Although the 2024 season brought an expanded College Football Playoff, the championship tournament has reached a familiar stage.

Coming up next is the semifinals, the round in which the CFP previously began. Four programs enter with a chance to win a national title, but only two teams will advance to the coveted stage in Atlanta.

This year, the semis happen on back-to-back evenings—as opposed to consecutive time slots on a particular day.

Notre Dame and Penn State clashed Thursday, and the showdown between Ohio State and Texas follows on Friday.

Clear your calendars, my football friends.

As always, we have a prediction for each matchup, complete with viewing information and the stakes involved.

No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Texas

Stakes: Winner advances to CFP National Championship

When: Friday, Jan. 10 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) in Arlington, Texas

I told anyone who asked that I believed the winner of the Rose Bowl would take home the national title. After seeing how Ohio State smoked, controlled and annihilated top-ranked Oregon, I'm certainly not budging from that opinion.

So, yeah, sorry in advance, Texas fans.

For many weeks, I've trusted the Longhorns because of their defense—and I'm undoubtedly not alone in that regard. In the CFP, however, Texas has showed more vulnerability than is comforting before meeting a surging Ohio State offense in the Cotton Bowl.

Texas is a strong team, clearly. You don't reach the CFP semifinals without being that. Trying to run up the middle of the Horns defense is usually a foolish endeavor, and Quinn Ewers' best moments are still very good. Texas also has a version of home-field advantage here—at least through the lens of proximity, not necessarily ticket sales.

Nevertheless, if OSU matches how it's performed in the first two rounds of the playoff, especially on offense, this one might be lopsided. I'm not going that far, but Ohio State is a deserving favorite.

Prediction: Ohio State 27, Texas 20

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 6 Penn State

Stakes: Winner advances to CFP National Championship

When: Thursday, Jan. 9 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) in Miami Gardens, Fla.

If you yearn for the glory days of run-first offenses and physical defenses, the Orange Bowl is a dream matchup.

Notre Dame is second nationally at 6.1 yards per carry, and Penn State isn't far behind in 17th with 5.3 per attempt. Additionally, both teams have top-10 units in yards allowed per play (and per game) and scoring defense.

This is not quite smashmouth football, but it's in the neighborhood.

Given that context, a low-scoring game is a logical expectation—which, because I said that, expect a 45-40 barn-burner.

Seriously, if the defenses play as anticipated, the result will be decided at the margins; in particular, think red-zone efficiency and turnovers. Penn State has a slight edge in the former, while ND is more adept at creating takeaways. This clash is essentially a statistical wash.

I'm leaning toward Notre Dame because of a more versatile rushing attack with quarterback Riley Leonard, but I wouldn't blink if you prefer Penn State in such an even game.

Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Penn State 19

Editor's note: Notre Dame won 27-24, advancing to the national title game.