It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas—and the stretch run to the NFL playoffs.

As Week 16 gets underway, half of the league's 14 postseason spots are spoken for, and three division races are settled—all in the AFC. But there's still a lot of jockeying for position to be done, and a lot that can change over the next three weeks.

The week kicked off with a Thursday night battle at SoFi Stadium between two AFC West teams that have exceeded expectations and are jockeying for wild-card positions: the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos.

That contest went to the home team, with the Chargers prevailing in a back-and-forth 34-27 affair that was the last thing expected from two defenses tied for the NFL lead in points allowed entering Week 16.

On Saturday, the Kansas City Chiefs made another step toward claiming the AFC's No. 1 seed. The Houston Texans lost another key offensive playmaker.

Meanwhile, the AFC North is up for grabs after the Baltimore Ravens beat the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Ravens have significantly improved in one key area, and the Steelers miss their top perimeter playmaker.

Sunday's slate is highlighted by an opportunity for the Philadelphia Eagles to sew up the NFC East in Washington and a meeting in Seattle between two NFC contenders in the Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings.

Sunday night, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will try to move a step closer to another NFC South title and end the Dallas Cowboys' slim playoff hopes.

By the time the dust settles on Week 16, the postseason picture will have cleared significantly. And just as they do every week, Bleacher Report NFL analysts Gary Davenport, Kristopher Knox, Maurice Moton and Brent Sobleski are here to break down all of Week 16's most impactful happenings with the biggest takeaways from every game.

Baltimore Ravens 34, Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Steelers Are a One-And-Done Playoff Team Without George Pickens

The Pittsburgh Steelers cannot overlook the elephant in the room. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith can cleverly scheme up plays for their running backs and tight ends, but the Steelers need wide receiver George Pickens back on the field to win in the playoffs.

Pickens has missed the last three games because of a hamstring injury, and the Steelers' passing production has taken a nosedive. In his absence, quarterback Russell Wilson has averaged just 167.6 passing yards per game.

Mike Williams is still finding his way in the Steelers offense since the team acquired him from the New York Jets before the November 5 trade deadline. Calvin Austin III is a solid receiver who can line up in the slot and out wide, but he's not on the same tier as Pickens as an all-around playmaker.

Without Pickens, the Steelers scored 27 points against the three-win Cleveland Browns, but they failed to eclipse 17 points in matchups with the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens, two playoff-caliber opponents.

Fortunately for the Steelers, who have already clinched a playoff berth, the postseason is a few weeks away, but they need Pickens back before the Wild Card Round.

Ravens Can Close Playoff Games with Much-Improved Pass Defense

With a win over the Steelers on Saturday, the Ravens punched their ticket to playoffs and still have a chance to win the AFC North.

In the postseason, Baltimore can close games in two ways. Running back Derrick Henry could drain the clock with his angry runs between tackles, or Baltimore's defense can make crucial stops and force turnovers.

The Ravens are allowing the fewest rushing yards per game. Coming into Week 16, their pass defense ranked 31st in yards allowed, but that's a misleading statistic.

Over the last five weeks, Baltimore hasn't allowed more than 217 passing yards in a game, allowing an average of 178.6 yards through the air.

Playoff teams can beat opponents in multiple ways, but those clubs can also seal victories on either side of the ball.

With an improved pass defense over the past month, Baltimore has no clear weakness on its roster heading into the playoff as either the AFC North champion or a wild-card team. The Ravens can win scoring shootouts or slow down opponents in low-scoring slugfests.

Kansas City Chiefs 27, Houston Texans 19

Texans' Mounting Offensive Injuries Will Weigh Heavy on Them in Playoffs

Last week, the Houston Texans clinched a playoff berth, though they can still finish as high as the No. 2 seed in the AFC with an 11-6 record because of their Week 5 win over the Buffalo Bills (11-3).

But after a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Texans may want to focus on getting to the playoffs as healthy as possible.

On Saturday, the Texans likely lost wideout Tank Dell for the rest of the campaign. He left GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in an ambulance. After he hauled in a touchdown pass, his teammate Jared Wayne inadvertently rammed into his knee. Offensive tackle Blake Fisher and guard Shaq Mason also suffered injuries. Mason didn't return to action.

Dell struggled to make an impact in stretches this year, but he was looking to make more plays down the stretch (h/t KPRC2 Houston's Aaron Wilson). In his absence, wideout John Metchie III, who sat out with a shoulder injury, could take on a bigger role in the passing game. Remember, Stefon Diggs is out for the season with a torn ACL.

As for the injury question at guard, Kendrick Green could fill in if Mason can't suit up. Remember, interior offensive lineman Juice Scruggs didn't play against the Chiefs because of a foot injury.

The Texans may have to rely on the quick passing game with an injury-riddled receiver group and a banged-up offensive line. Running back Joe Mixon should be the focal point of the offense.

Patrick Mahomes' Ankle Is Fine, Chiefs Poised to Claim AFC's No. 1 Seed

The Chiefs are one win or a Buffalo Bills loss away from home-field advantage on the AFC side of the playoff bracket.

This week, Patrick Mahomes gave Chiefs fans a scare with his ankle injury, but he moved around well, scrambling for 33 yards and a touchdown.

Wideout Hollywood Brown's return from shoulder surgery uplifted Kansas City's passing attack. In his regular-season debut with the team, he caught five passes for 45 yards.

The Chiefs racked up 375 total yards against the Texans' fourth-ranked defense and eclipsed 21 points for the first time since Week 12.

Aside from defensive tackle Chris Jones' calf injury, the Chiefs are trending in the right direction as they close in on the AFC's No. 1 seed. They're positioned to be on a favorable pathway to a historic three-peat.

Los Angeles Chargers 34, Denver Broncos 27

Harbaugh-Herbert Are Combo No One Wants to Face in Wild Card Round

In October, Los Angeles Chargers tight end Hayden Hurst said first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh and franchise quarterback Justin Herbert seemed to be meshing well.

"It is a little bit of a bromance," he told reporters. "I think Jim wants to really emulate Justin. He's got all the physical traits that Jim said he doesn't have, so it's kind of funny. I think they complement each other well."

Harbaugh's fingerprints are all over this team already. But after the Chargers beat the rival Broncos in a matchup with major wild-card implications, it's clear it's the combination of quarterback and coach that makes the Bolts a nightmare matchup as the AFC's (likely) sixth seed.

Herbert's numbers have dropped, but that's by design in Harbaugh's offense. The late scoring strike that salted the game away gave the signal-caller 284 passing yards for the night, and he may well need more moving forward. One long Gus Edwards run covered up the reality that the Chargers miss running back J.K. Dobbins tremendously.

But Herbert continues to shine in Harbaugh's offense. He's efficient. He's confident. And when a play needs to be made, he makes it.

Say what you will about Harbaugh: the oddball quotes, his exit from Michigan. But he wins.

The Chargers aren't the best team in the AFC, or even the second- or third-best. But no one wants them coming to town in Round 1.

The Denver Broncos Aren't Quite Ready for Prime Time

Thursday night, the Denver Broncos had an opportunity to not only seize control of the AFC's sixth seed but also send a message to the conference's other contenders.It was an opportunity squandered, but all it really did was tell us what we already knew: The Broncos are a vastly improved team.

They will still probably make the postseason, but they are no threat to the AFC heavyweights. They never really were.

And that's not such a bad thing.

This was a team from which nothing was expected in 2024, not with a rookie at the helm in Bo Nix. But after a bumpy start, he has been exactly what Sean Payton wanted him to be. Against the Chargers, the 24-year-old threw for 263 yards and two scores, and he didn't make costly mistakes.

Those came in the form of ill-timed defensive lapses and costly penalties. But both underscore just how young much of this team is. Denver needs better linebacker play, but the defense is already a strength, with edge-rusher Nik Bonitto spearheading an excellent line.

Here's what's going to happen—and frankly, it's the same thing that will happen to the Chargers team that just beat Denver.

The Broncos will hit the road in the Wild Card Round to face one of the AFC's top-three teams, and they will lose in a nail-biter.

Then a Denver team with a good core on both sides of the ball for the first time in a long time will hit the offseason and start filling in blanks.

And maybe, just maybe, the Kansas City Chiefs won't walk away with the AFC West in 2025.

Week 16 Schedule

Here's a look at the rest of the Week 16 schedule.

Sunday, December 22

• New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons: 1 p.m.

• Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers: 1 p.m.

• Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 1 p.m.

• Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: 1 p.m.

• Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets: 1 p.m.

• Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders: 1 p.m.

• Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 1 p.m.

• Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks: 4:05 p.m.

• New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: 4:25 p.m.

• Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders: 4:25 p.m.

• San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins: 4:25 p.m.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys: 8:20 p.m.

Monday, December 23

• New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers: 8:15 p.m.