year and rekindling conversations with the Mets.
However, the latest report from former Mets GM Jim Duquette is that Alonso would be willing to accept one of those option-heavy, short-term deals...but only from the Mets.
It still hasn't transpired, though, and goodness only knows what the hold-up is.
The Mets presently have an estimated payroll of $259M, this after opening the past two seasons at right around $330M. They could sign Alonso to a $30M salary, fail to trade away Starling Marte's extremely-expendable-with-Juan-Soto-in-the-fold $20.75M salary and still enter the season $40M below where they've been lately.
And that could be what eventually drives Alonso away; knowing that they've got the money, knowing that Steve Cohen has spared no expense to get the guys he really wants and yet he's watching them try to nickel-and-dime him here in a game of chicken.
He seems to want to stay in Queens, though, so a re-signing with the Mets remains the assumption.
3B Alex Bregman
Spotrac Market Value: 4 years, $120M
Matchmaker Verdict: Boston Red Sox
If the Mets do indeed re-sign Pete Alonso, that would seem to take them out of the running for Alex Bregman. They presumably still want to add a corner infielder, but only one. Mark Vientos can handle the other spot, ideally for years to come.
Removing the Mets from the equation leaves Boston and Detroit as the only particularly logical landing spots, with Nolan Arenado's presence on the trade block a gigantic variable in that race.
The scuttlebutt from The Athletic's Katie Woo from a week ago was that it's looking like 'Red Sox or bust' for Arenado to get traded this offseason, but with 'bust' being a real possibility, as it doesn't sound like they're particularly close to an agreeable deal.
Amid the Arenado and Bregman rumors, there have been conflicting reports on whether Rafael Devers is willing to give up his spot at the hot corner.
What about Bregman at second base, though?
USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported back at the beginning of the offseason that Bregman would be "amenable" to a shift to second. And if Boston could make that happen, goodness gracious, what a lineup that would be, with center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela likely slated for the 9-hole after a season with 15 home runs and 19 stolen bases.
For what it's worth, Bregman sure has loved that Green Monster over the course of his career. In 21 games played at Fenway Park, he has triple-slashed .375/.490/.750 with seven home runs and a total of 16 extra-base hits.
Adding another bat would further block the path to regular big league ABs for top prospects Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell, but what a nice dilemma that would be, to have too many quality options.
As far as finances are concerned, the Red Sox could afford to sign multiple Bregmans. Their current estimated payroll is $168M, but with the revenue they pull in on an annual basis, they could/should be one of the teams flirting with a $300M budget. As a result, they're likely to outbid Detroit.
RHP Carlos Estévez
Spotrac Market Value: 3 years, $42M
Matchmaker Verdict: Texas Rangers
After finally getting out of Colorado, Carlos Estévez broke out in a big way in 2023.
He was an All-Star for the Angels, finishing July with a 1.88 ERA, five wins and 23 saves. And though he (and the Halos as a whole) imploded in August and September, he was back in a big way in 2024 with a 2.45 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 26 saves between Los Angeles and Philadelphia.
All told, his 57 saves over the past two seasons are good for ninth-best in the majors. Add a "sub-3.25 ERA" qualifier, and only Emmanuel Clase, Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias and Ryan Helsley logged more saves than Estévez.
Now it's time to get paid, and Texas sure looks like the most logical landing spot for him.
The Rangers have put in a fair amount of work on a bullpen that was ransacked by free agency, but they have yet to add anything close to a sure thing at closer. At the moment, it looks like Chris Martin would be the first man up for ninth-inning duties, and he has all of 14 saves in his nine-year MLB career.
Tanner Scott is the biggest name still out there, but the Rangers already have a payroll north of $200M for 2025, as well as five players slated for salaries north of $21M apiece in 2026. That could leave them reluctant to go all-in on for what might be an $80M bidding war.
Targeting Estévez—who does have a 0.81 ERA in 11 career road appearances against the Rangers, for whatever that's worth—might be their best option.
RHP Jack Flaherty
Spotrac Market Value: 3 years, $63M
Matchmaker Verdict: San Francisco Giants
Rōki Sasaki is the most coveted pitcher left on the board, but because he is beholden to international free agent rules, he's only going to sign for a fraction of a fraction of what he would get as a traditional, unrestricted free agent.
Aside from Sasaki, Jack Flaherty is the biggest name still out there, and by a wide margin.
There has been talk recently that he could be open to a shorter-term deal with opt-outs available, similar to what Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery signed very late last offseason.
By no means does that mean he'll come cheap, though. It just might be a two-year, $48M contract ($24M AAV) instead of the five-year, $115M contract ($23M AAV) that MLB Trade Rumors projected at the beginning of the offseason, or the $21M salary on a three-year deal that Spotrac has projected as his market value.
So, who's left that plausibly could make that much of an investment in the right-hander who had a remarkable bounce-back in 2024?
Perhaps the Giants, who missed out on Corbin Burnes and who made short-term, option-laden deals with both Snell and Matt Chapman last winter?
They opened last season with a $208M payroll and they're only at $173M, even after the recent signing of Justin Verlander. That means they theoretically have more than enough room to make it happen, and a planned six-man rotation might be for the best for them, given Verlander's age and the fact that neither Kyle Harrison nor Jordan Hicks has ever logged 125 innings pitched in a season.
A return to Detroit might also be in play, but the Tigers already have an estimated payroll $8M greater than where they opened last season and are arguably much more likely to spend big on Alex Bregman than Flaherty.
Beyond those two, the Mets and their limitless budget might be the only viable candidate. But can they sign both Flaherty and Pete Alonso? And do they feel like they need Flaherty after already re-signing Sean Manaea and adding Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes and Griffin Canning this winter?
Probably not, which is why San Francisco seems to make the most sense.
IF Ha-Seong Kim
Spotrac Market Value: 4 years, $49M
Matchmaker Verdict: Seattle Mariners
Over the past four seasons, Ha-Seong Kim was one of the most valuable middle infielders in the bigs, worth 15.3 bWAR. During that same time, Jose Altuve amounted to 15.8 bWAR, so it's not outlandish to think this 29-year-old could have been a candidate for something like a six-year, $100M contract.
However, Kim's market is complicated by the fact that he is still recovering from labrum surgery and might miss the first month (or more) of the upcoming season.
Because of that, though, he could be the perfect fit/target for a Seattle team with little to no money to spend but a dire need for infield help.
In light of his injury status, maybe the Mariners could sell him on something like a three-year, $36M deal where he gets $8M in 2025 and $14M in each of the next two seasons—presumably able to pay HSK more in 2026 and 2027 once they're no longer devoting $30M to the combined 'force' of Mitch Haniger and Mitch Garver.
The Yankees have also been a reported suitor for Kim's services after the recent rumblings of a trade for Luis Arraez seemed to fizzle out in a hurry. And if it boils down to a bidding war between the Yankees and the Mariners, well, advantage Yankees.
Seattle might show more urgency, though, in the form of an extra year, or something with escalators or player options.
OF Jurickson Profar
Spotrac Market Value: 2 years, $26M
Matchmaker Verdict: San Diego Padres
The Padres have barely done anything this offseason, though that is likely a byproduct of both hoping to land Rōki Sasaki and having a lot of arbitration-eligible salaries that they needed to figure out.
The latter variable has been mostly resolved, now with known contract figures for each of Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez, Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon and Luis Campusano. Whether Michael King ends up getting $8.8M or $7.325M remains to be seen, but that's the final hurdle on that front.
As far as Sasaki goes, we'll all have an answer soon enough. The 2025 international amateur signing period begins on Jan. 15, and he has to sign by Jan. 23, or else his posting window closes and he returns to Chiba Lotte.
Once that's settled and the Padres know whether they need to invest in another starting pitcher in free agency, they might be able to turn all of their attention to re-signing Jurickson Profar, lest they enter a second consecutive season with a starting outfielder who has no MLB experience. (It worked out incredibly well with Jackson Merrill, but Tirso Ornelas might be a much different story.)
If, however, the Padres don't land Sasaki, end up forced to decide whether to spend on Profar or another pitcher in free agency and choose the latter route, Profar would make a lot of sense in the AL Central with either the Royals or the Tigers. Both of those teams have been kind of in the running for Anthony Santander, but Profar's price point would be much more agreeable for them.
OF Anthony Santander
Spotrac Market Value: 5 years, $89M
Matchmaker Verdict: Toronto Blue Jays
Like Jack Flaherty, there has been talk that Anthony Santander could be open to a shorter-term deal with options, hoping to strike it rich next winter instead if no team is willing to pay him his market value now.
However, at 30 years old, fresh off a 44-HR campaign and on a three-year stretch with 95 home runs and 460 out of a possible 486 games played, it's hard to imagine his value will increase or even hold steady. Now is the time for Santander to cash in, and it's likely he'll hold out for longer than Flaherty will before settling for a two-year contract.
The primary teams believed to still be in on Santander are the Blue Jays, Angels and Red Sox. We would throw the Giants in that mix, as well, particularly if they don't sign Flaherty or Alonso. Both the Royals and the Tigers could also be in play if it's more of a $50M bidding war than a $100M bidding war.
Toronto still feels like the spot, though.
The Jays desperately need some slugging after a season in which Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was their only player with 20 or more home runs, and both the LF and DH spots in their lineup are relatively up for grabs at the moment.
They do already have a $200M payroll, but they're also slated to lose about half of that payroll to free agency next winter and might as well jump all the way in on trying to win now.
RHP Rōki Sasaki
Matchmaker Verdict: Los Angeles Dodgers
As previously noted, Rōki Sasaki isn't exactly available to the highest bidder.
The maximum a team can offer the 23-year-old phenom is based upon its international bonus pool allotment, which is a signing bonus of less than $8M no matter who he chooses. And after that initial decision is made, he becomes just like any other prospect, likely to make the league minimum in each of 2025-27 before becoming arbitration-eligible for 2028-30.
So, truly, every team could be in play here, at least from the perspective of financial constraints.
However, everyone seems to believe it's a two-horse race between the Dodgers and the Padres, with the Dodgers still feeling like the favorite.
Impressive as he has been over the past four years with Chiba Lotte, Sasaki has only averaged a little over 100 innings pitched per season and might prefer/need to sign with a team that isn't banking on him making 30 starts to save its rotation.
And between the Dodgers and Padres, it's definitely the Dodgers who would be perfectly content to ease Sasaki into the majors, with so many options already in their starting rotation.
It's a frustrating Catch-22 for fans of any team other than the Dodgers, in which the team that least needs him—moreover, a team that is already on track to pay a luxury tax bill of more than $100M—is probably the best fit for him. But between that pitching depth and the fact that Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are on the roster, Los Angeles is probably where he ends up.
The wild card that could swing things in San Diego's favor, though, is the relationship that Sasaki has with Yu Darvish, who is signed with the Padres through 2028.
We've already seen some unexpected X-factors play a huge role in big free agency signings this winter—Yankees not giving Juan Soto a private box for home games; Corbin Burnes wanting to be close to family in Arizona—and pitching alongside Darvish reasonably could be the deciding factor for Sasaki.
RHP Max Scherzer
Spotrac Market Value: 1 year, $15M
Matchmaker Verdict: Detroit Tigers
Justin Verlander signed a one-year, $15M deal with the San Francisco Giants, and his fellow older-than-40, three-time Cy Young recipient is likely destined for the exact same contract.
Not necessarily with the Giants, of course, though that is a plausible landing spot.
As previously noted with Jack Flaherty, if any team could use a six-man rotation due to questions of durability, it's the Giants. And it'd be fun to have Scherzer and Verlander team up one last time.
But rather than joining a seventh unique franchise, the best move for Scherzer might be a return to where he first became a star.
Aside from signing Alex Cobb to a one-year, $15M deal, Detroit has done nothing this offseason to address the fact that its rotation was 'Tarik Skubal or Bust' over the final two months of last season. The Tigers do have high hopes for rookie Jackson Jobe and might get healthier seasons out of both Casey Mize and Reese Olson, but we did rather expect this team to be more aggressive than it has been thus far this winter.
Whether Scherzer has enough left in the tank to actually be worth $15M is a great big unknown, but the risk/reward is worth it.
The prospect of Skubal and Scherzer making back-to-back starts against the Yankees to close out the first homestand of the season would have Detroit buzzing in April to a degree that hasn't been seen since probably the last time Mad Max was on the roster.
LHP Tanner Scott
Spotrac Market Value: 4 years, $66M
Matchmaker Verdict: Los Angeles Angels
Over the past two seasons, Tanner Scott has been magnificent.
Among the 286 pitchers who have logged at least 110 innings pitched—mostly starters, but a decent number of relievers—Scott's 2.53 FIP since the beginning of 2023 ranks third in the majors, behind only Tarik Skubal (2.35) and Paul Skenes (2.44).
That's in spite of a 3.6 BB/9 rate that is kind of high for a closer, but also a whole lot better than the 5.8 mark he had posted across his first six seasons in the big leagues.
Now that he seems to have his control under...well...control, he's one of the best relievers out there, blowing just two saves in 2024 while racking up 22 saves and 11 holds.
Scott has also made six relief appearances in the postseason over the past two years, posting a line of 5.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 K. (He even kept all three of his inherited runners from scoring.)
Add it all up, and he just might be the highest-salaried reliever in the big leagues on his new contract, which does make it tough to pinpoint a landing spot.
The Yankees were arguably the most likely spot for Scott heading into the offseason, but they traded for Devin Williams and already have a payroll of nearly $300M.
The Phillies and Blue Jays both addressed their closer vacancies and probably don't have 'Scott money' left in their budget.
The Red Sox signed Aroldis Chapman and have Liam Hendriks, so they're probably all set sans Kenley Jansen.
There has been talk lately of the Mets wanting him, but they're still working on re-signing Pete Alonso and already have the highest-paid reliever in Edwin Díaz—not that that would stop Steve Cohen.
The Angels might be the ones to get it done. They'll eventually be getting Robert Stephenson back from Tommy John surgery, but aside from him and Ben Joyce, there's not much in that bullpen. And while they presently have an estimated payroll of $186M, they should have a decent amount of spending room left in that big-market budget. It's really just a question of whether they're more likely to make a splash for Scott or Anthony Santander.
Read 54 Comments
Download the app for comments Get the B/R app to join the conversation