It's crunch time in the NFL for teams with playoff aspirations. Only three weeks remain in the regular season, and half of the league's playoff spots remain up for grabs.
There will be no shortage of on-field drama in Week 16, which will kick off with a Thursday night showdown between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers.
Fans looking to add a bit more excitement to the proceedings may consider making a few box score bets. While most player props won't be available until later in the week, we've uncovered a few enticing wagering opportunities based on the early Week 16 lines.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Justin Herbert Over 228.5 Passing Yards
The Chargers fell flat against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 15, failing in just about every phase. The defense coughed up 40 points, while the offense tallied just 206 total yards.
Though he'll face a talented Denver defense ranked third in net yards per pass attempt, we still like the over for Justin Herbert's passing prop. Herbert is -115 (bet $115 to win $100) to hit the over, and he should.
This is largely because with J.K. Dobbins still sidelined, the Chargers don't have much hope of moving the ball on the ground. They rushed for just 32 yards on Sunday and will face a Broncos defense ranked second in yards per carry allowed.
Herbert was also hampered by ankle and thigh injuries in Week 15 and should be just a bit healthier on Thursday. He may also catch a bit of a break, as star Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II is dealing with an ankle sprain—though, it's considered minor, according to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport.
While Herbert may not have a great game, a high-volume approach should push him past the over/under line.
Marvin Mims Jr. Over 2.5 Receptions
The Broncos didn't generate much offense themselves in Week 15, though they did see another strong outing from second-year receiver Marvin Mims Jr. The Oklahoma product provided an explosive 61-yard punt return after tallying 108 yards and a touchdown in his previous game.
Mims is starting to gain the trust of rookie quarterback Bo Nix and the attention of his teammates.
"Dude is a playmaker," defensive end John Franklin-Myers said, per Aric DiLalla of the team's official website. "You put the ball in his hands, he's going to do what he does."
Expect head coach Sean Payton to continue finding ways to get Mims involved. This is a big reason why we like the over for Mims' receptions at +130 (bet $100 to win $130).
Denver knows that Mims is a big play waiting to happen, and he's become a much bigger part of the offense over the last month. He's caught at least three passes in three straight games, and he should be heavily targeted in a critical matchup against a bitter division rival.
Khalil Mack Over 0.25 Sacks
The Broncos have done a solid job of protecting Nix this season, and the mobile rookie is quite capable of getting himself out of a jam. However, we like Khalil Mack's chances of recording at least a half-sack on Thursday night.
Mack is +130 to hit the over.
While the 33-year-old has only recorded a half-sack over the past month, he has five quarterback takedowns on the year to go with 19 quarterback pressures, according to Pro Football Reference. He's also eager to put Sunday's loss in the rear view and make a statement against Denver.
"Gotta bring some energy, some juice, Mack told reporters. "Got to see it from the first play ...Looking forward to Denver."
Nix was sacked twice the last time he faced the Chargers, a 23-16 loss in Denver. Our guess is that he goes down a couple more times in the rematch, with Mack notching at least a piece of a sack.
Buccaneers and Cowboys Over 48 Total Points
Everyone loves a good back-and-forth offensive battle, and that's what we're likely to see when the Buccaneers face the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night.
While Tampa's defense did find some success against the Chargers, it hasn't been particularly good in 2024. It ranks 27th in yards allowed and 19th in points allowed. Dallas' offense hasn't been as potent without Dak Prescott, but it should be able to find points against the Bucs.
Cooper Rush, CeeDee Lamb, Rico Dowdle and the rest of the Cowboys offense found plenty of success against the Carolina Panthers in Week 15, racking up 410 yards and 30 points.
Dallas' defense, though, has struggled and has been particularly bad against the run (29th in yards per carry allowed). Against a potent Tampa rushing attack led by Bucky Irving and Rachaad White, that's a problem.
Expect a few big plays from Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans as well, as the Bucs look to keep pace in an offensive track meet. The over/under for total points is too low and will likely go up in the coming days.
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