Jimmy Butler Jeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images

The 5 Most Overrated Trade Targets Ahead of 2025 NBA Trade Deadline

Andy Bailey

The 2024-25 campaign could provide us with one of the more interesting NBA trade seasons in recent memory.

It's our first year with the new CBA's full array of onerous restrictions (like the inability for teams above the second apron to aggregate outgoing salaries). It could feature multiple big names who've made All-Star teams. And with the amount of parity in the middle of the league, it would be easy for teams to talk themselves into being buyers.

But at least for now, there may not be many players available who can push a team from solid to contender or from contender to title lock. In fact, a few of the more recognizable names you've seen floating around in the rumor mill may not be able to provide the impact that their hypothetical prices suggest.

Those players are the subjects of today's exercise, which is one heavily influenced by subjectivity. It's difficult to measure just how overrated an individual player is, but the amount of buzz they're currently receiving is certainly a factor. That, in contrast to what each is likely to do going forward, is another consideration.

With that, numbers and plenty of opinions as our guide, these are the most overrated trade targets of 2025 (for now).

Zach LaVine

Zach LaVine Jeff Dean/Getty Images

This is a very interesting trade market. The best illustration of that may be Zach LaVine.

As recently as this past offseason, the Chicago Bulls were reportedly trying to give him away. They might even have been willing to attach a first-round pick to make that happen.

LaVine is undoubtedly talented, but he's also likely reached his ceiling, and he's on a huge contract. He's owed $46.0 million next season and has a $49.0 million player option in 2026-27.

So, how can he possibly be considered an overrated trade target now? Well, that largely comes courtesy of rumors from earlier this season that suggested the Denver Nuggets were interested in trading Michael Porter Jr. for him.

In a vacuum, you can probably argue that LaVine is the better individual player. But the gap isn't huge, if there even is one. And for a team that already has three ball-handlers in Nikola Jokić, Jamal Murray and Russell Westbrook, LaVine's on-ball creation and volume scoring may not be as valuable as MPJ's shooting, size and rebounding.

At most, the improvement would be marginal. That probably isn't worth Porter and some portion of what's left of Denver's already minuscule stash of draft assets.

Of course, LaVine might make more sense for other suitors. At the very least, his 23.3 points, 4.5 assists, 3.3 threes and 44.4 three-point percentage should end the notion that Chicago would have to attach sweeteners to get off his contract.

But that contract still has to be considered. LaVine's injury history is a bit of a concern, too. And as he ages into his 30s (he crosses that threshold in March), his already below-average defense isn't likely to improve.

Jonathan Kuminga

Jonathan Kuminga Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images

Jonathan Kuminga is 6'8", one of the bounciest athletes in the NBA and barely 22 years old. There's still reason to be intrigued by his upside.

Since the Golden State Warriors have been one of the league's most underwhelming teams this season, they've been attached to just about every trade rumor. By extension, Kuminga has as well. With the exception of their future draft picks, he's probably their most valuable and realistically movable asset.

But Kuminga will also be a restricted free agent this summer. If he really does want a contract that pays him an average of $35 million annually (as he reportedly does), teams should be wary of giving up real value for him.

Kuminga is a career 34.2 percent three-point shooter with a low assist rate, steal rate and block rate. If he maintains his barely-above-average box plus/minus, this will be his first season in the black in that catch-all metric.

If you look at players with similar statistical profiles through their age-22 seasons, you get a mixed bag that includes encouraging names like Josh Hart and former teammate Klay Thompson and less exciting ones like Mickaël Piétrus and Tracy Murray.

Brandon Ingram

Brandon Ingram Jeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images

Brandon Ingram presents sort of a mix of the issues that come with LaVine and Kuminga.

He's similar to LaVine in that he may have already hit his ceiling and typically needs the ball in his hands to be effective. And he's similar to Kuminga in that he'll hit free agency with some dubious expectations of his next contract this summer.

Ingram reportedly wants $50 million per year going forward, but he hasn't proven to be worth that.

Ingram is often injured. And though his basic numbers (21.1 points, 5.6 assists, 5.2 rebounds and 1.6 threes per game) over the last two seasons sound solid, he's long been a below-average shooter and isn't as impactful on defense as his length suggests he should be.

If a team can acquire him without giving up any long-term assets and is OK with him being a few-month rental, that's one thing. But giving up a pick or even a young player for Ingram's next contract negotiations and his late-'90s, early-2000s game would be a mistake.

He can make some team better, but not dramatically so.

Bradley Beal

Bradley Beal Michael Hickey/Getty Images

There's some question about whether Bradley Beal should even be here at all. He has a no-trade clause that he's yet to discuss waiving. Whether he can even be anyone's trade target is entirely up to him.

Even if he did signal a willingness to waive his no-trade clause, there are real questions about whether he'd be worth much real value in a trade.

Beal is already 31. He has a long (and growing) injury history. And though his decline in basic production has a lot to do with playing alongside Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, his plummeting box plus/minus suggests there's more to it than that.

Beal can still be a solid floor spacer, but his new team would likely have to talk him into taking fewer mid-range jumpers and playing more dedicated defense. That's a lot to ask of a team that would also pay him north of $50 million a year through 2026-27 (when he has a $57.1 million player option).

Despite those issues, Beal has suddenly become a fixture in the trade rumor mill, mainly because of our final player's apparent insistence on winding up with Beal's current team.

Jimmy Butler

Jimmy Butler Brennan Asplen/Getty Images

About a year-and-a-half after the Miami Heat looked to reap the rewards of Damian Lillard's desire to wind up there, they may be on the other end of that equation with Jimmy Butler.

According to ESPN's Kendrick Perkins, the Phoenix Suns might even be ready to offer Butler a lucrative extension after trading for him.

However, the Suns are already upside down on multiple investments over the last few seasons. They're below .500 with three massive contracts, several role players who haven't made them a contender and their future draft assets almost entirely spent.

Sending what's left (which is just Beal, since Phoenix is over the second apron, and a 2031 first-round pick) to remain an old, top-heavy and injury-prone team wouldn't be wise.

Although Butler may make more sense for other suitors, we've already seen how uncomfortable he can make things when he's on a team he doesn't want to play for. This isn't the first time he's played that card, either.

If any team other than the Suns acquires Butler, it will have to worry about that, his potential free agency (he has a player option for 2025-26), his age (he turns 36 before next season) and his injury history.

Giving up a big haul for him would come with plenty of risk.

   

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