Bleacher Report

Bleacher Report's 2025 NFL Wild Card Weekend Playoff Picks

BR NFL Staff

Many bettors raise the stakes for NFL playoff games. That being so, our experts feel the pressure of postseason football.

Bleacher Report's NFL expert panel, which includes analysts Brad Gagnon, Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski, and Maurice Moton, along with editors Wes O'Donnell, Ian Hanford, and Vince Michelino from B/R Betting, is pleased with its regular-season results.

All of the panelists finished .500 or better, and they hit on 55 percent of their consensus picks.

Enough about past outcomes, though. Let's break down Wild Card Weekend.

The B/R crew agreed on a consensus for five out of the six games and sided with two underdogs.

O'Donnell, who finished with the best record among our experts, kicked off the weekend with a lone-wolf pick.

ATS Standings

1. O'Donnell: 149-115-8

2. Hanford: 145-119-8

3. Sobleski: 143-121-8

T-4. Davenport: 141-123-8

T-4. Moton: 141-123-8

6. Michelino: 137-127-8

7. Knox: 135-129-8

8. Gagnon 132-132-8

Consensus picks: 128-95-6 (9-3-2)

Lines are from DraftKings as of Wednesday, Jan. 8, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by TeamRankings.

Minnesota Vikings (14-3) at Los Angeles Rams (10-7)

Rams QB Matthew Stafford Brooke Sutton/Getty Images

DK Line: Minnesota -2.5

In Week 8, the Los Angeles Rams beat the Minnesota Vikings 30-20 at home. The referees missed a facemask infraction late in the game, but the Vikings needed a late touchdown drive to potentially tie up the score anyway.

The Rams pressured Sam Darnold in that contest, sacking him three times, and limited the Vikings' explosive plays over the top. Los Angeles may have the blueprint to slow down Minnesota's ninth-ranked scoring offense.

However, Sobleski picked the Vikings to flip the script on the Rams in this Monday Night Football matchup.

"When the Vikings traveled to Los Angeles Rams in October, Sean McVay and Co. emerged victorious. Aside from the Detroit Lions, the Rams are the only team to have beaten Minnesota so far this season. An asterisk needs to be placed on that win, though.

"The game was on Thursday Night Football, four days after the Vikings faced the Lions. Meanwhile, the Rams hosted the Las Vegas Raiders the previous Sunday. Los Angeles caught Minnesota at exactly the right time.

"Many will bet that history can repeat itself after the Vikings lost to the Lions in Week 18, whereas the Rams got to rest their stars. But the Vikings, who were clearly the better squad throughout the season, now have extra time to prepare with the game being on Monday.

"Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell knows McVay as well as anyone in the game. It's difficult to envision the Vikings faltering the same way twice."

Predictions

Davenport: Rams

Gagnon: Rams

Hanford: Rams

Knox: Vikings

Michelino: Rams

Moton: Rams

O'Donnell: Rams

Sobleski: Vikings

ATS Consensus: Rams +2.5

Score Prediction: Rams 31, Vikings 30

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Denver Broncos (10-7) at Buffalo Bills (13-4)

Bills QB Josh Allen Rich Gagnon/Getty Images

DK Line: Buffalo -8.5

Final Score: Bills 31, Broncos 7

The Buffalo Bills are heavy favorites over the Denver Broncos, who have exceeded expectations with rookie quarterback Bo Nix at the helm. After a win over the Kansas City Chiefs backups, Denver will face arguably its toughest opponent of the 2024 campaign.

With that said, the Broncos are one of three teams with a league-leading 12-5 record ATS. They've only lost by more than eight points once, against the Baltimore Ravens (41-10).

The Broncos could hang with quality opponents, but like the Ravens, the Bills may be too far out of their league on a competitive level.

"I had to pare this down from nearly 500 words as I realized I was trying to convince myself which team to pick," O'Donnell said. "So, here's what matters. The Bills haven't lost their opening-round playoff game since Josh Allen's postseason debut five years ago.

"The Broncos allowed only 18.3 points per game this season, the third-best mark leaguewide. But they were 1-7 against teams with a winning record this season, not including the Week 18 victory over the Chiefs' backups. An 8.5-point line feels like a lot, but seven of eight panelists are on Buffalo for a reason.

"Even if the Bills aren't dominant offensively, they should be able to force and/or capitalize on Denver turnovers and/or mistakes, particularly late in the game. Whether via a runaway Allen performance or an opportunistic team effort, the Bills are more than capable of covering a two-score spread at home as they jump-start their Super Bowl run."

Predictions

Davenport: Bills

Gagnon: Bills

Hanford: Bills

Knox: Bills

Michelino: Broncos

Moton: Bills

O'Donnell: Bills

Sobleski: Bills

ATS Consensus: Bills -8.5

Score Prediction: Bills 30, Broncos 20

Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

Eagles RB Saquon Barkley Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

DK Line: Philadelphia -4.5

Final Score: Eagles 22, Packers 10

The Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers squared off in Brazil for their season opener. The Eagles trailed through most of the first half in that game but slowed down the Packers offense in the second half and pulled away for a 34-29 victory.

Looking back at that first matchup on a neutral field, bettors may be quick to lay points with the Eagles, but they should pump the brakes just a bit. During the regular season, Philadelphia went only 4-4 ATS at home. Furthermore, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has missed the team's last two games, and he's still in the NFL's concussion protocol.

On a positive note, Philadelphia waived quarterback Ian Book on Tuesday, which suggests Hurts will suit up on Sunday. Moton believes Hurts will be available for this matchup and will find his groove in a potent offense.

"Hurts has been going through concussion protocol for nearly three weeks, which raises a major concern for the Eagles offense even if he's ready to play on Sunday," Moton said. "He practiced Wednesday for the first time in two weeks. He will probably have to knock off some rust, which could lead to a slow start for Philadelphia's offense.

"The Eagles are accustomed to slow offensive starts, though. They're tied for 21st in first-quarter scoring (3.6 points). But as the game progresses, Philadelphia should be able to build a lead. The Eagles scored the fourth-most points (14.8) in the second half during the regular season.

"Saquon Barkley, the 2024 rushing champion, will lead the Eagles offense while Hurts finds his rhythm. Hurts will connect with wideouts A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to close out the Packers to win by a touchdown."

Gagnon is skeptical of the Packers against top-tier opponents. He also sided with the Eagles.

"I do wish this were closer to three, because I think the Packers have enough in them to keep it close," Gagnon said. With that said, the Packers are not in Philadelphia's league. They lost all five of their games against the NFC's top three teams record-wise this season. Most of those games were close, but the Eagles have all the momentum here.

"The Eagles also won all three of their home games against playoff teams this season by an average of nine points per outing. They should take care of business in this spot."

Predictions

Davenport: Eagles

Gagnon: Eagles

Hanford: Eagles

Knox: Eagles

Michelino: Packers

Moton: Eagles

O'Donnell: Packers

Sobleski: Eagles

ATS Consensus: Eagles -4.5

Score Prediction: Eagles 28, Packers 23

Washington Commanders (12-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (left) and WR Terry McLaurin (right) Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

DK Line: Tampa Bay -3.5

Final Score: Commanders 23, Buccaneers 20

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Washington Commanders 37-20 in the first matchup between these teams in Week 1, but that was before rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels broke out against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3.

Now, Daniels has some experience and four game-winning drives on his resume. He should be able to move the ball through the air against the Buccaneers' 29th-ranked pass defense.

Despite Daniels' favorable matchup, Knox picked the Buccaneers to cover in a shootout.

"It's cliche to say this game could go either way, but that's how this one feels. Both teams feature dynamic offenses and defenses that can disappear for long stretches. This one's set up to be an offensive track meet, which means that it'll probably be an unexpectedly defensive game, of course.

"Baker Mayfield and the Bucs have the edge in postseason experience, though I actually trust Jayden Daniels and the Commanders to make fewer mistakes. I keep coming back to Tampa's ability to run the football. Washington is a strong running team as well, but offensive coordinator Liam Coen has Tampa's ground game humming on another level.

"The Commanders, who rank 28th in yards per carry allowed, have been vulnerable against the run all season. That's the matchup within the game that could ultimately decide this one. The hook does concern me, but I'll back the home team in what I expect to be the best game of Sunday's slate."

Predictions

Davenport: Buccaneers

Gagnon: Commanders

Hanford: Commanders

Knox: Buccaneers

Michelino: Commanders

Moton: Commanders

O'Donnell: Buccaneers

Sobleski: Commanders

ATS Consensus: Commanders +3.5

Score Prediction: Buccaneers 34, Commanders 30

Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at Houston Texans (10-7)

Chargers QB Justin Herbert (left) and HC Jim Harbaugh (right) Ian Maule/Getty Images

DraftKings Line: Los Angeles -3

Final Score: Texans 32, Chargers 12

The Los Angeles Chargers are the lower seed, but they're favored on the road in their wild-card matchup with the Houston Texans.

The Texans struggled late in the season, dropping two of their last three games while averaging only 14.7 points. They also lost wideout Tank Dell, who suffered a season-ending leg injury. Based on those factors, this line seems appropriate.

The Chargers should travel well to Houston. They field the league's No. 1 scoring defense. Running back J.K. Dobbins is also a healthy complement to the budding connection between quarterback Justin Herbert and rookie wideout Ladd McConkey.

Moton highlighted a troubling trend with the Texans offense. He expects the Chargers to build and protect a healthy lead.

"This isn't the same Texans team that rose from the bottom of the AFC South to become a division winner last year," Moton said. "In 2023, they finished with the 13th-ranked scoring offense, led by Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud. This season, Houston has yet to score more than 23 points against a team with a winning record. That's not going to change against Los Angeles' No. 1-ranked scoring defense.

"Furthermore, the Chargers offense is back on the right track with Dobbins returning from a knee injury two weeks ago. They enter the postseason with the 11th-ranked scoring offense and the second-fewest turnovers (nine).

"Los Angeles should be able to pounce on a stagnant Houston squad and stay ahead by at least a touchdown with its stout defense."

Davenport agreed with Moton.

"Laying a field goal with a road team in the playoffs feels like asking for trouble. But these are two teams heading in opposite directions. The Texans got a win in Week 18 but lost the two contests before that—both against AFC playoff teams. The Chargers, on the other hand, have won three in a row, albeit against lesser opponents.

"With running back J.K. Dobbins back, the Bolts are a much better offensive football team than without him. Houston's offensive line has struggled to protect C.J. Stroud. And given how the quarterbacks have played this season, it's hard to dispute that Justin Herbert has been the better quarterback. Add in the Chargers' top-ranked scoring defense, Stroud's regression in 2024 and Houston's injury-ravaged wide receiver corps, and the Texans won't be repeating last year's success in the Wild Card Round."

Predictions

Davenport: Chargers

Gagnon: Chargers

Hanford: Chargers

Knox: Chargers

Michelino: Chargers

Moton: Chargers

O'Donnell: Texans

Sobleski: Chargers

ATS Consensus: Chargers -3

Score Prediction: Chargers 26, Texans 20

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at Baltimore Ravens (12-5)

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson Kara Durrette/Getty Images

DK Line: Baltimore -9.5

Final Score: Ravens 28, Steelers 14

The Pittsburgh Steelers have lost four consecutive games and failed to cover the spread in all but one of those contests, which includes a 34-17 road loss to the Baltimore Ravens.

Even more alarming for the Steelers from a betting perspective: They haven't scored more than 17 points during their losing streak. Quarterback Russell Wilson and wide receiver George Pickens haven't been on the same page in recent weeks. Pickens hauled in only one of his six targets for zero yards last week.

Meanwhile, the Ravens have outscored their last four opponents 135-43. They may not have wideout Zay Flowers (knee) for this matchup, but Rashod Bateman has emerged as a reliable playmaker. Baltimore could also use more two-tight-end sets featuring Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely to attack Pittsburgh's 25th-ranked pass defense.

Hanford doesn't see how the slumping Steelers will keep pace with the red-hot Ravens.

"This is a ton of points for a rivalry matchup that Pittsburgh has mostly owned in recent years, but there's a real chance Baltimore blows the doors off the Steelers," Hanford said. "I have no faith in Russell Wilson finding his form again or for Arthur Smith to develop a cohesive game plan that doesn't inexplicably include toss plays to Cordarrelle Patterson, and it's not like the Steelers are suddenly going to make the right choice and turn the offense back over to Justin Fields.

"The latest season of Hard Knocks showed us that the Ravens know what to expect from Wilson every drive, as if things aren't challenging enough for Pittsburgh to move the ball consistently. Despite all of that, I also know the Steelers typically find a way to make these games more interesting than anyone expects, even if it makes no sense to anyone during or after the game. I just don't see it happening here, though.

"History is on Pittsburgh's side here, as Lamar Jackson is 2-4 as a starter in his career against his AFC North rival. But the Ravens went 4-0 ATS to close the season and won all of those games by at least 17 points, including a win over Pittsburgh.

"The Steelers typically find a way to muddy things up enough to stay close, but the vibe around this team couldn't be more off. Ravens win and send a message that this year's team may finally put its best foot forward in the postseason."

Predictions

Davenport: Steelers

Gagnon: Ravens

Hanford: Ravens

Knox: Ravens

Michelino: Steelers

Moton: Steelers

O'Donnell: Steelers

Sobleski: Ravens

ATS Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Steelers 16

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