The Texas Longhorns and Arizona State Sun Devils are up second in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal order.
The SEC runner-up and Big 12 champion face off in the Peach Bowl, the first of three quarterfinals on New Years' Day.
Texas used a 14-point victory over the Clemson Tigers to get into the final eight. The Longhorns landed the No. 5 seed after losing to the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game.
Arizona State earned the final of the four first-round byes as the fourth-highest-ranked conference champion.
Texas was the higher ranked team than ASU all season and that is why the point spread swings so far in the Longhorns' favor.
Steve Sarkisian's team needs a better overall defensive performance on Wednesday to slow down ASU and one of the best individual players in college football, running back Cam Skattebo.
Peach Bowl Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread: Texas (-12.5)
Over/Under: 51
Money Line: Texas (-500; bet $500 to win $100); Arizona State (+380; bet $100 to win $380)
Texas Needs to Put Together Cleaner Defensive Performance
Texas' primary calling card all season long was its defense.
The Longhorns allowed over 20 points on three occasions. Two of those concessions came against Georgia.
Texas gave up 24 points to Clemson in the first round and allowed Cade Klubnik to throw for 336 yards.
The three highest point concessions from the Texas defense came against ranked foes, so that trend is a bit concerning heading into the Peach Bowl.
Texas has an elite rushing defense, which could give it the biggest advantage in the matchup if it slows down Skattebo and forces Sam Leavitt to win the game for ASU through the air.
Offensively, Texas looked sharp with 38 points and 494 total yards in the win over Clemson.
Moving the ball might be more difficult against ASU, but at least Texas comes into the Peach Bowl with some offensive momentum. That could be not said about the first round after a disappointing 19-point showing in the SEC Championship Game.
Texas' winning formula to rely on a solid offensive game from Quinn Ewers and Quintrevion Wisner and for the defense to contain ASU to under 20 points. It's a formula that's worked well for most of the season and one that could win the Longhorns a national championship.
Arizona State Will Go as Far as Cam Skattebo Takes It
Cam Skattebo is one of the most electric players in college football.
The Arizona State running back totaled 1,568 yards and 19 touchdowns on the way to winning the Big 12 title.
Skattebo turned in a 170-yard, two-touchdown performance in the Big 12 Championship to put ASU in its position as the No. 4 seed.
Skattebo has three straight games with at least 140 rushing yards. He had eight rushing touchdowns in that span as well.
In ASU two losses, Skattebo was held to 75 and 60 rushing yards. Texas needs to slow him down to take the Sun Devils out of their offensive rhythm.
The Sun Devils could beat Texas through the air, but Skattebo typically touches the ball around 20 times per game.
An ineffective Skattebo will hurt ASU and require a perfect outing from quarterback Sam Leavitt to beat Texas, which is the worst-case scenario for the Big 12 champion.
Prediction
Texas 31, Arizona State 21
Arizona State can hang with Texas if Skattebo puts in a strong day of work on the ground.
However, the Sun Devils are more limited in the passing game than Texas and that could work to their disadvantage throughout the game.
Texas has a balanced attack with Ewers throwing the ball and with Wisner and Jayden Blue running the ball.
The Longhorns can eventually wear down the ASU defense, like they did to Clemson in the first round, and come away with a victory to set up a semifinal matchup with the winner of the Rose Bowl between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Oregon Ducks.
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