With Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, Jack Flaherty, Anthony Santander and plenty more still available in MLB Free Agency, we're all left to wonder which teams are going to be (or at least should be) willing and able to make at least one more big signing this winter.
It should be noted from the outset of this exercise that we're only interested in teams that reasonably could do enough else this offseason to become a serious threat to contend in 2025.
As such, we're not even considering the eight teams that presently have "To Make the Playoffs" odds of +400 or worse on DraftKings, namely the White Sox, Rockies, Marlins, Nationals, Angels, A's, Cardinals and Pirates. (Though, we do like the A's chances of making some noise in the AL West, as they appear to be serious about getting their payroll up to nine figures and already have a solid core in place.)
From the remaining list of 22 teams, what follows is a ranking of the top seven who figure to be in play for the biggest names left on the market, either because they theoretically have money to spend based on recent payroll history, clear holes on the roster to fill, or both.
7. Boston Red Sox
2024 Record: 81-81
Acquisitions: LHP Garrett Crochet, LHP Aroldis Chapman, RHP Walker Buehler, LHP Patrick Sandoval
Noteworthy Departures: OF Tyler O'Neill, RHP Kenley Jansen, RHP Chris Martin, RHP Nick Pivetta
Current Estimated Payroll: $171.3M
Three-Year Average Opening Day Payroll: $186.3M
Current DraftKings "To Make the Playoffs" Odds: -135
To Boston's credit, a lot of work has been put in over the past couple of weeks to finally do something about the years-long sad state of this starting rotation. Not only did the Red Sox make the big trade for Garrett Crochet, but they scooped up Walker Buehler on a one-year deal and took a flyer on Patrick Sandoval to enhance their depth.
Are they going to do anything about losing their team leader in home runs, though?
Or the departure of what had been their two most trusted relievers over the past two seasons?
On the latter front, they did sign wild card Aroldis Chapman and also have Liam Hendriks joining the mix after he missed all of 2024 and nearly all of 2023. Sure feels like they need at least one more bullpen arm, though.
As far as the bats go, second base is a huge question mark for the Red Sox, and pretty much all of their depth elsewhere is in the form of highly touted prospects who have yet to play in the majors.
It would take some getting used to after he spent the past seven years with the Yankees, but Gleyber Torres could be a great pickup for a Boston team that should have a fair amount of money left in its budget.
Sign him and maybe Tanner Scott and suddenly this team is in business in the loaded AL East.
6. Chicago Cubs
2024 Record: 83-79
Acquisitions: OF Kyle Tucker, LHP Matt Boyd, RHP Eli Morgan, C Carson Kelly, RHP Cody Poteet
Noteworthy Departures: 1B/OF Cody Bellinger, 1B/3B Isaac Paredes, RHP Jorge López, 3B Cam Smith, RHP Hayden Wesneski, OF Mike Tauchman
Current Estimated Payroll: $167.7M
Three-Year Average Opening Day Payroll: $180.7M
Current DraftKings "To Make the Playoffs" Odds: -140
Say this much for the Cubs: They've been about as busy this winter as the rest of the NL Central combined.
St. Louis has done absolutely nothing. The Brewers swapped Devin Williams for Nestor Cortes, and that's about it. Pittsburgh's 'big' move was trading three players for Spencer Horwitz. And aside from having Nick Martinez accept his qualifying offer, all the Reds have really done is trade Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer for Brady Singer.
Compared to that, signing Matt Boyd and effectively swapping Cody Bellinger for Kyle Tucker has been enough to make Chicago the slight favorite to win the division.
Have they done enough to legitimately vie for a World Series, though?
And are they seriously trying to penny pinch their win to a playoff spot, with a current projected payroll nearly $50M below where they started last season ($214.4M)?
It's possible that rookie Matt Shaw is the answer at third base. In 121 games between Double-A and Triple-A last season, he hit .284 with 21 home runs and 31 stolen bases, which sure sounds like an upgrade from last year's hot corner revolving door of Christopher Morel, Isaac Paredes, Nick Madrigal, David Bote, Patrick Wisdom and Miles Mastrobuoni.
What if Shaw isn't the answer, though, and the Cubs come to regret not opening their checkbook to sign Alex Bregman?
They have one of the better starting rotations in baseball, and just about every other spot in their lineup has either Silver Slugger or Gold Glove potential. But third base is a huge question mark. If they can turn that into a strength while also perhaps adding one more high-leverage reliever, they could reasonably hang with the Dodgers, Mets, Phillies and Braves in the NL.
5. Detroit Tigers
2024 Record: 86-76 (AL's No. 6 seed)
Acquisitions: RHP Alex Cobb
Noteworthy Departures: N/A
Current Estimated Payroll: $92.7M
Three-Year Average Opening Day Payroll: $118.3M
Current DraftKings "To Make the Playoffs" Odds: +120
On the one hand, just about everyone who contributed to Detroit's incredible run from August 11 through October 9 will be back again in 2025. It's merely a couple of inconsequential relievers no longer in the picture for the Tigers.
On the other hand, that run was fueled by smoke, mirrors, Tarik Skubal and a bullpen that pitched out of its mind for two straight months, and we rather expected the Tigers to aggressively make upgrades this offseason in order to be a serious threat to make it back to the postseason.
Thus far, though, all they've done is sign a 37-year-old starting pitcher in Alex Cobb, which could go every bit as poorly as their decision to sign Kenta Maeda last winter.
They do have high hopes for rookie pitchers Jackson Jobe and Ty Madden, though, both of whom made their MLB debuts late in the 2024 campaign. Between those two, Skubal, Cobb and the collection of Maeda, Reese Olson, Casey Mize and Keider Montero, the rotation should be solid.
But Detroit needs more offense, specifically of the right-handed power variety.
Enter (maybe) Alex Bregman.
With the Astros trading for two third basemen (Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith) and spending $60M on a first baseman (Christian Walker), it sure seems like they won't be re-signing Bregman. This arguably leaves Detroit as the favorite to sign him, but we shall see if they can actually get that deal done, with very likely the Mets, Cubs and Red Sox all still candidates in that bidding war.
Making a run at Anthony Santander could also be an option for Detroit. And getting one of those sluggers could well be difference between first place and fourth place in the wide-open AL Central.
4. New York Mets
2024 Record: 89-73 (NL's No. 6 seed)
Acquisitions: OF Juan Soto, RHP Frankie Montas, RHP Clay Holmes, OF Jose Siri, RHP Griffin Canning
Noteworthy Departures: 1B Pete Alonso, RHP Luis Severino, LHP Jose Quintana, OF Harrison Bader, IF Jose Iglesias, DH J.D. Martinez, OF/DH Jesse Winker, RHP Phil Maton, RHP Brooks Raley, RHP Drew Smith
Current Estimated Payroll: $236.3M
Three-Year Average Opening Day Payroll: $308.0M
Current DraftKings "To Make the Playoffs" Odds: -270
The New York Mets hit the great big, $765M home run of the offseason, signing Juan Soto through 2039 (assuming he doesn't opt out after 2029).
But if they accomplish nothing else this winter, are they going to be any better than last season?
Re-signing Sean Manaea (albeit at nearly double his 2024 salary) was a near must, but this starting rotation sans Luis Severino and Jose Quintana still leaves something to be desired, pinning a lot of hopes and dreams on A) Kodai Senga staying healthy, B) Clay Holmes making a seamless transition from closer to starter and C) Frankie Montas pitching better than he did last year.
They do have a deep stable of options to combat inevitable injury, but let's just say no one would presently expect the Mets to have the edge in starting pitching in a best-of-seven NLCS against the Dodgers, Phillies or Braves.
Even the lineup is slightly riddled with question marks.
Should be a solid top five in the order in Soto, Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos, Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Alvarez, but is the fourth time the charm for Brett Baty? What's the plan in center field? And are Jeff McNeil and Starling Marte still going to be big pieces of the puzzle, or are they leaning on youngsters Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña?
Again, a deep stable of options, but just a lot of iffy spots for a team that has had an Opening Day payroll around $100M higher than this over the past two seasons.
If the Mets can bring back Pete Alonso or bring in Corbin Burnes, things will look a whole heck of a lot better here. For now, though, another third-place finish in the NL East still seems likely.
3. Toronto Blue Jays
2024 Record: 74-88
Acquisitions: 2B Andrés Giménez, RHP Yimi García, RHP Nick Sandlin
Noteworthy Departures: RHP Jordan Romano, LHP Ryan Yarbrough, 1B Spencer Horwitz
Current Estimated Payroll: $193.1M
Three-Year Average Opening Day Payroll: $202.1M
Current DraftKings "To Make the Playoffs" Odds: +280
Pray tell, does anyone know what the Toronto Blue Jays are even trying to accomplish these days?
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Chris Bassitt and Chad Green are all about to enter their final season before free agency, with Kevin Gausman, George Springer, Daulton Varsho and Alejandro Kirk each one year behind them.
It should have been a serious 's--t or get off the pot' type of crossroads of an offseason for them, yet all they've managed to do is offend Guerrero with a reported $340M contract offer and block Will Wagner's path to everyday playing time by agreeing to take Andrés Giménez's back-loaded contract off Cleveland's hands.
Giménez does have an incredible glove at second base, but if the Blue Jays are serious about trying to improve by at least a dozen games to make it back to the postseason before Guerrero walks, they need to be upgrading their offense, not their defense. And, if anything, Giménez is a step backward for them in that department.
Both left field and designated hitter are also problem spots in the lineup, while the overall state of Toronto's bullpen isn't great, to say the least.
So, do they A) make a few more upgrades in the next two months, B) throw in the towel on re-signing Guerrero and trade him in order to avoid/expedite what could be a lengthy rebuild if they don't or C) continue to sit on their hands and just hope for the best?
After all the talk of Toronto as a possible destination for Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto over the past two offseasons, things are not looking great north of the border.
2. Seattle Mariners
2024 Record: 85-77
Acquisitions: N/A
Noteworthy Departures: 3B Josh Rojas, 2B Jorge Polanco, 3B Luis Urías, 1B/DH Justin Turner, RHP Yimi Garcia
Current Estimated Payroll: $142M
Three-Year Average Opening Day Payroll: $127M
Current DraftKings "To Make the Playoffs" Odds: +110
The Seattle Mariners paid 18 players at least $2M last season. But despite getting rid of half of them—the five departures listed above, as well as the retained money on Anthony DeSclafani, Ty France, Evan White and Ryne Stanek—they barely have two nickels to rub together in free agency.
That's because Julio Rodríguez's salary increased by $8M, the cost for Randy Arozarena is expected to balloon from $2.83M for a few months to $11.5M in his final year of arbitration eligibility, and the combined cost of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Cal Raleigh is expected to spike from $5.6M to $17.7M.
That's a nearly $30M increase for those five players alone, pretty well offsetting the 'savings' Seattle got from no longer rostering those other nine players and pretty well explaining why the Mariners have done a whole lot of nothing this winter, despite talk of them being a possible landing spot for a whole bunch of different free agent hitters.
That said, understanding that those five players are costing the team considerably more money than they did in 2024 doesn't make the team's pill of inaction any easier to swallow.
Letting Houston sign Christian Walker to a three-year, $60M deal was a tough one for Seattle's fans to accept, as this team very clearly needs a first baseman and almost certainly isn't going to pony up the necessary dough for Pete Alonso. They should've been able to find $20M per year to get Walker, even if it meant trading away the nearly $75M left on Luis Castillo's deal, as they have SP depth and desperately need bats.
Alas, this offense looks even worse than it did a year ago. And even though Houston seems to have taken a step backward this winter, it doesn't feel like Seattle is likely to capitalize on this AL West opening unless it adds a big bat or two.
1. San Francisco Giants
2024 Record: 80-82
Acquisitions: SS Willy Adames
Noteworthy Departures: LHP Blake Snell, OF Michael Conforto
Current Estimated Payroll: $157.3M
Three-Year Average Opening Day Payroll: $183.8M
Current DraftKings "To Make the Playoffs" Odds: +225
The Giants made one of the biggest splashes thus far this offseason with their signing of Willy Adames. They made it abundantly clear long before the Winter Meetings that upgrading at shortstop was a huge goal of theirs, and they got their man.
What's next, though?
Adames was a great first step for upgrading an offense that narrowly edged out the Rockies for fourth place in the NL West in runs scored this past season. They're hopeful that getting Jung Hoo Lee back after he missed the vast majority of 2024 will help, too.
That offense still has several question marks, though, and much more concerning is the fact that they haven't done anything to make up for Blake Snell opting out and going to the Dodgers.
There had been a lot of talk in the past few weeks about San Francisco emerging as the favorite to sign Corbin Burnes. However, until he's actually signed, sealed and delivered on that reunion with Adames, we're left to assume the G-Men are headed for another C-minus type of year spent hovering around .500.
They have the money to make it happen, though. Their current payroll is more than $50M below where they started last season, which means they could sign Burnes to solidify their rotation and also go grab Tanner Scott or Carlos Estévez, if they're not all the way sold on Ryan Walker at closer.
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