It's true that with Max Fried, Blake Snell, Garrett Crochet and more off the board, MLB's offseason market is not as well stocked with starting pitching as it used to be.
Corbin Burnes is still out there, though. Ditto for fellow free agents Jack Flaherty and Sean Manaea and trade options like Dylan Cease, Luis Castillo and...
You know what, let's just cut to the chase and rank the 10 best starters left on the free-agent and trade markets.
These rankings are meant to capture the general desirability of the given pitcher. Youth is good. Youth plus talent is better.
We're otherwise going to separate guys from their potential price tags. Because, frankly, arguing about, say, whether trading for one year of Cease is preferable to signing Burnes to a long-term deal is a good way to get lost in the weeds.
Along the way, we'll make predictions for what will happen with all 10 pitchers.
10. Free Agent: RHP Walker Buehler
Age: 30
2024 Stats: 16 G, 16 GS, 75.1 IP, 89 H (16 HR), 64 K, 28 BB, 5.38 ERA
Qualifying Offer: No
Walker Buehler was one of the top pitchers in MLB between 2018 and 2021, pitching to a 2.82 ERA with 4.5 times as many strikeouts as walks.
He isn't this guy anymore. And yet, maybe he could be again?
It's hard to say for sure because of Buehler's uninspiring recent track record. He had his second Tommy John surgery in 2022, which followed a 12-start run in which he had a 4.02 ERA. He didn't exactly return to form in the regular season this year.
On the plus side, Buehler ran an average fastball of 95.0 mph with one of the best breaking balls on the Los Angeles Dodgers. And in the end, his 10 straight scoreless innings were a big reason they won the World Series.
Buehler is to this year's market what Jack Flaherty was to the 2023-24 market. He doesn't offer much in the way of certainty, but his history and his future upside make him a compelling target on a one-year deal or a long-term contract with opt-outs.
Prediction: Signs with Chicago Cubs for 3 years, $45 million with opt-outs after 2025, 2026
9. Trade Target: LHP Ranger Suárez
Age: 29
2024 Stats: 27 GS, 150.2 IP, 140 H (14 HR), 145 H, 41 BB, 3.46 ERA
2025 Status: 3rd-year arbitration eligible
The Phillies have been open about wanting to shake things up this winter, and they can do so in ways that don't involve trading Alec Bohm or Nick Castellanos.
They have also been shopping Ranger Suárez, according to Matt Gelb of The Athletic. The lefty is fresh off an All-Star season and projected to earn $8.9 million in his last season before free agency.
Suárez has been known to go on dominant runs, including when he had a 1.36 ERA across 106 innings in 2021 and, more recently, when he had a sub-2.00 ERA after 15 starts this year.
The lefty inevitably strayed from that path, but interested parties can still look at him and see a reliably above-average starter. As he's a ground ball magnet with a 53.4 GB% since 2022, he should especially appeal to teams that play strong infield defense.
The Phillies almost certainly won't trade Suárez unless they get someone who can help them now. To this end, an ideal trade would involve a center fielder going to Philly.
Prediction: Stays with Phillies
8. Trade Target: RHP Mitch Keller
Age: 28
2024 Stats: 31 GS, 178.0 IP, 182 H (23 HR), 166 K, 50 BB, 4.25 ERA
2025 Status: Year 2 of 5-year, $77 million contract
The Pirates aren't necessarily shopping Mitch Keller, but Noah Hiles and Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette report that they're willing to listen on him.
It's an interesting about-face, given that Keller is only one year into the extension he signed in February. Yet this is a team in need of a bat, and it's highly unlikely that Bucs owner Bob Nutting will pay for one in free agency.
By way of a 103 ERA+, Keller has been a slightly above-average pitcher over the last seasons. Arguably the best thing he's had going for him is durability, as he's averaged 31 starts and logged 531.1 innings in this span.
The potential for better results is there, however. Keller sits in the mid-90s with his fastball, with a three-pronged breaking ball mix (sweeper, slider, curveball) that offers some swing-and-miss upside.
Keller alone probably isn't worth a superstar-type hitter in a trade. But if the Bucs can turn him into a viable regular with power, they'll need to consider it.
Prediction: Stays with Pirates
7. Free Agent: LHP Sean Manaea
Age: 32
2024 Stats: 32 G, 32 GS, 181.2 IP, 134 H (21 HR), 184 K, 63 BB, 3.47 ERA
Qualifying Offer: Yes
The turning point of Sean Manaea's 2024 season happened when he watched Chris Sale pitch at Citi Field and had a light bulb go off.
After that, Manaea started throwing like the eventual NL Cy Young Award winner. In fact, the resemblance became downright uncanny:
What matters, of course, is that it worked. Manaea went from having a good season to a great one, ultimately posting a 3.09 ERA with a 4.6 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last 12 starts.
As he was only in the 54th percentile for whiff rate, Manaea isn't on Sale's level when it comes to being overpowering. Nonetheless, he represents a solid bet to age well on account of how he can beat hitters through sheer variation. He has six pitches and his new delivery makes it that much harder for hitters to track the ball.
If Yusei Kikuchi can get three years, $63 million on this market, Manaea should be in for at least that much.
Prediction: Re-signs with New York Mets for 3 years, $75 million
6. Free Agent: RHP Jack Flaherty
Age: 29
2024 Stats: 28 G, 28 GS, 162.0 IP, 135 H (24 HR), 194 K, 38 BB, 3.17 ERA
Qualifying Offer: No
There were times in 2024 that Jack Flaherty pitched like a No. 1, and other times when he did not.
Flaherty had a 2.95 ERA when the Dodgers acquired him from the Detroit Tigers in July. He also had two very good starts in the playoffs, including a scoreless seven-inning gem in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series.
On the other hand, Flaherty had a more modest 3.58 ERA as a Dodger and walked away from October with a 7.36 ERA to show for the postseason. It also bears mentioning that he had issues with his back in the middle of the season.
Yet even if teams hesitate to look upon Flaherty as a proper No. 1, he still has his selling points. Among them are some stellar peripherals from this year, including a strikeout-to-walk ratio and whiff rate that were both elite.
Especially given that he isn't tied to draft pick compensation, it's possible that Flaherty will score a nine-figure deal. If not, he should at least come close.
Prediction: Signs with Baltimore Orioles for 4 years, $88 million
5. Trade Target: RHP Luis Castillo
Age: 32
2024 Stats: 30 GS, 175.1 IP, 158 H (25 HR), 175 K, 47 BB, 3.64 ERA
2025 Status: Year 3 of 5-year, $108 million deal with 2028 vesting option
Here's how Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic summarized the Mariners' willingness to deal Luis Castillo: "We'll do it, but only if the return makes the team better."
It isn't quite a foolproof concept, but it's possible that Seattle will get what it wants.
Castillo is getting older, and it shows. His average fastball sat just about 1 mph below his career norm this year. His strikeout rate dipped to 24.3 percent, the second-lowest mark of his career.
On the whole, though, Castillo's fastball has been one of the most valuable pitches in baseball over the last two seasons. He's also an iron man, as he's made at least 30 starts five times in his eight seasons in the majors.
Even with $72.5 million remaining on his deal, Castillo could have enough value on his own to fetch a quality bat for Seattle's offense. Maybe even a great one, provided the club is willing to eat some of his contract.
Prediction: Traded to Boston Red Sox
4. Trade Target: LHP Framber Valdez
Age: 31
2024 Stats: 28 GS, 176.1 IP, 140 H (13 HR), 169 K, 55 BB, 2.91 ERA
2025 Status: 3rd-year arbitration eligible
Will the Astros actually trade Framber Valdez in addition to Kyle Tucker? It doesn't sound like it.
"We're not aggressively trying to move him, but we'll listen," Astros GM Dana Brown said Friday after sending Tucker to the Chicago Cubs. "If you're asking me if (I) think we're going to trade Valdez, I don't think we're going to trade Valdez. I think he's a pillar and it's really tough to keep a rotation intact."
Nonetheless, a Valdez trade has to be taken seriously because of the cost the Astros could cut. The lefty is projected to make $17.8 million in 2025.
To be sure, this is bargain money for a guy who's been a top-of-the-rotation mainstay for five seasons. Valdez boasts a 3.12 ERA since 2020, with three times as many strikeouts as walks and the second-most ground-ball outs of any pitcher.
In the Tucker trade, the Astros leveraged a star's walk year for two major leaguers and a top prospect. A Valdez trade could potentially bring back a similar return.
Prediction: Stays with Astros
3. Trade Target: RHP Dylan Cease
Age: 28
2024 Stats: 33 GS, 189.1 IP, 137 H (18 HR), 224 K, 65 BB, 3.47 ERA
2025 Status: 3rd-year arbitration eligible
It doesn't seem as if the Padres want to trade Dylan Cease, but Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that they are "at least exploring" the righty's trade value.
Said value can only go so high because of Cease's circumstances for 2025. He's projected to earn $13.7 million, after which he'll be eligible for free agency. As such, he's a semi-expensive rental.
Then again, his credentials speak for themselves.
Cease was the runner-up in the 2022 AL Cy Young Award voting and he finished fourth in the NL voting this year. His ERA for the last four seasons is a sturdy 3.52, and it comes with 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings. His pure stuff is among the best in the sport.
If not for an established star, the Padres could probably swap Cease for a top-level prospect or two. Either way, they could use a trade to try to improve at catcher or in the outfield.
Prediction: Traded to Cleveland Guardians
2. Amateur Free Agent: RHP Roki Sasaki
Age: 23
2024 Stats (NPB): 18 G, 111.0 IP, 83 H (2 HR), 129 K, 32 BB, 2.35 ERA
Roki Sasaki has more long-term upside than any pitcher on the market, and it's not close.
This feels a little like stating the obvious, but let's agree that Sasaki's upside is simultaneously very real and decidedly abstract. We can't really judge him as a major league pitcher until he throws at least one pitch in the major leagues.
What we do know, however, is that Sasaki is a 23-year-old with a triple-digit fastball and at least one devastating secondary in the form of his splitter.
As he's not yet 25, Sasaki is merely an amateur free agent and therefore only entitled to what teams can offer from their international bonus pools. Those range from $4.1 million to $7.6 million.
Every team in MLB should make an attempt to sign Sasaki, but he figures to sign with one that can promise success and endorsement opportunities. As reported by Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, the expectation is that he'll sign with either the Dodgers or Padres.
Prediction: Signs with Padres for $6.3 million signing bonus
1. Free Agent: RHP Corbin Burnes
Age: 30
2024 Stats: 32 GS, 194.1 IP, 165 H (22 HR), 181 K, 48 BB, 2.92 ERA
Qualifying Offer: Yes
If there's a Mirror Universe version of Roki Sasaki on the market, it's Corbin Burnes.
On the one hand, he's past 30 and his best days are likely behind him. Since peaking at 36.7 in 2020, his strikeout rate has fallen all the way to 23.1 percent.
On the other hand, this is literally Corbin Burnes we're talking about.
He won the NL Cy Young Award in 2021 and he has a 2.87 ERA as a starter for the last five seasons. By two versions of WAR, he's second only to Zack Wheeler in value since he moved into the Milwaukee Brewers' rotation in August 2020.
As for Burnes' diminishing ability to miss bats, perhaps it's less as a problem and more a sign of the times. He sees hitters doing more to make contact with two strikes, and even he's content to chase ground-ball outs.
You could therefore make the case that he's already aging gracefully, which is to say nothing of how he's never been on the injured list with an arm or shoulder injury.
Prediction: Signs with San Francisco Giants for 8 years, $250 million
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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