Over the past two seasons, it felt like the race for National Player of the Year in men's college basketball was already over before most teams began conference play, with Purdue's Zach Edey running away with that honor in both years.

It's a much different story this year, though we do have a relatively clear early favorite in Auburn's Johni Broome.

That could change in the blink of an eye. Not even for an injury, either. All it would take is one off night for Broome and/or a particularly dominant performance by a Cooper Flagg, Kam Jones or another member of our current top 10 for NPOY and it suddenly becomes a wide-open race once more.

One big thing to keep in mind when it comes to National Player of the Year candidates is that team success is a crucial component of the criteria for consideration, as the Wooden Award winner almost always comes from a team that earns a No. 4 seed or better in the NCAA tournament.

As such, you're going to encounter a few honorable mentions who are putting up incredible numbers on teams going nowhere fast.

Don't shoot the messenger, Dylan Harper fanatics. He might win Freshman of the Year and might be the No. 1 overall pick, but history suggests he won't be a factor for NPOY if Rutgers continues to struggle in spite of his heroics.

Statistics current through the start of play on Thursday, Jan. 2.

Honorable Mentions

Dylan Harper, Rutgers (22.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 4.8 APG)

Remember Ben Simmons? He had an incredible freshman season at LSU nine years ago, ending up as the USBWA Freshman of the Year and was the No. 1 pick in that year's draft. But LSU went 19-14 and missed the NCAA tournament, resulting in Simmons not even being named one of the 10 finalists for the Wooden Award. Team success is a rather key prerequisite here, and with the way things are going thus far for Rutgers, Harper could be headed for a similar fate. Maybe with another triple-double or three, though, he could keep things interesting.

Eric Dixon, Villanova (26.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.1 APG)

See: Harper, Dylan. Dixon is leading the nation in scoring, but he's doing so for a five-loss team that only has two wins worth mentioning. He might mess around and wind up as a second-team All-American, but there's no way he'll factor into the NPOY mix unless Villanova flips the script and goes on some kind of wild tear in Big East play.

Alex Karaban, UConn (16.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.7 BPG)
Liam McNeeley, UConn (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG)

Connecticut's quest for the three-peat fell off the radar a bit during that 0-3 run through the Maui Invitational, but it's gaining steam once more after an infinitely more impressive run through December. As the Huskies inch their way back up toward the projected No. 1 seed line, perhaps either Karaban or McNeeley will separate a bit from the other and become a top-tier candidate for NPOY.

RJ Davis, North Carolina (18.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 3.9 APG)

North Carolina has fallen short of expectations thus far, and it's at least partially thanks to Davis shooting just 9-for-44 from three-point range in their six losses. If he can turn a corner and get back to shooting like he did over the past three seasons, though, neither he nor the Tar Heels are so far gone that he needs to be removed from the conversation here. May well just be a great buy-low candidate, ready to strike.

Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois (16.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 5.3 APG)

The Illini's Lithuanian star entered Sunday's game against Chicago State on a six-game streak of 20-point performances, not to mention all of the assists and rebounds. It's a shame he couldn't quite carry them to victory over Tennessee, but it almost feels inevitable there will be a triple-double at some point in Big Ten play that really vaults him into the conversation for best in the nation, freshman or otherwise.

Bennett Stirtz, Drake (18.7 PPG, 6.2 APG, 4.2 RPG, 2.3 SPG)

It's a shame Drake couldn't keep its undefeated season going for another couple of weeks, as that would've really drawn national attention to how well Stirtz has been playing. Even in the New Year's Day loss at UIC, though, he went for 30 points and 12 assists, almost single-handedly carrying the Bulldogs to victory.

10. Ryan Nembhard, Gonzaga

Season Stats: 11.9 PPG, 9.5 APG, 3.3 RPG, 1.9 SPG, 36.4% 3PT

Signature Performance: 13 points, 11 assists, three rebounds, one steal, zero turnovers vs. Arizona State (Nov. 10)

There's a case to be made that Ryan Nembhard isn't even Gonzaga's MVP; that Graham Ike or Khalif Battle is the better NPOY candidate if you feel like including someone from this WCC juggernaut in the conversation.

If Nembhard can get back up to a double-digit average in assists, though, it's going to get an awful lot of national attention.

He did average 9.2 assists over the final 12 games of last season, beginning with the marquee win at Kentucky that turned Gonzaga's season around. This propensity for passing isn't some new-found phenomenon for him.

Nembhard has upped the ante, though, already with five points-assists double-doubles this season, accumulating more dimes (133) than field-goal attempts (129).

Against West Virginia, Indiana and Davidson in the Battle 4 Atlantis, Nembhard had a cumulative 39 assists, 24 points (on 19 shots) and 10 steals, tallying at least a dozen assists in each of those contests.

He is a solid shooter, though, making at least one triple in all but two games thus far. He's simply having more fun (and success) setting up teammates on a squad that ranks among the nation's best in points per game (87.3).

9. PJ Haggerty, Memphis

Season Stats: 22.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 3.5 APG, 2.0 SPG, 40.5% 3PT

Signature Performance: 27 points, five rebounds, five assists at Virginia (Dec. 18)

As was the case last year at Tulsa, PJ Haggerty is stuffing the stat sheet to a ridiculous degree. In fact, his per-game numbers are darn near identical to what he did as one of the best freshmen in the nation (21.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.9 SPG).

Instead of wasting away on a 16-15 team that barely finished top 200 on KenPom, though, now he's thriving for what might be a legitimate Final Four contender at Memphis.

Those Tigers have played maybe the toughest schedule in the country thus far, including a surprising runner-up finish in the Maui Invitational. In those games against Connecticut (win), Michigan State (win) and Auburn (loss), Haggerty went for a combined total of 65 points, 21 rebounds and 10 assists.

Per usual, he's doing a ton of his damage from the free-throw line. Only Zach Edey attempted more free throws than Haggerty's mark of 309 last year, and he's on pace for roughly the same total in 2024-25—and is making them at an 83 percent clip.

The big question is: Will Memphis still be relevant enough 10 weeks from now for Haggerty to be a real candidate for NPOY?

The Tigers were looking good for a possible No. 2 seed in mid-January last year, but they completely cratered against a weak AAC, losing eight of their final 15 games and missing the dance altogether. If Haggerty can not only prevent a similar collapse but carry them to something in the vicinity of a No. 3 seed, he's going to get a lot of love in the first-team All-Americans conversation.

8. Hunter Dickinson, Kansas

Season Stats: 15.1 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.4 BPG, 1.4 SPG

Signature Performance: 28 points, 12 rebounds, three steals vs. Michigan State (Nov. 12)

Unfortunately for Hunter Dickinson, he is presently just the second-most noteworthy fifth-year senior big man averaging at least 15 points and 10 rebounds per game for a top-10 team, well behind Auburn's Johni Broome in that regard.

Here's a fun fact, though: While Dickinson's per-game marks are a bit behind where he landed last season as a consensus second-team All-American, his per-40-minutes stats are better pretty much across the board. He's simply playing a few minutes fewer per game this season because the Jayhawks now have Flory Bidunga as a solid backup center.

Make no mistake about it, this double-double machine who does a bit of everything for a legitimate title contender remains a strong candidate for the Wooden Award, in spite of his infamous ejection in the showdown with Duke and his subsequent disappointing showing in the blowout loss at Creighton.

Dickinson is the heart and soul of this Kansas team, leading them in points, rebounds and blocks while ranking second in steals and third in assists. He was an unstoppable force in the early wins over North Carolina and Michigan State, and he almost messed around and had a triple-double a few weeks ago against NC State (21 points, 14 rebounds, seven assists).

If he continues to play that well against Big 12 competition—particularly the double dips against Houston and Iowa State—he'll be right there in the NPOY mix at the end of the year and might become a three-time consensus All-American.

7. Mark Sears, Alabama

Season Stats: 18.0 PPG, 4.0 APG, 3.1 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 34.4% 3PT

Signature Performance: 27 points, six rebounds, four assists, one turnover vs. Creighton (Dec. 14)

In the entire 2023-24 campaign, Mark Sears never had a game with an O-rating below 92, only twice checking in at 100 or below. That consistency as the leader of what was both one of the fastest-paced and most efficient offenses in the nation is what made him a consensus All-American and one of the preseason favorites for this year's NPOY trophies.

But there have been several rough games for Sears already this season, shooting a combined 2-for-17 from three-point range with seven turnovers between Alabama's losses to Purdue and Oregon, with a scoreless night against Illinois in the middle of those two duds.

As a result, he has slipped outside of the top five, even as Alabama jostles for a possible No. 1 seed.

When he's on, though, it's still a sight to behold.

Sears went for 20 points with a season-high seven assists in the road win over North Carolina. He scored 24 on back-to-back nights in victories over Houston and Rutgers. And he lit up Creighton for 27 points on 15 shots with just the one turnover.

And those are just the games against major-conference competition. He also scored at least 15 in each of Alabama's other six games, anchoring what is once again an efficiently up-tempo offensive assault.

Sears isn't one of the betting favorites at the moment, but this is very much a "gone but not forgotten" situation. He will have plenty of opportunities in SEC play to storm back into the mix with more gems against quality foes.

6. Braden Smith, Purdue

Season Stats: 14.5 PPG, 8.6 APG, 4.6 RPG, 2.2 SPG, 42.3% 3PT

Signature Performance: 34 points, 12 assists, four rebounds, three steals, two turnovers vs. Toledo (Dec. 29)

Braden Smith almost opened the regular season with a triple-double, going for 15 assists, 12 points and eight rebounds in a win over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.

It was his first of five points-assists double-doubles already, also going for 17 and 10 in the win over Alabama, 18 and 11 in the win over Ole Miss, had a 24 and 10 gem in a win over Maryland and the ridiculous stat line against Toledo above.

If forced to pick a Big Ten POY right now, Smith is probably the choice, even though freshmen Dylan Harper, Kasparas Jakucionis and Derik Queen have all been mighty impressive two months into what figure to be brief college careers.

Purdue needs him to be great pretty much every night, though.

The Boilermakers are a perfect 8-0 when Smith posts an O-rating of 110 or better, but 1-4 otherwise. That speaks volumes to how critical of a player he is, while also leaving us to wonder if Purdue will be good enough at the end of the year for him to even remotely factor into this race.

5. Keshon Gilbert, Iowa State

Season Stats: 16.3 PPG, 5.0 APG, 3.1 RPG, 1.3 SPG

Signature Performance: 24 points, seven assists, two rebounds, one turnover vs. Marquette (Dec. 4)

Last year, Iowa State played 25 games against teams that finished the year ranked in the KenPom top 100, scoring 80 or more points on just two of those occasions.

Thus far this season, though, the Cyclones have scored more than 80 points in every game but one, including marquee showdowns with Auburn and Marquette.

Part of that is the fact that the new frontcourt tandem of Joshua Jefferson and Dishon Jackson has been more of a force than Robert Jones and Tre King were last year.

The bigger reason Iowa State has become a top-five offense, however, has been the growth of Keshon Gilbert's game, drawing more fouls, doling out more assists and converting at a drastically higher rate on his two-point attempts.

In the Maui Invitational against Auburn, Dayton and Colorado, Gilbert shot a combined 17-for-22 from inside the arc, as well as 22-for-25 from the charity stripe. He did commit a total of nine turnovers, but pretty hard to argue with that level of efficiency.

He hasn't been quite the same ball hawk that he was on defense toward the end of last season, but Gilbert is still making a considerable impact on that end of the floor, too, with at least one steal in all but one game so far.

Turnover-forcing defense has been Iowa State's calling card since hiring T.J. Otzelberger four years ago, and that hasn't changed. But now that Gilbert is doing a decent Monte Morris impression on offense, this team feels like a much bigger threat for a deep run in March.

4. Chaz Lanier, Tennessee

Season Stats: 19.6 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.2 SPG, 45.9% 3PT

Signature Performance: 25 points, four rebounds, two steals, 7-10 3PT vs. Baylor (Nov. 22)

For the second consecutive year, Rick Barnes hit the jackpot in the transfer portal, replacing Dalton Knecht (Northern Colorado) with Chaz Lanier (North Florida) and not missing a beat.

If anything, Lanier has been even more valuable than his predecessor.

Knecht's scoring average was a bit higher (21.7 PPG), but that's pretty much entirely because he spent more time at the free-throw line, averaging 2.6 more made free throws per game than Lanier has thus far.

The new star of the Volunteers has been considerably more lethal from three-point range, though, darn near leading the nation in made triples (51).

Lanier is also more of an asset on defense than Knecht ever was, making him the perfect fit for still-undefeated Tennessee, which has yet to allow an opponent to score more than 70 points in a game.

The Vols did still manage to put together a top-five defense last year, but that was very much in spite of Knecht, fueled primarily by Jonas Aidoo, Josiah-Jordan James and Tobe Awaka who are no longer on the team. But Lanier is a key piece on both ends of the floor, which will be a must against the upcoming gauntlet of SEC play.

This is all after a bit of a slow start, too. After averaging 13.8 points and 2.5 made triples in his first four games as a Volunteer, Lanier is up to 22.2 PPG and 4.6 makes in his last nine contests.

3. Cooper Flagg, Duke

Season Stats: 16.9 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.7 SPG, 1.2 BPG

Signature Performance: 22 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, three steals, two blocks, zero turnovers vs. Auburn (Dec. 4)

Dating back to the 2010-11 season, Duke has had a sub-91 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on KenPom just twice: its current mark of 88.4 and the 89.3 rating in 2018-19 when Zion Williamson was leading the charge en route to winning the Wooden Award.

Physically, there's no comparing Cooper Flagg to Williamson. But if you want to talk about freshmen in the past decade who led the show both on offense and on defense for a team that might rank top-10 in efficiency on each end of the floor, Flagg is the 1B to Williamson's 1A on that list.

Per Sports Reference, Flagg ranks second on the Blue Devils in player efficiency rating (behind only Khaman Maluach and his ludicrous 82.6 percent success rate on two-point attempts) as well as second in defensive rating, narrowly behind frontcourt reserve and defensive specialist Maliq Brown in that department.

If he's going to overtake Johni Broome for NPOY, though, Flagg will need to start scoring a bit more efficiently. Flagg shooting 50.0 percent from inside the arc and 27.1 percent beyond it—while also averaging 2.2 turnovers per game—could be ample reason for voters to side with Broome.

However, if Duke can overtake Auburn in the race for the No. 1 overall seed—already holding that head-to-head victory in its back pocket—that could also swing things in Flagg's favor, even if he continues to average a modest 1.23 points per field-goal attempt.

2. Kam Jones, Marquette

Season Stats: 20.1 PPG, 6.6 APG, 4.7 RPG, 1.7 SPG, 34.3% 3PT

Signature Performance: 32 points, six assists, four steals, zero turnovers vs. Wisconsin (Dec. 7)

Kam Jones had been Marquette's leading scorer in each of the past two seasons, but no one quite knew what to expect as he made the transition from scoring wing to lead guard.

Lo and behold, it's as if he was born for this role.

Jones has become a much more aggressive driver, his rate of two-point attempts per 40 minutes increasing from 9.0 last year to 12.8 this season. Yet, he has been the furthest thing from a ball hog, averaging better than 4.2 assists per turnover and already racking up at least eight dimes in seven of 14 games played, including that triple-double in the win over Purdue in mid-November.

Compared to what Tyler Kolek did last season as a consensus All-American for Marquette, Jones' steals and rebounds rates are almost identical, his assist rate is slightly behind Kolek's mark of 7.7 per game, but Jones is averaging five more points and half as many turnovers.

Basically, he has become a better version of what was already a very good Kolek.

What could be interesting in this NPOY race is the notion of wins above replacement.

For as great as Cooper Flagg and Johni Broome are, both Duke and Auburn would still be pretty good even if you take those stars off those rosters. Take Jones away from Marquette, though, and the Golden Eagles would probably be sitting at around .500 right now. Instead, they're on the fringe of the No. 1 seed conversation, thanks to one of the most irreplaceable players in the game today.

1. Johni Broome, Auburn

Season Stats: 18.2 PPG, 11.5 RPG, 3.4 APG, 2.6 BPG

Signature Performance: 21 points, 20 rebounds, six assists, three blocks, zero turnovers vs. Ohio State (Dec. 14)

A big part of what makes Johni Broome the clear still-early favorite for NPOY is that every game against a quality opponent has been a signature performance.

In the win at Houston less than one week into the regular season, Broome put up a 20-9-5-3-2 line against what has been one of the best defenses in the nation for eight years running now. That Herculean effort quickly took Broome from borderline top 20 for NPOY in the preseason and turned him into a strong top-five option.

Comically, though, as far as KenPom O-Rating is concerned, that was Broome's worst game of the season. (Ignoring the Georgia State game in which he played two minutes due to injury.)

In fact, Broome has posted a 20-point double-double in each of his other six games against Quad 1 competition, and had a combined total of at least four blocks and assists in each of his first 11 games of the season.

It's surprising that Broome only averages 4.0 free-throw attempts per game, both because he's a bit of a liability at the charity stripe (59.6 percent) and because he's such a big part of everything that Auburn does.

Though he won't come anywhere close to attempting as many free throws as Zach Edey made last season, Broome's overall impact as the primary big man for this title contender is on par with what Edey did in winning back-to-back NPOYs, as well as Oscar Tshiebwe before him.