Bleacher Report

Week 16 NFL Playoff Picture: AFC, NFC Bracket Scenarios After Saturday's Games

Paul Kasabian

Week 16 continued on Saturday with the Kansas City Chiefs beating the Houston Texans 27-19 and the Baltimore Ravens dispatching the Pittsburgh Steelers 34-17.

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for 260 yards and a touchdown and rushed for one more score to lead Kansas City to an NFL-best 14-1 record.

In the nightcap, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson threw for 207 yards and three scores while Derrick Henry accounted for 189 total yards to pull Baltimore even with Pittsburgh at 10-5 atop the AFC North.

With the Los Angeles Chargers beating the Denver Broncos 34-27 to start the week, the AFC playoff picture got a little more clarity as the regular season starts nearing its end.

Here's a look at how that shakes out right now, alongside a look at how the NFC is shaping up as well.

AFC Standings

David Eulitt/Getty Images

AFC Playoff Bracket

1. Kansas City Chiefs (bye)

7. Denver Broncos at 2. Buffalo Bills

6. Los Angeles Chargers at 3. Pittsburgh Steelers

5. Baltimore Ravens at 4. Houston Texans

AFC Playoff Standings

Division Leaders

1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-1; clinched AFC West)

2. Buffalo Bills (11-3; clinched AFC East)

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5; lead AFC North, clinched playoff berth)

4. Houston Texans (9-6; clinched AFC South)

Wild Card Race

5. Baltimore Ravens (10-5, clinched playoff berth)

6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)

7. Denver Broncos (9-6)

8. Indianapolis Colts (6-8)

9. Miami Dolphins (6-8)

10. Cincinnati Bengals (6-8)

Eliminated

11. New York Jets (4-10)

12. Cleveland Browns (3-11)

13. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-11)

14. Tennessee Titans (3-11)

15. New England Patriots (3-11)

16. Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)

The Race for the No. 1 Seed

The Chiefs look all but certain to clinch the No. 1 seed after the win over Houston. They need just one more win (or one Buffalo Bills loss) for that to happen.

Chances are the Bills don't lose. They close the season with a pair of games against the 3-11 New England Patriots and a home matchup against the 4-10 New York Jets.

Kansas City doesn't have a walk in the park to close the season, visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day before heading to Denver to play the 9-6 Broncos on Jan. 5.

The 14-1 Chiefs' only loss was in Buffalo, a 30-21 defeat in which quarterback Josh Allen ran for a 26-yard touchdown with 2:17 left. It's certainly possible those two teams face off again, this time in Kansas City, for the AFC Championship Game.

The AFC North Race

The Steelers and Ravens are now tied for the AFC North lead at 10-5, but Pittsburgh still holds the tiebreaker edge despite the loss. The two teams split the season series, with Pittsburgh defeating Baltimore 18-16 on Nov. 17.

The next tiebreaker is division record, but both teams are 3-2. After that, it's common games, where Pittsburgh has the edge:

Pittsburgh closes the season at home with the Chiefs and then the 6-8 Cincinnati Bengals, a team that ranks fifth in scoring but second-last in points allowed. The Ravens visit the Houston Texans on Christmas Day before hosting the 3-11 Cleveland Browns.

It'll be an exciting race to the finish, but for now, both teams can take satisfaction in being playoff squads.

NFC Standings

Mike Mulholland/Getty Images

NFC Playoff Bracket

1. Detroit Lions (bye)

7. Washington Commanders at 2. Philadelphia Eagles

6. Green Bay Packers at 3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

5. Minnesota Vikings at 4. Los Angeles Rams

NFC Playoff Standings

1. Detroit Lions (12-2; lead NFC North; clinched playoff berth)

2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-2; lead NFC East; clinched playoff berth)

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6; lead NFC South)

4. Los Angeles Rams (8-6; lead NFC West)

Wild Card Race

5. Minnesota Vikings (12-2, clinched playoff berth)

6. Green Bay Packers (10-4)

7. Washington Commanders (9-5)

8. Seattle Seahawks (8-6)

9. Atlanta Falcons (7-7)

10. Arizona Cardinals (7-7)

11. San Francisco 49ers (6-8)

12. Dallas Cowboys (6-8)

13. New Orleans Saints (5-9)

Eliminated

14. Chicago Bears (4-10)

15. Carolina Panthers (3-11)

16. New York Giants (2-12)

Race for the No. 1 Seed

The Detroit Lions still control their own destiny for the NFC's No. 1 seed despite losing 48-42 to the Buffalo Bills last Sunday. However, they'll need to win a pair of road games (at Chicago, at San Francisco) and take down the 12-2 Minnesota Vikings at home to do so. Detroit, of course, could get some help and avoid needing to win three in a row.

However, the 12-2 Philadelphia Eagles look strong right now as winners of 10 straight. They have a tough matchup on Sunday at the 9-5 Washington Commanders but then face the 6-8 Dallas Cowboys and 2-12 New York Giants at home to close the season.

The Vikings won five straight, lost a pair and then ride into Week 16 with seven straight victories. They close the season with a brutal stretch, first at the 8-6 Seattle Seahawks before heading home to host the 10-4 Green Bay Packers. Then they head to Detroit in a game that could decide the division as well as the NFC's No. 1 seed.

NFC South and West Races

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers started 4-2, lost four straight and then won four in a row to move to 8-6, good enough for a one-game edge on the 7-7 Atlanta Falcons. They need a buffer with the Falcons owning the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Bucs by virtue of their season series sweep. Tampa Bay closes at the 6-8 Dallas Cowboys Sunday, but then should be clear favorites at home against the 5-9 New Orleans Saints and 3-11 Carolina Panthers.

The Falcons need to gain a game on the Bucs to win the division, and they've tasked rookie signal-caller Michael Penix Jr. to lead the team in doing so. Penix has a nice warm-up in his first game Sunday at home versus the 2-2 Giants, but it gets much tougher the following Sunday at night against the Commanders. Atlanta then closes at home versus the Panthers.

In the West, the Rams have moved to 8-6 after winning seven of their last nine. That stretch includes a 28-20 victory over the Vikings and a 44-42 win against the 11-3 Buffalo Bills. So this Rams team is legit and very well could win out and clinch the division. They finish the year at the 4-10 New York Jets before hosting the 7-7 Arizona Cardinals and 8-6 Seattle Seahawks.

Speaking of which, Seattle and Arizona are still in it (the 6-8 San Francisco 49ers are mathematically alive as well but need a tremendous amount of help at this juncture). Seattle's recent four-game win streak ended with a thud after the Seahawks fell 30-13 to the Green Bay Packers. Now a tough home matchup with the Vikings awaits before they hit the road against the 4-10 Chicago Bears and the Rams.

Arizona needs some help to win the division at a game behind. Worse yet, the Cardinals don't have the head-to-head tiebreaker against Seattle, who beat Arizona twice earlier this year. The Cardinals do have a win on the Rams, though, and will visit them on Saturday, Dec. 28 in L.A. Arizona was previously in the driver's seat for the division at 6-4 but lost three straight. The Cardinals took care of the New England Patriots, 30-17, though, to move back to .500. They visit the Carolina Panthers before the Rams game and a home date with the San Francisco 49ers.

   

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