It's not always the case that MLB's free-agent market is short on stars when a new year rolls around, but it is right now.
Step up to the plate, trade market. It's your time to shine.
We're going to pick the best fit for 10 trade chips who could be moved between now and Opening Day of the 2025 season. Each has already been tied to trade rumors and—unlike, say, Framber Valdez—has a non-zero chance of moving.
Each player's best fit is based on a variety of factors. Beyond just positional need, a player might fit a club for more specific reasons. Of course, there's also how teams line up as trading partners to consider.
Let's check these 10 players off in alphabetical order and pitch trade proposals as we go.
Note: All prospect rankings are according to B/R's Joel Reuter.
RHP Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
Age: 29
2024 Stats: Did not pitch
2025 Status: Year 4 of 5-year, $56 million deal with 2027 club option
Best Fit: San Francisco Giants
The Marlins aren't actively shopping Sandy Alcantara, but president of baseball operations Peter Bendix hit Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald with the "we're always listening" routine.
"We listen to everything," Bendix said. "Sandy is a really important piece for our organization. I'm really excited to see him pitch on Opening Day."
Though Alcantara's value isn't at a high point after he missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Marlins selling low on the 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner can't be ruled out. After all, they just did that with Jesús Luzardo.
The Giants are merely a speculative suitor for Alcantara, yet they stand out because they just took a swing at a Cy Young Award winner in free agency and missed.
Despite initial reports that they offered Corbin Burnes more than the $210 million he accepted from the Arizona Diamondbacks, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle says this is not the case.
Either way, the Giants still have a rotation hole that was formerly occupied by Blake Snell, a two-time Cy Young Award winner in his own right.
Though San Francisco would surely protect the one top-100 prospect among its talent inventory, it would have to prepare to give up real value if it went after Alcantara.
Trade Package: San Francisco Giants get RHP Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins get LHP Kyle Harrison, OF Luis Matos
3B Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals
Age: 33
2024 Stats: 152 G, 635 PA, 16 HR, 2 SB, .272 AVG, .325 OBP, .394 SLG
2025 Status: Year 7 of 9-year, $275 million deal
Best Fit: Boston Red Sox
There have already been two failed attempts to trade for Nolan Arenado.
The New York Yankees reportedly tried to base a deal around Marcus Stroman, but the Cardinals said no. Then the Houston Astros took a shot at Arenado, except this time he said no via his no-trade clause.
Notably, neither club is among the six teams Arenado is reportedly willing to play for. And with respect to the Southern California native's rumored fondness for the Los Angeles Dodgers, it's the Red Sox who stand out from the pack.
Lest anyone think of this as Rafael Devers erasure, it's frankly past time for Boston to move him across the diamond to first base. If the team doesn't agree, well, perhaps Arenado is serious about playing the cold corner for a new team.
What's for sure is that his stroke is perfect for Fenway Park. Right-handed pull power is his whole thing, and Statcast's Park Factors back up the Green Monster's reputation for aiding such hitters.
Even after the Garrett Crochet trade, the Red Sox remain loaded with young position players. That can only help if they pursue Arenado, as St. Louis' rejection of Stroman indicates that a bad-contract-swap involving, say, Masataka Yoshida is not happening.
Trade Package: Boston Red Sox get 3B Nolan Arenado, cash; St. Louis Cardinals get 2B Vaughn Grissom, INF Mikey Romero
1B Luis Arraez, San Diego Padres
Age: 27
2024 Stats: 150 G, 672 PA, 4 HR, 9 SB, .314 AVG, .346 OBP, .392 SLG
2025 Status: 3rd-year arbitration-eligible
Best Fit: Seattle Mariners
Luis Arraez has won back-to-back-to-back batting titles, but him being on this list isn't because of wishful thinking on the part of rival teams.
According to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Arraez is one of the players the Padres are actually open to trading. It makes some sense, if for no other reason than he projects to make $14.6 million in 2025.
As he produced just 1.0 rWAR this year, he's only worth that kind of money if a team is desperate for his bat-to-ball skills. He has been in the 100th percentile for whiff rate in each of the last four seasons.
Hence the Mariners, who you may have heard aren't very good at hitting the ball.
But just in case, know that Seattle hitters have ranked in the bottom five of the American League for strikeouts in each of the last six seasons. And right now, it so happens they have an opening at first base.
With their payroll potentially already maxed out, a cash-neutral deal would suit Seattle best. That could also work for the Padres, though probably only if they're able to use such a deal to effectively buy a prospect from the talent-rich Mariners.
Trade Package: Seattle Mariners get 1B Luis Arraez; San Diego Padres get DH Mitch Garver, INF Michael Arroyo (Mariners No. 6)
SS Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays
Age: 26
2024 Stats: 81 G, 336 PA, 4 HR, 5 SB, .225 AVG, .277 OBP, .322 SLG
2025 Status: Year 3 of 3-year, $33.6 million deal
Best Fit: Atlanta Braves
The Blue Jays are willing to listen on Bo Bichette, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, "but only for a high price."
That could be a cue for teams not to even bother calling about Bichette after the year he had, but it only takes one team to be high on his track record. Before this year, he was a two-time All-Star with a .299 career batting average.
Because he is slated for free agency after 2025, he only makes sense for win-now teams with serious needs at shortstop. To this end, the Braves stick out like the sorest of thumbs.
Orlando Arcia was an All-Star as recently as 2023, but he was an iffy selection even then and his stock has plummeted since. This year, he hit just .218 and produced 0.5 rWAR.
The Braves should otherwise be thinking big-picture. They were a super-team coming into this year, but injuries and unexpectedly poor performances reduced them to an 89-win shell. And so far this winter, they've been quiet as other NL contenders have loaded up.
There isn't a ton of talent in Atlanta's system, but there is plenty of pitching depth. That's what the Blue Jays should try to get at if the Braves call about Bichette.
Trade Package: Atlanta Braves get SS Bo Bichette; Toronto Blue Jays get LHP Cam Caminiti (Braves No. 4)
RHP Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners
Age: 32
2024 Stats: 30 GS, 175.1 IP, 158 H (25 HR), 175 K, 47 BB, 3..64 ERA
2025 Status: Year 3 of 5-year, $108 million deal with 2028 vesting option
Best Fit: Chicago Cubs
If the Mariners trade Luis Castillo, it won't be to simply offload his contract or score prospects who aren't major league-ready.
Per Rosenthal, this is the team's mantra for a Castillo trade: "We'll do it, but only if the return makes the team better."
This has reportedly led to frustration at what teams are willing to offer for Castillo, which is understandable. Sure, he is owed a bunch of money and his fastball is starting to lose some zip, but he's also a three-time All-Star who remains an effective workhorse.
The Cubs could use a guy like that. And according to Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of The Seattle Times, they have shown interest in him.
The North Siders' rotation is arguably good enough as is, but one thing it lacked this year was swing-and-miss. Only two starting staffs allowed a higher contact rate, whereas even this lesser version of Castillo was in the 53rd percentile for whiff rate.
It's in the Mariners' interest that the Cubs' farm system is loaded. So much so, in fact, that it would be worth paying down some of Castillo's remaining money to get at one of the better players within said system.
Trade Package: Chicago Cubs get RHP Luis Castillo, cash; Seattle Mariners get OF Owen Caissie (Cubs No. 4)
RHP Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres
Age: 29
2024 Stats: 33 GS, 189.1 IP, 137 H (18 HR), 224 K, 65 BB, 3.47 ERA
2025 Status: 3rd-year arbitration-eligible
Best Fit: Baltimore Orioles
This is an older rumor by now, but Dennis Lin of The Athletic reported during MLB's winter meetings that the Padres have explored Dylan Cease's trade value.
Cease wouldn't seem to be as much of a slam-dunk trade candidate as Arraez. Whereas the latter is pricey for a singles hitter, the former's projected $13.7 million salary for 2025 is very light for a pitcher with top-of-the-rotation credentials.
Still, there may be an opportunity for the Padres to bilk a desperate team. Like, for example, the Orioles.
According to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the O's were in on Cease even before they lost Corbin Burnes to the D-backs. With his exit now official, the need for an ace atop Baltimore's starting rotation is certainly that much more glaring.
As Cease is ticketed for free agency after 2025, the Orioles would be running the same play they ran on Burnes if they were to trade for him. It could prove to be an upgrade. Whereas Burnes is declining as a whiff artist, Cease was in the 92nd percentile for whiff rate this year.
Though Baltimore's farm system is not what it used to be, the organization still has more hitters than it has room for. San Diego should want in on that group.
Trade Package: Baltimore Orioles get RHP Dylan Cease; San Diego Padres get OF Heston Kjerstad, OF Enrique Bradfield Jr. (Orioles No. 5)
RHP Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals
Age: 30
2024 Stats: 65 G, 66.1 IP, 50 H (3 HR), 79 K, 23 BB, 2.04 ERA
2025 Status: 3rd-year arbitration-eligible
Best Fit: Arizona Diamondbacks
Sort of like Sandy Alcantara, Ryan Helsley isn't so much available as not unavailable.
"It's something we will always remain open-minded to, but our plan is to have him be part of our organization," president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic in December.
It is nonetheless not hard to imagine the Cardinals being swayed into moving Helsley. They're not exactly all-in on 2025, which will be the two-time All-Star closer's walk year.
According to Mark Feinsand, John Denton, and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com, one of the teams interested is the Diamondbacks. And they darn well should be.
Though they've fortified a rotation that was a weakness in 2024, they have yet to do the same with a bullpen that was a major drain on their win probability. A trade for Helsley would not only plug the leak, but also turn the pen into a potential strength.
The Snakes don't have a ton to barter with, but they could try to appeal to the Cardinals by offering a prospect who could be put to work right away in St. Louis.
Trade Package: Arizona Diamondbacks get RHP Ryan Helsley; St. Louis Cardinals get RHP Yilber Diaz (Diamondbacks No. 4)
RHP Pablo López, Minnesota Twins
Age: 28
2024 Stats: 32 GS, 185.1 IP, 180 H (26 HR), 198 K, 41 BB, 4.08 ERA
2025 Status: Year 2 of 4-year, $73.5 million deal
Best Fit: New York Mets
According to Jeff Passan of ESPN, Pablo López is another player who isn't being shopped but is being listened on.
This one isn't surprising. The most notable thing the Twins did this year was cut payroll. And with the team up for sale and payroll set to rise again in 2025, López and his $21.8 million salary seem ripe for cutting.
Less clear is which teams are in on the righty. But if they aren't already, the Mets should be.
Even after dropping $147 million on Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes, their rotation still looks one card short of a full deck. Depending on whether they go with a five- or six-man rotation, they can do better than David Peterson and Paul Blackburn.
López fits the bill in general, and one can imagine him working well with Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner. Mets hurlers leaned heavily on the sweeper under him this year, and López's own sweeper is in need of repair after a down year.
The Mets are so rich that the Twins could try to pair López with another player for maximum payroll relief. And yet, he should have enough surplus value on his own to bring a legit package back to the Twin Cities.
Trade Package: New York Mets get RHP Pablo López, C Christian Vázquez; Minnesota Twins get LHP David Peterson, SS Jett Williams (Mets No. 2), OF Drew Gilbert (Mets No. 7)
CF Luis Robert Jr., Chicago White Sox
Age: 27
2024 Stats: 100 G, 425 PA, 14 HR, 23 SB, .224 AVG, .278 OBP, .379 SLG
2025 Status: Year 6 of 6-year, $50 million deal with 2026-27 club options
Best Fit: Kansas City Royals
The White Sox's farm system has come a long way, ranking at No. 4 in MLB after the Garrett Crochet trade.
If the Pale Hose get their way, another prospect haul will come via Luis Robert Jr. As Bob Nightengale of USA Today heard from one rival general manager in November, Chicago has "a really high price tag on him."
That doesn't apply to his present value, but it does to his upside. Indeed, it was just last year that he hit 38 home runs, stole 20 bases and accumulated 5.0 rWAR.
This is purely speculation, but the Royals should try their hand at plucking Robert from their AL Central rivals.
They need offensive support for Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez just in general, but especially in center field. The position produced a .642 OPS and eight home runs this year, numbers that Robert easily cleared even amid his down year.
The Royals aren't rich in prospect talent, but one supposes that doesn't give them much to protect. And after a surprising run to the playoffs this year, they might as well go for broke.
Trade Package: Kansas City Royals get CF Luis Robert Jr.; Chicago White Sox get RHP Ben Kudrna (Royals No. 3), OF Gavin Cross (Royals No. 5)
RF Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs
Age: 30
2024 Stats: 132 G, 585 PA, 21 HR, 16 SB, .283 AVG, .366 OBP, .482 SLG
2025 Status: Year 3 of 5-year, $85 million deal
Best Fit: Detroit Tigers
The Cubs don't have to trade Seiya Suzuki, and Rosenthal says they are not inclined to.
However, within that same report is a note that Suzuki himself may be inclined to waive his no-trade clause if given the chance. That comes down to how he may be limited to DH duty after the Kyle Tucker trade, which may not be a role that suits him.
Perhaps all this is null now that the Dodgers no longer need Suzuki after re-signing Teoscar Hernández. But if any team is going to take the baton in the Suzuki sweepstakes, it should be the Tigers.
They're starting to creep into the free-agent market, with Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press linking them to Alex Bregman and Anthony Santander. Which is good, but the problem is that only one of those guys is a full-time right-handed hitter.
Here's why this matters: In terms of total run value, the Tigers got +27 from the left side and -63 from the right side in 2024. One of those things is not like the other.
Suzuki is among the best solutions for the Tigers on the trade market, and they have the prospects to chip away at whatever reluctance the Cubs have to move him. Detroit's system is No. 3 in all of MLB.
Trade Package: Detroit Tigers get RF Seiya Suzuki, cash; Chicago Cubs get 1B Spencer Torkelson, SS Bryce Rainer (Tigers No. 5)
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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