SOUTH BEND, Ind. — The strongest analysis can be the simplest.
Entering the first College Football Playoff matchup of 2024, the question was basic. Could the Indiana offense—a prolific unit that struggled against its best competition—handle an elite Notre Dame defense?
It seemed unlikely, given the issues IU encountered in a tight win over Michigan and lopsided loss to Ohio State. Notre Dame, meanwhile, had ceded more than 16 points only twice all season. Outlier performances can happen, but it didn't look great for Indiana on paper.
On a chilly Friday night, it didn't look great on the field, either.
ND's suffocating defense backed up its billing, controlling the rare in-state showdown for a 27-17 triumph over Indiana.
To begin the first quarter, the Irish forced an immediate three-and-out. After a deflected pass led to excellent field position for IU, ball-hawking Notre Dame safety Xavier Watts made a clutch, diving interception near the goal line to thwart a prime scoring chance.
On the first snap of the next drive, Jeremiyah Love raced 98 yards down the left sideline for a lead ND would never relinquish.
From there, we see in hindsight, it was over.
Indiana's next two possessions ended with a punt, and a promising drive before the break stalled in the red zone. The opening half finished with the Hoosiers facing a 17-3 deficit after mustering 138 yards.
Notre Dame continued its dominance right away in the second half, sacking Kurtis Rourke on IU's first offensive snap. Indiana punted on three straight drives—which gained a combined five yards—and the Irish ballooned their lead to an insurmountable 24 points in the process.
Two garbage-time touchdown drives later, the box score doesn't look so dreadful for Rourke and the Hoosiers. But he didn't hit 100 yards passing until deep in the fourth quarter. Indiana found very little success throwing the ball outside of some slants, and the running game was a complete non-factor at 70 yards on 22 non-sack attempts.
The defense, in short, just overwhelmed a talented IU team.
If the Irish can maintain that level, they'll be incredibly tough to beat in the College Football Playoff. They've advanced to face second-seeded Georgia in the Sugar Bowl during the quarterfinals.
Now, don't confuse that for a prisoner-of-the-moment prediction. Notre Dame's offense moved the ball decently enough on a resilient IU team yet remains a concern.
Riley Leonard is still more a QB the Irish are winning with, not because of. He completed 23-of-32 passes for 201 yards, a modest 6.3-yard clip that's even below his 80th-ranked 7.1-yard average in the regular season. That simply won't be good enough against top teams.
In addition, while Love's 98-yard scamper was outstanding, ND trudged to 3.3 yards on its remaining carries. Those things can coexist as a positive—it only takes one run!—and a real topic to monitor.
But, again, this defense is a championship-caliber unit. The next matchup could play into Notre Dame's hands, as well.
Georgia is exceptionally talented as a whole, but starting quarterback Carson Beck is not expected to play in the CFP because of an elbow injury that sidelined him in the SEC Championship Game.
Gunner Stockton, a 4-star prospect in 2022, is a dual-threat with terrific potential. However, he's attempted just 51 passes and never started a game at Georgia. It's only reasonable to say sending him out against such a smart, physical defense is cause for apprehension.
As with Indiana's outlook on Friday in South Bend, outliers can happen. The unexpected, after all, is a staple of college football.
Notre Dame certainly won't be lacking confidence, though.
The front seven is sturdy, evidenced by 10 stops in the backfield on Friday. The secondary—led by Watts, who haunted IU with 10 tackles and an interception—is a sticky unit and rarely gives up explosive plays even without star cornerback Benjamin Morrison.
History is littered with examples about the value of an elite unit, and there is genuinely not a weakness on ND's defense. This performance sent a clear warning to the rest of the programs in the CFP.
The competition level only increases from here, but the Irish have a rock-solid foundation to trust.
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