As the offseason looms, the coaching carousel in college football has likely reached its end.

Perhaps a final change or two is lurking, but most conversations around head coaches are looking ahead to 2025. More specifically, those discussions are turning to which of them will be feeling extra pressure.

After all, the hot seat eventually comes for nearly everyone.

While our choices here are subjective, they're based on a coach's record—especially in 2024—and other meaningful context.

Financial considerations aren't a main piece of these selections, but they are mentioned where notable.

Lincoln Riley, USC

Lincoln Riley will be back in 2025 because USC has approximately 90 million reasons no to fire him. But at what point does a prohibitive buyout lose that adjective?

USC's Big Ten debut in 2024 was loaded with blown fourth-quarter leads and general disappointment.

The Trojans did end on a bright note by beating Texas A&M in the Las Vegas Bowl to avoid a losing record and scratch out a 7-6 mark. However, that finish was only so impactful. More than 20 players are transferring out, and USC dealt with a string of late-cycle decommitments from 5-star Jerome Myles and six other blue-chip players.

The looming double-edged sword is the 2025 schedule.

Opening the campaign with Missouri State, Georgia Southern, Purdue, Michigan State and Illinois may guide USC to a 5-0 start. But if the Trojans stumble early, the noise around Riley certainly could intensify as the difficulty of the slate heightens in October and beyond.

Brent Venables, Oklahoma

Meanwhile, Riley's successor at Oklahoma is also dealing with his fair share of struggles.

Similar to USC, the Sooners toiled through their conference debut in 2024. They got off to a 3-0 start but then imploded in SEC action, trudging to a 2-6 league and 6-6 overall record. The stunning late-season upset of Alabama bought Venables some goodwill, but a loss to Navy in the Armed Forces Bowl sent OU into the offseason on a sour note.

As with Riley, Venables' buyout made any conversation about his job security easier for OU. He would've been due nearly $45 million, in addition to the many millions owed for turning over the rest of the coaching staff.

So, the Sooners have instead bet on John Mateer.

After bringing in Washington State coordinator Ben Arbuckle to run the offense, OU snagged Wazzu's dual-threat quarterback. Venables knew he needed to spark a unit that averaged a measly 16.5 points in conference play, the second-worst mark in the SEC.

Though less costly, that is also an expensive gamble—and its outcome may determine if Venables sees the 2026 season in Norman.

Tony Elliott, Virginia

Tony Elliott was so close to avoiding this conversation.

After compiling a 6-16 record in his first two years at Virginia, he entered 2024 with the task of winning more games. The Cavaliers capitalized on a favorable early schedule and were 4-1 in the first week of October.

However, the competition level rose quickly from there. Those two victories to reach bowl eligibility looked like they'd be challenging to attain at that moment, and that's exactly how it played out. Virginia beat Pitt but otherwise dropped five of its last six games by 17-plus points, including a 20-point setback to rival Virginia Tech in the finale.

Losing is not the issue; being non-competitive is the problem.

The program has since landed quarterback Chandler Morris—most recently of North Texas and previously TCU—to oversee the offense in a critical year for Elliott, his fourth at UVA.

If that doesn't work as hoped, Virginia may be looking for a new head coach next offseason.

Luke Fickell, Wisconsin

After a hugely successful stint at Cincinnati, Luke Fickell seemed like an outstanding hire for Wisconsin. His plans—and the subsequent actions—to modernize the offense were perfectly sound on paper.

It just hasn't worked out on the field.

Wisconsin needed to upgrade its passing attack, yet the program has long been known for its success on the ground. Offensive coordinator Phil Longo brought with him an Air Raid system that presumably would bolster the Badgers' weakness and show plenty of respect to UW's run-focused tradition.

Even at QB, the Badgers pulled in two logical options for Longo. Tanner Mordecai excelled under SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee in 2022, and Tyler Van Dyke enjoyed his best season at Miami when Lashlee coordinated that Air Raid offense in 2021.

However, Mordecai fell short of expectations, Van Dyke missed most of 2024 due to an ACL injury, and Fickell fired Longo late in November.

Altogether, the Badgers are 13-13 in Fickell's two years and appear no closer to solving their offensive woes. They're revamping the roster with at least 18 incoming transfers as well.

The pressure on Fickell is rising in 2025.

Kenni Burns, Kent State

The first legitimately hot seat belongs to Kenni Burns.

Following the 2022 season, Sean Lewis left Kent State to join Deion Sanders' staff at Colorado as the offensive coordinator. The Golden Flashes turned to Burns, the assistant head coach/running backs coach at Minnesota.

The reality is that Kent State tends not to commit substantial money to the program. In its 63-year history, it has surpassed seven wins in only three seasons—and managed six victories in only 11 seasons, for that matter. This has never been a powerhouse.

However, Burns' records of 1-11 and 0-12 are unacceptable for a coach at any top-division school.

Making a bowl may not even be necessary for Burns. But the Golden Flashes—who just ranked last nationally in points scored and allowed per game—can't be an embarrassment again next season, either.

Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State

As with many pieces of life, follow the money.

When a coach agrees to a pay cut, it's fair to believe his proverbial seat is warming. Such is the case for Mike Gundy, who restructured his contract after Oklahoma State's worst season in two decades.

In the preseason AP poll, the Cowboys ranked 17th. They opened the campaign with three straight wins, too.

But after a tight loss to Utah, they unraveled in a shocking manner. Oklahoma State dropped nine consecutive games—all to Big 12 opponents—and closed a forgettable season with an appalling 52-0 shutout at Colorado. The program's 18-year bowl streak ended in inglorious fashion.

Again, losses are forgivable. Being embarrassed is tough to overlook.

Gundy oversaw OSU teams that reached the Big 12 Championship Game during the 2021 and 2023 seasons, so firing him would've been a hasty decision. If he generates more bad press and the Pokes stumble again in 2025, though, a change may be looming.

Mike Norvell, Florida State

Much like Gundy, Mike Norvell also agreed to a restructured contract in the wake of Florida State's horrendous season.

And what a miserable year it was.

Florida State posted a 13-0 record in 2023 before its controversial exclusion from the College Football Playoff. As their talented and senior-heavy roster moved to the NFL, the Norvell-led Seminoles leaned on the transfer portal to restock the team.

That strategy had worked previously, but it failed this time.

An upset at the hands of Georgia Tech in Dublin, Ireland, kickstarted the letdown. Following that 24-21 opening loss, the 'Noles did not crack 20 points against an FBS program for the rest of the season. They finished 2-10.

Norvell orchestrated FSU's return to prominence once. Whether he can repeat that ascent will shape his remaining tenure in Tallahassee.