There are still a number of top-tier MLB free agents left on the market, but with each passing day, the pool of available players dwindles and teams become more inclined to go bargain hunting.
Outfielder Jurickson Profar (SD), starter Jack Flaherty (DET) and relievers Kirby Yates (TEX) and Luke Weaver (NYY) were among the best buy-low bargain signings last offseason, and Profar, Flaherty and Yates are all poised to cash in with significant raises on the open market once again this winter.
Which players have a chance to be this year's buy-low steals?
Ahead, we've highlighted seven players who could outperform others at their respective positions and provide value beyond their expected salary.
1B Josh Bell
Age: 32
Stats: 145 G, 98 OPS+, .249/.319/.405, 44 XBH (19 HR), 71 RBI, -0.6 WAR
Contract Prediction: one year, $5.5 million
While slugger Pete Alonso has still not signed, the offseason first base market kicked into gear last week as Christian Walker (3/$60 million), Paul Goldschmidt (1/$12.5 million) and Carlos Santana (1/$12 million) all signed new contracts and Josh Naylor (CLE to ARI) and Nathaniel Lowe (TEX to WAS) were traded.
Don't be surprised if Josh Bell outperforms at least a few of those players at a significantly lower price point.
His numbers last season don't jump off the page, but he picked up the pace after he was traded from the Marlins to the Diamondbacks at the deadline, posting a 121 OPS+ with five doubles, five home runs and 22 RBI in 41 games.
Bell has averaged 24 home runs and 87 RBI per 162 games over the course of his career, and the switch-hitter can be a relatively cheap source of power at first base or in the designated hitter role.
C Elias Díaz
Age: 34
Stats: 96 G, 88 OPS+, .265/.313/.382, 26 XBH (6 HR), 39 RBI, 1.3 WAR
Contract Prediction: one year, $3 million
Catcher Elias Díaz is not far removed from winning 2023 All-Star Game MVP honors when he hit a go-ahead, two-run home run off Baltimore Orioles closer Félix Bautista.
He finished the 2023 season hitting .267/.316/.409 with 25 doubles, 14 home runs and 72 RBI in 141 games, and while his production dipped after the break, he was still one of the more productive players on the Colorado Rockies roster.
Playing in the final season of a three-year, $14.5 million deal in 2024, he stayed put at the trade deadline, only to be released a few weeks later. The San Diego Padres plucked him from the scrapheap, and he ended up serving as the backup catcher on the postseason roster with Luis Campusano down with an injury.
In a market where Kyle Higashioka (2/$13.5 million), Travis d'Arnaud (2/$12 million) and Carson Kelly (2/$11.5 million) have each secured multi-year deals, while Danny Jansen (1/$8.5 million) and Gary Sanchez (1/$8.5 million) also netted decent paydays, Díaz has a chance to be a steal.
OF Austin Hays
Age: 29
Stats: 85 G, 101 OPS+, .255/.303/.396, 23 XBH (5 HR), 20 RBI, -0.1 WAR
Contract Prediction: one year, $8.5 million
One of the best players who was non-tendered this offseason, Austin Hays struggled after going from the Orioles to the Phillies at the trade deadline, but he has a solid track record of production.
He posted a 109 OPS+ and averaged 32 doubles, 18 home runs, 66 RBI and 2.7 WAR in the three years leading up to the 2024 campaign, and he was an All-Star in 2023.
He hit .354/.405/.537 in 90 plate appearances against left-handed pitching in 2024, and he has a .800 OPS for his career against southpaws, so if nothing else, he holds significant platoon appeal.
Michael Conforto (1/$17 million) and Max Kepler (1/$10 million) are two other veteran outfielders who could have been included on this list before they signed one-year deals earlier this offseason, and Hays' asking price should be somewhere in that same ballpark.
3B Yoán Moncada
Age: 29
Stats: 12 G, 117 OPS+, .275/.356/.400, 4 XBH (0 HR), 0 RBI, 0.3 WAR
Contract Prediction: one year, $1.5 million
One of the most hyped international prospects of all time, Yoan Moncada signed with the Boston Red Sox in the days before the hard-capped international bonus pool, landing a $31.5 million bonus that came with a matching tax penalty.
After emerging as an elite prospect, he was sent to the White Sox as the prospect centerpiece in the Chris Sale blockbuster, and he looked like a star on the rise when he logged a 5.2-WAR season in 2019 at the age of 24.
The White Sox inked him to a five-year, $70 million extension on the heels of that breakout performance, but he logged just 6.4 WAR in 404 games over the life of that contract while battling a variety of injuries.
His age and raw tools make him an intriguing buy-low flier, though he may need to earn his way onto an Opening Day roster this spring on a minor league pact.
RP Paul Sewald
Age: 34
Stats: 42 G, 16/20 SV, 4.31 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9, 9.8 K/9, 0.2 WAR
Contract Prediction: one year, $7 million
Heading into the 2024 season, Paul Sewald was poised to be one of the top relievers on the market this winter, but an inconsistent campaign in which he was demoted from the closer's role has left him needing to rebuild his stock.
In the three seasons prior to this year, he was one of the best late-inning arms in baseball, posting a 2.95 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 12.2 K/9 with 65 saves in 192 appearances with the Mariners and Diamondbacks.
A dip in his fastball velocity (92.2 to 91.4 mph) and fewer whiffs at his sweeper (30.9 to 25.0 percent whiff rate) contributed to his lackluster performance, but a change of scenery could help him reset and get back to his previous level of success.
Jordan Romano received a one-year, $8.5 million deal from the Phillies following an injury-plagued 2024 season with the Blue Jays that led to him being non-tendered, and that could be a useful comp for Sewald at the negotiating table.
SP Spencer Turnbull
Age: 32
Stats: 17 G, 7 GS, 3-0, 2.65 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 20 BB, 58 K, 54.1 IP, 1.2 WAR
Contract Prediction: one year, $5 million
An injury to Taijuan Walker last spring opened the door for Spencer Turnbull to start the year in the Phillies rotation after he signed a one-year, $2 million deal during the offseason, and he responded by posting a 1.67 ERA in 32.1 innings over six starts.
Despite that performance, he was moved back into a long relief role once Walker returned to action, and he suffered a lat strain at the end of June that ended up sidelining him for the remainder of the year.
He showed flashes early in his career when healthy, posting a 4.13 ERA and 3.67 FIP in 255 innings over 50 starts during the 2019, 2020 and 2021 seasons with the Tigers.
If Michael Soroka (1/$9 million) and Kyle Hendricks (1/$2.5 million) were able to secure guaranteed MLB deals, someone should be willing to roll the dice on Turnbull, even if it's just on a long relief role with a chance for some spot starts.
SP Trevor Williams
Age: 32
Stats: 13 GS, 6-1, 2.03 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 18 BB, 59 K, 66.2 IP, 2.6 WAR
Contract Prediction: one year, $10 million
Trevor Williams was shaping up to be a hot commodity at the trade deadline when he came out of the gates dealing in 2024.
In 11 starts over the first two months of the season, he went 5-0 with a 2.22 ERA in 56.2 innings, but his season came to an abrupt halt when he suffered a right flexor strain in his forearm.
That cost him the next three-plus months, but he returned in September with a pair of five-inning starts, allowing six hits and one earned run to prove his health going into the offseason and free agency.
Williams signed a two-year, $13 million deal last time he was a free agent, and while he might prefer a one-year pact and a chance to prove himself this time around, a raise over the AAV of his previous deal is not out of the question.
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