Penn State's Abdul Carter should be deployed as a chess piece along a defensive front. Roger Wimmer/ISI Photos/Getty Images

Best and Worst Draft-Day Scenarios for College Football Playoff's Top Prospects

Brent Sobleski

The expanded College Football Playoff serves as a showcase for those with an eye toward the 2025 NFL draft. The second round of play will feature one-third of those graded among the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's top-30 prospects for next April's event.

With the evaluation goggles on during the season's biggest games, the talent on display will define the upcoming class and the NFL's next wave of talent.

However, great talent doesn't automatically equate to success at the next level. An individual's landing spot often plays as big a part, if not bigger, when it comes to how he develops at the professional level.

So, an understanding of each prospect's strengths and weaknesses, as well as the how the class is constructed, must be addressed to project where they have a better chance of succeeding as opposed to others.

For example, names such as Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield are now finding success after being dumped by their initial teams, partly because those situations weren't great at the time. They weren't given the right tools or patience to succeed, but they found it elsewhere.

With those previously mentioned prospects in mind, a bit of game theory is necessary to envision where players can flourish once they're drafted.

S Malaki Starks, Georgia

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Best Case: Falling Outside of Top 10 Despite Being an Elite Prospect

Georgia's Malaki Starks holds a legitimate top-10 grade from the B/R Scouting Department. He's clearly one of the best prospects among the 2025 class, but he shouldn't be drafted where his talent dictates—which may sound counterintuitive.

Keep in mind the following: A pure safety prospect hasn't been chosen among the initial 10 picks since the New York Jets chose Jamal Adams with the sixth overall pick in 2017.

Starks should prefer going into a situation where he joins a better squad without being accompanied by expectations placed upon a top-10 draft pick while playing a non-premium position.

Potential Fits: Indianapolis Colts, Cincinnati Bengals

Worst Case: Selected Among Top 10 Where Starks' Talent Dictates

Conversely, a landing spot in one of the league's worst teams will set enormous expectations.

Starks would automatically be lumped in with the likes of Kyle Hamilton, Derwin James and Minkah Fitzpatrick, even though that's unfair for any rookie. Besides, each of them were drafted outside of the Top 10.

Financially, Starks can benefit in the short term. However, he's unlikely to make the type of difference at safety that can turn around a moribund franchise.

Poor Fits: Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets

RB Ashton Jeanty, Boise State

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Best Case: Lands as RB1 To Playoff Squad

Let's start by stating the following: Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty is a legitimate top-10 talent for the 2025 NFL draft class.

Running backs aren't often discussed in this manner. In this case, it's a combination of ability—his contact balance borders on otherworldly—and a relatively weak crop near the top of the class.

With that said, the incoming group of ball-carriers can make a claim as the strongest position group. An NFL team will find a starting running back well into Day 2 and possibly Day 3 of the draft.

As such, Jeanty likely doesn't sniff the top 10. However, he can still be RB1 and likely land in a better offensive situation, where's he's not looked upon as a team's identity.

Potential Fits: Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers

Worst Case: Top-10 Selection to A Losing Team In Dire Need of an Identity

Let's reiterate: Jeanty is a legitimate top-10 talent for the 2025 NFL draft class. The wording of that sentence is important.

The Boise State product may fall into a certain range, but he's not the same caliber of prospect as a Saquon Barkley or even Bijan Robinson—both of whom were top-seven selections.

Any team willing to consider Jeanty that in high the process during next April's draft will almost assuredly do so to make him the franchise's offensive focal point. The Doak Walker Award winner can carry that type of load, but he'd be better served long-term as part of the machine instead of the driving force.

Poor Fits: Las Vegas Raiders, New Orleans Saints

Edge Abdul Carter, Penn State

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Best Case: Playing for a Creative Coordinator Who Will Deploy Him Across the Defensive Front.

Penn State's Abdul Carter has the most upside of almost any prospect for the 2025 draft class. At the same time, he's still a developing prospect in multiple areas.

This season, he was asked to make the full-time transition from off-ball linebacker to edge-defender. He excelled as the reigning Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year. His quickness of the snap and bend around the edge make him an extremely difficult assignment.

But Carter isn't the biggest or strongest defensive end prospect. Thus, a coach who moves him around the front seven to take full advantage of mismatches will maximize his enormous potential.

Potential Fits: Cleveland Browns, Carolina Panthers

Worst Case: Landing In a Situation Tasked with Being a Base End

As mentioned, Carter's upside create a potential situation where he becomes a top-five draft pick. The 252-pound prospect lacks the strength and technique to consistently set the edge as a run defender.

If a team asks him to play one spot and be a true three-down defender, his best attributes won't be highlighted. He's not big or polished enough to handled NFL offensive tackles on a consistent basis.

The unanimous All-American should be lumped into a specific position where he can't be as effective.

Poor Fits: Las Vegas Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars

WR Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State

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Best Case: Immediately Slides into Starting Slot Receiver Role

Emeka Egbuka has been a productive receiver over the last three seasons despite playing on a loaded Ohio State Buckeyes roster.

He's never been the program's WR1, which is what happened with teammates such as Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. However, he found a definitive role as the team's slot receiver.

Even this season when Egbuka was expected to play outside the numbers more often, Smith and Tate couldn't be taken off the field.

However, the senior prospect has a clearly defined role as a precise and efficient route-runner from the moment he enters an NFL locker room.

Potential Fits: Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans

Worst Case: Being Viewed as a Squad's WR1

Egbuka could well become a team's top target, much like Terry McLaurin once did after being an afterthought in the Buckeyes' passing attack.

Egbuka's game doesn't present the same explosiveness, though. He's a complementary target, which isn't a knock on him at all.

Rosters need receivers with varying skill sets. An overlap doesn't allow individuals to blossom to their fullest. In his case, he can be the type of security blanket quarterbacks love to target, as long as he's paired with a threat among the team's X- or Z-options.

Poor Fits: Detroit Lions, Indianapolis Colts

TE Tyler Warren, Penn State

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Best Case: Primary Weapon in an NFL Offense

What a difference a year made for Penn State tight end Tyler Warren

Last season, he snagged a respectable 34 passes for 422 yards. Enter new Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, who used his tight end as a multipurpose threat.

The 6'6", 257-pound senior lined up traditionally, out wide, on the wing, in the backfield and even at quarterback. He became the Nittany Lions' primary target, with 92 receptions for 1,095 yards (and counting).

Another bright offensive mind should see how Warren can be deployed as a Travis Kelce- or George Kittle-like threat.

Potential Fits: Indianapolis Colts, Cincinnati Bengals

Worst Case: Drafted to Be a Traditional In-Line Option

There's nothing wrong with a tight end serving in as a traditional Y. But the position has been expanded to the point where it's no longer become the third or fourth option in the passing game by default.

Tight ends can essentially serve as WR1 in certain scenarios.

In fact, that's exactly how Penn State utilized Warren this fall. He's more than capable of playing in-line, but only doing so will severely limit how he can fully affect a game and threaten opposing defenses.

Poor Fits: New Orleans Saints, Dallas Cowboys

CB Jahdae Barron, Texas

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Best Case: Joins a Defensive as a Versatile Weapon

Modern defensive backs can be utilized in variety of means without being taken off the field. They can play outside corner, cover the slot, line up in the box, blitz and possibly bump to safety if necessary.

Texas' Jahdae Barron is a prime example. He can do all those things and probably a little more. It's a potential waste of his talent to have him lined up primarily in the slot or out wide.

Much like Michigan's Mike Sainristil a year ago, the competitive nature and playmaking skill of this prospect will force him onto the field wherever his next team needs him, hence why he's the reigning Jim Thorpe Award winner as the nation's best defensive back.

Potential Fits: Los Angeles Rams, Cincinnati Bengals

Worst Case: Gets Pigeonholed into One Defensive Back Spot

The reason why versatility is so important in today's game is based on defenders not being exploited when an offense makes personnel changes or shifts into certain alignments.

A prospect like Barron allows a defensive coordinator a certain amount of flexibility without the worry of losing a specific matchup.

Barron shouldn't be viewed as pure cornerback prospect, because he isn't one. He can fill that role, but his nose for the football and ability to read opposing quarterbacks make him dangerous at all times to make a game-changing play.

Poor Fits: Philadelphia Eagles, Indianapolis Colts

LB Jalon Walker, Georgia

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Best Case: Stays as an Off-Ball Linebacker With Sub-Package Potential

Georgia's Jalon Walker is the class' best linebacker prospect. He's not a traditional off-ball LB, though.

The 6'2", 245-pounder plays inside linebacker, but he also lines up as an edge-rusher and thrives when blitzing. He's an aggressive, downhill destroyer.

The reigning Butkus Award winner will have teams evaluating differently. Some may keep him along the second line of defense, while others may view him as regular pass-rusher. He's both, though.

A plan is necessary to deploy Walker properly, but he's more than good enough with the right instincts to blow up plays at either spot.

Potential Fits: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Minnesota Vikings

Worst Case: Viewed as a Traditional Three-Down Linebacker

Walker is a capable spot-dropper in zone coverage. He's not the type of prospect who will regularly carry or follow passing targets.

In fact, the first-team All-American managed all of two defended passes over the last three seasons. He is at his best when he can keep the play in front of him and trigger. Once his back is turned, the advantage turns toward the offense.

A defensive coordinator can use him off the ball on early downs and up front in pressure packages to ensure he's well worth a potential first-round selection.

Poor Fits: Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars

S Xavier Watts, Notre Dame

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Best Case: Lands in 1st Round Thanks to Overall Skill Set

As with Malaki Starks, the safety position doesn't hold great value, which is why a talent like the Georgia product could end up going lower in the draft than his talent dictates.

The same applies to Notre Dame's Xavier Watts, who is a complete defensive back also worthy of first-round consideration.

Granted, he's not quite the athlete Starks is in coverage, hence the differentiation between the two. However, the Notre Dame safety's ball skills are among the nation's best, with 13 interceptions and 13 defended passes over the last two seasons.

Furthermore, the 2023 Bronko Nagurski Trophy winner is quick to trigger downhill and shut down plays developing in front of him.

Potential Fits: Houston Texans, Washington Commanders

Worst Case: A Sliding Starks Drives Every Other Safety Out of Opening Round

Three different safeties hold a first-round grade according to the B/R Scouting Department. Starks and Watts are joined by South Carolina's Nick Emmanwori, but the possibility of all three hearing their names called in the opening frame are low.

Yes, Starks should want to land with a better team in a better situation outside of the top-10 picks. Any potential slide should not be viewed as a knock on the rest of the position class.

Watts can come in and create an impact. If the entire safety class shifts and a prospect of his caliber slides into Day 2, some NFL squad will make a tremendous value pick.

Poor Fits: Green Bay Packers, Buffalo Bills

Edge Mykel Williams, Georgia

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Best Case: Stays as Full-Time Edge-Defender

Mykel Williams' transition from an interior defender to a full-time edge-defender somewhat mirrored that of 2022 No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker, who also attended the University of Georgia.

In order for Williams to maximize his long-term value, he must show a similar growth curve at the next level.

Walker had only 9.5 sacks during his three seasons in Athens. Similarly, Williams has never had standout production, though he has managed 14 in total so far.

It's what Walker did at the professional level that matters now. He took his impressive physical tools and started to hone his craft. He has posted 9.5 or more sacks in each of the last two seasons with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Williams is another long-limbed, powerful and athletic defensive lineman with the capability of registering 10 sacks per season at the next level. He'll need to concentrate on improving his technique and approach at one position in order to make that happen.

Potential Fits: Cleveland Browns, Atlanta Falcons

Worst Case: Gets Stuck In Rotation Without Enough Concentration on Development

Williams needs to play. Unlike may of the prospects already mentioned, he doesn't require a plan of attack on how to properly utilize him. He has the size, build and athletic profile to be a starting NFL defensive end. He's not a fully realized version, though.

In a situation with constant rotations and possibly playing along the interior in certain sub-packages, William may never become a fully formed defender. He needs reps and a home.

Poor Fits: Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Chargers

OT Josh Conerly Jr., Oregon

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Best Case: Hears Name Called as OT1

The 2025 offensive tackle class is suspect. With LSU's Will Campbell viewed as an interior prospect and Ohio State's Josh Simmons nursing a season-ending knee injury, the door has opened for anyone to take the spot.

While no OT prospects should be considered top-10 worthy, Oregon's Josh Conerly Jr. may have played himself into the group's top option.

He is a good mover with a repeatable pass set, which allowed him to fare quite well against the talented defensive fronts of Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. He matched up and more than held his own against multiple future NFL edge-rushers, including Abdul Carter.

With offensive tackle viewed as a premium position, Conerly could go relatively high in the process, while being the first taken off the board.

Potential Fits: Los Angeles Rams, Baltimore Ravens

Worst Case: Falls To 2nd Round as Fourth or Fifth Offensive Tackle

A world exists where desperation and evaluation work against Conerly.

Currently, the B/R Scouting Department projects Campbell and Texas' Kelvin Banks Jr. as guard prospects. Some NFL front offices will disagree.

Furthermore, Simmons' injury report, coupled with the ascension of Missouri's Armand Membou, could all be in the mix to decide the offensive tackle merry-go-round.

A matter of preference may be all it takes to differentiate the 2024 offensive tackle class, because of its flaws and the fact that the available talents are so similarly grouped.

Poor Fits: Cleveland Browns, Chicago Bears

DT Derrick Harmon, Oregon

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Best Case: Sneaks Into 1st Round at DT3

Derrick Harmon played his way into being considered a top-30 prospect.

After three solid seasons with the Michigan State Spartans, he transferred to the Oregon Ducks program, where he took off like a flying V toward his intended destination.

The second-team All-Big Ten honoree emerged as a complete interior defender, capable of shooting gaps to blow up run plays and more than enough juice to collapse the pocket and create pressure in the passing game.

Obviously, Michigan's Mason Graham and Ole Miss' Walter Nolen have been highly regarded throughout the process. Another NFL squad looking for a potential game-wrecker just may find one late in the first rounder with Harmon's addition.

Potential Fits: Houston Texans, Los Angeles Chargers

Worst Case: NFL Teams Don't View Harmon as Anything More Than 1-Year Wonder

Harmon wasn't the same caliber of prospect in Michigan State as he is today.

Certain NFL organizations believe in early breakout ages. The idea being that the younger a prospect is, the higher the likelihood of success at the professional level.

A prospect who doesn't dominate until later in his collegiate career can be viewed in two different ways: He's either a late bloomer or needed to mature before beating up on inferior competition.

Every prospect is different. In Harmon's case, he looks like a legitimate defensive stopper. But not all NFL teams will agree.

Poor Fits: Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers

   

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