With nonconference play just about wrapped up, the field for the 2025 men's NCAA tournament is coming more into focus by the day, with Auburn, Tennessee, Iowa State and Duke looking solid as the projected No. 1 seeds.

It's still relatively early in the campaign, of course. Plenty of time remaining for things to change, and drastically so.

Around this time last year, undefeated Oklahoma was projected for a No. 2 seed, but the Sooners ended up missing the dance. Will this year's still-unblemished Oklahoma have better luck?

At this point in the season, predictive (or QUAL) metrics (KenPom, Torvik and BPI) still carry a little more weight on the team sheets than the resume (or RES) metrics (SOR, KPI and WAB) do, but all six metrics—as well as quadrant-based records and strength of schedule—factor into the seeding process. By early March, however, the RES metrics will become more important than the QUAL metrics.

Also of note, the projected auto bids from each of the 31 conferences will eventually be based entirely on conference record. For 19 of the leagues, though, conference play has not yet begun, so we're simply rolling with the highest-rated team in the predictive metrics as each league's projected champ. We'll make the switch over to basing auto projections on conference records in our Jan. 7 projection.

With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some brief commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, we have a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.

The Projected Bracket

EAST REGION (Newark)

Milwaukee, WI
1. Iowa State vs. 16. Marist/Southern
8. Utah State vs. 9. Georgia

Providence, RI
4. Connecticut vs. 13. Charleston
5. Purdue vs. 12. Arizona State / Vanderbilt

Seattle, WA
3. Gonzaga vs. 14. Lipscomb
6. Maryland vs. 11. Arkansas

Raleigh, NC
2. Florida vs. 15. Northern Colorado
7. Clemson vs. 10. Ohio State

MIDWEST REGION (Indianapolis)

Lexington, KY
1. Tennessee vs. 16. Central Connecticut
8. St. John's vs. 9. Drake

Denver, CO
4. Oklahoma vs. 13. Arkansas State
5. UCLA vs. 12. UC San Diego

Cleveland, OH
3. Kentucky vs. 14. Columbia
6. Cincinnati vs. 11. Nebraska / Saint Mary's

Wichita, KS
2. Kansas vs. 15. Milwaukee
7. Memphis vs. 10. Texas

SOUTH REGION (Atlanta)

Lexington, KY
1. Auburn vs. 16. American / Little Rock
8. San Diego State vs. 9. West Virginia

Providence, RI
4. Texas A&M vs. 13. McNeese
5. Michigan State vs. 12. Liberty

Wichita, KS
3. Mississippi State vs. 14. High Point
6. Baylor vs. 11. SMU

Cleveland, OH
2. Marquette vs. 15. UMass Lowell
7. Illinois vs. 10. North Carolina

WEST REGION (San Francisco)

Raleigh, NC
1. Duke vs. 16. Norfolk State
8. Wisconsin vs. 9. Texas Tech

Seattle, WA
4. Oregon vs. 13. Kent State
5. Pittsburgh vs. 12. Furman

Denver, CO
3. Houston vs. 14. Grand Canyon
6. Ole Miss vs. 11. Penn State

Milwaukee, WI
2. Alabama vs. 15. North Dakota State
7. Michigan vs. 10. Dayton

Bracketing principles note:

With both the Big Ten and SEC projected for more than 10 teams each, it's worth pointing out this note from the NCAA's bracketing principles and procedures:

"Teams from the same conference may play each other as early as the second round if they played no more than once during the regular season and conference tournament."

Ideally, this wouldn't happen, but there may be some spots in which it is simply unavoidable.

In this particular projection, things shook out in just the right way so as to avoid any such scenarios. Don't bet on that happening on a regular basis, though.

Ranking the No. 1 Seeds

1. Auburn Tigers (11-1, NET: 1, RES: 1.3, QUAL: 1.0)

2. Tennessee Volunteers (12-0, NET: 2, RES: 5.3, QUAL: 3.7)

3. Iowa State Cyclones (10-1, NET: 8, RES: 11.7, QUAL: 6.3)

4. Duke Blue Devils (10-2, NET: 3, RES: 9.3, QUAL: 2.7)

5. Florida Gators (12-0, NET: 4, RES: 6.3, QUAL: 9.0)

6. Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2, NET: 10, RES: 5.0, QUAL: 9.0)

No changes in the top three spots.

Auburn improved what was already indisputably the best resume in the nation with an 18-point victory (and it wasn't even that close) over Purdue in Birmingham. The Tigers now have six Quad 1 wins, good for two more than their closest challengers in that category.

Auburn also annihilated an overmatched opponent (Georgia State), as did Tennessee (Western Carolina) and Iowa State (Morgan State) once each in the past week. The Vols also rallied from a six-point halftime deficit against MTSU for what ended up being an 18-point win to remain undefeated.

Following a blowout loss at the hands of Ohio State, though, Kentucky dropped from what had been its perch as the fourth No. 1 seed, paving the way for Duke to take that spot after its blowout wins over George Mason and Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils previously beat Auburn in Durham and won road games against both Arizona and Louisville, with close neutral losses to Kansas and Kentucky their lone blemishes.

One team without any blemishes is Florida, which moved to 12-0 with victories over North Carolina and North Florida. The Gators have yet to play a Quad 1A game, which hurts their case for a No. 1 seed. Won't need to wait much longer for that, though, as they'll open SEC play with back-to-back games against Kentucky (road) and Tennessee (home).

Lastly, Alabama got an unexpected scare in its road game against North Dakota, but the Crimson Tide survived before turning around and smoking a solid Kent State team on Sunday. They've made it through a gauntlet of a nonconference schedule largely unscathed and with three Quad 1A wins to show for their scheduling effort. This very well could still be the team to beat in the preposterously loaded SEC.

10 Words on Each of the 10 'Bubbliest' Teams

Fifth-to-Last In: Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2)—Will soon begin SEC play on the road against Tennessee.

Fourth-to-Last In: Arizona State Sun Devils (9-2)—Held serve this week with a 16-point win at Massachusetts.

Third-to-Last In: Vanderbilt Commodores (11-1)—Need some quality wins eventually, but one-loss Vandy sneaks in.

Second-to-Last In: Saint Mary's Gaels (10-3)—Has not been the same since destroying USC on Thanksgiving.

Last Team In: Nebraska Cornhuskers (8-2)—Winning Diamond Head Classic would provide a decent resume boost.

****CUT LINE****

First Team Out: Missouri Tigers (10-2)—Fell short against Illinois and falls just out for now.

Second Team Out: Iowa Hawkeyes (9-3)—Winless in Q1 games, but otherwise undefeated; classic bubble resume.

Third Team Out: LSU Tigers (10-2)—In same boat as Iowa, but with slightly worse metrics.

Fourth Team Out: Creighton Bluejays (8-5)—Pummeled by Georgetown, but saved some face by beating Villanova.

Fifth Team Out: Washington State Cougars (10-3)—Overall resume still decent following ugly rivalry loss to Washington.

ACC Summary

5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 4. Duke; 19. Pittsburgh; 26. Clemson; 39. North Carolina; 41. SMU

Also Considered: Louisville

Biggest Change: SMU Climbs; Clemson Slides

Let's start with the good news in the ACC: SMU—our last team in the projected field one week ago—picked up somewhat of a statement win in improving to 2-0 in league play.

Yes, the Mustangs were supposed to win their game against Boston College, which KenPom rates as the worst team among the five major conferences. However, winning by 26 on the road as an 8.5-point favorite was a good, old-fashioned, predictive metrics booster. SMU is now top 50 across the board and is one home game against Longwood away from carrying a seven-game winning streak into a massive back-to-back stretch against Duke and North Carolina.

While SMU's case for a bid grew stronger, Clemson suffered a second consecutive overtime loss, following up last weekend's home loss to Memphis with a rivalry misstep at South Carolina.

The Tigers do still have that great home win over Kentucky, as well as a neutral-site victory over Penn State that should hold a fair amount of value through to Selection Sunday. But they end up 8-3 in nonconference play (also lost at Boise State) and have slipped considerably from where they were situated 10 days ago.

Lastly, no real change for North Carolina after a 'neutral' loss to Florida in Charlotte and a neutral victory over UCLA in NYC. The Tar Heels absolutely needed to win one of those games, though, lest they fall to 6-6 overall with just the one win over Dayton that bears mentioning. Instead, they do at least have two quality wins to buoy their quintet of Quad 1A losses.

Big 12 Summary

8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 3. Iowa State; 7. Kansas; 12. Houston; 21. Cincinnati; 24. Baylor; 35. Texas Tech; 36. West Virginia; 44. Arizona State

Also Considered: BYU; Colorado; UCF; Arizona

Biggest Change: Cincinnati picks up a key W

It was mostly a quiet week in the Big 12, with the 10 teams who were either in or "also considered" for last week's projected field going a combined 11-0, entirely against non-major competition.

Ten of those 11 wins were great big nothing burgers against teams ranked outside the KenPom top 150. Even Arizona State's 16-point road win over Massachusetts (entered the game ranked 201st on KenPom) really just maintained the status quo for the Sun Devils.

The substantial exception to the rule was Cincinnati's 66-59 win over Dayton.

It'd be a little dramatic to say the Bearcats needed what might not even be a Quad 1 win when all is said and done. However, this is a team that knows all too well what can happen when you enter league play with two relatively acceptable losses and nary a win worth a darn.

Had Cincinnati lost to Dayton again this year, it would have been in the exact same position as it was 12 months ago, when going 9-12 in Big 12 play (including the conference tournament) wasn't enough for a bid, despite a top 40 ranking both in NET and KenPom.

With the win over the Flyers, though, the Bearcats now have a little bit of breathing room at 10-1, even against a nonconference SOS that is likely to hover in the 250-300 range. They climbed two seed lines, up to a No. 6 seed.

Big East Summary

3 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 8. Marquette; 14. Connecticut; 29. St. John's

Also Considered: Creighton; Georgetown

Biggest Change: Bahgawd, That's Georgetown's Music

From Dec. 12, 2021, through the end of last season, Georgetown lost 61 consecutive games against opponents who finished the year ranked in the KenPom top 110—plus eight losses to teams outside of that club.

And while the Hoyas did start this season 7-2 (or better) for the first time since 2018-19, it was hard to get excited over seven wins against teams presently ranked well outside the KenPom top 200, considering they were juxtaposed with a 21-point loss to Notre Dame and a 13-point loss to West Virginia.

In the past 10 days, though, something finally snapped, in a good way.

Georgetown won at Syracuse two Saturdays ago, which was 100th on KenPom at the time of the game. Four days after that, the Hoyas laid the smackdown on Creighton for an 81-57 victory over what was the 40th ranked team on KenPom.

Georgetown didn't even have Harvard transfer Malik Mack (lower body injury) for that game, either, and he's averaging better than 12 points, four rebounds and four assists per game for them. The Hoyas did have Micah Peavy, though, whose line of 20 points, eight assists, eight rebounds and seven steals was ludicrous.

And then on Sunday night, Georgetown almost messed around and blew an 11-point lead in the final three minutes at Seton Hall, but narrowly survived 61-60. They are now 2-0 in Big East play after going 4-55 over the previous three seasons.

All of a sudden, not only is Georgetown no longer languishing in the Big East basement with DePaul, but the Hoyas have surprisingly catapulted into the at-large conversation. They aren't quite in the projected field yet, but if they can actually pull it off after three consecutive years with fewer than 10 wins, go ahead and put Ed Cooley firmly in the mix for national coach of the year.

Big Ten Summary

11 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 13. Oregon; 17. UCLA; 18. Michigan State; 20. Purdue; 23. Maryland; 27. Michigan; 28. Illinois; 32. Wisconsin; 38. Ohio State; 42. Penn State; 47. Nebraska

Also Considered: Iowa; Northwestern; Indiana

Biggest Change: Buckeyes Blow Out Big Blue Nation

Plenty to nosh on from the past week in the Big Ten.

UCLA blew a big second-half lead in its loss to North Carolina, this coming a few days after Michigan blew a big second-half lead against Oklahoma. Purdue got smoked by Auburn. But Maryland and Michigan State each scored a pair of blowout wins, as the logjam of teams jockeying for the title of best in the conference approaches max capacity.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, Rutgers might be just about dead, dropping to 7-5 after a hard-fought loss to Princeton. There are going to be nights where the Scarlet Knights knock off a contender, but they probably need to go at least 12-7 the rest of the way, and good luck with that when KenPom only has them projected as the favorite in two of their remaining 18 league games.

The biggest story by far, though, was Ohio State's beatdown of Kentucky in the CBS Sports Classic.

Even without Meechie Johnson who took a leave of absence from the team earlier in the week, the Buckeyes got to the rim whenever they darn well pleased. And they made life miserable for the Wildcats along the perimeter on the other end of the floor. Not only did Kentucky shoot 4-for-22 from three-point range, but it also missed 16 shots classified as layups, unable to ever get into any kind of groove.

The loss hurt Kentucky's seed, but it wasn't a devastating blow for the Wildcats by any means.

It was colossal for Ohio State, though, which entered the game at 7-4 overall with a solid opening-night victory over Texas, an OT home loss to Pittsburgh and a trio of blowout losses to Auburn, Maryland and Texas A&M. Another loss would have just about buried the Buckeyes, but the 20-point victory was instead quite the jolt from a defibrillator.

SEC Summary

13 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Auburn; 2. Tennessee; 5. Florida; 6. Alabama; 9. Kentucky; 10. Mississippi State; 15. Oklahoma; 16. Texas A&M; 22. Ole Miss; 33. Georgia; 40. Texas; 43. Arkansas; 45. Vanderbilt

Also Considered: Missouri; LSU

Biggest Change: Ho Hum, More SEC Dominance

Yes, Kentucky got punched in the mouth by Ohio State. And, yes, Missouri was unable to win its Braggin' Right showdown with Illinois.

Aside from that, though, it was another week of perfection for the SEC, which added to its stockpile of quality wins.

Auburn annihilated Purdue to remain the No. 1 overall seed. Florida knocked off North Carolina in Charlotte and pummeled North Florida by 54 to remain undefeated and a viable candidate for a No. 1 seed. Oklahoma also maintained its donut in the loss column with a come-from-behind victory over Michigan. Even projected last-place finisher South Carolina joined the quality wins party with an overtime victory over Clemson, before also improving to 9-3 with a win over Radford.

Maybe the biggest winner of the week, however, was Mississippi State going on the road and beating Memphis by 13.

In recent close calls against Prairie View A&M and McNeese, the Bulldogs gave away most of the good will they earned from that 33-point blowout of Pittsburgh in the ACC-SEC Challenge. Between beating up on Central Michigan and Memphis in the past week, though, Mississippi State's resume is looking mighty fine again.

It certainly didn't hurt MSU's case that SMU made a big leap in the NET with its blowout of Boston College. Because of that, Mississippi State's November win at SMU was elevated to Quad 1A status, making the Bulldogs one of just three teams in the country with multiple Q1A wins and fewer than two losses. The others are No. 1 overall seed Auburn and No. 2 overall seed Tennessee.

Mid-Majors Summary (AAC, A-10, MVC, MWC, WCC)

7 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 11. Gonzaga; 25. Memphis; 30 Utah State; 31. San Diego State; 34. Drake; 37. Dayton; 46. Saint Mary's

Also Considered: Washington State; St. Bonaventure; Bradley; Rhode Island; Boise State; San Francisco

Biggest Change: Drake Improves to 11-0

Playing what was effectively a road game against Kansas State in Kansas City, Drake's quest for an undefeated season was supposed to come to an end this past Tuesday.

Not only did the Bulldogs beat the Wildcats, though, they did the seemingly impossible, handing Jerome Tang an overtime loss after he had gone a perfect 12-0 in overtime in his first two seasons at KSU.

It shouldn't have come to that, as Drake raced out to an early 29-9 lead before giving it all away. But it was Bennett Stirtz delivering the goods at the end of yet another ironman performance, playing all 45 minutes and hitting the game-winning triple with just a few ticks left in OT.

Excluding the non-D1 games against St. Ambrose and York NE, Stirtz is now averaging 40.4 minutes played per game, playing each and every minute of their last eight D1 games. Mitch Mascari hardly leaves the court, either, also playing all 45 minutes against Kansas State for a game-high 25 points.

Following a Saturday win over Nobody U (Green Bay), Drake is one of just four undefeateds left in the nation, and the only one that doesn't play in the SEC.

In addition to the win at Kansas State, the Bulldogs previously beat Miami, Florida Atlantic and Vanderbilt (still Vandy's only loss of the season) in winning the Charleston Classic, and have put together one heck of an at-large profile.

They'll likely lose at Bradley on Jan. 8. But who knows? Maybe this Missouri Valley squad can repeat what Wichita State did 11 years ago.

The Other 21 Leagues Summary

21 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 148. Liberty; 49. UC San Diego; 50. Furman; 51. Arkansas State; 52. McNeese; 53. Charleston; 54. Kent State; 55. Grand Canyon; 56. Columbia; 57. High Point; 58. Lipscomb; 59. North Dakota State; 60. Milwaukee; 61. UMass Lowell; 62. Northern Colorado; 63. Central Connecticut; 64. Norfolk State; 65. Marist; 66. Southern; 67. American; 68. Little Rock

Also Considered: UC Irvine

Biggest Change: UC San Diego Enters the Chat

Less than two weeks ago, it looked like the Big West was going to run through UC Irvine. The Anteaters were 9-0, had one of the most efficient defenses in the nation and would have become a somewhat legitimate threat to run the table if they had survived their road game against Oregon State on Dec. 14.

But they didn't, losing by 12 to the Beavers before also losing by 16 at Duquesne this past Saturday.

Meanwhile, UC San Diego pushed its winning streak to nine games with road victories over Idaho, Utah State and San Diego in the span of seven days.

The first and third games there are kind of whatever, but winning that middle game at Utah State was something, putting an end to the Aggies' perfect season after a 10-0 start.

You might recall UCSD also had San Diego State on the ropes early in the season. The Tritons were up six late in that one before the Aztecs went on a 15-2 run in ultimately holding serve for a five-point victory.

UC San Diego's turnover-forcing defense and two-headed attack led by Tyler McGhie and Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones is no joke. The Tritons are racking up 10.8 steals and a total of 16.4 turnovers forced per game while only committing 9.2 turnovers on average, and the dynamic duo takes it from there with better than 35 PPG combined.

This is the first year that the Tritons are eligible for the NCAA tournament, finally completing their four-year reclassification process last season. And consider this your three months early warning that this team could be a serious problem if it manages to win the Big West tournament to secure a No. 12 or No. 13 seed.