Corbin Burnes averaged 238.5 strikeouts between 2021 and 2022, winning the NL Cy Young Award in the first of those two campaigns.

The 30-year-old hasn't generated the same amount of swing and miss over the last two years, averaging 190.5 strikeouts over a pair of campaigns split between the Milwaukee Brewers and Baltimore Orioles.

That's led to some conversation about just how enticing of a free agent he is.

Well, pitchers do typically have to evolve over the course of their career. If this is what Burnes is now, so be it. Yes, there have been less strikeouts the past two seasons. He still has topped 190 innings pitched and been an All-Star in each season, posting a 3.15 combined ERA over 64 starts. He just finished fifth in AL Cy Young Award voting this past season.

At the outset of the offseason, B/R projected a seven-year, $224 million deal for Burnes, who was ranked behind only Juan Soto in terms of free agents this offseason. It's less clear if he'll get that type of deal at this stage, but whoever signs him will probably make out well.

Here's a look at the five most likely suitors for Burnes.

5. Chicago Cubs

Given the Chicago Cubs won just 83 games a year ago, it would seem they should be higher on this list. A rotation with Burnes, Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele at the top of it would make them heavy favorites to win the NL Central in 2025.

Burnes makes even more sense for the Cubs when you consider they are only guaranteed one season with the recently acquired Kyle Tucker. Chicago is also led by Craig Counsell, who managed Burnes during his six years in Milwaukee.

We're just a little skeptical that the Ricketts family will be willing to make the necessary investment to sign him. The Cubs' place on this list reflects that.

Maybe president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer will convince them to pony up in this case, but we'll believe it when we see it.

4. Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have already signed Blake Snell this offseason, have Yoshinobu Yamamoto entering his second season and will get the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow and Tony Gonsolin back from injury. They are an unlikely landing spot for Burnes right now.

But if Burnes lingers on the market to the point where he considers signing a short-term deal with an early opt-out like Snell did last offseason, can you really rule out the Dodgers jumping in?

For as loaded as the rotation already looks on paper, it's hardly a durable group, as Los Angeles found out in 2024.

Maybe that isn't a huge concern for the Dodgers, who seem to believe you need 10-plus starters to get through a season in today's game. But it sure would feel great to have a workhorse you feel comfortable about giving you 200-ish innings atop said rotation.

Burnes is from Bakersfield, which is about two hours from L.A. Surely, he would like to pitch in California, especially if it's for the World Series champions.

All we're saying is don't scoff at the possibility, however remote it might seem.

3. Baltimore Orioles

The Angelos family no longer owns the Orioles, or there would be a zero percent chance Burnes would return to Baltimore.

It still feels unlikely that new owner David Rubenstein opens up the checkbook to the extent it would take to re-sign Burnes, but it would build up some incredible trust with the fanbase as the O's try to maximize their window with Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman.

The Orioles have added Japanese star Tomoyuki Sugano in free agency, but the top of their rotation still looks pretty suspect.

Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez both have injury histories. Kyle Bradish had Tommy John surgery this past June, so if he pitches at all in 2025, it probably won't be until after the All-Star break. It would be a massive loss if Burnes departs.

So we won't altogether rule out a return, particularly in a market where there doesn't seem to be one team that's hell-bent on adding Burnes.

Still, the most likely scenario is that general manager Mike Elias—who has made his name off of incredible player development in Houston and Baltimore—will collect the draft compensation the Orioles would be entitled to if Burnes signs elsewhere because he declined the qualifying offer.

2. Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays were in on Shohei Ohtani last offseason, and Juan Soto this offseason. Clearly, they are motivated to try to land a star, particularly after finishing last in the crowded AL East a year ago.

You can make an argument that they would be better off taking a step back in 2025 and shopping Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and/or Bo Bichette, both of whom can become free agents after next season.

That doesn't appear to be the path president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins are going to take. While it doesn't sound like trading Bichette is completely off the table after landing Andrés Giménez from the Cleveland Guardians, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently reported the Blue Jays are trying to reach a long-term extension to keep Guerrero in the 6.

One way to convince Guerrero to stay might be to sign another star to a long-term contract, and Burnes would fit that bill. He could headline Toronto's rotation, which also includes Kevin Gausman, Bowden Francis, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt. That would be a very loaded rotation, perhaps so deep that the Blue Jays could move either Gausman or Bassitt for another piece(s) to help their roster in 2025.

The Blue Jays got to watch Burnes in their division for a season, and signing him would not only help them to improve their roster in 2025 but also weaken one of the teams they are chasing in the AL East.

1. San Francisco Giants

It will be interesting to see just how much new president of baseball operations Buster Posey A) understands and B) cares about the draft ramifications of signing two free agents who declined qualifying offers.

The Giants have already inked shortstop Willy Adames to a seven-year, $182 million deal, which means they had to surrender their second- and fifth-round picks in the 2025 draft, in addition to $1 million from their international signing bonus pool because he rejected the qualifying offer the Brewers issued him.

To reunite Burnes with Adames in San Francisco, the Giants would have to give up their third- and sixth-round picks in 2025. That would gut their draft class in the coming year.

But it's hard not to like the fit of Burnes—who played collegiately at St. Mary's College of California, which is less than 25 miles from San Francisco—on the Giants. He would replace Snell in the starting rotation, giving the club an elite one-two punch with Logan Webb in a starting rotation that will also include Robbie Ray, Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks.

Again, there would be stiff penalties for player development if the Giants signed Burnes. But if they want to compete in a stacked NL West with the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks next season, signing him would increase their chances.