At long last, we have four teams.
A season unlike any other in recent memory has given us a final four we can wrap our arms around. And last round, our picks wrapped their arms around giant bags of cash.
Four games, four picks, four winners. That's how things went in the quarterfinals at Locks of the Week.
Although we don't have as many games to pick from—and the rest of the bowl season is now complete—the importance of these games cannot be overstated.
Can we be perfect again? Let's find out.
Before we do, please know that Locks of the Week will cover the national championship in tremendous detail once we have a matchup. (We'll also be attending the game to take in the action in full.)
For now, though, let's get to work. Here's how we see the latest action unfolding.
For the latest spreads on futures and games, head to DraftKings.
Orange Bowl: Penn State (+2) vs. Notre Dame
When it comes to narratives, both programs have had their battles in recent years. Despite consistently delivering successful seasons, big breakthroughs have been hard to come by.
That will change for one program soon enough.
No team had a more complete win last round than Notre Dame. The Irish forced turnovers, returned a kickoff, flashed on offense and delivered on defense. It was a beautiful, ugly kind of win against Georgia, and that's precisely how they want it.
For Penn State, a team with similar traits, the victory over Boise State featured some of the same qualities. The defense did a superb job slowing down running back Ashton Jeanty. The offense showed plenty as well, especially in the run game.
In short, this matchup is delightful. Not just because one narrative will die, but because both teams are balanced and built completely differently at the same time.
Both teams can win in different ways, too. They're content to play in defensively charged matchups, much like they did last round. They can also compete in high-scoring matchups.
Penn State lost to Oregon 45-37 in the Big Ten Championship; Notre Dame conquered USC 49-35 in the team's regular-season finale.
While we likely won't get that kind of output in this game, it wouldn't shock to see points flow more freely than many expect. (Spoiler: We're also on the over.)
In terms of picking a side, well, that side is Penn State.
This isn't an easy decision. Notre Dame's defensive performance against Georgia makes it even more difficult. In that game, however, the Irish amassed just 244 yards of offense.
Granted, the Bulldogs have a great defense. Notre Dame also played ball control for a good chunk of the game.
In terms of explosiveness, though, the edge goes to Penn State. And although we likely won't know the true status of star defensive player Abdul Carter until game time, it doesn't matter.
Penn State wins a game that features more points than anticipated.
Penn State 27, Notre Dame 24.
Cotton Bowl: Ohio State (-5.5) vs. Texas
First, let's make something clear: Ohio State will not win this game by four touchdowns.
The blowout many envision—the kind of performance the Buckeyes have normalized in the playoff this year—is not coming this round.
It's easy to get swept up in the moment. Ohio State is playing like the team we expected to see before the season began, and the end result will be plenty of support. This, of course, is understandable.
We are creatures of the moment, and that moment currently belongs to this group.
The same can't be said for Texas, at least to the same degree, which needed a slew of meaningful plays—along with plenty of good fortune—to get past an Arizona State team many assumed it would dominate.
That sentiment, by its lonesome, is somewhat shortsighted. Arizona State deserves credit for mounting a comeback against the Longhorns. At the same point, give Texas credit for finding a way to stay alive.
Which leads us to a fascinating matchup between two teams overflowing with NFL players.
Defensively, Texas can hang in this game, even after allowing more than 500 yards last time out. It won't be able to contain Will Howard, Jeremiah Smith and the rest of this offense for 60 minutes, although there's no shame in that.
On the other side, the Ohio State pass rush, which has taken on new life in the playoff, could be an X-factor. Texas QB Quinn Ewers was excellent against ASU, but his mobility will be tested here. As will his ability to create under duress.
Perhaps most concerning about the Longhorns is the running game. Texas ran the ball 30 times for 53 yards against ASU, and that formula won't align against a team that has allowed the second fewest yards per carry all year.
The total in this game says this matchup will feature plenty of action, and it's difficult to argue against. While there are plenty of defensive stars—and many future stars on the Longhorns' sideline—offense will rule.
And Ohio State will get more of it.
This won't be the blowout many are expecting. Texas will hang for a while. It just won't be long enough.
Ohio State 35, Texas 24.
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