Welcome to that weird time of the MLB offseason when the biggest moves have already happened and spring training is still weeks away.

But lest anyone fret about a period of everlasting dullness, the rumor mill is still spinning.

The name of the game here is to make sense of the juicier recent whisperings concerning the trade and free-agent markets. Notably on the docket are whether Luis Arraez could end up in pinstripes, new suitors for Pete Alonso and the latest on Rōki Sasaki.

The focus is mostly on analyzing these rumors, though each step of the process will end with everyone's favorite sort of bang: a prediction.

We have eight rumors to get to, starting with three related to potential trades.

Is It Red Sox or Bust for Nolan Arenado?

Sources: Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam of MassLive.com and Katie Woo of The Athletic

According to Cotillo and McAdam, the Boston Red Sox are "a preferred destination—if not the preferred destination—for Arenado" on the trade market. Woo otherwise reports that the Red Sox are the veteran's "last chance to get dealt."

Analysis

Just as a reminder, where Arenado wants to play matters.

The 33-year-old's contract contains a full no-trade clause, and he's already invoked it to block a trade from the St. Louis Cardinals to the Houston Astros. They're now off the board after shoring up their infield corners, and the non-Boston teams among Arenado's initial preferences don't come off as particularly realistic.

Less clear is how interested the Red Sox are, though recent comments from chief baseball officer Craig Breslow make it sound as if Rafael Devers isn't necessarily in Arenado's way at third base:

The Red Sox are certainly a fit for Arenado in other ways, not least of which because of how his right-handed pull power would play at Fenway Park.

At the same time, Alex Bregman remains out there for the Red Sox in free agency. He's also a pulled-fly-ball hitter, and one who could hypothetically fill an opening at second base. And in Alex Cora and Walker Buehler, he has two vocal fans in Boston.

There is also the matter of Arenado's trade value after back-to-back years of diminishing returns. It's clearly low, yet the Cardinals have already rejected one bad-contact-swap type of offer for him. The question is how firmly committed they are to that bit.

Prediction: Arenado will end up in Boston, with the Cardinals eating some money to enrich their prospect return.

Is Luis Arráez a Future Yankee?

Source: Jeff Passan of ESPN

Per Passan, the Yankees are discussing Luis Arráez with the San Diego Padres and had also inquired with the Los Angeles Dodgers about Gavin Lux before he went to Cincinnati.

Analysis

That the Yankees are considering second basemen implies that they like Jazz Chisholm Jr. at third base. And they should, as he ranked fourth among third basemen in Outs Above Average last year despite playing only 400.1 innings there.

For his part, Arráez needs no introduction as the best pure hitter in MLB. He's won three straight batting titles, and he famously went 141 plate appearances without a strikeout in 2024.

However, one catch here concerns money.

Arráez is projected to make $14.6 million in 2025, and it's doubtful that San Diego would do a bad-contract-swap a la the Marcus Stroman-based offer that the Yankees made to the Cardinals for Arenado. There isn't much point in trading Arráez unless it gets the Padres under the $241 million luxury tax threshold for 2025.

Otherwise, Arráez is a notoriously poor defender who would threaten to downgrade the Yankees' defense even if Chisholm was kept at third. The Yankees could probably live with that, but they shouldn't want to after poor defense helped doom them in the World Series.

Besides, it's possible the Yankees have already moved on. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported Monday that Arráez is "not seen as a fit" for the Yankees.

Prediction: Arráez stays in San Diego and the Yankees get someone else to play the keystone.

Will Luis Castillo Replace Corbin Burnes in Baltimore?

Source: Jon Morosi of MLB Network

Morosi says that the Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners have "talked before and in recent days" about a trade involving Luis Castillo.

Analysis

Though this report is coming after Baltimore's deals with Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano, it isn't surprising. As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported, those did not take the Orioles out of the pitching market. They specifically need a No. 1 to fill the shoes that Corbin Burnes vacated when he signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Castillo, 32, is past his expiration date as an ace. He was effectively a league-average pitcher in 2024, wherein his whiff rate landed in the 53rd percentile.

Paradoxically, though, Castillo's fastball remains one of the most valuable pitches in MLB. And he's nothing if not a workhorse, as he's made at least 30 starts five times in eight seasons.

The bigger holdup here may concern Castillo's cost, in more ways than one.

Castillo is owed $24.2 million in each of the next three seasons, and he likely doesn't have much surplus value. That could be why the Orioles are interested, as Rosenthal says they're disinclined to trade Jackson Holliday, Colton Cowser, Jordan Westburg, Heston Kjerstad or Coby Mayo.

Yet for their part, the Mariners are said to be "frustrated" with what teams have been willing to offer for Castillo. That scans, as Rosenthal had previously reported that they'll only move him if the deal makes them better now.

Prediction: Castillo does become an Oriole, but not for any of the names mentioned above.

Is It Down to the Tigers and Blue Jays for Alex Bregman?

Source: Jon Heyman of the New York Post on B/R Live

Heyman labeled the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays as Alex Bregman's "most likely" suitors, with the Red Sox as more of an "outside possibility."

Analysis

It's hard to believe that the Red Sox are merely an "outside possibility" in this race. As noted earlier, Bregman plain fits well in Boston. And with his asking price reportedly at six or seven years and $200 million, they might add him and still go below the luxury tax threshold.

With that said, Detroit and Toronto won't be easy to hold off if Boston does push for Bregman.

After failed pursuits of Shohei Ohtani last winter and Juan Soto more recently, the Blue Jays clearly have money to spend and a desire to land a star. Bregman would be a lesser score in this respect, but the club would certainly look better with him at third base.

As for the Tigers, Bregman and manager A.J. Hinch know each other from their time together in Houston. It also feels as if the buzz connecting them to Bregman has continued to build.

However, there is "a wide gap" between Bregman and the Tigers, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. He also notes that the New York Mets are "the most intriguing team" in the Bregman sweepstakes.

That will depend on whether they re-sign Pete Alonso, thus forcing Mark Vientos back to third base. But we'll get more into that shortly.

Prediction: The Blue Jays and Tigers make similar offers, but Bregman chooses Detroit.

Is Pete Alonso's Market Finally Heating Up?

Source: Bob Nightengale of USA Today

Per Nightengale, the Blue Jays and Red Sox are among eight teams showing "at least some interest" in Pete Alonso.

Analysis

This one actually is surprising, as it wasn't long ago that Mark Feinsand of MLB.com characterized Alonso as "a man without a market."

This should be hard to square with how Alonso has averaged 43 home runs and 112 runs batted in throughout his career, but he's also coming off a career-low .788 OPS in 2024. And the aging curve for right-right first basemen is not great.

According to Nightengale, Alonso and agent Scott Boras are looking at Prince Fielder's nine-year, $214 million contract. Teams, however, don't want to go beyond the $160 million range.

It is nonetheless notable that suitors are starting to come out of the shadows. In addition to the Blue Jays and Red Sox, other named suitors include the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Angels.

There's also, of course, the incumbent Mets. They've been open about wanting the 30-year-old slugger back, and in what should be a surprise to nobody, they have the budget for him:

Nightengale's reporting indicates that the Mets will only do a shorter deal with Alonso. Rather than stubbornness, that comes off as an accurate reading of his market. Even if he does have eight suitors, it's hard to imagine him scoring his Fielder-like dream deal.

You know what else is hard to imagine? The Mets getting outbid on a guy whom they truly want.

Prediction: Alonso returns to the Mets on a five-year deal.

Do the Blue Jays Have an Inside Track at Anthony Santander?

Source: Ari Alexander of KPRC 2

In reporting on Anthony Santander's market, Alexander notes that the Blue Jays have an offer in to the slugging switch-hitter.

Analysis

What Toronto has offered Santander is not clear, but we do know what he is looking for.

As Heyman reported in December, the 30-year-old is looking to parlay his 44-homer season for the Baltimore Orioles into a five-year deal. That tracks with what B/R's Tim Kelly predicted at the outset of the offseason.

On the down side, the market has cooled a bit in recent weeks. On the plus side, the Blue Jays are perhaps the best bet to push aggressively for Santander.

They badly need a bat for an offense that has gone from averaging 5.2 runs in 2021 to just 4.1 in 2024. Alonso and Santander are the biggest left standing, and the former is an imperfect fit for Toronto because of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s standing at first base.

That leaves Santander as the ideal bat for the Blue Jays. And as we know, this team truly wants a star. Perhaps enough to overpay for one, even.

Competition for Santander is there, of course. The Tigers and Angels are also in on him, and neither has to worry about selling him on going north of the border where taxes are higher.

Still, one must consider the law of averages. If the Blue Jays keep taking big swings, surely one is bound to connect.

Prediction: Santander becomes a Blue Jay on a five-year deal.

Will Jack Flaherty Get a 5-Year Deal?

Source: Will Sammon and Katie Woo of The Athletic

According to Sammon and Woo, Jack Flaherty is "believed to be seeking at least a five-year deal" in free agency.

Analysis

For his part, Flaherty can hardly be blamed for wanting a five-year deal. He's fresh off a season in which he posted a 3.17 ERA and won a World Series ring. He's also not tied to draft pick compensation.

Yet initial projections for Flaherty had him more in the four-year range, with Kelly even projecting a three-year deal. There is plenty of volatility in the 29-year-old's track record, after all, and even Burnes didn't get what he wanted from Arizona.

The market for Flaherty nonetheless seems to be in a good place.

According to Feinsand, the Orioles are "a logical candidate" for the right-hander. Also in the mix are the Blue Jays, Giants, Tigers and Chicago Cubs.

Each club makes sense in its own way, but the Orioles and Giants more than the others. The former has a Burnes-sized hole in its rotation that needs filling, while the latter made a run at Burnes before he chose the Diamondbacks.

The Blue Jays also pushed hard for Burnes, so they can't be ruled out either. It's just that with them, spending big money on anything other than an impact hitter would be malpractice.

In any case, Flaherty would seem to have a strong enough market to get some form of a five-year contract.

Prediction: Flaherty ends up with the Giants on a three-year deal with a two-year player option.

Is It a 2-Team Race for Rōki Sasaki?

Sources: Mark Feinsand of MLB.com and Bob Nightengale of USA Today

Both Feinsand and Nightengale tab the Dodgers and Padres as the favorites to sign Rōki Sasaki, though Nightengale's report comes with a twist.

Analysis

Though the Dodgers have long been the de facto favorites for Sasaki, Nightengale writes that the Padres have "emerged as the new choice among executives."

It initially seemed as if the Dodgers would not be denied in the race for the 23-year-old, with Joel Sherman of the New York Post writing in November that they were "viewed as everything from a powerful favorite to all but having him secured already."

Yet Sasaki's agent, Joel Wolfe, didn't want to hear that. And as noted by Jim Bowden of The Athletic, there's at least one good reason for Sasaki not to choose the Dodgers: Sharing the spotlight with fellow Japanese stars Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto may not help his endorsement prospects.

With the Padres, Sasaki would become instantly become arguably the brightest star in their rotation. It may be no small bonus that he'd share said rotation with Yu Darvish, who has already influenced Sasaki's career.

Then again, it's not like these are Sasaki's only two options.

He's received interest from 20 teams and met with seven of them, and Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that Sasaki has spoken with "at least" one other team. And from what we know about his preferences, we know that market size and sharing a roster with other Japanese players do not matter.

One way or another, don't expect Sasaki's decision before January 20.

Prediction: Sasaki takes the obvious route and becomes a Dodger.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.