With less than 10 weeks remaining until Selection Sunday for the 2025 men's NCAA tournament, it is looking increasingly inevitable that the SEC is going to produce multiple No. 1 seeds among what should be at least a dozen bids.

Auburn and Tennessee continue to reign supreme as the clear top two overall seeds, and there's a good case to be made that Alabama ought to be No. 3 overall right now. We presently have Iowa State and Duke on the No. 1 seed line, but it's close. And all of Kentucky, Mississippi State and Florida aren't far behind.

Before we dive into this latest projection of the field of 68, two noteworthy updates to share in regard to how we're approaching things now as opposed to the first two months of the season.

First, the 31 automatic bids for projected conference champion are now based on conference standings. This resulted in a few unusual selections among the one-bid leagues in which the favorite suffered an early league loss. However, at least there aren't (presently) any "bid thieves" from the five major conferences.

Second, the RES metrics on the team sheets (KPI, SOR and WAB) are carrying more and more weight with each passing day, which means the QUAL metrics (KenPom, BPI and Torvik) aren't quite the heavy lifters that they were up until now. That isn't to say those predictive metrics are irrelevant. Far from it. But a great RES average can make up for a weak QUAL average, while the inverse isn't really true anymore. (Sorry, Texas Tech and others.)

[If you have any questions on what goes into the bracketology process or want to argue about a certain team's spot (or lack of a spot) in the projected field, you can find me begrudgingly on Twitter and occasionally on Bluesky.]

With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some brief commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, we have a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.

The Projected Bracket

EAST REGION (Newark)

Milwaukee, WI
1. Iowa State vs. 16. Southern / Navy
8. Nebraska vs. 9. Georgia

Seattle, WA
4. Texas A&M vs. 13. Lipscomb
5. Michigan State vs. 12. New Mexico / Saint Mary's

Providence, RI
3. Florida vs. 14. Northern Colorado
6. Pittsburgh vs. 11. Arizona State

Raleigh, NC
2. Alabama vs. 15. Ohio
7. Wisconsin vs. 10. St. Bonaventure

MIDWEST REGION (Indianapolis)

Lexington, KY
1. Tennessee vs. 16. Youngstown State
8. Ohio State vs. 9. Louisville

Seattle, WA
4. Oregon vs. 13. UTEP
5. Utah State vs. 12. McNeese

Wichita, KS
3. Kansas vs. 14. South Alabama
6. Purdue vs. 11. North Carolina / Arkansas

Cleveland, OH
2. Marquette vs. 15. Norfolk State
7. Ole Miss vs. 10. Maryland

SOUTH REGION (Atlanta)

Lexington, KY
1. Auburn vs. 16. Kansas City / Southeast Missouri State
8. Baylor vs. 9. San Diego State

Providence, RI
4. Connecticut vs. 13. Charleston
5. UCLA vs. 12. Samford

Wichita, KS
3. Mississippi State vs. 14. UMass Lowell
6. West Virginia vs. 11. Washington State

Milwaukee, WI
2. Illinois vs. 15. UNC Asheville
7. Clemson vs. 10. Vanderbilt

WEST REGION (San Francisco)

Raleigh, NC
1. Duke vs. 16. Central Connecticut
8. St. John's vs. 9. Dayton

Denver, CO
4. Memphis vs. 13. Grand Canyon
5. Oklahoma vs. 12. Bradley

Denver, CO
3. Houston vs. 14. Columbia
6. Gonzaga vs. 11. UC San Diego

Cleveland, OH
2. Kentucky vs. 15. Marist
7. Michigan vs. 10. Arizona

Ranking the No. 1 Seeds

1. Auburn Tigers (13-1, NET: 1, RES: 1.3, QUAL: 1.0)

2. Tennessee Volunteers (14-0, NET: 3, RES: 4.3, QUAL: 4.0)

3. Iowa State Cyclones (12-1, NET: 5, RES: 8.3, QUAL: 5.3)

4. Duke Blue Devils (12-2, NET: 2, RES: 6.3, QUAL: 2.3)

5. Alabama Crimson Tide (12-2, NET: 9, RES: 4.0, QUAL: 7.3)

6. Marquette Golden Eagles (13-2, NET: 11, RES: 5.0, QUAL: 11.3)

For the third consecutive week, the projected No. 1 seed line looks exactly the same.

Auburn at No. 1 overall remains simply indisputable. It's frankly a bit shocking that there is any metric (KPI) that has the Tigers at No. 2 instead of No. 1, but that doesn't make this disputable in the slightest. Auburn has six Quad 1 wins, kings of the neutral site during nonconference play. It also opened its SEC slate with a no-sweat, 16-point victory over Missouri.

Tennessee at No. 2 overall should also be indisputable, particularly now that Drake, Florida and Oklahoma have all suffered a loss, leaving the Volunteers as the nation's lone undefeated team. They pummeled Arkansas by 24 in their SEC opener and have had just one game all season decided by fewer than 13 points—a two-point road win over Illinois that looks even better now than it did a week ago. If Tennessee wins at Florida and at Texas in the next seven days, that would open the door to a viable debate for the top spot.

For Nos. 3-6 on the overall seed list, though, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

Iowa State has just the one loss, that coming on a neutral floor by a razor-thin margin against Auburn. Duke has the best predictive metrics and the most wins (three) against the top half of Quad 1. Alabama thrived against one of the toughest nonconference slates in the nation. And Marquette has more Quad 1 wins (five) than any of the other three.

All four are worthy, and each had at least one mighty impressive victory in the past seven days. We're simply keeping the status quo for now, but Alabama tentatively could jump to the head of the pack if it wins road games against South Carolina and Texas A&M this week.

10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams

Fifth-to-Last In: Arizona State Sun Devils (10-3)—20-point home win; 20-point road loss; no real change here.

Fourth-to-Last In: North Carolina Tar Heels (9-6)—At least all six losses came in Quad 1A games.

Third-to-Last In: Arkansas Razorbacks (11-3)—Ugly loss at Tennessee, but it didn't hurt Hogs' resume.

Second-to-Last In: New Mexico Lobos (12-3)—OT win over Nevada gave Lobos enough to sneak in.

Last Team In: Saint Mary's Gaels (13-3)—So far, so good, sitting at 3-0 in WCC play.

****CUT LINE****

First Team Out: Indiana Hoosiers (12-3)—Wins over Rutgers and Penn State make Indiana intriguing again.

Second Team Out: Penn State Nittany Lions (12-3)—Tough loss to Indiana, but opportunity is at their doorstep.

Third Team Out: UCF Knights (10-3)—Would've been in if not for 51-point loss to Kansas.

Fourth Team Out: Cincinnati Bearcats (10-3)—Three losses despite one game played vs. NET Top 50.

Fifth Team Out: Drake Bulldogs (12-2)—Starting 0-2 in 2025 knocks previously unbeaten Drake out altogether.

ACC Summary

5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 4. Duke, 23. Pittsburgh, 27. Clemson, 35. Louisville, 43. North Carolina

Also Considered: SMU, Wake Forest

Biggest Change: Louisville leaps; SMU smashed

Louisville was 8-5 heading into the new year but didn't have anything close to a bad loss, blew out Indiana on a neutral floor, clipped West Virginia in overtime the following day and won by 14 at Florida State.

Basically, the Cardinals had all of the markings of a tournament-caliber team, but without the resume to match.

That changed in a large way this week, winning at home against North Carolina by 13 before going on the road and smoking Virginia by 20—while the previous wins over Indiana and West Virginia grew stronger, no less.

Granted, both contests were considerably closer than those final margins would have you believe. The UNC game was 70-69 with three minutes remaining, and the Cards were only up six with 10 minutes remaining against UVA.

Nevertheless, the end result was two convincing-looking Quad 2 wins for a team that is now—believe it or not—leading the ACC with five wins against the top two quadrants. And I don't care how down Virginia is this season, no one just waltzes into Charlottesville and leaves with a 20-point win. That hasn't happened since January 2011. That one is going to resonate with the selection committee, even from a Quad 2 position.

But while we're on the subject of ACC blowouts, SMU miserably failed its first big test as a new member of the conference, falling 89-62 at home against Duke on Saturday. No one expected the Mustangs to win that game, but at least putting up a fight sure would've been nice.

They'll play at 9-6 North Carolina on Tuesday night in a massive early bubble game.

Big 12 Summary

7 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 3. Iowa State, 11. Kansas, 12. Houston, 21. West Virginia, 29. Baylor, 38. Arizona, 42. Arizona State

Also Considered: Cincinnati, UCF, Texas Tech, BYU

Biggest Change: West Virginia finally wins one in Lawrence; Arizona scores two key wins, too

Playing without two of its three leading scorers in a venue where it had never previously won a game, West Virginia pulled off one of the biggest surprises of the 2024 portion of the schedule with its road win over Kansas last Tuesday.

Javon Small was huge for the Mountaineers, going for 13 points, 11 rebounds and six assists in what may have been a season-defining win for them. Small also exploded for 24 points, 11 rebounds, four assists and three steals in Saturday's 19-point victory over Oklahoma State—WVU's sixth consecutive game in which it held its opponent to 61 points or fewer.

The 'Eers were merely a No. 9 seed in our previous projection, but now boasting a 3-1 record against the top half of Quad 1 has launched them well up the overall seed list.

Meanwhile, Arizona appears to be back from the dead. After entering league play at 6-5 overall with nary a remotely quality win, the Wildcats opened their inaugural foray into life in the Big 12 with back-to-back victories over TCU and Cincinnati—the latter the much more impressive of the two.

Given the current uninspiring state of the bubble, it has already become impossible to deny the Wildcats a spot in the projected field, given the sensational predictive metrics that are helping to buoy resume metrics that aren't completely terrible anymore. But if they can stay hot and get a road win Tuesday night over the aforementioned West Virginia, that could give them a huge boost, comfortably into single-digit seed territory.

Big East Summary

3 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 6. Marquette, 16. Connecticut, 30. St. John's

Also Considered: Georgetown, Creighton

Biggest Change: Marquette stakes its claim to a No. 1 seed

It wasn't a particularly eventful week in the Big East. Creighton won at home against St. John's and lost at Marquette in the only two games pitting the league's top six teams against one another, while all games between the top six and the bottom five resulted in wins for the former.

Still, it was a noteworthy week for No. 1 seed hopeful Marquette, which won at Providence by a staggering 28-point margin on New Year's Eve before improving to 4-0 in league play with an eight-point victory over the Bluejays.

Kam Jones was, of course, at the epicenter of that big week, going for a combined 40 points, 15 assists, 12 rebounds and five steals in bolstering his case for National Player of the Year. (Not that he gained any ground on Johni Broome or Cooper Flagg, though, who also had dominant weeks.)

The Golden Eagles are likely just getting warmed up, too. They should win their next six games against Georgetown, DePaul, Xavier, Seton Hall, Villanova and Butler before the first massive showdown with UConn on Feb. 1.

If the Huskies also hold serve through January, that game may well determine which Big East team is projected for a No. 1 seed on Groundhog Day.

As a side note, Georgetown improved to 12-2 overall and 3-0 in Big East play with a home win over Xavier. But here comes the sledgehammer to test the Hoyas' mettle: at Marquette, vs. Connecticut and at St. John's in the next eight days. Winning even one of those three games would be huge, both for self-confidence and for a possible spot in the projected field.

Big Ten Summary

10 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 8. Illinois, 14. Oregon, 17. Michigan State, 20. UCLA, 24. Purdue, 25. Michigan, 26. Wisconsin, 31. Nebraska, 32. Ohio State, 40. Maryland

Also Considered: Indiana, Penn State, Northwestern, Iowa

Biggest Change: Pacific Northwest journey shakes things up big time

Before Illinois and Maryland flew to Oregon and Washington, the former was seeded slightly behind the latter in our New Year's Eve projection, the Terrapins at No. 24 overall to the Illini's No. 27.

Both had fantastic NET and predictive metrics rankings but were lacking in quality wins. Maryland was 3-2 against teams in NET Top 200, its best win coming at home against Ohio State. Illinois was 3-3 against that same Top 200, though at least had exclusively played Quad 1 games, beating Wisconsin at home along with neutral victories over Arkansas and Missouri.

For either one, sweeping the Ducks and Huskies had the potential to do wonders, while getting swept on that road trip could have been an absolute disaster.

Not only did Illinois pull off the sweep, but it straight up destroyed what had been a Top 10 Oregon team by 32 points. It was probably the most impressive performance by any team this entire season. And while the subsequent game at Washington ended up being a bit too close for comfort, at least the Illini avoided what would have been a letdown loss.

For that successful, lengthy road trip, Illinois springboarded all the way up to a No. 2 seed.

Maryland, on the other hand, narrowly lost both games, despite leading each one with eight minutes remaining.

The back-to-back losses didn't do much of anything to hurt the Terrapins' predictive metrics, still ranking top 25 in each of NET, BPI, KenPom and Torvik. But an already iffy resume grew even more problematic, as the Terrapins are now just 2-4 against the NET Top 160.

Maryland's seed projection had a nearly equal but opposite reaction to Illinois', plummeting five seed lines from our bottom No. 6 to our bottom No. 10.

SEC Summary

12 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Auburn, 2. Tennessee, 5. Alabama, 7. Kentucky, 9. Mississippi State, 10. Florida, 15. Texas A&M, 18. Oklahoma, 28. Ole Miss, 34. Georgia, 37. Vanderbilt, 44. Arkansas

Also Considered: Texas, Missouri, LSU

Biggest Change: Home teams start out 7-1

SEC play is going to be an 18-round heavyweight fight, but the first round on Saturday went pretty well as expected.

Of the 10 teams in the conference that were ranked in last week's AP poll, seven were playing at home, each of which emerged victorious. Mostly in dominant fashion, too, Kentucky's 106-100 victory over Florida the only game of the seven decided by fewer than a dozen points.

There was one other game, though, pitting unranked foes against one another. And that one may have ended up being the most notable of the bunch, with Vanderbilt improving to 13-1 with a road win over LSU.

The Commodores were already in our projected field prior to that result, though not by much. Of all 16 SEC teams, they have been the least battle-tested thus far. Everyone else has played at least one game against the top half of Quad 1 and at least two total games against Quad 1, but Vandy is sitting at zero and one games, respectively, that win over LSU representing its first Quad 1 game of the year.

Hard to argue with the result, though, as Vanderbilt is 12-2 or better through 14 games for the first time since starting out 16-0 in 2007-08. The 'Dores are winning the turnover battle by a wide margin on a nightly basis and could be a colossal nuisance to the rest of the SEC, if not a straight-up legit contender for a single-digit seed.

Mid-Majors Summary (AAC, A-10, MVC, MWC, WCC)

10 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 13. Memphis, 19. Utah State, 22. Gonzaga, 33. San Diego State, 36. Dayton, 39. St. Bonaventure, 41. Washington State, 45. New Mexico, 46. Saint Mary's, 48. Bradley

Also Considered: Drake, San Francisco, Boise State

Biggest Change: Say hello to the Bonnies

Who knew that when Adrian Wojnarowski retired from the NBA insider grind to become GM of his alma mater, St. Bonaventure, that he'd be getting a front-row seat to a 14-1 start to the year?

Up until the past week, there wasn't a whole lot about this strong start worth getting too fired up about, their best wins of the season—on neutral floors against Northern Iowa and Providence—only barely qualifying for Quad 2 instead of Quad 3.

But opening A-10 play with a home win over VCU gave a solid dash of legitimacy to this eye-popping record, and following it up with a 20-point road win over Fordham didn't hurt.

Wagner transfer Melvin Council has been a wrecking ball over the past few weeks, and that continued with a combined 44 points, 12 assists, nine rebounds and five steals in those wins.

That 2-0 start coupled with Dayton getting drilled at George Washington on Saturday elevated St. Bonaventure to the projected auto bid from the A-10. But they'd be narrowly in the field right now even as an at-large team.

Tough one for the Bonnies coming up Wednesday at Saint Louis, who also destroyed Fordham in the past seven days and started 2-0 in league play. The Billikens got out to a rough start to the season, but their Big Three of Robbie Avila, Isaiah Swope and Gibson Jimerson is finally hitting its stride, all three averaging better than 18 points per game.

Other 21 Leagues Summary

21 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 47. UC San Diego, 49. McNeese, 50. Samford, 51. Grand Canyon, 52. Charleston, 53. Lipscomb, 54. UTEP, 55. Columbia, 56. South Alabama, 57. UMass Lowell, 58. Northern Colorado, 59. Norfolk State, 60. Ohio, 61. UNC Asheville, 62. Marist, 63. Youngstown State, 64. Central Connecticut, 65. Kansas City, 66. Southeast Missouri State, 67. Southern, 68. Navy

Also Considered: UC Irvine, Liberty

Biggest Change: All sorts of new auto bid madness

With the exception of NJIT, Utah Tech and the Ivy League, every team in the country has now played at least one conference game.

This means it is now time to start letting the conference standings determine which teams are projected for the automatic bids, instead of our weekly approach over the past two months of simply penciling each league's team with the best predictive metrics into the field.

It sure did shake things up.

One week ago, we had Liberty, Furman and Arkansas State among the four highest-seeded teams in this section. Now, however, they're nowhere to be found, each suffering a conference loss within the past five days.

Kent State, High Point and several others, too, have been kicked to the curb in favor of teams who have yet to suffer a conference loss.

It's pure anarchy, right?

It's also wonderful preparation for Championship Week, when conference tournament No. 1 seeds bite the dust left and right, causing all sorts of shuffling in the Nos. 12-16 seeds range until all of the auto bids are finally awarded.

It's a bit wacky to see Navy in the projected field at 5-10 overall as the only Patriot League team that hasn't suffered a conference loss. But, whatever, we've seen several 20-loss teams snag a spot in the field in the past.