When the 2024-25 men's college basketball season began back on Nov. 4, we were 132 days away from Selection Sunday. Already, though, we're down to just 75 days left, nearly halfway through the campaign with conference play about to begin in earnest on a nationwide scale.

And as we near that midpoint, the projected No. 1 seeds for the NCAA tournament remain Auburn, Tennessee, Iowa State and Duke, in that order.

At this point in the season, predictive (or QUAL) metrics (KenPom, Torvik and BPI) still carry a little more weight on the team sheets than the resume (or RES) metrics (SOR, KPI and WAB) do, but all six metrics—as well as quadrant-based records and strength of schedule—factor into the seeding process. By early March, however, the RES metrics will become more important than the QUAL metrics.

Also of note, the projected auto bids from each of the 31 conferences will eventually be based entirely on conference record. In more than a dozen of the leagues, though, conference play has not yet begun, so we're simply rolling with the highest-rated team in the predictive metrics as each league's projected champ. We'll likely make the switch over to basing auto projections on conference records in our Jan. 7 projection.

Because not much has happened in the past seven days, we're temporarily pivoting away from our normal conference-by-conference breakdown of biggest changes since the previous week's projection. Instead, we'll be touching on each of the biggest surprises—one positive, one negative—within each conference from the first two months of the season.

The Projected Bracket

EAST REGION (Newark)

Raleigh, NC
1. Duke vs. 16. Marist/Southern
8. Georgia vs. 9. West Virginia

Providence, RI
4. Connecticut vs. 13. Charleston
5. Texas A&M vs. 12. Liberty

Denver, CO
3. Houston vs. 14. Lipscomb
6. Utah State vs. 11. Nebraska

Raleigh, NC
2. Florida vs. 15. Northern Colorado
7. Illinois vs. 10. Texas Tech

MIDWEST REGION (Indianapolis)

Lexington, KY
1. Tennessee vs. 16. Central Connecticut
8. Drake vs. 9. Cincinnati

Denver, CO
4. UCLA vs. 13. Arkansas State
5. Pittsburgh vs. 12. UC San Diego

Cleveland, OH
3. Kentucky vs. 14. Columbia
6. Purdue vs. 11. Arkansas/Arizona State

Wichita, KS
2. Kansas vs. 15. Milwaukee
7. Clemson vs. 10. Ohio State

SOUTH REGION (Atlanta)

Lexington, KY
1. Auburn vs. 16. American/Little Rock
8. Wisconsin vs. 9. San Diego State

Providence, RI
4. Memphis vs. 13. McNeese
5. Michigan State vs. 12. Vanderbilt/Saint Mary's

Wichita, KS
3. Mississippi State vs. 14. High Point
6. Baylor vs. 11. Penn State

Cleveland, OH
2. Marquette vs. 15. UMass Lowell
7. Michigan vs. 10. North Carolina

WEST REGION (San Francisco)

Milwaukee, WI
1. Iowa State vs. 16. Norfolk State
8. Ole Miss vs. 9. Dayton

Seattle, WA
4. Oklahoma vs. 13. Kent State
5. Gonzaga vs. 12. Furman

Seattle, WA
3. Oregon vs. 14. Grand Canyon
6. Maryland vs. 11. SMU

Milwaukee, WI
2. Alabama vs. 15. North Dakota State
7. St. John's vs. 10. Texas

Bracketing principles note:

With both the Big Ten and SEC projected for more than 10 teams each, it's worth pointing out this note from the NCAA's bracketing principles and procedures:

"Teams from the same conference may play each other as early as the second round if they played no more than once during the regular season and conference tournament."

Ideally, this wouldn't happen, but there may be some spots in which it is simply unavoidable.

In this particular projection, things shook out in just the right way so as to avoid any such scenarios. With eight SEC teams in our top 17, though, it won't always work out so nicely.

Ranking the No. 1 Seeds

1. Auburn Tigers (12-1, NET: 1, RES: 1.7, QUAL: 1.0)

2. Tennessee Volunteers (12-0, NET: 2, RES: 5.3, QUAL: 3.7)

3. Iowa State Cyclones (11-1, NET: 7, RES: 12.3, QUAL: 6.7)

4. Duke Blue Devils (10-2, NET: 3, RES: 9.7, QUAL: 2.7)

5. Florida Gators (13-0, NET: 4, RES: 6.3, QUAL: 8.7)

6. Alabama Crimson Tide (11-2, NET: 8, RES: 4.7, QUAL: 8.3)

No changes here from one week ago.

Neither Tennessee nor Duke played a game, while Auburn (vs. Monmouth), Florida (vs. Stetson) and Alabama (vs. South Dakota State) all ended nonconference play with a home game in which they were massive favorites.

The only game that reasonably could have shaken things up was Iowa State's Big 12 opener at Colorado on Monday night, but the Cyclones—who previously smashed the Buffaloes by 28 in the Maui Invitational—took care of business to remain a No. 1 seed.

Auburn remains laughably ahead of the pack with six Quad 1 wins, including a victory over Iowa State in the aforementioned Maui Invitational. The Tigers beat all of Houston, Iowa State, North Carolina, Memphis, Ohio State and Purdue away from home, making the most of one of the tougher nonconference slates in the country.

While Tennessee's list of top wins isn't that long, the Volunteers did win at Illinois, destroyed Baylor on a neutral court and are one remaining game against Norfolk State away from carrying a perfect record into SEC play. (Tennessee will play at Auburn on Jan. 25. Plan accordingly.)

Iowa State's only loss came against Auburn, and at the buzzer on a neutral floor, no less. The Cyclones have been uncommonly great on offense and might be the team to beat in a Big 12 that also features outstanding Houston and Kansas squads.

Duke beat Auburn in the ACC-SEC Challenge, though only after neutral-site losses to Kentucky and Kansas. The predictive metrics adore the Blue Devils, though, who also won at Arizona.

Florida is undefeated, though largely untested with nary a game against the top half of Quad 1. Huge game at Kentucky this weekend.

And Alabama emerged from its nonconference gauntlet with a strong 11-2 record featuring three Quad 1A wins. Don't go forgetting about the preseason favorite to win the SEC.

10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams

Fifth-to-Last In: Nebraska Cornhuskers (11-2)—Winning the Diamond Head Classic helped 'Huskers leapfrog some teams.

Fourth-to-Last In: Arkansas Razorbacks (11-2)—Might be great, but presently 1-2 vs. top two Quads.

Third-to-Last In: Arizona State Sun Devils (9-2)—A New Year's Eve win at BYU would be huge.

Second-to-Last In: Vanderbilt Commodores (12-1)—Must capitalize on "easy" first four games in SEC play.

Last Team In: Saint Mary's Gaels (11-3)—No great wins, and opportunities for them all but gone.

****CUT LINE****

First Team Out: Missouri Tigers (11-2)—All wins at home; one win vs. NET Top 125.

Second Team Out: Iowa Hawkeyes (10-3)—Winless vs. Q1; only three wins that aren't in Q4.

Third Team Out: LSU Tigers (11-2)—Lost its only two games against teams in at-large mix.

Fourth Team Out: Creighton Bluejays (8-5)—Just about must beat St. John's or Marquette this week.

Fifth Team Out: Louisville Cardinals (8-5)—No bad losses; couple of solid wins; faces UNC Wednesday.

ACC Summary

5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 4. Duke, 20. Pittsburgh, 25. Clemson, 38. North Carolina, 41. SMU

Also Considered: Louisville

Positive Surprise: SMU Mustangs

Pittsburgh being in the mix for a potential No. 4 or No. 5 seed would have been unexpected eight weeks ago, but the Panthers have barely climbed 10 spots on KenPom and haven't been that big of a surprise.

SMU in the projected field as one of the league's newcomers has been a considerably more stunning development.

The Mustangs are 11-2 with solid neutral-site victories over Washington State and LSU and a 2-0 start in ACC play against Virginia and Boston College.

But judgment day is nigh. SMU will get one game each during the regular season against Duke and North Carolina, and those are coming up within the next eight days. A win in either game would be huge. Lose them both, however, and it'll be a tightrope walk to the finish line with 16 games left, which are much more landmine than opportunity.

Negative Surprise: Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Of the 54 voters in the preseason ACC media poll, 42 picked Duke to win the league and 11 took North Carolina. The outlier selected Wake Forest, which was supposed to finish in third place.

Instead, the Demon Deacons are 9-4 with just one remotely quality win (Michigan) and poor/mediocre metrics across the board.

Last year, they had one of the more efficient offenses in the country, with five different players who averaged at least one made triple per game while shooting at least 35 percent from distance. This year, their offense has been a nightmare, even with Hunter Sallis still in the fold. Wake Forest is almost dead last in the nation in three-point percentage, held to 56.0 points per game in its four losses.

Big 12 Summary

8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 3. Iowa State, 7. Kansas, 11. Houston, 23. Baylor, 33. West Virginia, 34. Cincinnati, 39. Texas Tech, 45. Arizona State

Also Considered: BYU, Colorado, Arizona

Positive Surprise: West Virginia Mountaineers

West Virginia had to replace everything from a team that was already not good and in a state of flux following Bob Huggins' termination the previous summer.

The Mountaineers went 9-23 in Josh Eilert's lone season at the helm and ended up with only one returning player for this season who scored a point for them last season. That lone returnee (Ofri Naveh) took a redshirt on Nov. 5, too, leaving them with a new coach (Darian DeVries from Drake) and an entirely new roster.

Lo and behold, the 'Eers have already matched their win total from last season, including victories over both Gonzaga and Arizona in the Battle 4 Atlantis. They also scored a 13-point win over Georgetown, which might actually be worth something this year.

Opening Big 12 play at Kansas on Tuesday night could be a rude awakening, or maybe they'll win at Allen Fieldhouse for the first time since joining the conference.

Negative Surprise: Arizona Wildcats

Arizona was ranked 10th in the preseason AP poll, one of five teams from the Big 12 expected to be a serious threat to reach the Final Four.

That team has yet to arrive, though, as the Wildcats entered Monday's Big 12 opener against TCU with an 0-5 record against the KenPom Top 100 and a nonconference profile that leaves them needing to do an awful lot of work over the next 10 weeks just to get into the NCAA tournament.

KenPom still believes in this team, rating Arizona as a top-25 team. That's because when it did win nonconference games, it did so by an average margin of 40.2 points. But that Jekyll and Hyde routine might be the death of the Wildcats.

Big East Summary

3 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 8. Marquette, 15. Connecticut, 28. St. John's

Also Considered: Creighton, Georgetown

Positive Surprise: Georgetown Hoyas

Georgetown isn't in the projected field. Not yet, at least. As Jon Rothstein would say, though, the Hoyas are in position to be in position.

And that hasn't been the case in a while.

Even when Georgetown won the Big East tournament in 2021, it was 9-12 heading into that magical week at Madison Square Garden, with no hope whatsoever for an at-large bid. The Hoyas haven't finished top 60 on KenPom since 2015, and hadn't finished higher than 175th in any of the past three years.

Yet, there they sit, at 11-2 overall, with a rivalry road win over Syracuse and a 2-0 record in Big East play at the expense of Creighton and Seton Hall. They couldn't stop anything on defense last season, but freshman Thomas Sorber and TCU grad transfer Micah Peavy have been godsends on that end of the floor.

After a home game against Xavier this Friday, Georgetown will consecutively need to deal with Marquette (road), Connecticut (home) and St. John's (road). Winning any of those three games would give a lot of legitimacy to the notion that this team might finally be back.

Negative Surprise: Creighton Bluejays

The flipside of Georgetown's 24-point win over Creighton making the Hoyas a pleasant surprise is that it loudly punctuated the possibility that Creighton just isn't good this year.

That loss dropped the Bluejays to 7-5 overall, with a 76-63 home win over Kansas the massive exception to what has otherwise been a disappointing season. And even that big win was followed by disappointing news, with Pop Isaacs undergoing season-ending hip surgery not long after his 27-point gem against the Jayhawks.

Creighton is arguably still the Big East's fourth-best candidate for an at-large bid, but it's not looking great. Gigantic games against St. John's (home) and Marquette (road) are looming in the next few days.

Big Ten Summary

11 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 12. Oregon, 13. UCLA, 19. Michigan State, 22. Purdue, 24. Maryland, 26. Michigan, 27. Illinois, 30. Wisconsin, 37. Ohio State, 42. Penn State, 43. Nebraska

Also Considered: Iowa, Indiana, Northwestern

Positive Surprise: Penn State Nittany Lions

In the Big Ten preseason media poll, only Minnesota was picked to finish behind Penn State this season, with the Nittany Lions landing much closer to 18th place than 16th place in that census.

They have been a bit of a wrecking ball, though, getting each of their 11 wins by a double-digit margin, including their Big Ten opener against preseason favorite Purdue. Penn State's swarming defense forced 24 turnovers in that one, as was also true of prior wins over Saint Francis and Virginia Tech.

Penn State is averaging better than 10 steals per game but also shooting quite well, which is a lethal combination. Games against fellow bubble teams Northwestern and Indiana before our next projection should tell us a lot about the Nittany Lions' ceiling.

Negative Surprise: Indiana Hoosiers

Rutgers has also been a disappointment, likely to miss the NCAA tournament despite having freshman phenoms Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey at its disposal. However, preseason prognostications were all over the map on the Scarlet Knights with KenPom not even expecting them to be a top 60 team.

Indiana, on the other hand, was widely regarded as one of the top candidates to win the Big Ten, and the Hoosiers have yet to look the part.

Things tend to unravel in a hurry for this team. They were pulverized by Louisville in their Battle 4 Atlantis opening loss, trailed Gonzaga by 21 in the first half the following day en route to another blowout loss and were outscored 17-1 over the final 6:30 of their 17-point loss at Nebraska.

SEC Summary

13 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Auburn, 2. Tennessee, 5. Florida, 6. Alabama, 9. Kentucky, 10. Mississippi State, 16. Oklahoma, 17. Texas A&M, 31. Georgia, 32. Ole Miss, 40. Texas, 44. Arkansas, 46. Vanderbilt

Also Considered: Missouri, LSU, South Carolina

Positive Surprise: Florida Gators

Florida was also responsible for one of the biggest negative surprises of the season when the school newspaper published a damning report in early November about head coach Todd Golden facing sexual harassment/stalking allegations and a Title IX investigation.

If that has been a distraction in any way, though, you wouldn't know it from how well the team has played, sitting at 13-0 with all but one of those victories coming by at least a 13-point margin.

The Gators made a mockery of the ACC, beating each of Florida State, Wake Forest, Virginia and North Carolina. They also beat both Arizona State and Wichita State on neutral floors, cobbling together an impressive resume for a team that has only faced one top-50 foe.

They'll open SEC play Saturday at Kentucky in what could be an instant classic.

Negative Surprise: Texas Longhorns

To say that anything about the SEC's hot start has been a negative surprise feels a bit disingenuous, but we definitely were expecting more out of Texas than what the Longhorns have shown thus far.

Their 11-2 record looks fine enough, with losses to Connecticut (home) and Ohio State (neutral) that weren't terrible by any means. However, eight of those 11 wins came at home against opponents who never had a prayer of winning. And in the other three wins, Texas barely won at NC State, barely beat Syracuse on a neutral floor and barely beat Saint Joseph's on a neutral floor—none of which was a particularly good resume win, either.

We will find out in a hurry if this team is actually any good, opening SEC play with five consecutive projected losses: at Texas A&M, vs. Auburn, vs. Tennessee, at Oklahoma, at Florida. Even going 1-4 in that stretch would honestly be a little impressive.

Mid-Majors Summary (AAC, A-10, MVC, MWC, WCC)

7 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 14. Memphis, 18. Gonzaga, 21. Utah State, 29. Drake, 35. Dayton, 36. San Diego State, 47. Saint Mary's

Also Considered: Washington State; St. Bonaventure; Bradley; Rhode Island; Boise State; San Francisco

Positive Surprise: Drake Bulldogs

Drake went 28-7 last season, making the NCAA tournament for the third time in four years. But Drake lost all six of its leading scorers and its head coach from that team and was supposed to be a middle-of-the-pack team in the Missouri Valley Conference this season.

Instead, the Bulldogs replaced those six leading scorers with four D-II transfers, a JUCO transfer and a forward who averaged 7.5 points per game as a freshman at Wyoming last season and quite unexpectedly managed to win their first 12 games. They're one of four remaining undefeateds.

It's still looking like a coin flip between Drake and Bradley for who ultimately wins the MVC, but the Bulldogs have been one of the most remarkable stories of the first two months of this season. (Drake at Bradley on Jan. 8 is going to be a big one.)

Negative Surprise: UAB Blazers

In the American Athletic Conference's preseason coaches poll, UAB was selected ahead of Memphis as the slight favorite to win the league.

But while Memphis has emerged as a strong team that looks to be in the mix for a No. 3 or No. 4 seed, UAB is a 7-6 mess, still searching for its first win over a KenPom Top 200 foe.

Big man Yaxel Lendeborg is still a double-double machine, but the Blazers have been just plain awful on defense and do not appear to be in any shape to put together a repeat of the miracle run to an auto bid that they made last March.

Other 21 Leagues Summary

21 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 48. Liberty; 49. UC San Diego; 50. Furman; 51. Arkansas State; 52. McNeese; 53. Charleston; 54. Kent State; 55. Grand Canyon; 56. Columbia; 57. High Point; 58. Lipscomb; 59. North Dakota State; 60. Milwaukee; 61. UMass Lowell; 62. Northern Colorado; 63. Central Connecticut; 64. Norfolk State; 65. Marist; 66. Southern; 67. American; 68. Little Rock

Also Considered: UC Irvine

Positive Surprise: Liberty Flames

Liberty has enjoyed several KenPom Top 100 seasons over the past decade under Ritchie McKay, including an NCAA tournament victory as a No. 12 seed in 2019. But this might be the best Flames team to date, sitting at 12-1 with wins away from home over Kansas State, McNeese, Charleston and Seattle.

Their lone loss came in a wild overtime affair against Florida Atlantic, otherwise they'd be undefeated in advance of a conference slate where they are the projected favorite in every game.

They went 7-9 last year in their first season in Conference USA, but they certainly look like the team to beat in that league this year. Liberty might even be an at-large candidate if it manages to go something like 16-2 against that 18-game slate.

Negative Surprise: Vermont Catamounts

After opening the season with a road win over UAB, things quickly went off the rails for Vermont, destroyed by 51 at Auburn en route to losing eight of its next 13 games.

That includes losses to Iona, Colgate, Dartmouth and Fairfield, none of whom rank top 250 on KenPom. And that recent loss to Dartmouth really got out of hand with a final score of 84-54.

Strange times for the Catamounts, who had won at least 20 games in 15 of the past 16 seasons, the lone exception coming in 2020-21 when they only played 15 games and went 10-5.

They did start out 2-7 two years ago before going 21-4 the rest of the way, but that Vermont team never suffered the types of embarrassing losses that this one has. It's pretty clear at this point that UMass Lowell is the team to beat in the America East now.